Latest news with #OnProtractedWar
Mint
17 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Bide your time: China's playing a long game in its trade talks with America
American President Donald Trump's trade war was meant to rebalance global power in America's favour. Instead, China is playing the long game, enduring short-term economic pain to shape any eventual deal to its advantage. The strategy appears to be working—for now. On Monday, Washington granted Beijing another 90-day reprieve, extending a pause on tariffs through 10 November. China announced it would do the same. Markets welcomed the move, which offered some relief after months of tension. The delay will give Chinese President Xi Jinping's policymakers more time to plan their next move. Time is Xi's ally. So far, the clearest outcome of each round of talks has been a commitment to meet again. Despite Trump's insistence that China has taken significant steps to improve their trade relationship, Beijing has not offered any consequential concessions on any of his key concerns. Also Read: Ajit Ranade: The success of 'Made in China 2025' alarmed the West The extension has come at a delicate time for the economy, which is plagued by sluggish domestic demand and a slowdown in the property sector. Bloomberg Economics says that China is among the few major nations without a clear timeline or terms for a deal, while others have struck agreements to secure lower tariffs. Even with this reprieve, it notes, Beijing faces average US tariffs of 40%—almost 25 percentage points above the global average. This will hurt the prospects of Chinese citizens, who have enjoyed more than three decades of near double-digit growth. The economy expanded by 5.2% in April-June from a year earlier—enviable by global standards—but anxieties among the once-thriving middle class over the future for their children are rising. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, with joblessness at 14.5% in June. That figure has improved in recent months, but analysts point to significant challenges: More than 12 million university students are set to graduate with hopes of joining the workforce. Also Read: China began de-risking its economy well before Trump's trade fury Still, China is betting that despite these economic costs, it can fight this trade war to the end. Politically, Beijing is preparing the Chinese population for a long battle ahead. State media editorials in recent months have lauded a Mao-era philosophy as a possible strategy to counter American pressure. They reference the former Chinese leader's 1938 essay On Protracted War, which laid out his approach to combating the invading Japanese between 1937 and 1945. During a series of lectures in 1938, Mao spoke of how the 'contest of strength is not only a contest of military and economic power, but also a contest of human power and morale." Scholars say the idea was to alert his fellow citizens that the war would be long and gruelling, but could be won through endurance and unity. Despite millions of Chinese dead, Mao refused to yield. The conflict only ended after Japan surrendered in World War II in 1945. Xi appears to be heeding his predecessor's counsel: Patience, at all costs—with the aim of shifting the odds in Beijing's favour. Domestically, Xi has the levers of the Chinese state at his disposal to help him craft a now well-worn narrative that the West is keeping China down. The trade war has fuelled those views, which play well with an already disgruntled citizenry. Also Read: Tariff whiplash: The US truce with China offers hollow relief Internationally, Trump is doing much of the work for him. In contrast to Washington's chaos on everything from trade to international student university admissions, Beijing is presenting itself as a champion of multilateralism—notwithstanding that it's also trying to reshape the world order to its advantage. China is happy to keep the talks going, but is unlikely to make any concessions, as William Yang, the International Crisis Group's senior North East Asia analyst, says in a note. 'China believes momentum is on its side because Trump has a stronger desire to sign a deal with Beijing so that he can claim victory and secure a summit with Xi in the fall." But US economic leverage is gradually weakening as China pushes ahead with its strategy of self-reliance. Beijing wants to reduce dependence on US markets and deepen control over critical supply chains, as a report from the RAND think-tank notes. China on Monday urged local firms to avoid using Nvidia's H20 processors, especially in government projects, after a White House directive required the chipmaker (and AMD) to pay 15% of Chinese AI chip sales to Washington. As Mao wrote, 'Final victory will not come about without human action." Trump may tout his successes in bringing China's economy to heel. By betting on time and resilience, Beijing is showing it's willing to wait for the win. ©Bloomberg The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.
