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Fast Company
04-08-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
What a concussion taught me about leading through a crisis
BY Listen to this Article More info 0:00 / 6:27 A serious concussion four years ago made me more susceptible to future head injuries. Sure enough, a simple bump this winter left me in a months-long funk. My neurologist explained that my nervous system was stuck in an endless cycle of stimulus, unable to move out of fight-or-flight and into the mode of calm, strategic thinking required for recovery. Learning how to consciously switch between these two states, known as the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems, was key to my recuperation —and an unexpected masterclass in adaptive organizational leadership. In today's turbulence, many CEOs are experiencing a version of this neurological trap. Bombarded by geopolitical shocks, disruption from artificial intelligence, and demographic upheaval, many leaders and their teams are stuck in crisis mode. Because they are constantly addressing short-term emergencies, they don't always have time to access the rest-and-digest mode required for imperatives like long-term workforce development. This insight from my concussion is changing not only how I help manage my global consulting firm's think tank, the Oliver Wyman Forum, but also how I help advise Oliver Wyman's corporate clients on creating and implementing workforce strategies. Of course CEOs must address current emergencies—but they can simultaneously build for the future. At the macro/strategic level, they can create cultures of connection and embrace the principles of emotional intelligence. At the micro/tactical level, they can commit to developing tomorrow's leaders via initiatives like reverse mentoring and shadow boards. The key: making time for these efforts even when crises crop up. Prisoners of the moment If some CEOs' innate leadership reflexes are failing, it's because they aren't designed for an era of permacrisis. Today's economic unknowns are near historic levels: Uncertainty right now is comparable to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve. As a result, 43% of CEOs say they are focusing on projects with a time horizon of less than a year, according to a recent survey of CEOs of New York Stock Exchange-listed companies by the Oliver Wyman Forum and the NYSE. Fixating on the short-term can erode confidence among employees. Globally, only 9% of nonmanagerial white-collar employees say they are extremely confident in the ability of their senior leaders to drive growth, and only 19% of employees say they can build a meaningful career at their current company, our surveys show. A deep pool of academic research shows that companies that retain young talent and prioritize development outperform others over the long term in terms of innovation, profitability, and productivity. Likewise, our surveys show that when employees understand the 'why' and see consistent leadership behavior, they're 163% more likely to envision themselves staying at their companies. So how can CEOs master their personal dimmer switch between crisis mode and company building? Create cultures of connection—and double down on EQ Sure, the troops can rally in the short term. But a constant state of permacrisis and dissatisfaction doesn't maximize human potential over the long haul. Our surveys show that only one in five employees are satisfied with their company's leadership, and less than a quarter feel leadership understands the challenges lower-level employees face. If left to fester, such feelings can lead to attrition. Half of employees we surveyed said they have quit a job to get away from a manager, and only 47% say their current manager understands their skills, interests, and gaps. People don't quit companies; they quit the experience of being undervalued and misunderstood. Ironically, personal connection is especially critical in the age of artificial intelligence. Companies might want to go all in on technology, but Generation Z, the cohort of people born between 1997 and 2012, demands emotional intelligence as well. Our surveys show that Gen Zers rank EQ as the second most important leadership trait (54%), after strong communication skills (60%). Microsoft is an example of a culture marked by emotional intelligence, connection, and sense of purpose. Chief Executive Satya Nadella models qualities essential in today's workforce, such as learning fast, collaborating, and doubling down with confidence. He has also pushed for greater empathy and more active listening, encouraging employees to work together, learn from one another as well as from customers, and embrace different perspectives. The result: better morale, increased innovation, and a growth mindset—traits that pay dividends over the long term. Build tomorrow's leaders today One way to show workers they are valued is via targeted leadership development. Some companies have cracked this code by implementing effective mentoring programs for employees of all levels. Others include reverse mentoring, in which younger employees teach experienced leaders. One technology company, for example, has a suite of mentoring programs including one in which younger employees teach managers about digital technology and cultural trends. These programs shortened the time between promotions by 25% and lowered turnover to 0.7%, compared with 2.2% for non-mentored employees. Leaders also can build tomorrow's leaders by