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Ontario budget 2025: Experts and opposition say it falls short where it matters most
Ontario budget 2025: Experts and opposition say it falls short where it matters most

National Observer

time16-05-2025

  • Business
  • National Observer

Ontario budget 2025: Experts and opposition say it falls short where it matters most

The Ford government's $230-billion budget, tabled Thursday with a record $14.6-billion deficit, is drawing sharp criticism from economists, environmental advocates and opposition leaders. They argue the plan fails to address Ontarians' most pressing concerns — affordability, climate inaction, economic resilience and growing economic uncertainty driven by US tariffs. Much of the budget is focused on responding to US President Donald Trump's tariffs, particularly in the manufacturing and auto sectors — a cornerstone of Ontario's economy that supports tens of thousands of jobs and accounts for $36 billion of the province's $220-billion export market. The budget paints a grim economic picture: job-growth projections for 2025 have been halved, from 130,000 to just 73,000. In 2026, Ontario expects to add only 33,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 7.1 per cent over the next three years. Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, while delivering the budget at the Legislature, called it a 'foundation for Ontario's economic transformation' and warned that Canada is facing 'one of the single greatest economic challenges in modern history.' 'Tariffs threaten to slow down what we've achieved to date in our mission to build our economy,' Bethlenfalvy said. 'We must respond with strength, prudence and unity to protect our industries, our jobs — and even our national sovereignty.' Despite the challenges, Bethlenfalvy said he believes Ontario can become less reliant on the US and emerge as a global leader by leveraging its clean energy, natural resources and skilled workforce. Spending highlights and economic risks Among key items in the budget: $5 billion for a 'Protecting Ontario' account to help businesses impacted by tariffs, a $1.3-billion boost to the manufacturing investment tax credit, and a $500-million fund to grow capacity for critical minerals refining. Other investments include $750 million for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education, a billion-dollar expansion of skilled trades training, and over $200 billion in infrastructure spending over 10 years. Critics say the Ford government 2025 budget fails to address Ontarians' most pressing concerns — affordability, climate inaction, economic resilience and growing economic uncertainty driven by US tariffs. While the budget is packed with stimulus measures and support for the industrial and resource sectors, Mahmood Nanji, a policy fellow at Western University's Ivey Business School, says it's unclear how much relief it will actually bring because it lacks details. On the $5-billion 'Protecting Ontario' fund, Nanji said the shortage of specifics is troubling and could lead to mismanagement if the province is forced to deploy it quickly during a crisis. 'This budget doesn't offer the kind of reassurance businesses and workers are looking for,' Nanji said. 'There's no strong message that the government truly has their backs.' The Ford government appears to be counting on the federal government to step in if the economy worsens — an assumption Nanji called risky, especially given ongoing trade tensions. The province's expectation of federal support was clear in the lead-up to the budget, when Ford sent Ottawa a wishlist of his 'nation-building' infrastructure projects. Bethlenfalvy also reinforced this in his budget speech, repeatedly calling on the federal government to backstop Ontario's economic plans. Several of the measures in the budget are intended to solve transportation problems, which the government identified as standing in the way of economic growth. While Nanji welcomed long-term infrastructure investments, he criticized the continued focus on the Highway 401 tunnel, calling it a political project rather than a strategic one. Nanji argued that the gas tax cut and Highway 407 toll removal are poorly targeted and largely benefit higher-income Ontarians, while doing little to help those most in need. Environmental advocates: budget ignores climate crisis and clean energy investment On the environment, Mike Marcolongo, associate director of Ontario programs at Environmental Defence was more blunt. 'It's been called a plan to protect Ontario, but it's not clear where the government's plan is when it comes to protecting clean water, healthy communities and natural ecosystems.' Marcolongo also took aim at the government's continued push to remove bike lanes in major Toronto corridors as part of its budget plans. While advocates are in court trying to stop the removal of bike lanes on University Avenue, Yonge Street, and Bloor, this budget adds Avenue Road and Queen's Park Crescent to the list of lanes slated for removal. 'For a government that claims to look after the 'little guy,' the continued attack on bicycles by budgeting more bike lane removals reveals a lack of interest in supporting the most affordable and environmental choice for short commutes,' Marcolongo said. 'Instead of attacking cyclists and the small businesses that rely on them in Toronto, the Ontario government should focus on real, province-wide congestion solutions.' When it comes to clean energy, Alienor Rougeot, senior program manager for climate and energy at Environmental Defence, said the government is sending mixed messages. While the budget claims to support affordable energy, she says it largely sidelines the most cost-effective solutions — like wind, solar and battery storage. Rougeot also pointed to Bill 17, which she said undermines local energy efficiency rules, leaving Ontarians with higher energy bills and no clear path to reducing carbon emissions. Opposition slams budget as out of touch Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles called it 'a band-aid budget' that delivers 'less relief, and a missed opportunity to strengthen Ontario.' 'Instead of choosing a future where workers and their families can get ahead, the government missed the mark with a budget full of cuts and no new investments in the services that people rely on,' said Stiles in a statement. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the budget 'ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,' and accused the government of prioritizing sprawl-inducing highways over housing, health care and clean energy. Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said the Ford government 'chose to repaint the walls while the roof is caving in.' 'It's infuriating to watch taxpayer money funneled to insider friends, lobbyists and donors while Ontarians are told to settle for less,'Crombie said in a statement. 'This isn't fiscal responsibility. This is political favouritism.' But Bethlenfalvy, in delivering his budget, called for unity across partisan lines. 'We cannot do it alone,' he said. 'It's time to put aside our party stripes, set aside our differences, and work together — not just at the national level, but here at home in Ontario as well.'

