Latest news with #OptimismIndex
Fibre2Fashion
15-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US Small Business Optimism slips in April amid rising volatility: NFIB
US' Small Business Optimism Index fell by 1.6 points to 95.8 in April, marking the second straight month it remained below the 51-year average of 98, according to National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The Uncertainty Index dropped by four points to 92 but stayed significantly above the historical average of 68. The seasonally adjusted data showed that 34 per cent of business owners had unfilled job openings in April, a 6-point decline from March and the lowest since January 2021. The net per cent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 6 points from March to a net 15 per cent (seasonally adjusted), the lowest since last October. This component, along with unfilled job openings, contributed most to the Optimism Index's decline, NFIB said in a press release. In April, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 95.8 in US, below the 51-year average. Key concerns included labour quality and weak sales expectations. Job openings and capital investment plans declined, while inflation concerns eased. Despite ongoing uncertainty, more owners rated their business health as good or excellent. Profit trend improved slightly, signalling cautious optimism. The net per cent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 4 points from March to a net negative 1 per cent (seasonally adjusted). This is the fourth consecutive month real sales expectations declined. A net negative 4 per cent (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, down 3 points from March and the lowest reading in 11 months. Eighteen per cent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next 6 months, down 3 points from March. Nineteen per cent of small business owners identified labour quality as the single most important issue in April, unchanged from March, making it the top concern for the third month in a row. Meanwhile, 14 per cent cited inflation as their main challenge, down 2 points from March and the lowest level since September 2021, placing it third among key concerns. Thirteen per cent of small business owners rated the overall health of their business as excellent, marking a 2-point rise from the previous month, while 56 per cent described it as good, up 3 points. The share of owners reporting business health as fair declined by 4 points to 27 per cent, and those rating it as poor remained unchanged at 4 per cent. A seasonally adjusted 34 per cent of small business owners reported having job openings they could not fill in April, a 6-point decline from March. Among the 56 per cent of owners who were hiring or attempting to hire, 85 per cent said they received few or no qualified applicants. Looking ahead, a seasonally adjusted net 13 per cent of owners plan to create new jobs within the next three months, up one point from March, as per NFIB monthly jobs report. Labour costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners fell 3 points in April to 8 per cent. Seasonally adjusted, a net 33 per cent reported raising compensation, down 5 points from March. A seasonally adjusted net 17 per cent plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 2 points from March. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 21 per cent (seasonally adjusted), 7 points better than in March and the highest reading since March 2023. Among owners reporting lower profits, 38 per cent blamed weaker sales, 14 per cent cited usual seasonal change, 11 per cent blamed the rise in the cost of materials, 9 per cent cited the price change of their product or service, and 8 per cent cited labour costs. 'Uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions,' said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at NFIB. 'While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US small business sentiment declines further in April
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. small-business confidence fell for a fourth straight month in April, with the share of owners reporting job openings declining to the lowest level in more than four years, potentially hinting at a significant labor market slowdown. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 1.6 points to 95.8 last month, making the second consecutive month of a reading below the 51-year average of 98. The index peaked at 105.10 in December amid euphoria following President Donald Trump's electoral victory. It has been declining since then as Trump's chaotic trade policy cast a pall over the economy. The NFIB's Uncertainty Index eased 4 points to 92 last month. The United States and China took a major step towards de-escalating their trade war on Monday, with Washington agreeing to slash duties on Chinese goods to 30% for the next 90 days. Tariffs on U.S. goods imported into China would decline to 10% from 125%. A 10% blanket duty on almost all imports remains in place as do sector tariffs. Last month, 34% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill, down 6 points from March. That was the smallest share since January 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty-nine percent of owners had openings for skilled workers, down 4 points. Unfilled jobs were the lowest in finance and agriculture industries. But workers remained scarce in construction, while front-loading of goods likely boosted demand for labor in the wholesale industry. Goods imports surged to a record high in March. That is unlikely to last as the share of owners planning inventory investment over the coming months fell to an 11-month low. Small businesses have been the main drivers of job gains. The labor market has slowed amid a hesitancy by employers to add more workers. Layoffs, however, remain low and are anchoring the labor market. Economists expect job growth will slow considerably this year as tariffs take a toll on the economy. The share of small business owners expecting better business conditions fell 6 points to 15%. "This component, along with unfilled job openings, contributed the greatest to the Optimism Index's decline," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Inflation is no longer the single most important problem for small businesses amid easing wage pressures. It has been overtaken by taxes. Despite declining job openings, businesses remained concerned about the quality of labor. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US small business sentiment declines further in April