creating 'shadow boards,' in which young employees advise senior leaders, offering fresh perspectives and customer insights. Shadow boards serve as alerting mechanisms for cultural shifts and opportunities that traditional leadership hierarchies might miss—and make their contributors feel heard. Always be toggling It's human instinct to barrel ahead, especially during a crisis. But just as I have adjusted my screen time and learned other techniques to recover from my concussion, leaders today need to learn how to toggle between sympathetic urgency and parasympathetic strategy. The key isn't to choose between crisis response and strategic thinking—it's mastering the ability to consciously shift between them, to heal and grow, to go slow and fast, all at once. The early-rate deadline for Fast Company's Most Innovative Companies Awards is Friday, September 5, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply today. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Ana Kreacic is a partner and chief knowledge officer of Oliver Wyman and chief operating officer of the Oliver Wyman Forum. More
Business Times
13-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Grasping the mettle of geopolitics in portfolios
[SINGAPORE] Geopolitical crises and conflicts are springing up with greater frequency; do they warrant action on your portfolio? How should you approach geopolitical risk, if at all? US-China tensions have simmered for years, but US President Donald Trump's tariff salvos against the world have further exacerbated the strains – and not just vis-a-vis China. Some issues may seem to have a straightforward impact on economies and markets. In a tariff-ridden world, for instance, higher-for-longer inflation seems par for the course. Some themes may jump out when war erupts such as higher oil prices and more defence spending. But is it as simple – and reactive – as that? For institutions – and certainly global corporates – which seek to take a longer, forward-looking view, taking geopolitics into account is increasingly seen as crucial for decision-making. A 2025 survey of chief executives by the New York Stock Exchange and Oliver Wyman Forum found that concern over geopolitical risk has surged. Almost 90 per cent of CEOs rated geopolitics, trade policies, tariffs, and industrial policy as a risk to their company, up 20 percentage points from 2024. 'The 'geopolitics-first' approach to business strategy is no longer optional; it's a prerequisite for business outperformance in a new world in which politics drives markets,' Oliver Wyman Forum noted in a paper. JPMorganChase launched a centre for geopolitics recently to advise clients on how to anticipate and respond to the top geopolitical trends including the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). In its inaugural report, chief executive Jamie Dimon wrote that the world is at a 'hinge point' in history. 'Our greatest risk is geopolitical risk. This moment demands clarity, agility, and foresight,' he wrote. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Geopolitics driving 'the great diversification' Amundi, with more than 2.2 trillion euros (S$3.3 trillion) under management, hired a geopolitical strategist in 2022, said Monica Defend, head of Amundi Investment Institute, to enhance its approach to asset allocation. She spoke to The Business Times on the sidelines of Amundi's World Investment Forum in Paris. Amundi seeks to be 'more scientific' in its approach to geopolitics, says Monica Defend, head of Amundi Investment Institute. Its Geopolitical Sentiment Tracker alerts investors to rising risks. PHOTO: AMUNDI Defend said: 'We've experienced crisis after crisis, and the pandemic was a shock that induced a paradigm shift. We recognised that some things became national security issues when we were short of some goods, and this started the global supply chain relocation. 'The new US administration has accelerated this further. We're moving to a polarised way of arranging deals. We've been looking at the potential winners of this new trend – the emerging markets... Asia and Latin America are emerging as new routes for supply chains. This is also creating a new super trend for commodities. 'Geopolitics is exacerbating the movements, whether it's energy transition or trade agreements. We used to focus on economic stability as a component in assessing the economic backdrop of a country. But we want to be more scientific.' Amundi's first initiative was to design a Geopolitical Sentiment Tracker to alert investors to rising risks, said Defend. 'The second thing is to see is if there is some connection between the geopolitical tracker and financial regimes. For us, the assessment of the financial regime is the first step towards asset allocation.' Amundi developed a tool using variables relating to growth, inflation, monetary policy and financial leverage. Five financial regimes or phases – correction, contraction, recovery, late cycle and asset reflation – are found to have persisted. 