Latest news with #OrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's relentless tariff strategy finally crashes into delicate geopolitical reality
President Donald Trump's relentless use of tariffs to coerce foreign counterparts into favorable deals is about to run headlong into the limits of geopolitical reality. Trump's willingness to dramatically escalate the long-running US economic warfare in response to Russia's war on Ukraine is real, advisors say. His threat to accelerate sweeping tariffs on India is certain to come to fruition, they insist. But he also faces the backdrop of a looming deadline to extend a trade truce with the world's second-largest economy that requires a degree of caution as White House deliberations come to a head. 'He's pissed,' one person close to Trump said of his rapidly deteriorating view of Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. 'But he's also aware of the competing priorities here.' Trump faces a unique challenge balancing all of his simultaneous demands: He is threatening punishing sanctions on the Russian energy production that serves as the financial linchpin of Putin's war machine at the same moment he is seeking leverage in trade talks with India while maintaining a fragile trade détente with China. The convergence of conflicting priorities have driven intensive discussions inside the West Wing about the range and scope of the options Trump could trigger as soon as today – and put a significant amount of weight on the meeting between Putin and Steve Witkoff, his trusted foreign envoy, underway in Moscow. Trump has threatened sweeping secondary sanctions on Russian energy that would primarily hit China and India, the two largest purchasers of Russian energy. But he's also considering more tailored options, including sanctions that target specific tankers – known inside the government as the 'shadow fleet' – that are utilized to skirt the existing Western sanctions regime in the transport of Russian oil, two US officials with the knowledge of the matter said. The Biden administration's evolving sanctions actions found success in blacklisting the vessels critical to Putin's sanctions evasion efforts. Secondary sanctions tailored specifically to India in some form have also been discussed, the officials said. Trump feels empowered to trigger the those secondary sanctions that were long weighed by his predecessor, but never deployed due to soaring inflation and concerns about a significant increase in domestic gas prices. That is a problem Trump simply doesn't have right now, as waning global demand and a steady increase in output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies have mitigated the concern about the energy price spikes that bedeviled the Biden administration. For the Trump administration, that has created leverage as frustration with Putin's refusal to come to the table has dashed Trump's envisioned quick end to the three-plus year conflict. Breakdown in India trade talks Those dynamics also played directly into the recent breakdown in long running and intense trade negotiations between the US and India, advisors say. While there is obvious overlap between Trump's escalating threats targeting Russia and his explicit warnings about India's energy purchases, the dispute with the world's fourth-largest economy is specific to the trade talks, the officials say. 'We consider a wide range of options, but this is a situation more of convenient coincidence than overarching strategic long-game,' one of the officials said. Trump has acknowledged as much. 'The sticking point with India is that tariffs are too high,' Trump said in an interview Tuesday with CNBC. Peter Navarro, Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, has called India as 'the Maharaja of tariffs,' underscoring a long-running view that India's expansive protection of its domestic markets has been a significant frustration for Trump and his trade team. As the clock ticked toward Trump's August 1 'reciprocal' tariff deadline and foreign partners offered significant concessions on US market access, India was a notable exception, officials said. 'The president wanted deals that substantially opened markets – everything or near everything,' a senior administration official said. 'The were interested in opening some of their markets, but not nearly ambitious enough to meet the president's view of what would constitute a good deal.' So while India's purchases of Russian energy and Russian military equipment was well known on the periphery, Trump elevated those friction points to the forefront as he sought to pressure Indian negotiators, the official said. Russia complicates China deal, too Any large-scale effort to trigger secondary sanctions, however, would crash directly into the delicate maintenance of US-China trade talks which have seen both countries utilize economic statecraft, sanctions and export controls to exert or ease pressure on the bilateral relationship over the course of months. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned his Chinese counterparts directly, during the third round of face-to-face talks last week, that Trump was serious about secondary sanctions and it was something Chinese officials needed to prepare for in the weeks ahead. But as US and Chinese officials have quietly continued discussions over the technical details of an agreement to extend their existing trade truce, the concern about the impact secondary sanctions would have on those dynamics has been a factor inside the administration, officials say. Trump has yet to officially sign off on an extension, even as his top advisors made clear it was only a matter of time before Trump blesses it. For Trump, who has operated throughout his second term in a perpetual state of running deadlines, that clock is ticking concurrently with his deadline for Putin. The decision on the latter now weighs heavily on the status of the former. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's relentless tariff strategy finally crashes into delicate geopolitical reality
