Latest news with #Okonjo-Iweala
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India should open way for developing nations: WTO
PARIS: While acknowledging unprecedented disruption of multilateral trading system, WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Tuesday raised the issue of China-backed investment facilitation. While India is opposing this, Okonjo-Iweala wants New Delhi to support the move. "We spoke about issues of reform, about issues that India is interested in, like agriculture and how India needs to be a leader for MC 14 (next year's ministerial meeting)... India needs to open the way for other developing countries, for example, on investment facilitation for development, we want it to support, because so many developing countries, 90 out of the 126, who are members, would like to move with this. But for agriculture, we also need to listen to what India's issues are and try to be as supportive as possible," she said after a meeting with commerce & industry minister Piyush Goyal. India had virtually single-handedly blocked attempts to include investment facilitation as a plurilateral matter under the WTO framework. The comments came ahead of the mini-ministerial meeting of trade ministers later Tuesday. WTO chief said the issue of reform is expected to come up for discussion, at a time when multilateral trading system has been "disrupted in a way it hasn't been before". by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Durable Perforated Stainless Steel Sheets Online – Trusted Suppliers Stainless Steel Sheets | Search ADS Search Now Undo "Sometimes I see challenges as opportunities, and I think this is a very good opportunity for WTO members to look at what are those things that work and should be kept and there are many. For example, three quarters of world goods trade is still taking place on WTO terms, on MFN terms and members want to safeguard that," she said. She said that each member will put their ideas on the table, paving the way for discussions at the next year's ministerial meeting. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
New Straits Times
24-04-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
WTO chief stresses need to learn from history on US push for import substitution
NEW YORK: Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said on Wednesday there is a need to learn from history in regard to the US federal government's push for wholesale re-industrialisation or import substitution, Xinhua reported. Import substitution stories in countries like Brazil and Nigeria did not go so well and "we need to learn from history," Okonjo-Iweala said at a dialogue organised by the Council on Foreign Relations. The United States has to look at not just trade but also technology, which substitutes certain manufacturing jobs, according to Okonjo-Iweala, who is also an economist from Nigeria. "Sometimes, trade is unfairly blamed for things that are due to technology," and there would be more of that substitution from technology, she said. Okonjo-Iweala added that there is a need to retrain the people who are impacted by new approaches and new techniques. She stressed that service jobs pay more than manufacturing jobs while the service sector accounts for about 80 per cent of the US economy. Other countries are looking at how to emulate US strength in innovation and creativity in the service sector, and "this is something you need to safeguard, not destroy because that's the future," said Okonjo-Iweala. Okonjo-Iweala said she can understand the efforts to maintain an edge in some types of manufacturing for security reasons via wholesale industrialisation and import substitution. The WTO chief urged the United States to pay attention to the service sector, which is growing naturally in trade. The international trading system was built for interdependence, not overdependence, and the trade issues between the United States and China are not purely the fault of trade policy, noted Okonjo-Iweala. She again warned of the adverse impacts of potential decoupling of US-China trade given the current high level of tariffs. "That was also a little bit comforting that there may be ways for the two to get to talk to each other and to avoid this situation, that would be very good for the world," she said. Trade is a strong driver of global growth and there is no country that can exist completely by itself in this day and age, Okonjo-Iweala said. "Trade is important because it gives you an outlet and that's what interdependence is about," she said, citing recent US imports of eggs from Türkiye to help solve the egg crisis as an example.