'The geopolitical evidence helps us to screen asset classes, such as oil, US dollar and gold. We want to be as disciplined as we can in the way we navigate the geopolitical environment, to help us decide what asset classes we want to be on or off, and how to hedge the risk.' The bottom line, based on a paper by Anna Rosenberg, Amundi Investment Institute's head of geopolitics, is the unfolding of what she calls 'The Great Diversification' currently underway. This is evident in a few aspects: The US dollar's share of global reserves is expected to decline from around 58 per cent currently to 55 per cent over the next decade, while the renminbi's share is likely to exceed 5 per cent. Demand for eurozone bonds is rising, and European assets are attracting more capital flows. Gold is at all-time highs. Rosenberg wrote: 'Politics will continue to hit global investors where they are most exposed – in US assets… Winners and losers will not be clear until tariff negotiations and the re-routing process are completed, but Europe is likely to remain a net winner from US uncertainty. 'While political risks remain, Europe is growing more united, as leaders understand they are stronger together than as individual member states… There is momentum towards single and financial market integration and creating an environment that could make the euro more attractive.' A multipolar world: negative for US dollar Marko Papic, BCA Research's chief strategist for 'geomacro', a framework which combines geopolitics and markets, noted in a paper that global asset allocators are scrambling to incorporate geopolitics into strategic asset allocations. But they made the mistake of treating geopolitics as 'exogenous' to the portfolio – that is, as a series of external shocks fundamentally different from the core anchors of valuation, growth and inflation. 'There is nothing exogenous about geopolitics. It is very much endogenous to the macroeconomic and financial assumptions that define the strategic asset allocation,' he wrote. It is a mistake to take the approach of anticipating the future 'end state', he wrote, but instead, 'global allocators need to consider the transition away from American unipolarity'. Until now, most investors have been accustomed to thinking of the world as 'unipolar' with low levels of geopolitical volatility, and where the US has served as the consumer of last resort and the magnet for capital flows. But this is ending, as evidenced in the frequency of armed conflict and rise in defence spending. Together with BCA's global asset allocation team, the geomacro team has created an approach linking geopolitical regimes and asset prices, 'using trade and capital flows as a bridge'. 'The next five to 10 years will be a decade of transition, during which the world will see the global macro imbalances shift.' He posits two multipolar scenarios as most likely – balanced and unbalanced – with negative implications for the US dollar. In either scenario, US assets are expected to underperform due to US dollar devaluation. Both scenarios are positive for the commodities cycle. Asset allocation approaches Meanwhile, the Bank of Singapore (BOS) has rolled out a 'robust optimisation' (RO) technique for strategic asset allocation, which it says is a first for an Asian private bank. The RO aims to help clients build more resilient portfolios at a time of more frequent spikes in volatility and asset correlations. The system, said BOS, does not directly incorporate geopolitics. 'Geopolitics is very hard to quantify. But they still have real effects on the economy. Growing geo-economic fragmentation can disrupt global trade and cause supply shortages, leading to inflation and slower economic growth. We factor these in when making capital market assumptions around expected returns.' With the RO technique, the result is a far more diversified portfolio – with lower exposure to US equities, for instance – that reduces risk and focuses on minimising the potential loss in the worst-case scenario. The approach, however, may sacrifice some market return in favour of resilience. DBS chief investment officer Hou Wey Fook said geopolitical tensions have long-term implications for portfolios, particularly through a sustained increase in infrastructure and defence spending. The bank highlighted these in its latest market insight publication. In its asset allocation framework, DBS assesses the impact of key macro drivers on three dimensions – fundamentals, valuation and momentum. For geopolitical risk, the 'first order impact' is short-term volatility, reflected in the momentum factor. 'The second-order effects, such as changes to earnings expectations or inflation, will be captured under fundamentals.'
Business Times
28-05-2025
- Automotive
- Business Times
Digital tech will fuel Asia's US$573 billion mobility market
ASIA is expected to have the world's largest mobility market by 2035, thanks to technological developments, infrastructure investments and a growing middle class eager to spend on next-generation transport. While other regions will see significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) charging, ride-hailing, car rentals and advanced driver-assistance systems (Adas), the Asian market is set to climb from US$161 billion in 2023 to US$573 billion by 2035 and account for half of the global market, which is expected to be $1.1 trillion, according to research by the Oliver Wyman Forum. Some Asian nations, like China, are at an advantage in deploying cutting-edge mobility technology thanks to access to massive amounts of data available, significant investments in infrastructure, and a rich ecosystem of leading startups and workforce talent. Consumers are also eager to adopt these new solutions, translating into an above-average willingness to pay more for these services compared to those from other regions. And while global tariff circumstances may hinder development to some extent, much of Asia's mobility growth will come from digital services that may be less sensitive to potential trade barriers within the region. These mobility services are fuelling Asia's next decade: Advanced driver-assistance systems Capital and technical expertise from the region's leading tech firms and fierce competition between Asia's equipment manufacturers are accelerating the development of 'Level 2 and 3' driver-assist abilities. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up These features offer partial autonomous features, such as steering and acceleration, to decision-making abilities, like moving past a slow-moving vehicle. Those forces are enabling Asia's Adas market to skyrocket by 56 per cent annually, from US$798 million in 2023 to a likely US$170 billion by 2035. Asian consumers also are more willing to pay a premium for an autonomous vehicle, and more eager to switch car brands for better driver assistance offerings than consumers in other regions, according to an Oliver Wyman Forum survey of more than 16,700 respondents in 17 nations completed in the last quarter of 2024. Some 68 per cent of consumers from India, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore are willing to pay premium prices for autonomous features, compared to the global average of 61 per cent. Additionally, 91 per cent would switch car brands to access superior driver-assistance systems – again, higher than the 82 per cent global average. And while recent accidents with driver-assistance technology in the region may shake consumer sentiment in the short term, the market is still set to grow exponentially. Government and industry players are accelerating investment and on-road testing of autonomous vehicles, particularly in China. At least 16 cities across China, for example, allow autonomous vehicle providers to test on public roads, with roughly 20 Chinese automakers and suppliers involved as at 2024. In 2034, China is projected to sell enough 'Level 4' autonomous vehicles – those that are fully autonomous under certain conditions – that it nearly matches that of the combined American and European markets, according to an S&P forecast. Private capital is following Asia's lead. The region's entire value chain, from autonomous driving startups to microchip suppliers, secured US$6.5 billion in 2024, more than double the US$2.9 billion raised in 2023, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis. Ride-hailing Ride-hailing in the region is expected to almost double in size to US$150 billion, up from US$98 billion at a 3.6 per cent annual rate, as a growing middle class seeks more convenient travel in dense cities – some of which have restrictive paths to car ownership. That is a larger market size than the combined forecast for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and North America, which is expected to be roughly US$134 billion. Nearly three-fourths of Asian consumers regularly use ride-hailing services – far exceeding the global average of 44 per cent, according to an Oliver Wyman Forum survey. Super-app providers have boosted this demand by creating seamless ecosystems that make ride-hailing more affordable than in Western markets. Asian consumers pay an average of US$0.92 per kilometre compared to US$2.34 in Europe and US$1.78 in North America, research by Oliver Wyman Forum found. Across Asia, proactive regulation will continue to grow the market: Japan lifted a ban on ride-hailing services in Tokyo in 2024, with services now operating in all 47 of Japan's prefectures as of 2025. Elsewhere, Singapore's Land Transport Authority granted two provisional licences to ride-hailing operators to begin operating in 2025, while one ride-hailing platform began operating in Hong Kong in November 2024. Electric vehicle charging Asia is historically a leader in EV adoption, particularly in China, but many other Asian economies are following suit. EV sales rose 40 per cent from 2023 to 2024 in the region's emerging and developing economies, according to the International Energy Agency. Indeed, roughly 43 per cent of consumers in Asia plan to buy an EV, according to a November 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey, compared to the global average of 38 per cent. A widening EV market share in Asia is in part fuelling a charging services industry that is expected to grow from US$1.9 billion in 2023 to US$27 billion by 2035, at a 25 per cent annual rate. Many providers and governments are working in tandem to accommodate strong consumer demand. One Chinese automaker, for example, announced in March 2025 an ultra-fast charging system that it claims can power up a battery nearly as fast as refuelling a petrol-powered car. Elsewhere, Singapore aims to build 60,000 charging points by 2030. The broader EV ecosystem – from raw material miners to battery manufacturers and recyclers – is also expanding through a surge in venture capital into startups that support the full battery life cycle. Chinese startups collected US$5.3 billion in funding between 2021 and 2024, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis. The writers are from Oliver Wyman. Dr Andreas Nienhaus is a partner in the firm's automotive and mobility, and private capital practices. He is also co-lead of its think tank Oliver Wyman Forum's mobility initiative. Frank Fang is a principal in Oliver Wyman's transportation and advanced industrials practice, and Jonas Junk is an engagement manager in the firm's automotive and mobility practice.
Ottawa Citizen
12-05-2025
- General
- Ottawa Citizen
Phillips: Clear transportation plan works for Helsinki; why not here?
