Latest news with #PGMs
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Sibanye Stillwater Limited on by walter99. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on SBSW. Sibanye Stillwater Limited's share was trading at $9.24 as of July 25th. SBSW's trailing and forward P/E were 4.67 and 10.94, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. A mine entrance, showcasing the precious metals and minerals that this company produces. Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW), a major producer of platinum group metals (PGMs)—platinum, palladium, and rhodium—offers a leveraged play on a sector where years of underinvestment and misjudged demand forecasts have created the setup for an extended upcycle. PGMs are essential for automotive catalysts and jewelry, with catalytic converters alone accounting for 43% of platinum and 84% of palladium demand. Market pessimism has been fueled by overestimates of battery electric vehicle (BEV) penetration, but BEV sales growth in the U.S. and Europe flatlined in 2024, suggesting that internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicle demand—and thus PGM demand—will remain resilient. Supply is structurally constrained: South African PGM miners underspent by ~$18 billion over the last decade, 40% of global supply operates at or below cash costs, and production is forecast to decline through 2029. With long lead times for new supply, a persistent deficit projected by the World Platinum Investment Council, and palladium in deficit until at least 2028, any uptick in demand can drive a sharp price response. Recycling, a secondary supply source, remains depressed post-COVID, adding to market tightness. SBSW's profits, crushed by low PGM prices in 2024, have substantial torque to higher prices, as shown in 2020–2021 when the stock hit $20 on elevated metal prices. Today, at $7, platinum's rebound to $1,250 suggests early signs of a cyclical turn. Risks include economic weakness, faster BEV adoption, and rising recycling supply, but with constrained production, a decade of underinvestment, and platinum already rallying, SBSW presents asymmetric upside if PGM prices sustain an upcycle. Previously, we covered a on Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) by Hugo Navarro in February 2025, highlighting its diversified asset base in PGMs, gold, lithium, and recycling, with growth levers despite weak PGM prices. The stock has appreciated by about 130% as PGM prices rebounded. The thesis still stands, and Walter99 shares a similar view but emphasizes SBSW's leverage to a sustained PGM upcycle. Sibanye Stillwater Limited is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 20 hedge fund portfolios held SBSW at the end of the first quarter which was 18 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of SBSW as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Sibanye Stillwater Limited on by walter99. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on SBSW. Sibanye Stillwater Limited's share was trading at $9.24 as of July 25th. SBSW's trailing and forward P/E were 4.67 and 10.94, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. A mine entrance, showcasing the precious metals and minerals that this company produces. Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW), a major producer of platinum group metals (PGMs)—platinum, palladium, and rhodium—offers a leveraged play on a sector where years of underinvestment and misjudged demand forecasts have created the setup for an extended upcycle. PGMs are essential for automotive catalysts and jewelry, with catalytic converters alone accounting for 43% of platinum and 84% of palladium demand. Market pessimism has been fueled by overestimates of battery electric vehicle (BEV) penetration, but BEV sales growth in the U.S. and Europe flatlined in 2024, suggesting that internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicle demand—and thus PGM demand—will remain resilient. Supply is structurally constrained: South African PGM miners underspent by ~$18 billion over the last decade, 40% of global supply operates at or below cash costs, and production is forecast to decline through 2029. With long lead times for new supply, a persistent deficit projected by the World Platinum Investment Council, and palladium in deficit until at least 2028, any uptick in demand can drive a sharp price response. Recycling, a secondary supply source, remains depressed post-COVID, adding to market tightness. SBSW's profits, crushed by low PGM prices in 2024, have substantial torque to higher prices, as shown in 2020–2021 when the stock hit $20 on elevated metal prices. Today, at $7, platinum's rebound to $1,250 suggests early signs of a cyclical turn. Risks include economic weakness, faster BEV adoption, and rising recycling supply, but with constrained production, a decade of underinvestment, and platinum already rallying, SBSW presents asymmetric upside if PGM prices sustain an upcycle. Previously, we covered a on Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) by Hugo Navarro in February 2025, highlighting its diversified asset base in PGMs, gold, lithium, and recycling, with growth levers despite weak PGM prices. The stock has appreciated by about 130% as PGM prices rebounded. The thesis still stands, and Walter99 shares a similar view but emphasizes SBSW's leverage to a sustained PGM upcycle. Sibanye Stillwater Limited is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 20 hedge fund portfolios held SBSW at the end of the first quarter which was 18 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of SBSW as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Sibanye-Stillwater's call for US tariff on Russian palladium may add to price volatility
LONDON (Reuters) -Sibanye-Stillwater has asked the United States to consider imposing a tariff on Russian palladium imports to support the long-term viability of U.S. supplies, in a move that could increase volatility in palladium prices. The petition filed by Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater adds another layer of uncertainty to prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) after a rally in prices so far this year due to lower first-half production in South Africa and thin liquidity in the spot market. "We believe that Russian palladium imports are being sold below market prices due to various factors, beginning primarily after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022," Sibanye-Stillwater's Chief Executive Neal Froneman said in a statement on the company's website dated July 31. "Obtaining relief from dumped and subsidised Russian imports will give Sibanye-Stillwater, its employees, and the entire U.S. PGM industry, an opportunity to compete on a more level playing field," he added. A final decision on the petition is likely within 13 months. Russia's Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer with a 40% share of global mined output, declined to comment. Sibanye-Stillwater, which has production assets in South Africa and the United States, suffered its second