Latest news with #OLPX
Yahoo
12-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Olaplex (OLPX) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why
What Happened? Shares of hair care company Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) jumped 3.8% in the afternoon session after the release of a favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation cooling more than anticipated. The July report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, just below the 2.8% economists had forecast. This suggests that price pressures on consumers may be easing. Particularly beneficial for the sector was the news that the food index remained flat, with grocery prices even declining by 0.1% month-over-month. This development is seen as a positive for the profitability of food, beverage, and personal care companies, as lower input costs and increased consumer purchasing power could boost sales. A Federal Reserve official's comments on the same day, noting that consumer spending fundamentals remain solid, further bolstered investor confidence in the sector's resilience. After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $1.35, up 1.9% from previous close. Is now the time to buy Olaplex? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. What Is The Market Telling Us Olaplex's shares are extremely volatile and have had 51 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today's move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock dropped 8.7% on the news that the company's second-quarter 2025 earnings report revealed a mixed performance, as its first revenue growth in nine quarters surpassed expectations, overshadowing a swing to a net loss. The premium hair care company's net sales increased 2.3% year-over-year to $106.3 million, beating analyst forecasts and marking its first positive sales growth in nine quarters. However, this top-line beat was contrasted by deteriorating profitability. The company swung to a GAAP loss of $0.01 per share, which was in line with analysts' estimates but down from a profit of $0.01 per share in the same quarter last year. The decline in profitability was driven by a significant drop in its operating margin, which fell to -1.1% from 15.7% a year ago, as expenses like marketing and administrative overhead increased. Despite the lower profitability, investors appeared to focus on the better-than-expected revenue and the return to growth, which sent shares higher. Olaplex is down 20.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $1.35 per share, it is trading 48.5% below its 52-week high of $2.62 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Olaplex's shares at the IPO in September 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $55.10. Unless you've been living under a rock, it should be obvious by now that generative AI is going to have a huge impact on how large corporations do business. While Nvidia and AMD are trading close to all-time highs, we prefer a lesser-known (but still profitable) semiconductor stock benefiting from the rise of AI. Click here to access our free report on our favorite semiconductor growth story. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 Reasons to Sell OLPX and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Shareholders of Olaplex would probably like to forget the past six months even happened. The stock dropped 27.3% and now trades at $1.25. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation. Is there a buying opportunity in Olaplex, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it's free. Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why OLPX doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own. A company's long-term performance is an indicator of its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Over the last three years, Olaplex's demand was weak and its revenue declined by 14.2% per year. This was below our standards and signals it's a low quality business. Analyzing the change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions. Sadly for Olaplex, its EPS declined by 40.1% annually over the last three years, more than its revenue. This tells us the company struggled because its fixed cost base made it difficult to adjust to shrinking demand. Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king. As you can see below, Olaplex's margin dropped by 16.1 percentage points over the last year. If its declines continue, it could signal increasing investment needs and capital intensity. Olaplex's free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 22.8%. We see the value of companies helping consumers, but in the case of Olaplex, we're out. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 17.5× forward P/E (or $1.25 per share). At this valuation, there's a lot of good news priced in - we think there are better stocks to buy right now. We'd suggest looking at an all-weather company that owns household favorite Taco Bell. Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs. While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years. Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) Reports Upbeat Q1 But Stock Drops