Gulf Today
17-04-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
WTO slashes 2025 trade growth forecast, warns of deeper slump
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) sharply cut its forecast for global merchandise trade from solid growth to a decline on Wednesday, saying further US tariffs and spillover effects could lead to the heaviest slump since the height of the COVID pandemic. The WTO said it expected trade in goods to fall by 0.2% this year, down from its expectation in October of 3.0% expansion. It said its new estimate was based on measures in place at the start of this week. 'I'm very concerned, the contraction in global merchandise trade growth is of big concern,' WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva. US President Donald Trump imposed extra duties on steel and car imports as well as more sweeping global tariffs before unexpectedly pausing higher duties on a dozen economies. His trade war with China has also intensified with tit-for-tat exchanges pushing levies on each other's imports beyond 100%. The WTO said that, if Trump reintroduced the full rates of his broader tariffs that would reduce goods trade growth by 0.6 percentage points, with another 0.8 point cut due to spillover effects beyond US-linked trade. Taken together, this would lead to a 1.5% decline, the steepest drop since 2020. 'If we have contraction in global merchandise the concern is spill over into broad GDP growth. We've seen that the trade concerns can have negative spill overs into financial markets, into other broader areas of the economy,' Okonjo-Iweala added. She also raised alarm about the impact on developing countries. The head of the WTO said her greatest fear was that the economies of China and the US were decoupling from one another. The WTO estimates that merchandise trade between them will fall by 81% - a drop that could have reached 91% without recent exemptions for products such as smartphones. 'A decoupling could have far reaching consequences if it were to contribute to a broader fragmentation of the global economy along geopolitical lines to two isolated blocks,' Okonjo-Iweala said. In this scenario, global GDP could shrink by 7% in the long term, which the director general described as 'significant and substantial'. 'The unprecedented nature of the recent trade policy shifts means that predictions should be interpreted with more caution than usual,' said the WTO, which is also forecasting a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026. 'Forecasting a credible baseline scenario has become virtually impossible,' Hector Torres, a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund, told Reuters. 'The remnants of a deteriorated 'rules-based' trading system are giving way to a capricious 'deals-based' disorder, where any projections hinge on government's capacity to strike bilateral deals with the Trump Administration,' Torres said. Earlier on Wednesday, the U.N. Trade and Development agency said global economic growth could slow to 2.3% as trade tensions and uncertainty drive a recessionary trend. The Geneva-based WTO said disruption of U.S.-China trade was expected to increase Chinese merchandise exports across all regions outside North America by between 4% and 9%. Other countries would have opportunities to fill the gap in the United States in sectors such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment. Services trade, though not subject to tariffs, would also take a hit, the WTO said, by weakening demand related to goods trade such as transport and logistics. Broader uncertainty could dampen spending on travel and investment-related services. The WTO said it expected commercial services trade to grow by 4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, well below baseline projections of 5.1% and 4.8%. The expected downturn follows a strong 2024, when the volume of world merchandise trade grew by 2.9% and commercial services trade expanded by 6.8%. The World Trade organisation says the volume of trade in goods worldwide is likely to decrease by 0.2% this year due to US President Donald Trump's shifting tariff policies and a standoff with China, but it would take a more severe hit if Trump carries through on his toughest 'reciprocal' tariffs. The decline in trade will be particularly steep in North America even without the stiffest tariffs, the global trade forum said Wednesday, with exports there this year expected to fall by 12.6% and imports by 9.6%. The WTO based its report on the tariff situation as of Monday. Initially, 2025 and 2026 were expected to have continued expansion of world trade, but Trump's trade war forced WTO economists to substantially downgrade their forecast, the forum said. Trade in goods worldwide would slump by 1.5% if Trump follows through on his stiffest tariffs on most nations, due to the uncertainty unsettling businesses. Trump suspended the toughest set of tariffs for 90 days earlier this month so more than 70 countries have a chance to address US trade concerns. Meanwhile, he is increasing taxes on Chinese imports to 145% and engaging in a lengthy back and forth with Canada and Mexico about tariffs on their goods. Despite the 90-day pause, 'the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular,' WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in a statement. Reuters
Express Tribune
17-04-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
WTO warns of deeper slump amid trade war
