Latest news with #OmerSidahmed
Al Taghyeer
23-05-2025
- Business
- Al Taghyeer
Sudan's Shadow Economy: The Hidden Alliances Funding War and Suppressing Civilian Transition
Sudan's Shadow Economy: The Hidden Alliances Funding War and Suppressing Civilian Transition By: Omer Sidahmed May 2025 From State Economy to Loot Economy Sudan's shadow economy didn't arise in a vacuum. It wasn't formed on the margins of the state — it emerged from its very core. Over decades, it became a central tool in the hands of a militarized system comprising the army, intelligence agencies, and militias. These forces forged alliances with Islamist political networks to entrench control over the state and society. With the eruption of the revolution and then the outbreak of war, the true nature of this economy became clear: not just a source of illicit wealth, but a fuel for conflict, a platform for distorting public consciousness, and a shield protecting power networks from collapse. An Economy Without — and Against — the State Sudan's shadow economy has evolved beyond the traditional definition of informal activities. It is now a structured system operating outside the state, financing, smuggling, exporting, and militarizing with no oversight or accountability. It manifests in the smuggling of gold from conflict zones via armed and politically protected routes across borders, in currency trading that sustains the parallel market outside the banking system, and in a web of foreign trade activities managed by a small elite tied to security apparatuses. These include fuel import companies shielded by the remnants of the former regime, as well as informal financial transfers that sustain the war economy. Estimates suggest that between 50% and 80% of Sudan's gold production is smuggled out of official channels. The country's gold smuggling losses over the past decade are estimated at no less than $23 billion — and possibly as high as $36.8 billion. These numbers highlight the catastrophic economic impact of the shadow economy, and how gold has shifted from a national resource to a secret source of war funding and elite enrichment. From Sanctions to Domination: The Birth of a Hidden Alliance During the years of U.S. sanctions, alternative networks for trade and finance emerged, led by businessmen and security-linked institutions aligned with the regime. Instead of addressing the crisis through national alternatives, the state opened the market to a parasitic class that thrived in the shadows, becoming the economic arm of the ruling power. Even after sanctions were lifted in 2020, this structure was not dismantled — it deepened. Following the October 25 coup, these networks reasserted control over markets and resources, initiating a new phase: converting the shadow economy into a direct war-financing mechanism. Rentierism: The Structural Foundation of the Shadow Economy One of the deep-rooted causes behind the swelling of Sudan's shadow economy is the dominance of a rentier economy — the prevailing model since independence. Sudan has historically relied on raw material exports with no added value: from cotton and oilseeds in the 1960s and 70s, to oil in the 2000s, and finally to gold after South Sudan's secession in 2011. This dependency has left the country vulnerable to external markets and lacking an independent domestic production base. Under authoritarian regimes and institutional corruption, the revenues from these resources were not invested in sustainable development. Instead, they were redistributed through patronage networks favoring ruling elites and security agencies. Rather than being a driver for development, the rentier model became a breeding ground for the shadow economy. Crucially, this economy did not emerge from the peripheries, as often assumed — it was born and nurtured in the center, within state institutions themselves, with complicity from the ruling elite. It became a tool for unofficial financing and consolidating political and military power. In this way, rentierism fused with corruption and militarization to create a parallel economy — not based on production, but on looting, not governed by law, but shielded by it. Arms and Narcotics Trade: The Forbidden Face of the Shadow Economy One of the most dangerous aspects of the shadow economy is the involvement of the ruling system in arms and narcotics trafficking. During the Al-Ingaz regime, documented reports from media and social platforms revealed incidents of 'drug containers' arriving in or passing through Sudan under the protection or complicity of security agencies. Though hidden from public view, this trade became a covert funding source for war, a tool for militia recruitment, and a means of money laundering that expanded the influence of power centers. A Funded War on Awareness: Media as a Weapon Against Civilian Rule The shadow economy doesn't just fund weapons; it also fuels a war for control over public consciousness. This media campaign is managed from hubs outside Sudan — in capitals such as Cairo, Istanbul, Dubai, and Doha — led by media figures from the former regime and affiliated ideological-security networks. These groups produce funded content on social media that justifies the war, demonizes revolutionary forces, rallies public opinion against civilian transition, and promotes the continuation of a war that has displaced