Latest news with #OlivierHainaut
CBC
28-02-2025
- Science
- CBC
Asteroid's chance of hitting Earth in 2032 not high after all
Social Sharing New observations of a small asteroid discovered in December have led astronomers to conclude that the chances of it striking Earth are almost zero, after earlier data had indicated a higher risk of a collision with this space rock about 40 to 90 metres wide. The asteroid — called 2024 YR4 — is orbiting on a path that will bring it close to Earth in 2032, with scientists previously calculating impact probability at around three per cent, the highest value ever recorded for such an object. The new data, obtained by the European Southern Observatory's Chile-based Very Large Telescope and other facilities, gave a more precise picture of the asteroid's future trajectory. The impact probability has been lowered to 0.001 per cent, according to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre, while NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory put it at 0.004 per cent. "The risk is plummeting," said Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer with the European Southern Observatory in Germany. WATCH | Why do the chances of an asteroid striking Earth keep shifting? Why do the chances of an asteroid striking Earth keep shifting? 4 days ago Duration 2:12 Chance of striking moon still 1.7% NASA put the probability of the asteroid striking the moon at 1.7 per cent. The asteroid has been closely monitored since its discovery because of the potential threat it poses. An impact potentially could cause regional devastation and significant loss of life. "An object 10 metres across would create an impact with the same energy as the Hiroshima bomb," said Hainaut, who estimated that an impact by YR4 would be 500 times more energetic than that. "Fortunately, it is very likely that most of that energy would be dumped in the high atmosphere when the asteroid comes in. Still, it is a pretty big blast that could damage a city-wide area," Hainaut added. Asteroids have struck Earth occasionally over its long history, often with cataclysmic results. For example, an asteroid estimated at 10 to 15 kilometres wide — much larger than 2024 YR4 — hit off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, eradicating about three-quarters of the world's species and ending the age of dinosaurs. NASA in 2022 carried out a proof-of-principle planetary defence mission by using its robotic DART spacecraft to change the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, with an eye toward doing this in the future if one appears on a collision course with Earth. WATCH | NASA slams spacecraft into asteroid to test planetary defence: NASA slams spacecraft into asteroid to test planetary defence 2 years ago Duration 3:14 Astronomers are learning more and more about asteroids. For instance, NASA's robotic OSIRIS-REx spacecraft journeyed to an asteroid named Bennu and, in 2020, collected samples of rock and dust that bore some of the chemical building blocks of life, according to a study published in January. Another study estimated the potential damage that would be caused if an asteroid the size of Bennu — with a diameter of roughly 500 metres — strikes Earth. Scientists have estimated a one-in-2,700 chance of a Bennu collision with Earth in 2182. Aside from the immediate devastation, researchers estimated an impact by a Bennu-sized asteroid would inject 100 million to 400 million tonnes of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years. WATCH | Asteroid Bennu samples contain 'building blocks' of life on Earth: Asteroid Bennu samples contain 'building blocks' of life on Earth 30 days ago Duration 1:47 Scientists say samples harvested from NASA's historic mission to the asteroid Bennu contain the precursors to life on Earth, including the building blocks to DNA, RNA and proteins. Canadians involved in the mission say future ones could reveal even more about how the planet was formed.
