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Forbes
10-04-2025
- Science
- Forbes
The Way We Eat Is About To Change—Whether We Like It Or Not
'This transition is going to happen one way or another,' said Paul Behrens, British Academy Global Professor at the University of Oxford. Behrens studies food systems at the Oxford Martin School, where his research focuses on modeling how producers and consumers interact through trade, and how structural reforms might increase the resilience of global food supply chains. Speaking this week at the 2025 Oxford LEAP Conference, Behrens described growing pressures on food systems worldwide. Agriculture is a primary driver of several forms of environmental degradation, including greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and nitrogen pollution. At the same time, food production is increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather, economic shocks, and resource constraints. Evidence of these pressures continues to accumulate. Earlier this year, flooding in Australia submerged an area larger than the United Kingdom. Queensland, which produces almost half of Australia's cattle, reported major livestock losses. These examples illustrate a wider pattern. Economic assessments at the global scale, including a working paper published by the International Monetary Fund warning about the inflationary effects of climate induced droughts on food prices and a study in the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment estimating that under global temperature increases projected for 2035 we should expect annual food inflation of 0.92%-3.23%. Beyond episodic shocks, longer-term structural risks are also becoming clearer. A 2019 study in the journal Agricultural Systems found that the probability of simultaneous crop failures in key agricultural regions increases sharply under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios. Such disruptions, when they affect multiple breadbasket regions at once, pose a growing challenge to the stability of global food trade. In response to these trends, Behrens argued that a shift toward more plant-based diets is not simply advisable, but likely inevitable. This view is grounded not in consumer preference, but in biophysical constraints and economic modeling. As land, water, and energy demands tighten—and as climate disruptions multiply—resource-intensive food systems may simply become unviable at scale. Analyses such as the EAT-Lancet Commission report suggest that dietary shifts can significantly reduce environmental impacts. Work from Behrens' team adds that such transitions also reduce the land, labor, and capital intensity of food production. These factors matter economically: many producers operate with high levels of debt and depend on infrastructure that is increasingly exposed to climate risk—conditions that make the system more sensitive to disruption. He also emphasized the importance of 'policy sequencing'—a strategy in which reforms are introduced incrementally, each lowering the barriers to the next. Examples might include revising agricultural subsidies, adjusting procurement policies, or investing in climate-resilient food infrastructure. According to Behrens, whether dietary change arrives through deliberate reform or reactive disruption remains to be seen, but it is inevitable. The structural pressures are well-documented, and their effects are already visible in both physical and economic terms. Managing this transition, Behrens suggested, will likely require a long-term policy approach that emphasizes resilience, equity, and risk reduction. From a policy perspective, one implication is clear: failure to anticipate these risks may leave decision-makers with fewer—and more costly—options in the future.
The Guardian
11-02-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Britain needs to protect citizens' rights in the race for AI
As global leaders meet at the AI summit in Paris, we are calling on the UK government to urgently develop and adopt a citizen-led UK declaration of digital rights and principles (AI race must be led by 'western, liberal, democratic' countries, says UK minister, 10 February). We agree with the science, innovation and technology secretary, Peter Kyle, when he says: 'Government does have agency in how technology is developed … We need to use that agency to reinforce our democratic principles, our liberal values and our democratic way of life.' We welcome the government's approach to unlocking the economic benefits of AI through the recent AI opportunities plan, but we also need to ensure that our rights and freedoms as UK citizens are protected in digital spaces. In the past two years, countries around the globe have adopted frameworks of digital rights. We must not be left behind. We are asking the government to: Invite the public to have their say in a deliberative process that will shape the declaration. Establish a national digital rights network, including the diversity of civil society; legal experts and academics; tech companies and industry representative bodies, to guide the declaration's development and ensure policy reflects the values of UK citizens. Adopt the declaration and integrate digital rights into future policy decisions. The declaration would not be legally binding, but would provide cohesive and foundational principles to guide policymaking. By developing this, the UK can build trust in our emerging digital policies and help responsible innovation to drive growth that benefits us all. Polly Curtis CEO, Demos; Prof Robert Trager Co-director, Oxford Martin School AI governance initiative; Prof Gina Neff Executive director, Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy, University of Cambridge; Maeve Walsh Director, Online Safety Act Network; Jim Killock Executive director, Open Rights Group; Dr Jeni Tennison Executive director, Connected by Data Have an opinion on anything you've read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.