President Donald Trump's relentless use of tariffs to coerce foreign counterparts into favorable deals is about to run headlong into the limits of geopolitical reality. Trump's willingness to dramatically escalate the long-running US economic warfare in response to Russia's war on Ukraine is real, advisors say. His threat to accelerate sweeping tariffs on India is certain to come to fruition, they insist. But he also faces the backdrop of a looming deadline to extend a trade truce with the world's second-largest economy that requires a degree of caution as White House deliberations come to a head. 'He's pissed,' one person close to Trump said of his rapidly deteriorating view of Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. 'But he's also aware of the competing priorities here.' Trump faces a unique challenge balancing all of his simultaneous demands: He is threatening punishing sanctions on the Russian energy production that serves as the financial linchpin of Putin's war machine at the same moment he is seeking leverage in trade talks with India while maintaining a fragile trade détente with China. The convergence of conflicting priorities have driven intensive discussions inside the West Wing about the range and scope of the options Trump could trigger as soon as today – and put a significant amount of weight on the meeting between Putin and Steve Witkoff, his trusted foreign envoy, underway in Moscow. Trump has threatened sweeping secondary sanctions on Russian energy that would primarily hit China and India, the two largest purchasers of Russian energy. But he's also considering more tailored options, including sanctions that target specific tankers – known inside the government as the 'shadow fleet' – that are utilized to skirt the existing Western sanctions regime in the transport of Russian oil, two US officials with the knowledge of the matter said. The Biden administration's evolving sanctions actions found success in blacklisting the vessels critical to Putin's sanctions evasion efforts. Secondary sanctions tailored specifically to India in some form have also been discussed, the officials said. Trump feels empowered to trigger the those secondary sanctions that were long weighed by his predecessor, but never deployed due to soaring inflation and concerns about a significant increase in domestic gas prices. That is a problem Trump simply doesn't have right now, as waning global demand and a steady increase in output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies have mitigated the concern about the energy price spikes that bedeviled the Biden administration. For the Trump administration, that has created leverage as frustration with Putin's refusal to come to the table has dashed Trump's envisioned quick end to the three-plus year conflict. Breakdown in India trade talks Those dynamics also played directly into the recent breakdown in long running and intense trade negotiations between the US and India, advisors say. While there is obvious overlap between Trump's escalating threats targeting Russia and his explicit warnings about India's energy purchases, the dispute with the world's fourth-largest economy is specific to the trade talks, the officials say. 'We consider a wide range of options, but this is a situation more of convenient coincidence than overarching strategic long-game,' one of the officials said. Trump has acknowledged as much. 'The sticking point with India is that tariffs are too high,' Trump said in an interview Tuesday with CNBC. Peter Navarro, Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, has called India as 'the Maharaja of tariffs,' underscoring a long-running view that India's expansive protection of its domestic markets has been a significant frustration for Trump and his trade team. As the clock ticked toward Trump's August 1 'reciprocal' tariff deadline and foreign partners offered significant concessions on US market access, India was a notable exception, officials said. 'The president wanted deals that substantially opened markets – everything or near everything,' a senior administration official said. 'The were interested in opening some of their markets, but not nearly ambitious enough to meet the president's view of what would constitute a good deal.' So while India's purchases of Russian energy and Russian military equipment was well known on the periphery, Trump elevated those friction points to the forefront as he sought to pressure Indian negotiators, the official said. Russia complicates China deal, too Any large-scale effort to trigger secondary sanctions, however, would crash directly into the delicate maintenance of US-China trade talks which have seen both countries utilize economic statecraft, sanctions and export controls to exert or ease pressure on the bilateral relationship over the course of months. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned his Chinese counterparts directly, during the third round of face-to-face talks last week, that Trump was serious about secondary sanctions and it was something Chinese officials needed to prepare for in the weeks ahead. But as US and Chinese officials have quietly continued discussions over the technical details of an agreement to extend their existing trade truce, the concern about the impact secondary sanctions would have on those dynamics has been a factor inside the administration, officials say. Trump has yet to officially sign off on an extension, even as his top advisors made clear it was only a matter of time before Trump blesses it. For Trump, who has operated throughout his second term in a perpetual state of running deadlines, that clock is ticking concurrently with his deadline for Putin. The decision on the latter now weighs heavily on the status of the former.