A budget of smoke, mirrors and spin won't protect Ontario jobs in the tariff wars: CUPE Ontario
A budget of smoke, mirrors and spin won't protect Ontario jobs in the tariff wars: CUPE Ontario

Business Wire

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Wire

A budget of smoke, mirrors and spin won't protect Ontario jobs in the tariff wars: CUPE Ontario

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The province's largest union condemned the failure of the Ford Conservatives' budget to meet Ontarians' needs with a dramatic expansion of public services that would build communities, create jobs and improve lives. 'Doug Ford still masquerades as Captain Canada. But as far as Ontarians are concerned, 'elbows up' should be about public services, the opportunities they provide and the jobs they create,' said Fred Hahn, president of CUPE Ontario. The union represents 290,000 public sector workers in the province. A recent public opinion poll commissioned by CUPE Ontario showed that Ontarians wanted more funding for public services, an end to health-care privatization, higher corporate taxes to fund vital services, and more job creation through expanded public services. 'To meet the challenges of layoffs, tariffs, and trade wars, the Ford Conservatives have relegated their job creation to tax credits for manufacturers, WSIB rebates for employers, special economic zones, the second-lowest corporate tax rates in the country, and ever-growing contingency and reserve funds. 'But not one of these measures guarantees that a single job will be created. In fact, time after time we've seen business spend this kind of no-strings-attached largesse from government on executive bonuses, stock buybacks and higher dividends for shareholders. And for every 1 per cent drop in the corporate tax rate, the government has $1.9 billion less to spend on services.' Hahn compared this 'vision board' approach from the Ford Conservatives to the benefits of investment in public services: 'The only way for the government to guarantee a job is created is to create one in the public sector. And because the public sector has been starved for years, the need – and the funding – is there. 'This budget follows the pattern the Conservatives have used for years, where they hoard money in contingency funds. But that's not spending, it's not job creation, and it's not good economic planning.' One in five workers in Ontario works in a public sector job; the number increases to one in four when federal public service and municipal jobs are included in the count. 'Like every other budget the Ford government has produced, this one is smoke, mirrors and spin. Only this time it's using the cover of tariffs and trade wars to cover its unwillingness to invest in the things that make life better and more affordable for Ontarians – schools, hospitals, health care, social services, university, stronger municipalities,' said Hahn. 'For the past seven years, we've been hearing the same thing – there's record spending, we're freeing up the economy, life is good. But we talk to each other and to our friends, and families, we know life isn't good, it's deteriorating, and people know their public services are getting worse.' Hahn pointed to indicators, like the fact that 1 in every 16 people rely on food banks in Ontario, or 1 in 7 don't have a family doctor, or hospitals are closing down emergency rooms in record numbers. 'This budget was the Ford government's opportunity to make life better for workers, and they singularly failed in that task. People in Ontario need jobs now; the government has the power to create them. It just needs the will.'