millions, killed thousands, and devastated the country. The objective isn't only to suppress armed revolution, but to assassinate the very idea of a civilian state. Democracy is portrayed as a threat to stability, while military rule is presented as the only option for national unity — a blatant embodiment of state and societal militarization. Dismantling the System: Not Administrative Reform, But a Long-Term Struggle The dismantling of Sudan's shadow economy cannot be viewed as an administrative or legal procedure — especially in the context of an open war, institutional collapse, and military control over economic lifelines. This system won't fall through decisive victory alone, but through the erosion of its absolute control, when cracks begin to show in the regime's security and economic structure. Despite the militarization of daily life, civilian action must not be paralyzed or surrender to the status quo. The path forward lies in working within the war, not on its margins, to develop a realistic and radical transition project. This begins with fostering new public awareness that exposes the structural link between arms and wealth, and places the shadow economy under popular and international scrutiny. This effort requires close monitoring of the parallel market and analysis of its mechanisms, paving the way for fair economic policies and legislation that reorganize the market and dismantle smuggling monopolies. Crimes such as trafficking, narcotics trade, and gold theft must be documented and transformed into legal and media files that can be pursued, not merely retold. At the same time, independent and community-based media must rise as a front of resistance, countering the disinformation produced abroad and challenging the official narratives that justify war and vilify civilian transition. This media confrontation is not a luxury — it's essential for building a coherent, resistant public opinion. Finally, any attempt at transformation must include building flexible and realistic civilian alliances that propose a national alternative project. This project must redefine the state, sever the link between power and wealth, and shift economic control from militias back to the community. This is not a ready-made plan — it's an open front that requires daily effort and initiative from within the cracks war has created, not in waiting for its end. Working Amid War: No Time to Wait Despite the militarized reality and escalating conflict, this should not be an excuse for inaction or surrender to the status quo. On the contrary, the need now is to work from within the war — within its cracks — to lay the groundwork for a true civilian transformation. In a context like Sudan, change doesn't wait for victory — it is built inside the struggle itself, through realistic, deliberate steps rooted in public action and collective will. Tools for Change: From Awareness to Organization This path requires new tools and the creation of a critical public consciousness that understands the battle is not just military or political — but economic and cultural too. It begins by exposing the economic foundations of the armed system and highlighting the structural link between weapons and wealth. This enables internal and external pressure on power centers. Monitoring the parallel market and understanding its mechanisms is key for a future confrontation using just policies that dismantle shadow monopolies and restore the economy to the public. Equally important is the documentation of crimes like smuggling, drug trafficking, and gold looting — vital for building legal and media cases that can be pursued in future moments of accountability. On the media front, alternative, independent, and community media must be supported to counter the misinformation spread from foreign media rooms and to promote a resistance narrative based on the revolution, not the war machine. In parallel, civilian alliances must be built — realistic and resilient — offering a political and economic alternative that redefines the state-society-resource relationship and breaks the link between authority and plunder. An Open Front: A Beginning, Not an End What we face today is not a passing political crisis but a historic moment requiring a complete redefinition of the national project. This is not a finished blueprint, but an open front for gradual transformation — built not from outside collapse, but from within it. The true challenge is not waiting for war to end, but using the fractures it created to fuel civil resistance and spark new beginnings — toward a democratic, civilian, just, and salvaging state that reflects the people's aspirations, not the interests of entrenched elites. References 1. 1. Global Witness (2019). 'The Ones Left Behind: Sudan's Secret Gold Empire.' 2. 2. International Crisis Group (2022). 'The Militarization of Sudan's Economy.' 3. 3. Human Rights Watch (2020). 'Entrenched Impunity: Gold Mining and the Darfur Conflict.' 4. 4. United Nations Panel of Experts on the Sudan (2020–2023). Reports to the Security Council. 5. 5. BBC Arabic & Al Jazeera Investigations (2021–2023). Coverage of Sudan's illicit trade and media operations. 6. 6. Radio Dabanga (2015–2023). Reports on drug trafficking and corruption during Al-Ingaz regime. 7. 7. Sudan Tribune (2020). 'Forex crisis and informal currency trading in Sudan.'
