Latest news with #OliverAllen
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Unemployment claims rise to highest level in 8 months, signaling slowdown
Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits last week rose to their highest level in eight months, a sign the labor market might be losing steam as concerns over tariffs take hold of U.S. businesses and consumers. New applications for jobless benefits in the week ending May 31 reached 247,000, up 8,000 from the week prior, data from the Labor Department shows. The figure exceeded economists' predictions of 235,000 claims, according to financial data firm FactSet. Overall filings for unemployment claims remain at historic lows. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of May 24 was 1.9 million, down 3,000 from the week prior. Still, the uptick in initial jobless claims last week is "hard to dismiss," Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, as the climb could point to broader shifts in the workforce ahead of the May jobs report, to be released tomorrow. "Moreover, a relatively weak hiring rate means that the share of newly unemployed workers who are struggling to find a new job quickly is slowly creeping up, too," he said in an email note. "The further downward pressure on hiring from tariff-related uncertainty will add to these growing strains on the jobs market." Jobless claims have mostly floated between 200,000 to 250,000 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 upended the labor market. "Jobless claims continue to rise, but they are rising at a slow pace, so it's a trend worth watching, but too soon to sound the alarm," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. Firings overseen by the Trump Administration's Department of Government Efficiency, commonly known as DOGE, are the leading cause of job cuts in 2025, with over 280,000 federal workers abruptly terminated from jobs so far this year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other signs of potential slowdown A national employment report released yesterday by ADP, a payroll and human resources software provider, found that the U.S. economy added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest pace of hiring since May 2023. "After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement Wednesday. Another sign of a cooling labor market: The number of Americans who quit their jobs fell in April, while layoffs climbed, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's despite the fact job openings for the month increased, reaching 7.4 million in April. Layoffs at large U.S. companies Several major companies have revealed layoffs this year including Walmart, which announced in late May that it was reducing 1,500 employees from its global tech workforce in a bid to increase efficiency rapidly evolving technological advances. On Thursday, Consumer goods retailer Procter & Gamble, the company behind many major household brands including Tide detergent, Bounty paper towels and Pampers diapers, announced this week that it would cut 7,000 employees from its workforce over the next two years, as it competes in an "increasingly challenging environment." Workday, Dow, CNN, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Walt Disney Co., Microsoft and Facebook parent company Meta have also announced layoffs this year. While job cuts by U.S.-based employees were down 12% in May from the previous month, according to new data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, they are up 47% from the same month last year. "Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement firm. Many companies have lowered their sales and profit expectations for 2025 in their recent earnings statements. And consumer confidence remains shaky, despite some signs of relief. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that employers added 130,000 jobs last month, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a low 4.2%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. Sneak peek: Where is Jermain Charlo? What to know about President Trump's travel ban on nationals from 12 countries Hegseth orders Navy to rename USNS Harvey Milk, Jeffries calls it "a complete and total disgrace"
CBS News
4 days ago
- Business
- CBS News
Unemployment claims rise to highest level in 8 months, signaling slowdown in job market
Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits last week rose to their highest level in eight months, a sign the labor market might be losing steam as concerns over tariffs take hold of U.S. businesses and consumers. New applications for jobless benefits in the week ending May 31 reached 247,000, up 8,000 from the week prior, data from the Labor Department shows. The figure exceeded economists' predictions of 235,000 claims, according to financial data firm FactSet. Overall filings for unemployment claims remain at historic lows. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of May 24 was 1.9 million, down 3,000 from the week prior. Still, the uptick in initial jobless claims last week is "hard to dismiss," Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, as the climb could point to broader shifts in the workforce ahead of the May jobs report, to be released tomorrow. "Moreover, a relatively weak hiring rate means that the share of newly unemployed workers who are struggling to find a new job quickly is slowly creeping up, too," he said in an email note. "The further downward pressure on hiring from tariff-related uncertainty will add to these growing strains on the jobs market." Jobless claims have mostly floated between 200,000 to 250,000 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 upended the labor market. "Jobless claims continue to rise, but they are rising at a slow pace, so it's a trend worth watching, but too soon to sound the alarm," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. Firings overseen by the Trump Administration's Department of Government Efficiency, commonly known as DOGE, are the leading cause of job cuts in 2025, with over 280,000 federal workers abruptly terminated from jobs so far this year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other signs of potential slowdown A national employment report released yesterday by ADP, a payroll and human resources software provider, found that the U.S. economy added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest pace of hiring since May 2023. "After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement Wednesday. Another sign of a cooling labor market: The number of Americans who quit their jobs fell in April, while layoffs climbed, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's despite the fact job openings for the month increased, reaching 7.4 million in April. Layoffs at large U.S. companies Several major companies have revealed layoffs this year including Walmart, which announced in late May that it was reducing 1,500 employees from its global tech workforce in a bid to increase efficiency rapidly evolving technological advances. On Thursday, Consumer goods retailer Procter & Gamble, the company behind many major household brands including Tide detergent, Bounty paper towels and Pampers diapers, announced this week that it would cut 7,000 employees from its workforce over the next two years, as it competes in an "increasingly challenging environment." Workday, Dow, CNN, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Walt Disney Co., Microsoft and Facebook parent company Meta have also announced layoffs this year. While job cuts by U.S.-based employees were down 12% in May from the previous month, according to new data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, they are up 47% from the same month last year. "Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement firm. Many companies have lowered their sales and profit expectations for 2025 in their recent earnings statements. And consumer confidence remains shaky, despite some signs of relief. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that employers added 130,000 jobs last month, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a low 4.2%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. contributed to this report.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US private payrolls post smallest gain in over two years in May
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added the fewest number of workers in more than two years in May, but the data is probably not a true reflection of the labor market, which is gradually easing amid economic uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs. Private payrolls increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since March 2023, after a downwardly revised rise of 60,000 in April, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would advance by 110,000 following a previously reported increase of 62,000 in April. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for May that is due to be released on Friday by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports. Government data on Tuesday showed there were 1.03 job openings for every unemployed person in April, little changed from March. "As usual, we suggest ignoring the message from the ADP employment report, mostly because it has had a very poor track record in recent years," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The services sector accounted for nearly all the new jobs last month, with payrolls in that category rising by 36,000. That reflected gains in the financial activities, information as well as leisure and hospitality industries. Goods producing sector payrolls declined by 2,000, pulled down by job losses in the manufacturing and mining industries. "Use ADP only to gauge the big picture," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Right now, that picture shows ADP's private sector employment estimates declining steadily since December." The BLS is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 120,000 jobs in May after advancing by 167,000 in April, a Reuters survey showed. Overall nonfarm payrolls are estimated to have increased by 130,000 jobs after rising by 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 4.2%.
