24-05-2025
Cannes Awards Predictions: Deadline's Critics Make Their Picks For This Year's Palme D'Or & Other Main Prizes
As the lights go up on the last of the 22 films in Competition this year, Deadline's critics reflect on the potential winners in what must be the strongest lineup in recent years…
PETE HAMMOND
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I don't think I've seen a Cannes Film Festival with so many enthusiastic reviews from the press. Only a handful of films seemed to get totally negative notices and none of them across the board. I walked out on a couple, including Resurrection, the Chinese film. Life is just too short. I also didn't make it through Sebastian Lelio's The Wave, or the Italian women's prison flick Fuori despite liking Italians and its star Valeria Golino. I just wasn't feeling it.
Otherwise, I have to say everything else I saw was above average but some of it overpraised in other quarters. Calm down! I mean, The Secret Agent was good, but not that good. It wasn't only in the Competition where gems could be found. Iraq's first film ever here, The President's Cake — the People's Choice winner over at Directors' Fortnight — was an early favorite of mine, as was Scarlett Johansson's directing debut — Eleanor the Great in Un Certain Regard — starring the incomparable June Squibb, a powerhouse at age 95.
Also, in UCR I was impressed with Nigeria's first-ever Cannes entry My Father's Shadow. In Cannes Premiere I admired Faith Akin's Amrum, and also Splitsville, the hilarious follow-up to The Climb from Michael Angelo Covino. But here are my predictions for the big prizes in the main competition. Just keep in mind the fact that juries are almost impossible to predict and — endless standing ovations and critical praise aside — we don't really know which way the winds are blowing. You can check out the UCR winners here.
Palme d'Or: (Joaquim Trier) The buzziest possibility. It just feels like a winner
Grand Prize: (Jafar Panahi)The backstory of his two imprisonments in Iran aside, this movie was great.
Jury Prize: (Kleber Mendonca Filho)I just figure the jury might react the way critics did — but not give it the top award.
Director: Richard Linklater ()This is more wishful thinking because it was the best film I saw in Cannes.
Screenplay: (Mascha Schilinski)The first film shown for Competition. Reviews were ecstatic, so it will probably get something. I wasn't overwhelmed.
Actor: Sergi Lopez ()Great movie. This veteran actor is due — plus, what an emotional heartbreaking performance!
Actress: Parinaz Izadyar ()Sorry, Jennifer Lawrence. You gave it your all, but this performance has Best Actress written all over it.
DAMON WISE
This has certainly been the strongest Cannes for many years, and it's tempting to think that some of the films singled out for a panning (Julia Ducorneau's Alpha for one) were in the firing line simply because the critics were struggling to find an out-and-out dud to unload on. Personally, I liked Alpha; it didn't always work, but its hallucinogenic quality has stayed with me. Likewise, I went against the flow with Ari Aster's Eddington — I like films that aim high, and this one, though it's definitely way too long, didn't fall as far as many claimed. Ditto Lynne Ramsay's Die My Love; that woman can do no wrong for me.
Once again, this festival is always an astonishing showcase for acting, and 2025 was no exception. The big difference this year was that so many actors became directors for the 78th edition, all of 'em in Un Certain regard, this year's starriest section. Scarlett Johansson pulled off an accomplished indie with Eleanor the Great, but I preferred Harris Dickinson's superb character study Urchin, a great showcase for Frank Dillane as a homeless guy in London. I'm also thinking a lot about Kristen Stewart's brave debut Chronology of Water, which makes me think of her as a Beatnik born after her time.
As Pete says, juries almost literally live on another planet, being sequestered from the likes of us and our soothsaying. But, for what it's worth, here are my guesses…
Palme d'Or: (Joaquim Trier) Joachim Trier has never made a bad film, and now he's gone ahead and made a masterpiece that would make Henrik Ibsen's sideburns curl. It's brilliantly directed, written and acted; just thinking about it makes me cry!
Grand Prize: (Oliver Luxe)The grand slam of the festival; everyone either loves this apocalyptic techno drama, or loves the beginning, or loves the ending.
Jury Prize: Sound of Falling (Mascha Schilinski)This is an amazing film, end of. I saw it twice and look forward to seeing it again.
Director: Bi Gan ()It drove me mad, but there is so much brilliance on show here.
Screenplay: (Sergei Loznitza)After Navad Lapid's incendiary Yes in Directors' Fortnight, this is the most political film in the festival, a Kafkaesque nightmare about Soviet life under Stalin that, somehow, we are all now living through.
Actor: Guillaume Marbeck ()Everything about Richard Linklater's sparkling white wine of a dramedy deserves a prize, but Marbeck's performance as Jean-Luc Godard is the one that stands out most for me.
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence ()Sorry, Parinaz Izadyar. Pete's right; you are terrific in Woman and Child, but Lawrence's performance here has got to be her best to date. And that's some high bar.
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