Al Taghyeer
02-05-2025
- Business
- Al Taghyeer
Where Do We Begin? War, Losses, and Reconstruction in Sudan** (part 1)
Where Do We Begin? War, Losses, and Reconstruction in Sudan** (part 1) Omer Sidahmed April 2025 Introduction Since the outbreak of war in Sudan in April 2023, now entering its third year, Sudan has been enduring a major humanitarian and economic tragedy. As fighting continues and its reach expands, the lives of millions have turned into a genuine catastrophe. Amidst this dark situation, statements and initiatives discussing reconstruction have emerged, even though the war has not ceased. Among these are circulated recordings about an alleged agreement between the Sudanese military leadership and some Egyptian parties, where an Egyptian spokesperson mentioned that the cost of reconstruction could exceed one hundred billion dollars, with Egyptian companies undertaking projects in exchange for Sudanese gold. Discussing reconstruction before the war definitively stops seems absurd. There is no peace, stability, or real building while the sound of gunfire drowns out the voice of life. Moreover, the promoted Egyptian companies lack the technical expertise required to manage projects of this scale [1]. Economic and Humanitarian Losses: Frightening Figures The Agricultural Sector: The Broken Backbone Agriculture used to provide livelihoods for about 70% of the population [2]. With the continuation of the war, more than 50% of agricultural lands have become out of production, especially in the Gezira, Sennar, White Nile, Kordofan, and Darfur regions [3]. The suspension of the Gezira Scheme, the most important irrigated agricultural project in Africa, has crippled the production of cotton, peanuts, and wheat. Direct losses to the agricultural sector are estimated to exceed 20 billion dollars [4]. The Industrial Sector: Total Collapse Industrial activity was previously concentrated in Khartoum and several major cities. With escalating military operations, over 60% of industrial facilities have been fully or partially destroyed [5]. Estimated financial losses in the industrial sector reach about 70 billion dollars. The breakdown of supply chains and migration of skilled industrial workforce have aggravated unemployment and deepened the economic collapse [6]. The Health Sector: A System in Collapse Sudan has witnessed an almost total collapse of its healthcare system, with more than 70% of hospitals and health centers either shutting down or being destroyed [7]. Infectious diseases such as cholera, malaria, and dengue fever have spread extensively [8]. According to the World Health Organization [9], Sudan faces one of the worst health catastrophes in its recent history, with material losses in the sector exceeding 13 billion dollars. Epidemic Outbreaks: A Parallel Health Disaster The health system collapse led to widespread outbreaks of cholera, malaria, and dengue fever [9]. The lack of health monitoring, collapse of water and sanitation infrastructure, and halted vaccination campaigns contributed to severe epidemic flare-ups, doubling death rates especially among children and the elderly. The Education Sector: A Crime Against the Future Over 18 million children and youth have lost their educational opportunities due to the ongoing war [10]. Thousands of schools have been destroyed or converted into displaced persons' camps, paralyzing education throughout much of Sudan, risking the loss of an entire generation. The Banking Sector: A Fatal Blow About 70% of major bank headquarters and branches were concentrated in Khartoum before the war, most of which have been destroyed or looted [11]. This has led to paralysis of the banking system, the spread of parallel informal economy, and collapse of the Sudanese pound. The Export Sector: Unstoppable Bleeding Agricultural and livestock exports dropped by more than 80% [12]. Meanwhile, gold and crop smuggling through Sudanese ports has increased, allegedly with the complicity of some military leaders [13]. Poverty and Famine: Another Face of Destruction Over 70% of the population lives below the poverty line [14]. Approximately 17.7 million people face acute food insecurity [15], with silent famine spreading across several regions and insufficient humanitarian aid response. The Suffering of Displaced Persons and Refugees The conflict has internally displaced over 10 million Sudanese [16], living in camps lacking basic living conditions. About 2 million refugees have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, facing harsh conditions and lack of basic services. Paid Media: Manufacturing Falsehoods and Misleading the Public Alongside military destruction, media aligned with the former regime have been highly active through heavily funded channels that falsify facts, fuel ethnic hatred, and smear peaceful civil society movements [17].