CBS News
16-05-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Consumer confidence falls to lowest level in 3 years amid inflation fears, U. of Michigan index shows
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. edged down in May for a fifth straight month as Americans increasingly worry that President Trump's trade war will worsen inflation. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index, released Friday, declined 2.7% on a monthly basis to 50.8, the lowest reading since July 2022. Since January, sentiment has tumbled nearly 30%, a sign Americans are worried about the economy and their financial prospects, according to economists. "These survey results suggest that consumer spending may be increasingly restrained by caution under the Trump economic agenda," Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at investor advisory firm High Frequency Economics, said in a research note. Weinberg added that the decline in confidence may cause Americans to hold back on purchasing big-ticket items until they have a clearer picture of what's happening in the economy. "Uncertainty usually foments a feeling in households that more saving is a good idea," he added. Less grim than it looks? Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that the U. of Michigan's initial survey likely failed to capture any improvement in sentiment from the U.S. and China agreeing to ease tariffs earlier this week. "[W]e increasingly suspect that the consumer surveys, and the Michigan survey in particular, are painting an unduly negative picture of the consumer outlook at present," Allen said in a report. "Headline retail sales eked out a further small gain in April, following a 1.7% jump in March, despite the recent plunge in confidence. Moreover, most near-real indicators of consumers' discretionary spending on services are holding up well." Trump in April slapped 145% tariffs on all imports from China, a move that effectively froze trade with the U.S.' third-largest trading partner in goods. But on Monday, the two countries said they agreed to lower U.S. tariffs to 30%, while China would cut its duties on U.S. exports to 10% from 125%. Separately, the U.S. earlier this month reached a trade deal with the United Kingdom, although trade experts said the agreement suggests high tariffs are set to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Mr. Trump on Friday said his administration will send letters that inform other nations of the tariff rates the U.S. will impose on imports. "[W]e have, at the same time, 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you're not able to see that many countries," Mr. Trump said during a Friday business roundtable between the U.S. and United Arab Emirates. Americans have largely taken a sour view about where the economy is headed in the wake of the Trump administration's imposition of huge import duties, which threaten to slow growth and push up prices. In recent weeks, the White House has pulled back on its most draconian policies, though average duties are still high by historical standards. In an April CBS News poll, 44% of Americans approved of Mr. Trump's handling of the economy, down from 51% on March 2.
CBS News
16-05-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Consumer confidence falls to lowest level in 3 years amid inflation fears, survey shows
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. edged down in May for a fifth straight month as Americans increasingly worry that President Trump's trade war will worsen inflation. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index, released Friday, declined 2.7% on a monthly basis to 50.8, the lowest reading since July 2022. Since January, sentiment has tumbled nearly 30%, a sign Americans are worried about the economy and their financial prospects, according to economists. "These survey results suggest that consumer spending may be increasingly restrained by caution under the Trump economic agenda," Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at investor advisory firm High Frequency Economics, said in a research note. Weinberg added that the decline in confidence may cause Americans to hold back on purchasing big-ticket items until they have a clearer picture of what's happening in the economy. "Uncertainty usually foments a feeling in households that more saving is a good idea," he added. Less grim than it looks? Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that the U. of Michigan's initial survey likely failed to capture any improvement in sentiment from the U.S. and China agreeing to ease tariffs earlier this week. "[W]e increasingly suspect that the consumer surveys, and the Michigan survey in particular, are painting an unduly negative picture of the consumer outlook at present," Allen said in a report. "Headline retail sales eked out a further small gain in April, following a 1.7% jump in March, despite the recent plunge in confidence. Moreover, most near-real indicators of consumers' discretionary spending on services are holding up well." Trump in April slapped 145% tariffs on all imports from China, a move that effectively froze trade with the U.S.' third-largest trading partner in goods. But on Monday, the two countries said they agreed to lower U.S. tariffs to 30%, while China would cut its duties on U.S. exports to 10% from 125%. Separately, the U.S. earlier this month reached a trade deal with the United Kingdom, although trade experts said the agreement suggests high tariffs are set to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Mr. Trump on Friday said his administration will send letters that inform other nations of the tariff rates the U.S. will impose on imports. "[W]e have, at the same time, 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you're not able to see that many countries," Mr. Trump said during a Friday business roundtable between the U.S. and United Arab Emirates. Americans have largely taken a sour view about where the economy is headed in the wake of the Trump administration's imposition of huge import duties, which threaten to slow growth and push up prices. In recent weeks, the White House has pulled back on its most draconian policies, though average duties are still high by historical standards. In an April CBS News poll, 44% of Americans approved of Mr. Trump's handling of the economy, down from 51% on March 2.
