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Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Kansas City Chiefs' One Big Question: Where Has the Deep Ball Gone, and Will It Come Back?
Kansas City Chiefs' One Big Question: Where Has the Deep Ball Gone, and Will It Come Back? originally appeared on Athlon Sports. In this offseason series, Athlon's Doug Farrar asks the One Big Question for every NFL team when the 2025 season begins. In the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off their 40-22 Super Bowl embarrassment at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, the big question is how Andy Reid's offense can create more explosive plays, because they've basically disappeared over the last two seasons. Hopefully, Reid and Patrick Mahomes have everything assembled to bring those vertical shot plays back on the field from the playbook. Advertisement If there's one thing you would never expect, it's for Patrick Mahomes to be one of the NFL's worst deep passers. But in the 2024 season, that's exactly what he was. On throws of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes completed just 16 of 54 passes of 20 or more air yards for 589 yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 78.7, fifth-worst in the NFL among quarterbacks who played at least 50% of their teams' snaps. Mahomes was one of four quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson) to have a total negative EPA on deep passes at -0.4. Moreover, this was not a one-year trend. In 2023, Mahomes' deep passes did even less damage to Kansas City's opponents, and even more to his own offense. Then, he completed 24 of 76 deep passes for 817 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 49.1. which was the NFL's worst among qualifying quarterbacks. This had not been a problem before. From his first NFL season as a starter in 2018, Mahomes had been among the best quarterbacks when slinging it deep. But starting with the trade that sent Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins on March 23, 2022, the passing game imploded for all kinds of reasons, and Mahomes hasn't been able to recover in an explosive play sense. Two of the other factors that have played into this? Travis Kelce's age, and an offensive line that has been a disaster on the edges. Kelce will be 35 years old when the 2025 season kicks off, and while he's still a valuable player on short and intermediate stuff, he is no longer the deep threat he used to be. And like Hill, he hasn't been replaced credibly in that regard. Advertisement While the Chiefs have had one of the more solid interior offensive lines over the last few seasons with left guard Joe Thuney, center Creed Humphrey, and right guard Trey Smith, the tackles have been a real problem. And now, Thuney is out the door after the Chiefs traded him to Chicago this offseason, to be replaced by second-year man Kingsley Suamataia, so even that is less than certain. The Chiefs hope that first-round left tackle Josh Simmons from Ohio State will be ready for the regular season after the torn patellar tendon that cost him the last 10 games of his collegiate career, and a shot at playing for the national championship. Andy Reid has recently said that Simmons is further along in the recovery process that was originally expected, and if they get the same Josh Simmons we saw at Ohio State, that will be a massive upgrade on the left side. It doesn't do anything to deal with all of Jawaan Taylor's penalties and blown blocks on the right side, but there's only so much one guy can cover. That said, when you watch Mahomes' deep incompletions in 2024, the protection is generally better than one might assume. There are of course those plays in which defenders leak through before they should, but the tape says that it doesn't happen to Mahomes to an unusual degree. More often last season, the problems with deep passes had their generation in one of two causes: Miscommunication between Mahomes and his receivers, and Mahomes throwing late into closed windows. 'I don't feel like we got to the goal that we wanted to," Mahomes said in April of the explosive misses. "I think the injuries definitely affected it a little bit, but my goal is to be better and try to give guys chances down the field. I mean, if you look at the only real positive, I think, from the Super Bowl, was the second half [and] me just kind of getting back to we have to throw the ball deep, we have to push the envelope, and you saw Xavier (Worthy) making some big plays down the field. Trying to take positives away from that and from the rest of the season as well is, we got the guys. It's about me trusting them, making the throws downfield, and letting them make plays.' Advertisement Receiver injuries were a big part of the problem in 2024. Marquise "Hollywood" Brown missed all but two regular-season games, though he was back for the postseason. Rashee Rice was lost for the rest of the season after four weeks with a knee issue. Basically, Kansas City's deep passing game was mostly about 