CNN
3 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Trump's relentless tariff strategy finally crashes into delicate geopolitical reality
President Donald Trump's relentless use of tariffs to coerce foreign counterparts into favorable deals is about to run headlong into the limits of geopolitical reality. Trump's willingness to dramatically escalate the long-running US economic warfare in response to Russia's war on Ukraine is real, advisors say. His threat to accelerate sweeping tariffs on India is certain to come to fruition, they insist. But he also faces the backdrop of a looming deadline to extend a trade truce with the world's second-largest economy that requires a degree of caution as White House deliberations come to a head. 'He's pissed,' one person close to Trump said of his rapidly deteriorating view of Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. 'But he's also aware of the competing priorities here.' Trump faces a unique challenge balancing all of his simultaneous demands: He is threatening punishing sanctions on the Russian energy production that serves as the financial linchpin of Putin's war machine at the same moment he is seeking leverage in trade talks with India while maintaining a fragile trade détente with China. The convergence of conflicting priorities have driven intensive discussions inside the West Wing about the range and scope of the options Trump could trigger as soon as today – and put a significant amount of weight on the meeting between Putin and Steve Witkoff, his trusted foreign envoy, underway in Moscow. Trump has threatened sweeping secondary sanctions on Russian energy that would primarily hit China and India, the two largest purchasers of Russian energy. But he's also considering more tailored options, including sanctions that target specific tankers – known inside the government as the 'shadow fleet' – that are utilized to skirt the existing Western sanctions regime in the transport of Russian oil, two US officials with the knowledge of the matter said. The Biden administration's evolving sanctions actions found success in blacklisting the vessels critical to Putin's sanctions evasion efforts. Secondary sanctions tailored specifically to India in some form have also been discussed, the officials said. Trump feels empowered to trigger the those secondary sanctions that were long weighed by his predecessor, but never deployed due to soaring inflation and concerns about a significant increase in domestic gas prices. That is a problem Trump simply doesn't have right now, as waning global demand and a steady increase in output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies have mitigated the concern about the energy price spikes that bedeviled the Biden administration. For the Trump administration, that has created leverage as frustration with Putin's refusal to come to the table has dashed Trump's envisioned quick end to the three-plus year conflict. Those dynamics also played directly into the recent breakdown in long running and intense trade negotiations between the US and India, advisors say. While there is obvious overlap between Trump's escalating threats targeting Russia and his explicit warnings about India's energy purchases, the dispute with the world's fourth-largest economy is specific to the trade talks, the officials say. 'We consider a wide range of options, but this is a situation more of convenient coincidence than overarching strategic long-game,' one of the officials said. Trump has acknowledged as much. 'The sticking point with India is that tariffs are too high,' Trump said in an interview Tuesday with CNBC. Peter Navarro, Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, has called India as 'the Maharaja of tariffs,' underscoring a long-running view that India's expansive protection of its domestic markets has been a significant frustration for Trump and his trade team. As the clock ticked toward Trump's August 1 'reciprocal' tariff deadline and foreign partners offered significant concessions on US market access, India was a notable exception, officials said. 'The president wanted deals that substantially opened markets – everything or near everything,' a senior administration official said. 'The were interested in opening some of their markets, but not nearly ambitious enough to meet the president's view of what would constitute a good deal.' So while India's purchases of Russian energy and Russian military equipment was well known on the periphery, Trump elevated those friction points to the forefront as he sought to pressure Indian negotiators, the official said. Any large-scale effort to trigger secondary sanctions, however, would crash directly into the delicate maintenance of US-China trade talks which have seen both countries utilize economic statecraft, sanctions and export controls to exert or ease pressure on the bilateral relationship over the course of months. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned his Chinese counterparts directly, during the third round of face-to-face talks last week, that Trump was serious about secondary sanctions and it was something Chinese officials needed to prepare for in the weeks ahead. But as US and Chinese officials have quietly continued discussions over the technical details of an agreement to extend their existing trade truce, the concern about the impact secondary sanctions would have on those dynamics has been a factor inside the administration, officials say. Trump has yet to officially sign off on an extension, even as his top advisors made clear it was only a matter of time before Trump blesses it. For Trump, who has operated throughout his second term in a perpetual state of running deadlines, that clock is ticking concurrently with his deadline for Putin. The decision on the latter now weighs heavily on the status of the former.