Hair care company Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) reported Q1 CY2025 results topping the market's revenue expectations , but sales fell by 1.9% year on year to $96.98 million. The company's full-year revenue guidance of $420.5 million at the midpoint came in 0.6% above analysts' estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0 per share was in line with analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy Olaplex? Find out in our full research report. Revenue: $96.98 million vs analyst estimates of $93.34 million (1.9% year-on-year decline, 3.9% beat) EPS (GAAP): $0 vs analyst estimates of $0 (in line) Adjusted EBITDA: $25.66 million vs analyst estimates of $22.62 million (26.5% margin, 13.4% beat) The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $420.5 million at the midpoint Operating Margin: 8.7%, down from 19.8% in the same quarter last year Market Capitalization: $885.5 million Amanda Baldwin, OLAPLEX's Chief Executive Officer, commented: "We had a solid start to the year as the quarter marked continued progress on our transformation and our Bonds and Beyond strategy, with first quarter sales coming in ahead of our expectations. As we look ahead, we believe in our ability to navigate the dynamic environment and will continue to invest behind our strategic priorities." Rising to fame on TikTok because of its 'bond building" hair products, Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) offers products and treatments that repair the damage caused by traditional heat and chemical-based styling goods. A company's long-term performance is an indicator of its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. With $420.7 million in revenue over the past 12 months, Olaplex is a small consumer staples company, which sometimes brings disadvantages compared to larger competitors benefiting from economies of scale and negotiating leverage with retailers. As you can see below, Olaplex's demand was weak over the last three years. Its sales fell by 14.2% annually, a poor baseline for our analysis. This quarter, Olaplex's revenue fell by 1.9% year on year to $96.98 million but beat Wall Street's estimates by 3.9%. Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to remain flat over the next 12 months. Although this projection suggests its newer products will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below the sector average. Unless you've been living under a rock, it should be obvious by now that generative AI is going to have a huge impact on how large corporations do business. While Nvidia and AMD are trading close to all-time highs, we prefer a lesser-known (but still profitable) stock benefiting from the rise of AI. Click here to access our free report one of our favorites growth stories. Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king. Olaplex has shown terrific cash profitability, driven by its lucrative business model that enables it to reinvest, return capital to investors, and stay ahead of the competition. The company's free cash flow margin was among the best in the consumer staples sector, averaging an eye-popping 35.3% over the last two years. We were impressed by how Olaplex beat analysts' revenue and EBITDA expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its gross margin missed. Zooming out, we think this was a solid print. The market seemed to be hoping for more, and the stock traded down 6.8% to $1.23 immediately following the results. So should you invest in Olaplex right now? The latest quarter does matter, but not nearly as much as longer-term fundamentals and valuation, when deciding if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it's free. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLPX) Trading At A 37% Discount?
Olaplex Holdings' estimated fair value is US$1.93 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Olaplex Holdings is estimated to be 37% undervalued based on current share price of US$1.22 Analyst price target for OLPX is US$1.98, which is 2.5% above our fair value estimate Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLPX) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. We've discovered 2 warning signs about Olaplex Holdings. View them for free. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$70.4m US$94.0m US$97.7m US$91.5m US$88.1m US$86.6m US$86.3m US$86.7m US$87.8m US$89.3m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -6.39% Est @ -3.65% Est @ -1.73% Est @ -0.38% Est @ 0.56% Est @ 1.21% Est @ 1.67% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% US$64.9 US$79.9 US$76.5 US$66.0 US$58.6 US$53.1 US$48.7 US$45.2 US$42.1 US$39.5 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$575m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$89m× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.8%) = US$1.6b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= US$706m The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$1.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Olaplex Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.327. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Olaplex Holdings Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Opportunity Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years. Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Olaplex Holdings, we've put together three relevant aspects you should further examine: Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Olaplex Holdings (including 1 which is potentially serious) . Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for OLPX's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
18-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Firing on All Cylinders: Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) Q4 Earnings Lead the Way
