Latest news with #OnProtractedWar
Asia Times
08-05-2025
- Business
- Asia Times
Trump failing to grasp China's long-game trade war tactics
As US and Chinese representatives prepare to meet in Switzerland in an effort to ease their escalating trade war, a potential sign of Beijing's approach has emerged in an opinion piece published in the state-owned journal Beijing Daily. Articles in the publication are often seen as a reflection of Beijing's official stance. The latest piece – Today, it is necessary to revisit 'On Protracted War' – argues that the trade war is an American attempt to strangle China's economic growth and that it is necessary to perceive the current trade tensions as a long-term development. What's particularly important here is that the title refers to former Chinese leader Mao Zedong's 1938 essay 'On Protracted War', a piece of writing that set out Mao's approach to combating the invading Japanese during the Second Sino-Japanese War between 1937 and 1945. This strategy was also key to the subsequent establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, after the communist victory in the long-running Chinese civil war. Mao became the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party from 1943 until his death in 1976 and created a set of political theories referred to as Maoism. He wrote extensively on political strategy. Chinese policymakers and media figures often invoke the nation's history to justify domestic and foreign policy. And the decision to reference Mao's text reflects not only China's strategy in the current trade war but also the lasting influence of his ideas. Mao's 1938 essay described a struggle that might seem, at first glance, a world away from the current China/US tariff conflict. His key thesis was that guerrilla warfare was a long-term affair with little chance for a quick victory. Mao's argument was that a war of attrition would end with a Chinese victory as it would slowly bleed the conventionally stronger Japanese forces of resources. Such an approach has been a key feature of insurgencies throughout the modern world, with movements such as the Taliban in Afghanistan using the long war of attrition against larger or more technologically advanced foes. By invoking On Protracted War, it would appear that Beijing perceives its economic struggles with the US as a conflict without a swift resolution, something that may come as a shock to Donald Trump, who is clearly signaling that he now wants a deal. This long-view approach has also been reflected in how Beijing has been preparing for a second Trump trade war ever since its experiences in the first Trump presidency. In contrast to China, the US administration appears to have banked on the trade war being a comparatively brief affair that should be ended by a quick and decisive knock-out blow against Beijing. And a public relations coup for Trump. This explains the showmanship behind the 'Liberation Day' announcements and the speed at which Washington deployed its key moves. But by preparing its citizens for a protracted trade war, it would appear that China's strategy, similarly to Mao's, is to slow down the process and grind out the best deal it can over time. Beijing believes that Chinese consumers are more capable of 'eating bitterness' (coping with hardship) than Americans. So, US diplomats would be well advised to dip into 'On Protracted War' to understand more of China's President Xi's intentions. However, this is not the only way in which Mao's strategies are relevant to global politics right now. Another of Mao's political ideas was what he termed the 'people's war.' This envisioned a slow movement where one group creates 'shadow institutions' that gradually displace established ones in order to build support from the local population. This echoes part of China's approach to globalization, where China has supported or created alternatives to US-led institutions. Many of Beijing's international institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and Belt and Road Initiative, are created to be alternatives to more established international bodies, such as the IMF and the World Bank. These Beijing felt were too dominated by the US. While China has worked on this policy for decades, it seems to chime with Trump's lack of commitment to US involvement in international institutions, such as the IMF and NATO. In this aspect of international politics, Xi and Trump seem to have somewhat similar goals, and could open up more space for Chinese leadership of these institutions. It's becoming clear that the Trump administration has severely miscalculated by assuming that Beijing would quickly capitulate, showing a lack of understanding of Chinese culture and political history. The expected instant deal has failed to materialize, and US stores are now warning that shelves may soon be empty of many goods. The trade war has become a war of attrition, and whatever moves Xi makes now are likely to be only his first in what he sees as a very long game, in the great Maoist tradition. Tom Harper is lecturer in international relations, University of East London This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Telegraph
05-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Xi Jinping can't survive Trump's tariff pain
'Chinese society has an incredibly high capacity for pain,' Yasheng Huang of the MIT Sloan School of Management told the Wall Street Journal last month. And because China's people can supposedly 'eat bitterness', the phrase commonly used to describe the country's capacity to endure hardship, we are told that Chinese leaders have the luxury of looking past temporary adversity to think long term. Yes, both those notions were once true and both are accepted wisdom. But, no, they are no longer correct. In fact, China's society today is among the least resilient anywhere. Even before Donald Trump took the oath of office in January, the Chinese people were showing signs of disillusionment, despair, and anger. Now, with their economy probably contracting and their country caught up in a tense trade war, Chinese society is beginning to come under new stress. The regime certainly appears to be on edge, looking desperately to the past for ways to keep the population on side. On April 9, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted a Korean War-era video of Mao Zedong. 'No matter how long this war is going to last, we'll never yield,' Mao said in the clip from 1953. 