NDTV
2 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
China Is Playing the Long Game on Trade. It's Working
President Donald Trump's trade war was meant to rebalance global power in America's favor. Instead, China is playing the long game, enduring short-term economic pain to shape any eventual deal to its advantage. The strategy appears to be working - for now. On Monday, Washington granted Beijing another 90-day reprieve, extending a pause on tariffs through Nov. 10. China announced it would do the same. Markets welcomed the move, which offered some relief after months of tension. The delay will give President Xi Jinping's policymakers more time to plan their next move. Time is Xi's ally. So far, the clearest outcome of each round of talks has been a commitment to meet again. Despite Trump's insistence that China has taken significant steps to improve their trade relationship, Beijing has made no consequential concessions on any of his key concerns. (China has offered some small compromises, none on the scale of American demands.) The extension has come at a delicate time for the economy, which is plagued by sluggish domestic demand and a slowdown in the property sector. Bloomberg Economics says that China is among the few major nations without a clear timeline or terms for a deal, while others have struck agreements to secure lower tariffs. Even with this reprieve, it notes, Beijing faces average US tariffs of 40% - almost 25 percentage points above the global average. This will hurt prospects for Chinese citizens, who have enjoyed more than three decades of near double-digit growth. The economy expanded by 5.2% in April-June from a year earlier - enviable by global standards - but anxieties among the once-thriving middle class over the future for their children are rising. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, with joblessness at 14.5% in June. That figure has improved in recent months, but analysts point to significant challenges: More than 12 million university students are set to graduate with hopes of joining the workforce. Still, China is betting that despite these economic costs, it can fight this trade war to the end. Politically, Beijing is preparing the population for a long battle. State media editorials in recent months have lauded a Mao-era philosophy as a possible strategy to counter American pressure. They reference the former Chinese leader's 1938 essay On Protracted War, which laid out his approach to combating the invading Japanese between 1937 and 1945. During a series of lectures in May and June 1938, Mao spoke of how the "contest of strength is not only a contest of military and economic power, but also a contest of human power and morale." Scholars say the idea was to alert his fellow citizens that the war would be long and grueling, but could be won through endurance and unity. Despite millions of Chinese dead, Mao refused to yield. The conflict only ended after Japan surrendered in World War II in 1945. (Mao's civil war with the Nationalists lasted another four years.) Xi appears to be heeding his predecessor's counsel: Patience, at all costs - with the aim of shifting the odds in Beijing's favor. Domestically, Xi has the levers of the Chinese state at his disposal to help him craft a now well-worn narrative that the West is keeping China down. The trade war has fueled those views, which play well with an already disgruntled citizenry. Internationally, Trump is doing much of the work for him. In contrast to Washington's chaos on everything from trade to international students' university admissions, Beijing is presenting itself as a champion of multilateralism - notwithstanding that it's also trying to reshape the world order to its advantage. China is happy to keep the talks going, but is unlikely to make any concessions, as William Yang, the International Crisis Group's senior North East Asia analyst, says in a note. "China believes momentum is on its side because Trump has a stronger desire to sign a deal with Beijing so that he can claim victory and secure a summit with Xi in the fall." But Washington's economic leverage is gradually eroding, as China pushes ahead with its strategy of self-reliance. Beijing wants to reduce dependence on US markets, and deepen control over critical supply chains, as a report from the RAND thinktank notes. China on Monday urged local firms to avoid using Nvidia Corp.'s H20 processors, especially in government projects, following a White House directive requiring it and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. to pay 15% of Chinese AI chip sales to Washington. As Mao wrote, "final victory will not come about without human action." Trump may tout his successes in bringing China's economy to heel. By betting on time and resilience, Beijing is showing it's willing to wait for the win. (This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
The Age
2 days ago
- Business
- The Age
China is playing the long game to win its war with Trump