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins, and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy, whose historic speed on the field was something that Mahomes had to take a minute to time up with. Worthy was also learning to deal with NFL defenses. Still, Worthy led the team with seven deep receptions on 21 targets for 270 yards and four touchdowns. With a full NFL season under his belt, he has the potential to be Mahomes' most explosive teammate since Tyreek Hill. But that's a projection at this point. As is the effect of fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals, an underrated receiver whose tape should have made him a second-day guy. The 6-foot-0, 205-pound Royals isn't the most fleet of foot, but he does everything else well, and he did catch seven deep passes last season on 12 targets for 238 yards and two touchdowns, so there is that potential, as well. 'Obviously, everything looks great right now," Mahomes said on April 23, just before the Chiefs added Royals in the draft. "I mean, getting the guys back healthy as far as Rashee and having Hollywood fully healthy and Xavier in Year 2 – I think the offense has the chance to be really, really good. It's just about keeping building – I'm excited to kind of have these guys again just with – we've had a lot of turnover in the receiving room, and it seems like the core group will be back in its entirety. Advertisement "So, the goal is to try to build on it, and get even better, and try to get back to some of the explosive passing plays that we've done in years past.' If the Chiefs are to get back to the Super Bowl and try to start another dynasty, they have the defense to do it. The difference in 2025 will be the deep ball, and whether or not it comes back. (All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions). Related: Men in the Middle: Defensive Tackles Making Their Mark in Today's NFL Related: Houston Texans' One Big Question: Have They Done Enough to Protect C.J. Stroud? This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Baltimore Ravens' One Big Question: Can Lamar Jackson Finally Transcend Postseason Demons?
Baltimore Ravens' One Big Question: Can Lamar Jackson Finally Transcend Postseason Demons? originally appeared on Athlon Sports. In this offseason series, Athlon Sports' Doug Farrar asks the One Big Question for all 32 NFL teams — the primary discussion point that will measure ultimate success (or not) for every franchise. We begin our AFC North discussion with the Baltimore Ravens, who have the second-most regular-season wins (78, behind only the Kansas City Chiefs' 90) since Lamar Jackson's NFL career began in 2018. So, why has Jackson's postseason tenure been so problematic, and is that about more than just his own failures? Advertisement Lamar Jackson is a two-time NFL Most Valuable Player (2019 and 2023), he had my regular-season vote for 2024, and he is unquestionably one of the game's great players, regardless of position. Jackson is still an amazing runner — he's the only quarterback ever to run for more than 1,000 yards in two separate regular seasons (2019 and 2020), and if you count postseasons, he ran the ball 160 times for 1,035 yards last season. And as a pure quarterback, Jackson has also managed to bust most of the myths that have surrounded him since he came out of Louisville and was the 32nd player selected in the 2018 draft — a hilarious miss by most non-Baltimore Ravens teams that year — in that he's become so much more than the "future receiver" projected by Big Brains like Bill Polian. Jackson has been a great thrower from the pocket for years, despite repeated insistences to the contrary from a lot of analysts, and that continued into the 2024 season. Last season from the pocket, Jackson completed 305 of 435 passes for 3,708 yards, 1,786 air yards, 34 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 117.3 that was by far the NFL's highest among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts from the pocket — Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles ranked second at 112.0. Basically, there isn't anything that Lamar Jackson can't do as a quarterback... with one notable exception. And yes, it's the one that Jackson and every Ravens executive, coach, player, and fan is sick of hearing: Advertisement To paraphrase Billy Beane, why doesn't Jackson's [expletive] work in the playoffs? We could go chapter and verse on the stats, but let's make it simple. Among quarterbacks who have been in the NFL every season from 2018 through 2024, only Patrick Mahomes (102.3 and 7.52) has a higher passer rating and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (Pro Football Reference's primary metric for quarterback efficiency) than Jackson's 102.0 and 7.26. But that's in the regular season. In the postseason from 2018 through 2024, Jackson ranks 20th in passer rating (84.6), and 18th in ANY/A (5.39) among quarterbacks with at least 100 postseason attempts. So, this is more than the mirage were were given regarding Jackson as a non-NFL quarterback. Jackson's