consecutive full-year loss last year after writing down $500 million of its U.S. palladium assets amid low prices. Spot palladium prices are up 31% so far this year, and the outlook for the rest of the year is positive for miners: analysts forecast in a Reuters poll in July that the palladium price would rise in 2025 for the first time in four years, aided by platinum's rally. "Although placing duties on Russian metal would not necessarily impact the market balance of palladium, it could result in the re-routing of global physical metal flows, leading to price volatility," analysts at Heraeus said. Russia and South Africa are the top suppliers of palladium to the United States, according to the Trade Data Monitor. For Russia, China is the second largest buyer of the metal after the United States. Russian palladium imports to the U.S. increased 42% year-on-year to more than 500,000 troy ounces in January-May, according to Heraeus. PGMs, used widely to clean exhausts in gasoline vehicles, have so far avoided both U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian companies over the Ukraine war and any import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Sibanye-Stillwater's call for US tariff on Russian palladium may add to price volatility
LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Sibanye-Stillwater (SSWJ.J), opens new tab has asked the United States to consider imposing a tariff on Russian palladium imports to support the long-term viability of U.S. supplies, in a move that could increase volatility in palladium prices. The petition filed by Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater adds another layer of uncertainty to prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) after a rally in prices so far this year due to lower first-half production in South Africa and thin liquidity in the spot market. "We believe that Russian palladium imports are being sold below market prices due to various factors, beginning primarily after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022," Sibanye-Stillwater's Chief Executive Neal Froneman said in a statement on the company's website dated July 31. "Obtaining relief from dumped and subsidised Russian imports will give Sibanye-Stillwater, its employees, and the entire U.S. PGM industry, an opportunity to compete on a more level playing field," he added. A final decision on the petition is likely within 13 months. Russia's Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer with a 40% share of global mined output, declined to comment. Sibanye-Stillwater, which has production assets in South Africa and the United States, suffered its second consecutive full-year loss last year after writing down $500 million of its U.S. palladium assets amid low prices. Spot palladium prices are up 31% so far this year, and the outlook for the rest of the year is positive for miners: analysts forecast in a Reuters poll in July that the palladium price would rise in 2025 for the first time in four years, aided by platinum's rally. "Although placing duties on Russian metal would not necessarily impact the market balance of palladium, it could result in the re-routing of global physical metal flows, leading to price volatility," analysts at Heraeus said. Russia and South Africa are the top suppliers of palladium to the United States, according to the Trade Data Monitor. For Russia, China is the second largest buyer of the metal after the United States. Russian palladium imports to the U.S. increased 42% year-on-year to more than 500,000 troy ounces in January-May, according to Heraeus. PGMs, used widely to clean exhausts in gasoline vehicles, have so far avoided both U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian companies over the Ukraine war and any import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.
Zawya
17-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
South Africa: Mining production sees 3.7% boost in May 2025
The Minerals Council South Africa has released the mining production results for May 2025. Mining production recorded a 3.7% increase month-on-month in this period. This follows a flat performance in April. Five of the nine major mineral segments registered production increases, with nickel surging by 55.6%, followed by the PGMs (+10.1%), iron ore (+6.6%), diamonds (+3.9%) and chrome (+2.9%). Increasing output The surge in nickel production is a result of an increase in output in one of the five major mines. The increase in PGMs output in May is more a base effect, following production disruptions in April. The other four major sub-sectors recorded the following declines in production: copper (-5.9%), coal (-2.6%), gold (-0.2%) and manganese (-0.2%). The positive overall mining growth performance in May bodes well for the quarterly production of the mining sector. Compared to Q1 2025, which contracted by 4%, Q2 production looks set to increase by more than 3%, resulting in a positive contribution by the sector to overall real GDP performance. Total mining production Year-on-year, total mining production increased slightly by 0.2%. This breaks a streak of six months where annual mining production declined. Six of the major industries recorded increases in May. These include gold (+1.5%), iron ore (+12.5%), chrome (+3.7%), nickel (+19.1%), and diamonds (+7.7%). Together, these sub-sectors represent just under 36% of total mining production. Compared to 12 months ago, production contracted for manganese (-13%), coal (-4.6%), and the PGMs (-0.6%). Year-to-date (January to May 2025), production was down by 4.2% compared to the same period last year. Earnings Minerals sales earnings (measured in current prices) soared by 18.8% in May compared to 12 months ago. Leading the surge was gold sales, which increased by a mammoth 338.7%. This is explained by a 40% increase in the gold price when compared to a year ago. There were also increases in chrome (5.2%), copper (+10.8%) and nickel (+70.2%). Declines in minerals sales year-on-year were recorded in the iron ore (-10.5%), manganese (-9.1%), PGMs (- 15.6%), and coal (-4.2%) sub-sectors. There was a slight increase of 1.1% in total minerals sales – R321bn in 2025 compared to R317bn (2024). Month-on-month (April to May 2025), gold sales increased by almost R4bn, the biggest increase by far of all the sub-sectors. Gold is the safe haven Continued volatility in global markets resulting from the US tariff regime continues to affect demand for minerals, impacting prices. In such an environment, the gold price should remain well supported as gold is viewed as a safe haven investment instrument. Most of South Africa's mineral exports to the US are currently exempt from the tariffs, except for diamonds and iron ore. The tariffs are likely to increase auto prices in the US, which could result in lower total demand. If realised, the decline in demand for autos in the US will likely affect PGMs production in the short- to medium-term via a reduced demand for autocatalytic converters. All rights reserved. © 2022. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