Al Taghyeer
26-04-2025
- Business
- Al Taghyeer
The Sudanese Economy: Between the Devastation of War and the Myth of Production
The Sudanese Economy: Between the Devastation of War and the Myth of Production Omer Sidahmed April 2025 Email: [email protected] 'Sudan's agricultural production during the war has surpassed production levels in years of peace' – A statement attributed to the Minister of Finance in the de facto government, Jibril Ibrahim, and publishedby 'Al Arabiya Sudan' on April 24, 2025, has sparked widespread controversy. As the war enters its third year, Sudan is living through one of the worst chapters in its history: economic devastation and the collapse of essential services. The reality on the ground refutes these claims. Jibril Ibrahim is not merely an acting finance minister; he is a militia leader, a prominent Islamist figure, and a longtime ally of the National Congress Party, which ruled Sudan for three decades with authoritarianism and corruption before being overthrown by the December Revolution. Today, he is reviving the same old project: a kidnapped state, plundered resources, and political propaganda disconnected from reality. **Agriculture in Sudan has never been merely an economic sector; it is the main source of livelihood for 70% of the population. Today, however, it is besieged by war:** – Most agricultural production areas are located within active military operation zones. – Fuel, fertilizer, seeds, and financing are absent. – Farmers have been displaced, or their projects have halted due to lack of security. – There is no official data or field reporting to support government statements. Who, then, is planting and harvesting in a country where villages are bombed and supply lines are cut? According to the general manager of one of the major banks, the percentage of bad debts in Sudan has reached 50%. The banking system, already fragile, has grown even weaker due to the war and the swelling of the parallel economy, with 95% of the cash supply existing outside the banks. There is no banking capacity to finance agricultural or industrial production, which exposes the claims of economic growth as baseless. Sudan's current economy is managed by a network of alliances among remnants of the National Congress Party and military militias. There is no budget, no accountability, and no transparency: – Gold is smuggled through parallel airports. – Revenues are spent outside the official budget framework. – Resources are allocated to fund the war. – Institutions are used to suppress revolutionaries and the revolution. – More than 13 million children are in urgent need of support (UNICEF). – 70% of health facilities are destroyed or out of service (World Health Organization, 2024). – Electricity and water are unavailable in vast parts of the country. – More than 20 million people are suffering from hunger and food insecurity (World Food Programme, 2024). – GDP has contracted by 18% (World Bank, 2023). – 60% of industrial activity has ceased. – Poverty levels have exceeded 65%. – Agricultural exports have declined significantly. This statement is not a slip of the tongue, but rather an attempt to falsify reality and justify the war. Sudan needs to dismantle the war economy and build a peace-driven economy under a transparent civilian state that serves its citizens, not misleads them. References – Statement by Jibril Ibrahim, 'Al Arabiya Sudan', April 24, 2025. – World Bank: Sudan Economic Monitor, 2023. – World Health Organization: Sudan Report, 2024. – UNICEF: Sudan Education Emergency Report, 2024. – World Food Programme: WFP Sudan Emergency Update, 2024.
Al Taghyeer
14-04-2025
- Politics
- Al Taghyeer
Sudan: Plundered Wealth and Mounting Debt Amid Economic Liberalization, Corruption, and War
Sudan: Plundered Wealth and Mounting Debt Amid Economic Liberalization, Corruption, and War By Omer Sidahmed Introduction: The news that Ethiopia—a country with limited resources—had established the largest sovereign wealth fund in Africa, valued at $45 billion, compelled me to reflect on Sudan, a nation rich in natural resources but drained by corruption and authoritarian regimes for decades. Sudan's tragedy, however, extends beyond the systematic plundering of its resources. It also encompasses a devastating war ignited by the same corrupt system in an effort to preserve its grip on power. Islamists ruled Sudan under the banner of the National Salvation regime for thirty years, during which they plundered the country mercilessly. The state was transformed into a machine for personal wealth accumulation through the exploitation of international loans and Sudan's abundant natural resources. When popular opposition grew, they established the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as a tool to safeguard their regime. However, the RSF soon evolved into an independent power center, competing with the army for control and wealth. When the Sudanese revolution emerged with calls for civilian transition, remnants of the military and Islamist establishment ignited a war between the army and the RSF—seeking to block democratic change, even at the cost of national destruction. A War Sparked by Islamists to Block Democratic Transition—Accelerating Collapse: The Sudanese revolution that toppled Omar al-Bashir's regime in 2019 marked a pivotal moment in the country's history. It opened the door to hopes of a civilian-led