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. small-business confidence fell for a fourth straight month in April, with the share of owners reporting job openings declining to the lowest level in more than four years, potentially hinting at a significant labor market slowdown. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 1.6 points to 95.8 last month, making the second consecutive month of a reading below the 51-year average of 98. The index peaked at 105.10 in December amid euphoria following President Donald Trump's electoral victory. It has been declining since then as Trump's chaotic trade policy cast a pall over the economy. The NFIB's Uncertainty Index eased 4 points to 92 last month. The United States and China took a major step towards de-escalating their trade war on Monday, with Washington agreeing to slash duties on Chinese goods to 30% for the next 90 days. Tariffs on U.S. goods imported into China would decline to 10% from 125%. A 10% blanket duty on almost all imports remains in place as do sector tariffs. Last month, 34% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill, down 6 points from March. That was the smallest share since January 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty-nine percent of owners had openings for skilled workers, down 4 points. Unfilled jobs were the lowest in finance and agriculture industries. But workers remained scarce in construction, while front-loading of goods likely boosted demand for labor in the wholesale industry. Goods imports surged to a record high in March. That is unlikely to last as the share of owners planning inventory investment over the coming months fell to an 11-month low. Small businesses have been the main drivers of job gains. The labor market has slowed amid a hesitancy by employers to add more workers. Layoffs, however, remain low and are anchoring the labor market. Economists expect job growth will slow considerably this year as tariffs take a toll on the economy. The share of small business owners expecting better business conditions fell 6 points to 15%. "This component, along with unfilled job openings, contributed the greatest to the Optimism Index's decline," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Inflation is no longer the single most important problem for small businesses amid easing wage pressures. It has been overtaken by taxes. Despite declining job openings, businesses remained concerned about the quality of labor.
Forbes
08-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Small Business Outlook Soured Ahead of Tariff Announcement
President Trump's tariff plan is weighing on small business confidence. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) After last year's election, small business owners were ready to celebrate. The economy hadn't fallen into recession, inflation was cooling, and consumer spending was holding up. Now the party is on ice. And that was even before Trump's 'Liberation Day' speech promising the stiffest tariffs since 1909. The National Federation of Independent Business reported Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index dropped by 3.3 points in March to 97.4. That's below the 51-year average of 98 and marks the sharpest monthly decline since June 2022. The gauge is now down 7.7 points since registering a post Covid peak of 105.1 in December of last year. The last time the index fell this much, small business owners were bracing for a recession. That downturn never came, but the fear alone was enough to dent optimism. This time, the fear is of a self-inflicted recession. Last month, business owners were trying to figure out what the White House might do next. Survey results show that President Trump's tariff talk was already weighing on confidence, even before the April 2 rollout. No one knew how high the tariffs would go, how they'd work, or what the goal was. And with the levies set to take effect on April 9, few of those questions have been clearly answered. Seven of the ten components of the Optimism Index turned negative. Only responses to questions about current job openings and plans to make capital outlays showed improvement since February. The biggest decliners were around expectations of broad improvements to the economy and higher anticipated sales. No wonder confidence is slipping. More than two-thirds of small and mid-sized business owners in the U.S. depend on imports to make their products or stock their shelves, according to a March 2024 report from FedEx. Quality of labor remained the single most important problem, cited by 19% of respondents, according to the NFIB survey. That number hasn't changed since February. Taxes (which would include tariffs), at 18%, was a close second, jumping from 14% one year ago. Concerns around inflation, however, have cooled, plunging from 25% in March 2024 to 16% this year. The NFIB's Uncertainty Index, which measures how unsure owners are about the future by counting 'don't know' and 'uncertain' responses to six questions about the economy and their own expansion plans, fell by 8 points, though it remains historically elevated. February's monthly reading of 104 was the second highest on record, behind only the 110 level it reached in October of last year. Don't count on uncertainty falling again next month. The next round of survey results will reflect the fallout from President Trump's tariff plan, which has roiled global markets and left small business owners scrambling to understand how it will hit their supply chains, pricing, and long-term plans. MORE FROM FORBES