Reuters
28-02-2025
- Science
- Reuters
Astronomers see lower risk of newly found asteroid hitting Earth
WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - New observations of a small asteroid discovered in December have led astronomers to conclude that the chances of it striking Earth are almost zero after earlier data had indicated a higher risk of a collision with this space rock about 130-300 feet (40-90 meters) wide. The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, is orbiting on a path that will bring it close to Earth in 2032, with scientists previously calculating impact probability at around 3%, the highest value ever recorded for such an object. The new data, obtained by the European Southern Observatory's Chile-based Very Large Telescope and other facilities, gave a more precise picture of the asteroid's future trajectory. The impact probability has been lowered to 0.001%, according to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre, while NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory put it at 0.004%. "The risk is plummeting," said Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer with the European Southern Observatory in Germany. NASA put the probability of the asteroid striking the moon at 1.7%. The asteroid has been closely monitored since its discovery because of the potential threat it poses. An impact potentially could cause regional devastation and significant loss of life. "An object 10 meters (33 feet) across would create an impact with the same energy as the Hiroshima bomb," said Hainaut, who estimated that an impact by YR4 would be 500 times more energetic than that. "Fortunately, it is very likely that most of that energy would be dumped in the high atmosphere when the asteroid comes in. Still, it is a pretty big blast, that could damage a city-wide area," Hainaut added. Asteroids have struck Earth occasionally over its long history, often with cataclysmic results. For example, an asteroid estimated at 6-9 miles (10-15 km) wide - much larger than 2024 YR4 - hit off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, eradicating about three-quarters of the world's species and ending the age of dinosaurs. NASA in 2022 carried out a proof-of-principle planetary defense mission by using its robotic DART spacecraft to change the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, with an eye toward doing this in the future if one appears on a collision course with Earth. Astronomers are learning more and more about asteroids. For instance, NASA's robotic OSIRIS-REx spacecraft journeyed to an asteroid named Bennu and in 2020 collected samples of rock and dust that, according to a study published in January, bore some of the chemical building blocks of life. Another study estimated the potential damage that would be caused if an asteroid the size of Bennu - with a diameter of roughly three-tenths of a mile (500 meters) - strikes Earth. Scientists have estimated a one-in-2,700 chance of a Bennu collision with Earth in 2182. Aside from the immediate devastation, the researchers estimated that an impact by a Bennu-sized asteroid would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years.
Yahoo
27-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Watch the asteroid that had us all worried zoom harmlessly through space (video)
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. The potential risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 dropped to nearly zero following new observations that helped better predict the asteroid's trajectory. Measuring about 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, asteroid 2024 YR4 could have caused local devastation if it were to collide with our planet. But recent observations, including from the European Southern Observatory's (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT), reduced the asteroid's impact probability to around 0.001%, after rising to more than 3% just last week — the highest impact probability ever recorded for an asteroid of this size. The ESO shared new videos showing the asteroid's path and possible locations on Dec. 22, 2032 in relation to Earth using new data from VLT observations collected on Feb. 20. The precise VLT observations, along with data collected by other observatories, allowed astronomers to more accurately model the asteroid's orbit and assess its impact probability, according to a statement from the observatory. VIDEO NOT PLAYING? Some ad blockers can prevent our video player from loading. An asteroid's impact probability is expected to fluctuate as astronomers gain a better understanding of its path around the sun. Following its initial discovery, continued observations have allowed astronomers to refine 2024 YR4's trajectory. However, studying the asteroid has been particularly challenging as it is moving away from Earth and has become increasingly faint and difficult to observe. "Because of the uncertainties, the orbit of the asteroid is like the beam of a flashlight: getting broader and broader and fuzzier in the distance," Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer at the ESO said in the statement. "As we observe more, the beam becomes sharper and narrower. Earth was getting more illuminated by this beam: the probability of impact increased. The narrower beam is now moving away from Earth." Now, with a better understanding of the asteroid's orbit, astronomers have all but ruled out an impact with Earth in 2032 — and observations from the ESO's VLT have been crucial to gauging its impact probability. The VLT is equipped with large mirrors and heightened sensitivity, which allows astronomers to see fainter objects farther into space. Located atop Cerro Paranal, an 8,645-foot-high (2,635 m) mountain in Chile's Atacama Desert, the VLT is also subject to clear, dark skies, enhancing its ability to track faint objects like 2024 YR4 and other potentially dangerous near-Earth asteroids. RELATED STORIES: — 'That's impact probability zero folks!' Earth safe from 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 — Odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 just went up. Here's why experts say you shouldn't worry — World's largest telescope threatened by light pollution from renewable energy project However, the pristine conditions under which the VLT operates may be at risk with a planned renewable energy project just 7 miles (11 kilometers) from the telescope. AES Andes, a subsidiary of the U.S. power company AES Corporation, aims to build an industrial-scale green hydrogen project called Inna. The light pollution created by the industrial facilities would have significant impacts on the quality of the skies above the Paranal Observatory, astronomers argue, and would limit the VLT's ability to detect faint cosmic objects. "With that brighter sky, the VLT would lose the faint 2024 YR4 about one month earlier, which would make a huge difference in our capability to predict an impact, and prepare mitigation measures to protect Earth," Hainaut said in the statement.