Iraqi News
6 days ago
- Business
- Iraqi News
Iraq to increase oil output to 4.22 million bpd in September
Baghdad ( – The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Sunday that Iraq will increase its oil production to 4.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in September. The organization said in a statement that the eight OPEC+ countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 compared to August 2025 required production levels. The decision followed a meeting to evaluate global market circumstances and prospects. The step reflects a strong worldwide economic outlook and solid market fundamentals and is in accordance with the decision reached on December 5, 2024, to commence a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments beginning April 1, 2025. The Deputy Oil Minister for Extraction Affairs, Basim Khudair, said in March that the ministry aims to boost the country's oil and gas production capacity within a well-defined five-year plan. Khudair explained that the government aims to increase oil output to more than six million barrels per day by 2028 or 2029, according to the state news agency (INA). According to Statista, a German online platform that specializes in data collection, Iraq produced over 4.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2023, which was less than the previous year. Between 2005 and 2019, the country's oil output rapidly increased, hitting a record high of more than 4.78 million barrels per day. Since then, Iraq's annual oil output has continuously declined.
Forbes
19-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Will Oil Demand Hit 123 Million Barrels Per Day By 2050 As OPEC Says?
(Photo: Bob Riha, Jr.) Earlier this month, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made yet another attempt to counter energy market chatter about oil demand peaking over the medium- to long-term. At its biennial international seminar in Vienna, Austria from July 9 to 10, the oil producers' group said there was ample evidence in the market for the long-term need for black gold. This need has now reached a point of definitiveness that no one is talking about peak oil demand any more if OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2050 - a fresh assessment report on emerging energy market trends - is to be believed. In the foreword of the report, published just before the conclusion of the seminar, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said: "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," given that "oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives." That said the producers' group actually cut its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years faced with lower growth in China, a spread of electric vehicles in key markets, and an uncertain macroeconomic climate in the OECD countries. However, it lifted its longer-term view. Crude Projections On Oil Demand That view is based on an assumption that oil will remain 'indispensable' in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring the steady output of mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage. As for the projection figures, the OPEC report forecast that oil demand will average 105 million barrels per day this year. It then expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026, and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and continue rising to as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. 'Despite a marginal decline in its share, oil is set to maintain the largest share in the energy mix in 2050, at just below 30%. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to stay above 50% between 2024 and 2050. At the same time, the share of other renewables in the energy mix increases to 13.5% in 2050, up by 10 percentage points from 2024,' the report noted further. India, along with other Asian nations, the Middle East and Africa, are set to be the 'primary sources of long-term oil demand growth.' Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, the OPEC report noted, with India alone adding 8.2 million bpd. 'China's oil demand is projected to increase by less than 2 million bpd over the same time horizon. Moreover, a large part of China's increase is expected to occur over the medium-term, with fewer demand changes expected for the rest of the forecast period.' Not Quite Some Say However, OPEC's long-term oil demand projections don't quite align with what a number of other commentators think. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 before marginally declining as the end of the current decade approaches. Some in the industry also believe peak demand for oil is imminent this decade. Energy major BP said last year that it even may happen sooner than most people expect, including as early as this year under a specific set of circumstances, and given the rapid growth of renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Energy Institute's recent Statistical Review of World Energy 2025, a global report that was once compiled by BP until very recently, did not directly predict a peak, but noted that some regions and nations - especially China - are seeing a slowdown or plateau in oil demand. Given a 2050 horizon is more than two decades and a half away from now, predicting a peaking of oil demand or otherwise may have a direct corelation with the make-up of the global economy and varying regional productivity levels, boosted by digital tools, each year. Maxime Darmet, Senior Economist for U.S., France and the UK at Allianz Trade said: 'In the coming decades, global productivity will be shaped by the adoption of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and the enhancements and efficiencies they bring. This will likely drive up energy consumption, but also the efficient usage of energy. Countries that take the lead here would steal a march on others.' The Allianz Trade economist believes given the time horizon when it comes to predicting energy consumption and which source would dominate 25 to 30 years from now will likely be a tricky guesstimate at best. 'Look at the turmoil the global economy is currently facing in the wake of U.S. tariffs slapped by President Donald Trump. Such developments can change the trajectory of demand (and supply) of most commodities however long or short that impact is. Oil is no exception.' Furthermore, if the future of productivity, and indeed the global economy, is digital and AI driven requiring hyperscale data centers, then many including the likes of the IEA, energy majors Shell and Chevron, believe natural gas will likely be the near- to longer-term energy source that benefits. Be that as it may, few dispute that hydrocarbons will be part of the global economy and its energy mix for a while yet. Just that oil - OPEC's preferred one - might not be as dominant a source as the producers' group expects and hopes it would be. Therefore, the debate over peak oil demand and when it will occur won't be settled just yet.