US President Donald Trump's trade war was meant to rebalance global power in the United States' favour. Instead, China is playing the long game, enduring short-term economic pain to shape any eventual deal to its advantage. The strategy appears to be working — for now. On Monday, Washington granted Beijing another 90-day reprieve, extending a pause on tariffs through November 10. China announced it would do the same. Markets welcomed the move, which offered some relief after months of tension. The delay will give Chinese President Xi Jinping's policymakers more time to plan their next move. Time is Xi's ally. So far, the clearest outcome of each round of talks has been a commitment to meet again. Despite Trump's insistence that China has taken significant steps to improve their trade relationship, Beijing has made no consequential concessions on any of his key concerns. (China has offered some small compromises, none on the scale of American demands.) The extension has come at a delicate time for China's economy, which is plagued by sluggish domestic demand and a slowdown in the property sector. Bloomberg Economics says that it is among the few major nations without a clear timeline or terms for a deal, while others have struck agreements to secure lower tariffs. Even with this reprieve, it notes, Beijing faces average US tariffs of 40 per cent — almost 25 percentage points above the global average. Loading This will hurt prospects for Chinese citizens, who have enjoyed more than three decades of near double-digit growth. The economy expanded by 5.2 per cent in April-June from a year earlier — enviable by global standards — but anxieties among the once-thriving middle class over the future for their children are rising. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, with joblessness at 14.5 per cent in June. That figure improved in recent months, but analysts point to significant challenges: More than 12 million university students are set to graduate with hopes of joining the workforce. Still, China is betting that despite these economic costs, it can fight this trade war to the end. Politically, Beijing is preparing the population for a long battle. State media editorials have lauded a Mao-era philosophy as a possible strategy to counter US pressure. They reference the former Chinese leader's 1938 essay ' On Protracted War ', which laid out his approach to combating the invading Japanese between 1937 and 1945. During a series of lectures in May and June 1938, Mao spoke of how the 'contest of strength is not only a contest of military and economic power, but also a contest of human power and morale'. Scholars say the idea was to alert his fellow citizens that the war would be long and gruelling, but could be won through endurance and unity.
Sydney Morning Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
China is playing the long game to win its war with Trump
US President Donald Trump's trade war was meant to rebalance global power in the United States' favour. Instead, China is playing the long game, enduring short-term economic pain to shape any eventual deal to its advantage. The strategy appears to be working — for now. On Monday, Washington granted Beijing another 90-day reprieve, extending a pause on tariffs through November 10. China announced it would do the same. Markets welcomed the move, which offered some relief after months of tension. The delay will give Chinese President Xi Jinping's policymakers more time to plan their next move. Time is Xi's ally. So far, the clearest outcome of each round of talks has been a commitment to meet again. Despite Trump's insistence that China has taken significant steps to improve their trade relationship, Beijing has made no consequential concessions on any of his key concerns. (China has offered some small compromises, none on the scale of American demands.) The extension has come at a delicate time for China's economy, which is plagued by sluggish domestic demand and a slowdown in the property sector. Bloomberg Economics says that it is among the few major nations without a clear timeline or terms for a deal, while others have struck agreements to secure lower tariffs. Even with this reprieve, it notes, Beijing faces average US tariffs of 40 per cent — almost 25 percentage points above the global average. Loading This will hurt prospects for Chinese citizens, who have enjoyed more than three decades of near double-digit growth. The economy expanded by 5.2 per cent in April-June from a year earlier — enviable by global standards — but anxieties among the once-thriving middle class over the future for their children are rising. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, with joblessness at 14.5 per cent in June. That figure improved in recent months, but analysts point to significant challenges: More than 12 million university students are set to graduate with hopes of joining the workforce. Still, China is betting that despite these economic costs, it can fight this trade war to the end. Politically, Beijing is preparing the population for a long battle. State media editorials have lauded a Mao-era philosophy as a possible strategy to counter US pressure. They reference the former Chinese leader's 1938 essay ' On Protracted War ', which laid out his approach to combating the invading Japanese between 1937 and 1945. During a series of lectures in May and June 1938, Mao spoke of how the 'contest of strength is not only a contest of military and economic power, but also a contest of human power and morale'. Scholars say the idea was to alert his fellow citizens that the war would be long and gruelling, but could be won through endurance and unity.