The end of an earnings season can be a great time to discover new stocks and assess how companies are handling the current business environment. Let's take a look at how Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) and the rest of the personal care stocks fared in Q4. While personal care products products may seem more discretionary than food, consumers tend to maintain or even boost their spending on the category during tough times. This phenomenon is known as "the lipstick effect" by economists, which states that consumers still want some semblance of affordable luxuries like beauty and wellness when the economy is sputtering. Consumer tastes are constantly changing, and personal care companies are currently responding to the public's increased desire for ethically produced goods by featuring natural ingredients in their products. The 13 personal care stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q4. As a group, revenues beat analysts' consensus estimates by 3.7% while next quarter's revenue guidance was 6.9% below. Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 21.2% since the latest earnings results. Rising to fame on TikTok because of its 'bond building" hair products, Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) offers products and treatments that repair the damage caused by traditional heat and chemical-based styling goods. Olaplex reported revenues of $100.7 million, down 9.8% year on year. This print exceeded analysts' expectations by 14.4%. Overall, it was an incredible quarter for the company with a solid beat of analysts' EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts' EBITDA estimates. Amanda Baldwin, OLAPLEX's Chief Executive Officer, commented: "I am pleased with our end to the year with our fourth quarter results ahead of the expectations we shared in November. During 2024 we laid a critical foundation for our business and brand transformation and I remain confident and optimistic about the strategies put in place as we step into a meaningful year ahead for the business." Olaplex achieved the biggest analyst estimates beat and highest full-year guidance raise of the whole group. Investor expectations, however, were likely higher than Wall Street's published projections, leaving some wishing for even better results (analysts' consensus estimates are those published by big banks and advisory firms, not the investors who make buy and sell decisions). The stock is down 10.9% since reporting and currently trades at $1.22. Is now the time to buy Olaplex? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it's free. Co-founded by actress Jessica Alba, The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST) sells diapers and wipes, skin care products, and household cleaning products. The Honest Company reported revenues of $99.84 million, up 10.6% year on year, outperforming analysts' expectations by 3.1%. The business had a stunning quarter with a solid beat of analysts' EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts' EBITDA estimates. The stock is down 20.7% since reporting. It currently trades at $4.51. Is now the time to buy The Honest Company? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it's free. With a portfolio boasting many household brands, Coty (NYSE:COTY) is a beauty products powerhouse spanning cosmetics, fragrances, and skincare. Coty reported revenues of $1.67 billion, down 3.3% year on year, falling short of analysts' expectations by 3.1%. It was a softer quarter as it posted a miss of analysts' EPS and organic revenue estimates. Coty delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. As expected, the stock is down 32.1% since the results and currently trades at $4.60. Read our full analysis of Coty's results here. With person-to-person marketing and sales rather than selling through retail stores, Nu Skin (NYSE:NUS) is a personal care and dietary supplements company that engages in direct selling. Nu Skin reported revenues of $445.6 million, down 8.8% year on year. This print beat analysts' expectations by 2.2%. Aside from that, it was a slower quarter as it logged revenue guidance for next quarter missing analysts' expectations and a significant miss of analysts' gross margin estimates. The stock is down 14.5% since reporting and currently trades at $5.48. Read our full, actionable report on Nu Skin here, it's free. Named after its founder, who was an entrepreneurial woman from New York with a passion for skincare, Estée Lauder (NYSE:EL) is a one-stop beauty shop with products in skincare, fragrance, makeup, sun protection, and men's grooming. Estée Lauder reported revenues of $4.00 billion, down 6.4% year on year. This result surpassed analysts' expectations by 0.7%. Overall, it was a strong quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts' EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts' EBITDA estimates. The stock is down 34% since reporting and currently trades at $54.62. Read our full, actionable report on Estée Lauder here, it's free. In response to the Fed's rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, inflation has been gradually trending down from its post-pandemic peak, trending closer to the Fed's 2% target. Despite higher borrowing costs, the economy has avoided flashing recessionary signals. This is the much-desired soft landing that many investors hoped for. The recent rate cuts (0.5% in September and 0.25% in November 2024) have bolstered the stock market, making 2024 a strong year for equities. Donald Trump's presidential win in November sparked additional market gains, sending indices to record highs in the days following his victory. However, debates continue over possible tariffs and corporate tax adjustments, raising questions about economic stability in 2025. Want to invest in winners with rock-solid fundamentals? Check out our Hidden Gem Stocks and add them to your watchlist. These companies are poised for growth regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate. Join Paid Stock Investor Research Help us make StockStory more helpful to investors like yourself. Join our paid user research session and receive a $50 Amazon gift card for your opinions. Sign up here.