Pre-Budget Poll Shows Ontarians Expect Government to Defend Jobs by Investing in Public Services
Pre-Budget Poll Shows Ontarians Expect Government to Defend Jobs by Investing in Public Services

Business Wire

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Wire

Pre-Budget Poll Shows Ontarians Expect Government to Defend Jobs by Investing in Public Services

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In the run-up to the provincial budget, CUPE Ontario commissioned a public opinion poll to gauge Ontarians' attitudes toward taxation, funding for public services, health-care privatization, and job creation, as well as specifics about recent decisions of the Ford Conservatives. 'Doug Ford and his Conservatives like to say that they're 'for the people' and that they were re-elected to 'defend Ontario jobs and Ontario workers,'' said CUPE Ontario President Fred Hahn. 'Because they were so thin on details, we went directly to Ontarians to ask for voters' opinion on what 'defending' should look like.' From May 13 to 14, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1000 voting-age Ontarians. Of those respondents 81% said the Ford government should invest in public services by ensuring funding keeps pace with inflation and population growth; 80% prioritized maintaining or increasing funding for public services like health care and education, even if it means increasing corporate taxes; 76% believed the provincial government should increase income taxes on individual earnings over $300,000 per year to help ensure adequate funding for essential public services; 70% believed the Ontario government has only one sure way to create jobs: by providing tax money to public sector employers and requiring that the money be used to hire more workers to provide public services. Questioned about private, for-profit delivery of health care, 79% of Ontarians said the Ford Conservatives should stop contracting out our health care to for-profit companies to leave more money available for publicly run health care. On Bill 5 – the power-grabbing, rights-robbing Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act 2025 – 80% of respondents said the Ford government should not create special zones in which businesses or selected projects can be exempt from existing laws. 'The results are clear: Ontarians expect investment in our public services as a way of defending Ontario. They expect a budget that will reflect their priorities,' said Hahn.

Ford's $100B tunnel dream resurfaces, now branded a ‘nation-building' project
Ford's $100B tunnel dream resurfaces, now branded a ‘nation-building' project