The last decade has not been kind to Ottawa's transportation infrastructure and public transit. This must change if the Official Plan's goal is to be achieved: to become the most livable mid-sized city in North America. Article content Article content Ottawa's Official Plan calls for densely populated 15-minute neighbourhoods linked by equally dense and integrated public transit and networks for safe walking and biking. The city's newly released draft Transportation Strategy is a key instrument to realize this goal. To work, however, it must establish clearly defined measurable outcomes. Article content Article content Outcomes state desired changes in the quality of life for people, environmental conditions and economic vitality. Key indicators inform better decisions by staff, management and council. Ongoing tracking of progress allows staff to adapt quickly and cost effectively. Can anyone see 10 years ahead? Does any organization always get things right the first time? No. So the city must constantly assess implementation and innovate in real time. Article content To understand what is required, Helsinki, a city much like Ottawa in size and values, offers a results-oriented model with its Transportation Strategy. At the heart of Helsinki's strategy lies the Transport System Plan for the City Centre. It demonstrates the city's commitment to continually monitor and assess whether an adaptive, efficient and sustainable urban mobility network is emerging from its strategy. Article content Helsinki is internationally recognized for its innovative urban development and forward-thinking public transport solutions. The 2023 Urban Mobility Readiness Index — produced by the Oliver Wyman Forum in partnership with the University of California — evaluated 67 international cities on how well their transit systems and mobility infrastructures are prepared to meet future challenges. Helsinki topped the ranking, based on its current transit but also its strategic foresight to adapt new technologies such as autonomous transport and smart infrastructure. Article content Article content Article content In response to rapid urban growth and escalating demands on city infrastructure, Helsinki prioritized clear targets and constantly reassesses them. Rather than implementing static measures, the city sets ambitious performance goals and key performance indicators (KPIs) to capture progress. Helsinki constantly refines its strategies based on real-time data. Article content The process began with a well-articulated vision: to transform the city centre into a hub where sustainable mobility is the norm, and where walking, cycling and public transit become the preferred modes of travel over private cars. This vision is underpinned by specific, quantifiable targets such as reducing travel time, lowering carbon emissions, reducing accidents and injury and increasing public transport usage. By defining KPIs from the outset, the plan ensures that every initiative is measurable and aligned with the overall vision. Article content A continuous cycle of action, evaluation and adjustment integrates feedback loops through mechanisms such as citizen juries and digital data analysis. Public opinion is actively sought, supporting real-time refinements. When a specific measure falls short, the strategy component is recalibrated, allowing for flexible, data-informed decision-making. Each desired outcome such as 'improved urban air quality' is matched with a metric, in this case 'reduced concentrations of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter' that is monitored through data tools.
Free Malaysia Today
11-05-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Go beyond assembly lines and semiconductors, Malaysia advised
Malaysia has been caught in isolated segments of manufacturing, says management consultant Ben Simpfendorfer, making it difficult to attract strategic investments. (Bernama pic) KUALA LUMPUR : Malaysia should broaden its manufacturing ecosystem beyond assembly lines and semiconductors to fully capitalise on foreign investments, according to an international management consultant. Ben Simpfendorfer, a partner at the consultancy Oliver Wyman, said solar panels, battery storage systems, heat pumps, and electrolysers are among the clean energy products that Malaysia could also start manufacturing given the huge potential they hold. 'There is a growing interest from Chinese firms in clean energy manufacturing,' he said. Simpfendorfer, who is also the head of Oliver Wyman Forum, the consultancy's think tank, said Malaysia has to move beyond basic assembly work and set itself up as a complete manufacturing hub. 'It shouldn't be just another stop in the process,' he told FMT. He said that while Malaysia has the opportunity to be a big winner in the reconfiguration of global supply chains, it needs to have a holistic master plan as well as an ecosystem that that has both breath and depth. 'That means building full vertical supply chains – not just isolated segments of manufacturing,' he said. Simpfendorfer said the time has come for Malaysia to act given that it has already attracted investments from companies aiming to build resilience in their supply chains, particularly in semiconductors. 'The foundations here are very strong as Malaysia has a solid legal framework and robust foreign investment policy incentives but there's obviously more that can be done. 'The next stage in the process is to focus on building the ecosystem,' he said. Simpfendorfer shared these insights after a roundtable in Kuala Lumpur with senior leaders from both the public and private sectors recently. He noted that while many are uncertain about near-term possibilities, and some sectors are still in the 'wait-and-see' mode, long-term prospects in the region remain strong. He singled out Malaysia as one of the countries that stand to benefit as supply chains are de-risked and Chinese interest grows amid global trade tensions. 'Malaysia has a unique window of opportunity as multinationals reconfigure their geographic footprints and rebalance supply chains,' he said. Simpfendorfer said Asean is increasingly seen as the place to be, with few other regions offering the same scale and manufacturing base, with Mexico being the only other exception. Last year, Malaysia crossed a milestone with RM378.5 billion in approved investments, the highest in the nation's history, with key strategic investments coming in from the US, Germany, China, Singapore and Hong Kong. Preparing to stay in high-tariff world He said some businesses are already making strategic plans to reconfigure their supply chains given that 'we are not returning to a low-tariff world'. 'With tariffs expected to be higher than before, now is the time to consider what future global supply chains might look like. 'Companies must plan for new trade corridors, such as China to Asean or Asean to India, and position themselves to capitalise on these opportunities,' he said. With this in mind, he said, more firms need to focus on identifying emerging trade opportunities and positioning themselves to make the most of future possibilities.