Listen to article The World Trade Organisation sharply cut its forecast for global merchandise trade from solid growth to a decline on Wednesday, saying further US tariffs and spillover effects could lead to the heaviest slump since the height of the Covid pandemic. The WTO said it expected trade in goods to fall by 0.2% this year, down from its expectation in October of 3.0% expansion. It said its new estimate was based on measures in place at the start of this week. "I'm very concerned, the contraction in global merchandise trade growth is of big concern," WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva. US President Donald Trump imposed extra duties on steel and car imports as well as more sweeping global tariffs before unexpectedly pausing higher duties on a dozen economies. His trade war with China has also intensified with tit-for-tat exchanges pushing levies on each other's imports beyond 100%. The WTO said that, if Trump reintroduced the full rates of his broader tariffs that would reduce goods trade growth by 0.6 percentage points, with another 0.8 point cut due to spillover effects beyond US-linked trade. Taken together, this would lead to a 1.5% decline, the steepest drop since 2020. "If we have contraction in global merchandise the concern is spill over into broad GDP growth. We've seen that the trade concerns can have negative spill overs into financial markets, into other broader areas of the economy," Okonjo-Iweala added. She also raised alarm about the impact on developing countries. The head of the WTO said her greatest fear was that the economies of China and the US were de-coupling from one another. The WTO estimates that merchandise trade between them will fall by 81% — a drop that could have reached 91% without recent exemptions for products such as smartphones. "A decoupling could have far reaching consequences if it were to contribute to a broader fragmentation of the global economy along geopolitical lines to two isolated blocks," Okonjo-Iweala said. In this scenario, global GDP could shrink by 7% in the long term, which the director general described as "significant and substantial". "The unprecedented nature of the recent trade policy shifts means that predictions should be interpreted with more caution than usual," said the WTO, which is also forecasting a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026. "Forecasting a credible baseline scenario has become virtually impossible," Hector Torres, a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund, told Reuters. "The remnants of a deteriorated 'rules-based' trading system are giving way to a capricious 'deals-based' disorder, where any projections hinge on government's capacity to strike bilateral deals with the Trump Administration," Torres said.
Axios
16-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
The U.S.-China decoupling arrives
What has been a yearslong economic risk is now reality: The tit-for-tat tariffs effectively end U.S.-China bilateral trade, the final step in the economic decoupling of the world's juggernauts. That is the new warning from the World Trade Organization on Wednesday in the release of its latest global outlook. Why it matters: The sudden divorce of the two economies might mean profound pain for American workers and the nation's wealth built on the back of a strong trading relationship. A prolonged trade fight risks splitting the global trading system into two distinct blocs — countries that trade with the U.S. and those that trade with China. Stunning stat: The WTO anticipates trade between the U.S. and China will screech to a halt this year. Trade of merchandise between the two countries will drop by 80%, a drop that would have topped 90% without the White House's recent exemption for smartphones and other tech goods, according to WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. What they're saying:"The drop in U.S.-China trade of the magnitudes we are talking about is virtually tantamount to a decoupling of the two economies," Okonjo-Iweala told reporters Wednesday morning. "This is a phenomenon we've talked about before ... and now we're seeing it emerging," Okonjo-Iweala added. " I think this is one of the most worrying factors for us." The big picture: The total volume of goods traded around the world is expected to contract by 0.2% this year — an abrupt turnaround from the near 3% increase last year. The decline in world trade would be as large as 1.5% in 2025 if President Trump reinstates the reciprocal tariffs that are now on pause. Consider the counterfactual: If both trade and trade-policy uncertainty were low, the WTO says, world trade would grow by 2.7% in 2025. Threat level: The group anticipates the trade slowdown — topped with uncertainty about the tariff endgame — will spill over into weaker global growth. The WTO expects GDP growth will reach 2.2% in 2025, 0.6 percentage point below its initial forecast that did not account for the global trade war. That will nudge up slightly to 2.4% next year, "substandard compared to recent history," it writes in the release. Between the lines: The Trump administration said it would hold trade negotiations with a slew of nations facing reciprocal tariffs over the next 90 days. But China is the exception. The high, country-specific rates have been paused for all countries, though tariffs on China have only increased. What's new: Trump ordered the Commerce Department to investigate America's reliance on critical minerals from other countries. The investigation could further crack down on trade with China, which produces the majority of all critical minerals, many of which are used in defense, energy and electronics sectors. Any tariffs that stem from the investigation would "take the place" of current reciprocal tariff rates, according to the executive order Trump signed Tuesday. What to watch: The WTO says countries should cut back excessive reliance on other trading partners, an admission that Trump-like protectionism is the new threat. "The U.S. has a point when it says too many countries are dependent on its market, or the production of some critical inputs are too concentrated in certain sectors and geographies," Okonjo-Iweala says. "Building global resilience requires interdependence, not over dependence."