'We will fight until we completely triumph.' Then on April 28, Beijing Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party's Beijing Municipal Committee, published an article titled 'Today, It Is Necessary to Revisit On Protracted War '. On Protracted War is a series of lectures Mao delivered in 1938 calling for the unity of the Chinese people in their struggle to defeat the invaders from Imperial Japan. China's regime has good reason to be worried about the mood of the Chinese people. The warning signs were plain to see. Due to the extraordinary Covid lockdowns and the subsequent failure of the economy to recover, people began withdrawing from society in large numbers. For many Chinese, it was the first time they had ever experienced a downturn. The last officially recognised recession had occurred in 1976. ''Lying flat,' 'Buddha whatever,' 'Kong Yijiism,' 'involution' – China today has so many memes for opting out,' wrote the University of Pennsylvania's Victor Mair in his July 2023 Language Log posting titled 'The Growing Supinity of Chinese Youth'. Since then, young Chinese have also been 'retiring' by leaving cities and taking up farming. Pessimism – even nihilism – accounts for the large number of Chinese people leaving their country for good and for the precipitous drop in birth rates. According to one estimate, China's total fertility rate last year was just 1.03, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. 'In this country, to love your child is to never let him be born in the first place,' read a comment posted on a Chinese site in 2023. Young Chinese, who refuse to have children, are calling themselves 'the last generation'. Many argue that the Communist Party's sophisticated social controls can keep the populace in line indefinitely, but the price of severe repression is volatility. The Chinese population, who most of the time have accepted repression, have periodically and unexpectedly exploded. Beginning in October 2022, for instance, large numbers of workers suddenly fled a Chinese manufacturing complex making iPhones in Zhengzhou, in central China. That incident was followed by spontaneous protests across the country. In November, chants of 'Step down, Xi Jinping' were heard on the streets of Shanghai. Eventually, the demonstrations died down, but the people of the People's Republic have a greater willingness to protest than is sometimes imagined. The Communist Party, as a result, feels insecure. That's especially true now as Trump's tariffs have hit Chinese workers hard. The US, after counting rerouted goods, takes almost 21 per cent of China's exports. Export-oriented factories are reported to be closing and worker protests are said to have become common across the country. The regime fears mass protests because the Chinese people, even in calm times, have a history of acting in concert. Last June, four female college students in Zhengzhou decided to take an overnight 50-km bike ride to Kaifeng for soup dumplings. The craze caught on, and in November tens of thousands were making the overnight treks. Authorities tried to limit the number of riders, and there were even reports that colleges and universities were restricting students from congregating and participating, but to little avail. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's grip on the Communist Party may be weakening. Xi's hatchet man in the military, General He Weidong, has not been seen in public since early March, and may have been sacked. Other indications suggest that Xi is no longer in full control of the military, having lost influence to General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission and China's number one uniformed officer. There are also signs that Xi is facing stiff opposition in the senior civilian ranks of the party. China's president must be thinking short-term these days. He has effectively junked the rules guiding succession, and by grabbing power from everyone else he has ended up with near-total responsibility for everything. Because he is being blamed for what has been going wrong for the last several years, Xi, as a practical matter, effectively faces an election every day. 'China's Communist elite presides over a decaying regime,' Charles Burton of the Sinopsis think tank told me last week. 'Xi Jinping's imposition of a neo-Stalinist programme of ever-tightening repression and reversion to full-state control of the national economy has led to economic stagnation, social malaise, and greater regime fragility.' For Xi Jinping, there is no long term.
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Xi Jinping can't survive Trump's tariff pain
'Chinese society has an incredibly high capacity for pain,' Yasheng Huang of the MIT Sloan School of Management told the Wall Street Journal last month. And because China's people can supposedly 'eat bitterness', the phrase commonly used to describe the country's capacity to endure hardship, we are told that Chinese leaders have the luxury of looking past temporary adversity to think long term. Yes, both those notions were once true and both are accepted wisdom. But, no, they are no longer correct. In fact, China's society today is among the least resilient anywhere. Even before Donald Trump took the oath of office in January, the Chinese people were showing signs of disillusionment, despair, and anger. Now, with their economy probably contracting and their country caught up in a tense trade war, Chinese society is beginning to come under new stress. The regime certainly appears to be on edge, looking desperately to the past for ways to keep the population on side. On April 9, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted a Korean War-era video of Mao Zedong. 'No matter how long this war is going to last, we'll never yield,' Mao said in the clip from 1953. 'We will fight until we completely triumph.' Then on April 28, Beijing Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party's Beijing Municipal Committee, published an article titled 'Today, It Is Necessary to Revisit On Protracted War'. On Protracted War is a series of lectures Mao delivered in 1938 calling for the unity of the Chinese people in their struggle to defeat the invaders from Imperial Japan. China's regime has good reason to be worried about the mood of the Chinese people. The warning signs were plain to see. Due to the extraordinary Covid lockdowns and the subsequent failure of the economy to recover, people began withdrawing from society in large numbers. For many Chinese, it was the first time they had ever experienced a downturn. The last officially recognised recession had occurred in 1976. ''Lying flat,' 'Buddha whatever,' 'Kong Yijiism,' 'involution' – China today has so many memes for opting out,' wrote the University of Pennsylvania's Victor Mair in his July 2023 Language Log posting titled 'The Growing Supinity of Chinese Youth'. Since then, young Chinese have also been 'retiring' by leaving cities and taking up farming. Pessimism – even nihilism – accounts for the large number of Chinese people leaving their country for good and for the precipitous drop in birth rates. According to one estimate, China's total fertility rate last year was just 1.03, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. 