overall postseason stats — 146 completions in 241 attempts for 1,753 yards, 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions — tell the story as much as anything, and it's not as if things have gotten much better over the years. Advertisement In last season's 28-14 wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jackson completed 16 of 21 passes for 175 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 132.0. Jackson made a handful of explosive play throws both in and out of the pocket, but for the most part, he was a drive-extender against a very good defense, and the idea was to let his own Ravens defense and Derrick Henry lead the way. Jackson was almost more valuable as a runner in that game, with 81 yards on 15 rushing attempts, as the Ravens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken read-optioned Pittsburgh's defense to death. And then, there was the divisional game against the Buffalo Bills. Back in Week 4, the Ravens rick-rolled Buffalo to the tune of a 35-10 blastoff in which Henry ran the ball 24 times for 199 yards and a touchdown, and Jackson played off that brilliantly, exploiting the Bills' messy mesh point defense for 64 yards and a touchdown of his own on six carries. Advertisement In the rematch — a 27-25 win in Buffalo's favor — Monken called a completely different game for whatever reason against a defense that played more three-linebacker sets than usual, because it had been terrible against the kinds of stuff Jackson had demolished it with in Week 4. When facing quarterback keeps, draws, scrambles, or running back runs off read-option plays coming into that game, the Bills allowed 254 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries. That's 7.5 yards per carry, third-worst in the NFL, a 55.9% first-down percentage (fourth-worst in the NFL), and a +0.55 EPA per attempt (fourth-worst in the league). And yet, there were just four read-option runs in the playoff game, and Jackson didn't keep the ball on... well, any of them. The Ravens, who knew full well that their best opportunity to get to and won a Super Bowl was to combine the best of Lamar Jackson as a runner and as a passer, failed to do that when it mattered most. One could argue, following Baltimore's 17-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 AFC Championship game, that it was the second straight season in which Monken failed to realize the quarterback he had when he really needed to. In that game, Jackson was asked to throw the ball 37 times, and there were just 16 rushing attempts for the Ravens, with Jackson getting eight of them for 54 yards. Advertisement In the Bills loss, Jackson took the responsibility off the shoulders of tight end Mark Andrews, who fumbled the ball late in the fourth quarter, and dropped a two-point conversion that would have tied the game with 1:33 remaining. 'We're a team," Jackson said. "In the first half, I had two costly turnovers. Me not holding the safety, me just knowing the coverage and knowing it was man [coverage], I threw a B.S. interception. It was 7-7 at the time. I believe they scored after that. We battled back, fumbled the snap trying to make something happen. It was like an RPO play, so I couldn't really throw the ball to [tight end Isaiah] Likely [because] the offensive line was down the field, so I tried to make something happen, tried to squeeze the ball. It slipped out of my hand, [and the Bills] picked it up, got some yards that I think led to points for them, so it's a team effort out there. "[Mark Andrews has] been busting his behind. He's been making plays out on that field for us. [We] came up short, and like I've been saying all season, every time we're in situations like this, turnovers play a factor. Penalties play a factor. Tonight, the turnovers... We can't have that [expletive]. That's why we lost the game, because as you can see, we're moving the ball wonderfully. It's just hold onto the [expletive] ball. I'm sorry for my language. I'm just tired of this.' Everybody in the organization will be tired of it until it changes, and here, it all starts with Monken. Why he has been so eager to change the plan when everybody knows what works, and nobody is still able to consistently stop it, but that needs to become a thing of the past. Advertisement Letting Lamar be Lamar, as opposed to trying to outsmart an opponent on the biggest possible stage, would be an excellent way to help the Ravens' most important player on their way to what they hope will be a Super Bowl journey in the 2025 season — and mercifully, an end to all that (legitimate) talk about Jackson's postseason legacy. (All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise specified). Related: Buffalo Bills' One Big Question: Can This Franchise Finally Find the Super Bowl? Related: Miami Dolphins' One Big Question: Is Tua Tagovailoa a Franchise Quarterback? Related: New York Jets' One Big Question: Can Justin Fields Become the Quarterback They Need? This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 3, 2025, where it first appeared.