government and genuine democracy. But the forces that had benefited from the Salvation regime—led by the military elite and the Islamist alliance—were unwilling to relinquish their power. As Sudan began moving towards democratic transformation, these forces conspired to halt it by any means necessary. The war is a direct result of this power struggle. Military leaders and their affiliated militias clung to their economic interests and refused to hand over power to an elected civilian government. When it became clear that democratic transition might threaten their privileges, they ignited a conflict under the guise of a confrontation between the army and the RSF—even though the RSF itself was a creation of the Bashir regime to protect its authority. Thus, the dream of civilian rule was shattered, and Sudanese hopes for building a modern state descended into a brutal war that destroyed lives, infrastructure, and livelihoods, pushing the country to the brink of total collapse. Mounting Debt and Systematic Looting: Sudan has always been rich in resources, but the Islamists who ruled under the Salvation regime turned it into one of the most corrupt, impoverished, and indebted nations on earth. External debt soared from $5 billion in the 1980s to over $66 billion today—with no visible improvement in citizens' lives. Most of the borrowed funds ended up in the pockets of officials and warlords, while infrastructure decayed and the economy collapsed. A Shocking Regional Comparison: While Sudan's economic indicators continue to decline, neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Kenya are experiencing significant growth. As Ethiopia announces a sovereign wealth fund worth $45 billion, Sudan faces resource scarcity and a GDP that dropped to under $30 billion in 2020—compared to over $100 billion in Kenya and approximately $360 billion in Egypt. Economic Liberalization and the Plundering of Sudan's Wealth: Since the late 1980s, Sudan has adopted economic liberalization policies in line with IMF recommendations. However, instead of fostering development, these policies led to the privatization of public institutions, removal of subsidies, and the rise of a parasitic elite connected to the ruling class. Phases of Economic Liberalization in Sudan: 1990s: Sale of state-owned enterprises, inflation, rising poverty. 1999–2011: Oil boom squandered without investment in long-term development. 2011–2019: Loss of oil revenues post-secession, growing livelihood crisis. 2019–2024: Currency devaluation, subsidy removal, outbreak of war. The Result: Economic disintegration, surging poverty, and widespread distrust in state institutions. War's Devastating Impact on Sudan's Economy: Total Collapse and Reconstruction as a Priority Since the outbreak of war in April 2023 between the army and the RSF, Sudan's economy has entered a phase of complete collapse. The crisis has moved beyond currency depreciation and inflation—it now poses an existential threat to the state itself. The war has destroyed what remained of infrastructure, halted agricultural and industrial production, displaced millions, and rendered major cities like Khartoum economically non-functional. Key Economic Consequences of the War: Infrastructure destruction: Power plants, roads, ports, and critical facilities have been devastated. Human capital drain: Skilled professionals are emigrating, thousands have died, and millions have been displaced. Investment paralysis: No local or foreign investor is willing to inject funds into a chaotic, lawless economy. GDP contraction: Sudan lost more than half of its economic activity within the first year of war. Hyperinflation and currency collapse: The Sudanese pound has lost over 90% of its value; prices have surged by 500%. The Cost of Reconstruction: An Unquantifiable Burden Amid Ongoing Conflict: It is currently impossible to accurately estimate the cost of rebuilding Sudan, as the war is ongoing and daily destruction escalates. However, it is certain that the required funds will be astronomical—potentially hundreds of billions of dollars. Reconstruction will go beyond physical rebuilding and involve reestablishing the very foundations of the state: A new infrastructure network An effective public service system Functional civilian institutions A viable production sector Solutions for mass displacement and the collapse of healthcare and education systems The Only Way Out: End the War Immediately There can be no development without peace. No economy can function amid war. Social justice is impossible as long as militias control power. Ending the war is not a political option—it is an existential necessity. If the fighting continues, Sudan will become a failed state, a hostage to foreign agendas, with no margin left to survive the destructive path it is on. Conclusion: Where is Sudan Headed? After two years of war and four decades of corruption, Sudan stands on the edge of total collapse. There will be no improvement unless the system that destroyed the economy is dismantled, and a unified national project is launched to save what remains. Sudan doesn't need miracles—it needs genuine political will to stop the war and rebuild the state on foundations of justice, citizenship, and competence. This is possible, but only if the corrupt order is uprooted and the economy is restructured to serve the people—not the elites. Sources: April 2025