Hamilton Spectator

time13-05-2025

  • Automotive
  • Hamilton Spectator

Ford's $100B tunnel dream resurfaces, now branded a ‘nation-building' project

Premier Doug Ford is adding his controversial Highway 401 mega-tunnel to Ontario's official funding wishlist for Ottawa, rebranding the widely-panned idea as a national priority. But critics are again raising the alarm, calling the proposal environmentally reckless, politically calculated and wildly unrealistic in cost and feasibility. The request came in a letter last week to Prime Minister Mark Carney, in which Ford outlined a slate of major projects, including the proposed '401 Express Tunnel' — a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar megaproject he claims would 'significantly ease congestion on the busiest highway in North America, helping to improve our economic competitiveness by getting goods and services to market sooner.' The tunnel, in Ford's description, would dive underground at Brampton and emerge somewhere near Scarborough. Tim Gray, executive director of Environmental Defence, said the tunnel could cause serious ecological harm across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). 'The tunnel would cut through major river valleys, like the Credit, the Humber, the Don and others — all of which are part of the Greenbelt and home to endangered species,' Gray said. 'Construction would also create years of added gridlock. You'll see increased air pollution from vehicles, as many will be stuck idling in traffic due to the chaos — and that could go on for years.' Gray told Canada's National Observer the tunnel's carbon footprint would be staggering, as it would require millions of cubic metres of cement to build. 'That means more gravel and aggregate will need to be extracted from the Greenbelt and surrounding areas, leading to massive amounts of carbon emissions from all the concrete needed to construct the tunnel.' Instead of expanding highways, Gray said Ontario should be reducing car dependency by investing in smarter transit and using existing infrastructure more efficiently. During the provincial election earlier this year, GTA traffic was one of the top campaign issues, with all major parties promising to address it. Ford, known for his large-scale infrastructure promises, unveiled the '401 Express Tunnel' as his boldest proposal — but despite its scale, the plan lacks basic details and a clear timeline. Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, said Ford's inclusion of the 401 tunnel in his letter to Carney may be more about politics than policy. Graefe told Canada's National Observer Ford could be facing resistance within his own government over the tunnel's astronomical cost, and is now testing whether Ottawa might foot the bill. Alternatively, he may simply be signalling to his supporters that the idea is still alive — even if it's unlikely to move forward. If Ottawa rejects the project, Graefe says, Ford can use that outcome to shift blame and save face. 'He can say, 'We have limited resources, and the federal government refused to respond to Ontarians' needs.'' That narrative could help Ford avoid criticism for abandoning the project, while positioning himself as someone who at least tried, Graefe added. These unrealistic requests from premiers, while not uncommon, also carry political risk, Graeffe said. If they are too public or extreme, they can strain federal-provincial relations. In this case, Ford may be following a playbook similar to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith — using large, provocative proposals not just to seek funding, but to position Ottawa as the obstacle. At the same time, Ford's letter aligns with Carney's call for 'nation-building' proposals — giving Ford a chance to claim credit if any project on his list moves forward. While some see the tunnel as political theatre, others believe Ford genuinely thinks it will work — but remains misguided. 'I think Ford genuinely believes that adding new lanes, whether they're in a tunnel or on a wider road … will reduce gridlock,' said Peter Miasek, president of Transport Action Ontario. 'But everybody I talk to about the 401 tunnel just thinks it's the stupidest idea.' Miasek said the plan is flawed financially and conceptually, arguing that it would be extremely costly and ultimately ineffective, as expanding highways does not reduce congestion over time as the new lanes fill with newly-incentivized drivers. Instead, Miasek pointed to a range of faster, more affordable alternatives — including building east-west transit along Highway 407, investing in rapid bus lanes, improving transit operations, and shifting truck traffic to the 407. 'If we give trucks a discount on the 407, that meets Mr. Ford's objective … getting goods and services to market sooner,' he said. Longer-term, he said, the key is to tackle sprawl and reduce car dependency — not expand infrastructure that reinforces it. Miasek also stressed the environmental cost of building such a tunnel through heavily populated, river-filled terrain. 'The noise, the dust, the vibration … that'll be serious,' he said. 'And even if cars go electric, there's still health impacts — tire dust, brake dust, particle emissions.' As for Ottawa, Miasek is skeptical they'll step in. 'Traditionally, the federal government does not get involved in road projects,' he said. 'Look at the 413 — zero federal money.' Abdul Matin Sarfraz / Canada's National Observer / Local Journalism Initiative

Lorne Gunter: Carney unlikely to do anything to ease Alberta sovereignty talk
Lorne Gunter: Carney unlikely to do anything to ease Alberta sovereignty talk

Edmonton Journal

time02-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Edmonton Journal

Lorne Gunter: Carney unlikely to do anything to ease Alberta sovereignty talk

Article content I have just finished my seventh interview on a radio talk show or podcast where the topic has been Alberta separation. Since Monday's federal election, hosts (mostly from Ontario) have been wondering whether the threat of Alberta leaving Confederation is real. The cynic in me is tempted to chalk up this new-found interest in Alberta's grievance level to Ontarians' concern that without Alberta's money they'd be forced to pay themselves for all the big-state programs their MPs in Ottawa have foisted on the entire country.

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