02-04-2025
A Russian Jet Just Bombed A Russian Dam With A Thermobaric Munition
A Russian thermobaric bomb strikes a dam in Belgorod.
Effective Ukrainian radio jamming has blunted Russia's advantage in precision glide bombs by blocking the signals between the bombs and their navigation satellites—often causing the bombs to veer off target.
That jamming may not extend very deep into Russia, however. Which may explain why, on or just before Tuesday, a Russian air force fighter was able to accurately strike a dam near Ukrainian positions in Belgorod Oblast in western Russia.
The dam holds back a river near Popovka, a border settlement in Belgorod. Shortly after retreating from neighboring Kursk Oblast after their supply lines were severed in February, Ukrainian brigades launched a shallow incursion into Belgorod that continues weeks later.
The fighting in the oblast is currently concentrated in Popovka and nearby Demidovka, both largely under Ukrainian control as of late March. According to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, Russian troops counterattacked and marched back into Demidovka on or before Wednesday.
Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighters have been supporting the Ukrainian forces in Belgorod, primarily by bombing bridges carrying Russian reinforcements into the oblast.
A Ukrainian warplane bombs a Russian bridge.
But the Russians are bombing right back. The Tuesday raid reportedly involved a new ODAB-500, a precision-guided thermobaric munition that spreads a flammable aerosol and then ignites it. 'The Russian air force helps repel the enemy's offensive with ODAB air bomb strikes, destroying the approach paths of the occupiers to Popovka,' one Russian blogger crowed.
The 1,100-pound ODAB-500 is an odd choice for a dam-busting raid, as its thermobaric effect is most damaging to human bodies—especially human bodies in confined spaces.
To bust open a dam and flood the surrounding area, you'd want to hit the dirt and concrete with an earth-penetrating high-explosive munition. A very big one. This kind of bomb is, in a sense, the very opposite of a flimsy thermobaric bomb.
That may imply that the target of the Tuesday attack wasn't the dam itself—it was any Ukrainian troops in the open near the dam, or hiding in nearby trenches or bunkers.
It's unfortunate for them that the radio jamming that protects so many other Ukrainians apparently doesn't extend into Belgorod. If the jamming does extend into Belgorod, it at least failed to throw off that one ODAB-500.