AllAfrica
08-05-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
Trump failing to grasp China's long-game trade war tactics
As US and Chinese representatives prepare to meet in Switzerland in an effort to ease their escalating trade war, a potential sign of Beijing's approach has emerged in an opinion piece published in the state-owned journal Beijing Daily. Articles in the publication are often seen as a reflection of Beijing's official stance. The latest piece – Today, it is necessary to revisit 'On Protracted War' – argues that the trade war is an American attempt to strangle China's economic growth and that it is necessary to perceive the current trade tensions as a long-term development. What's particularly important here is that the title refers to former Chinese leader Mao Zedong's 1938 essay 'On Protracted War', a piece of writing that set out Mao's approach to combating the invading Japanese during the Second Sino-Japanese War between 1937 and 1945. This strategy was also key to the subsequent establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, after the communist victory in the long-running Chinese civil war. Mao became the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party from 1943 until his death in 1976 and created a set of political theories referred to as Maoism. He wrote extensively on political strategy. Chinese policymakers and media figures often invoke the nation's history to justify domestic and foreign policy. And the decision to reference Mao's text reflects not only China's strategy in the current trade war but also the lasting influence of his ideas. Mao's 1938 essay described a struggle that might seem, at first glance, a world away from the current China/US tariff conflict. His key thesis was that guerrilla warfare was a long-term affair with little chance for a quick victory. Mao's argument was that a war of attrition would end with a Chinese victory as it would slowly bleed the conventionally stronger Japanese forces of resources. Such an approach has been a key feature of insurgencies throughout the modern world, with movements such as the Taliban in Afghanistan using the long war of attrition against larger or more technologically advanced foes. By invoking On Protracted War, it would appear that Beijing perceives its economic struggles with the US as a conflict without a swift resolution, something that may come as a shock to Donald Trump, who is clearly signaling that he now wants a deal. This long-view approach has also been reflected in how Beijing has been preparing for a second Trump trade war ever since its experiences in the first Trump presidency. In contrast to China, the US administration appears to have banked on the trade war being a comparatively brief affair that should be ended by a quick and decisive knock-out blow against Beijing. And a public relations coup for Trump. This explains the showmanship behind the 'Liberation Day' announcements and the speed at which Washington deployed its key moves. But by preparing its citizens for a protracted trade war, it would appear that China's strategy, similarly to Mao's, is to slow down the process and grind out the best deal it can over time. Beijing believes that Chinese consumers are more capable of 'eating bitterness' (coping with hardship) than Americans. So, US diplomats would be well advised to dip into 'On Protracted War' to understand more of China's President Xi's intentions. However, this is not the only way in which Mao's strategies are relevant to global politics right now. Another of Mao's political ideas was what he termed the 'people's war.' This envisioned a slow movement where one group creates 'shadow institutions' that gradually displace established ones in order to build support from the local population. This echoes part of China's approach to globalization, where China has supported or created alternatives to US-led institutions. Many of Beijing's international institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and Belt and Road Initiative, are created to be alternatives to more established international bodies, such as the IMF and the World Bank. These Beijing felt were too dominated by the US. While China has worked on this policy for decades, it seems to chime with Trump's lack of commitment to US involvement in international institutions, such as the IMF and NATO. In this aspect of international politics, Xi and Trump seem to have somewhat similar goals, and could open up more space for Chinese leadership of these institutions. It's becoming clear that the Trump administration has severely miscalculated by assuming that Beijing would quickly capitulate, showing a lack of understanding of Chinese culture and political history. The expected instant deal has failed to materialize, and US stores are now warning that shelves may soon be empty of many goods. The trade war has become a war of attrition, and whatever moves Xi makes now are likely to be only his first in what he sees as a very long game, in the great Maoist tradition. Tom Harper is lecturer in international relations, University of East London This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