'In this country, to love your child is to never let him be born in the first place,' read a comment posted on a Chinese site in 2023. Young Chinese, who refuse to have children, are calling themselves 'the last generation'. Many argue that the Communist Party's sophisticated social controls can keep the populace in line indefinitely, but the price of severe repression is volatility. The Chinese population, who most of the time have accepted repression, have periodically and unexpectedly exploded. Beginning in October 2022, for instance, large numbers of workers suddenly fled a Chinese manufacturing complex making iPhones in Zhengzhou, in central China. That incident was followed by spontaneous protests across the country. In November, chants of 'Step down, Xi Jinping' were heard on the streets of Shanghai. Eventually, the demonstrations died down, but the people of the People's Republic have a greater willingness to protest than is sometimes imagined. The Communist Party, as a result, feels insecure. That's especially true now as Trump's tariffs have hit Chinese workers hard. The US, after counting rerouted goods, takes almost 21 per cent of China's exports. Export-oriented factories are reported to be closing and worker protests are said to have become common across the country. The regime fears mass protests because the Chinese people, even in calm times, have a history of acting in concert. Last June, four female college students in Zhengzhou decided to take an overnight 50-km bike ride to Kaifeng for soup dumplings. The craze caught on, and in November tens of thousands were making the overnight treks. Authorities tried to limit the number of riders, and there were even reports that colleges and universities were restricting students from congregating and participating, but to little avail. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's grip on the Communist Party may be weakening. Xi's hatchet man in the military, General He Weidong, has not been seen in public since early March, and may have been sacked. Other indications suggest that Xi is no longer in full control of the military, having lost influence to General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission and China's number one uniformed officer. There are also signs that Xi is facing stiff opposition in the senior civilian ranks of the party. China's president must be thinking short-term these days. He has effectively junked the rules guiding succession, and by grabbing power from everyone else he has ended up with near-total responsibility for everything. Because he is being blamed for what has been going wrong for the last several years, Xi, as a practical matter, effectively faces an election every day. 'China's Communist elite presides over a decaying regime,' Charles Burton of the Sinopsis think tank told me last week. 'Xi Jinping's imposition of a neo-Stalinist programme of ever-tightening repression and reversion to full-state control of the national economy has led to economic stagnation, social malaise, and greater regime fragility.' For Xi Jinping, there is no long term. Gordon G Chang is the author of 'Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America' and 'The Coming Collapse of China'. Follow him on X @GordonGChang Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
South China Morning Post
04-05-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Forget Mao, Clausewitz is a better guide to the real US-Chinese trade war
Is a trade war a real war, or is it only a metaphor? Going by Chinese state media, the country is drawing inspiration from Mao Zedong's series of speeches, collectively published as the famous On Protracted War. Advertisement In it, the Great Helmsman counsels against both optimism for a quick victory and defeatism. Rather, there is a need for a realistic assessment of the stages that must be reached before a decisive battle can be risked to achieve ultimate victory. That, of course, means readying for a long drawn-out and arduous struggle – in his case, against the invading Japanese, and in our case, against Donald Trump and his trade warriors. You can easily see why state-funded commentators love the Maoist rhetoric. After all, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly called on the party to relearn from Mao, but especially through On Protracted War, to find enlightenment and confidence on the way forward. Beijing clearly wants to portray itself as standing firm and ready to fight to the end against Washington's 'bullying' tariff tactics. Advertisement But, instead of following Mao, the two sides may already be practising what the Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz teaches in his classic On War. One way to understand what is actually happening on the trade war front may be to recast the Prussian general's famous but usually misunderstood statement as 'war is negotiations by other means'.
South China Morning Post
29-04-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Mao's protracted war insights offered as inspiration in US-China trade conflict
China's state media has urged the public to revisit Mao Zedong's famous 1938 essay 'On Protracted War', saying that it offers 'great inspiration for the international struggles of the new era' amid the protracted economic hostilities with the US. Advertisement Beijing Daily said on Monday that Mao's essay, a commentary on China's war against Japanese aggression , would encourage people to remain confident of eventual victory in the tariff war. The call to throw off attitudes of a defeatist mindset as well as the illusions of a quick win came nearly a month after the Donald Trump administration's 'Liberation Day' tariff plan, which triggered an escalating tit-for-tat trade battle between China and the US. Washington has imposed tariffs totalling 145 per cent on goods from China so far this year, bringing the effective tariff rate to about 156 per cent. Beijing has responded with a rise to 125 per cent in duties on its imports from the US. 'The situation has evolved far beyond what the US side anticipated,' the commentary said in the Beijing Daily, mouthpiece for the ruling party's municipal committee in the capital. Advertisement 'Not only was the Chinese government the first to clearly state the firm stance of 'fighting to the end', but the voices from the international community opposing bullying have also grown louder.'
