Latest news with #POLITICO-CitrinCenter-PossibilityLab
Politico
8 hours ago
- Automotive
- Politico
In: EV incentives. Out: Sales mandates.
Presented by With help from Camille von Kaenel and Noah Baustin EV COMPLICATIONS: California drivers don't want to lose their electric vehicle tax incentives, but even voters in one of the bluest states are wary about reviving plans to phase out gas cars. Voters are split down the middle on whether California should stick to its guns on its Trump-blocked plans to phase out sales of gas cars by 2035, according to an exclusive POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll. Only 46 percent of the more than 1,400 registered voters surveyed said they support the policy, while 47 percent said no. Yes, there was an obvious partisan split: 60 percent of Democrats said they backed the phase-out, compared to 40 percent of independents and 31 percent of Republicans. But the results offer a note of caution for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who directed the California Air Resources Board to start writing new vehicle emissions rules after Republicans revoked the state's sales mandates for cars and heavy-duty trucks in June. 'None of us really like the idea of government intervening to take something away from us,' said Dan Sperling, a former CARB member and director of the University of California, Davis' Institute for Transportation Studies. 'That's even the most liberal of us.' Poll respondents are more bought into Newsom's plan to backfill the soon-to-be-defunct $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Nearly two-thirds — 64 percent — said they would support state-funded tax incentives once the federal subsidy ends Sept. 30, as part of the Trump administration's ongoing attacks on clean energy policy. That question again showed a partisan divide, with 80 percent of Democrats saying they back the approach, compared to 60 percent of independent voters and just 43 percent of Republicans. But the overall result bolsters Newsom's push to backfill incentives that the Biden administration used to coax drivers off fossil fuels, as he suggested using cap-and-trade revenues to fund last year and directed state agencies to consider in a June executive order. But Jack Citrin, a veteran political science professor at UC Berkeley and partner on the poll, said a closer look at the poll results shows that Democrats need to keep affordability in mind. He pointed to the fact that 28 percent of respondents said they'd only support new EV incentives if gas prices aren't impacted and another 20 percent said they should be reserved for low-income buyers, reflecting the fact that cost of living was the top concern of voters polled. And 64 percent of respondents said gasoline prices are putting a significant, extreme or moderate burden on their household budgets. 'That reflects a concern with the cost of all of this,' Citrin said. 'Yes, we're for environmental protection. Yes, we're for all of this, just as long as it doesn't cost a lot.' The poll comes the same day that state agencies released a joint report with recommendations for countering Trump's assault, calling on lawmakers to bolster tax incentives, improve charging infrastructure and regulate facilities that attract polluting trucks, but offering few specific timelines or dollar figures. California Air Resources Board Chair Liane Randolph framed the report — which Newsom asked for in his June order — as a first step in the state's defense against a hostile federal government. 'Clean air efforts are under siege, putting the health of every American at risk,' she said during a press briefing. 'California is continuing to fight back and will not give up on cleaner air and better public health.' Sperling called the report a surprisingly 'modest document' and said it lacks the specificity he hoped to see. 'The word I would use is disconcerting,' Sperling said when asked about where California stands in its fight against Trump. — AN Did someone forward you this newsletter? Sign up here! INVEST OR TRADE: The cap-and-trade legislative games are off to the races. Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, who's leading the Assembly's cap-and-trade working group, began circulating on Tuesday her draft legislative language to extend the state's signature climate program through 2045. The proposal, obtained by POLITICO, would also make moderate changes to how the carbon market is run and make several multiyear appropriations of its revenues for wildfire, water, air and energy programs. It's the first detailed proposal to come out of the Legislature and follows Newsom's May proposal to reauthorize the program largely as-is. Lawmakers are now staring down a three-week sprint to resolve their differences and pass a bill on cap and trade, which is not only the regulatory backstop that ensures California meets its climate targets but also a multibillion-dollar revenue engine that's brought in lower-than-expected revenues amid uncertainty about its fate after its 2030 expiration. That uncertainty is set to continue. Ahead of the California Air Resources Board's next quarterly auction scheduled for Wednesday, prices on California's carbon market 'barely responded' to news of the Assembly's proposed amendments, according to Alicia Robinson, CEO of Elevate Climate, a carbon market analytics firm. 'While the Assembly's draft language indicates forward progress, market participants seem to need less talk and more walk before they double down on buying allowances,' she said. Broadly, the proposal — which Irwin is planning to insert into her AB 1207 in the coming weeks — seeks a middle ground between business groups advocating for more free emissions permits in the name of lowering costs and environmental groups advocating for fewer free permits in the name of furthering emissions reductions. It instructs CARB to conduct its own analysis of the risk of businesses — and emissions — leaving the state as a result of the program, and to distribute free allowances accordingly. It also proposes letting businesses offset some of their emissions through investments in carbon dioxide removal technology and natural and working lands and would keep surplus permits off the market to prop up weaker-than-expected auctions. Nick Miller, a spokesperson for Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, said in an email that the proposal 'reflects the Assembly's core values: advancing climate ambition while prioritizing affordability for California working families and businesses.' The Senate working group led by Sen. Monique Limón, meanwhile, has been circulating a draft framework, also obtained by POLITICO, to reduce free allowances over time and add a new border adjustment tax to insulate in-state industries. Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday. — CvK THE DELTA BETWEEN THEM: The war of words over a controversial proposed tunnel to route water south around the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is heating up. Newsom on Tuesday touted the Delta Conveyance Project as the 'most promising action' to protect the state's water delivery system from more extreme storms and droughts, higher temperatures and sea level rise. The occasion: His administration's first-ever report on adapting the State Water Project to climate change released Tuesday. The other occasion: the trailer bill he's backing — with no legislative sponsor yet — to streamline the tunnel's construction. In a now-familiar dance, environmental groups and Delta region lawmakers who oppose the 45-mile-long tunnel's construction because of its impacts on the local ecosystem immediately panned the report, while water agencies that would get its water praised it. The report also lists other strategies to climate-proof the State Water Project, which delivers water to 27 million Californians. Among them: correcting subsidence that's eating away aqueduct capacity, developing 2 million acre-feet of storage south of the Delta, using advanced weather forecasts to manage releases from Oroville Dam and permitting a physical barrier in the Delta to prevent saltwater from creeping up during low water years. — CvK TALK IT OUT: Three Assembly policy committees are coming together tomorrow for an oversight hearing on transportation fuels that will put representatives from oil, labor and environmental justice groups at the table amid a push to overhaul drilling regulations and avert two refinery closures. The joint Natural Resources, Transportation and Utilities and Energy committee hearing should offer an inside look at negotiations on a draft bill from Newsom that would boost oil drilling in Kern County — a proposal that's won plaudits from oil companies and enraged groups that say California is backtracking on its climate goals. The speaker list includes Zach Leary, senior director at the Western States Petroleum Association; Cesar Aguirre, co-director of Central California Environmental Justice Network's air and climate justice team; Mike Smith, chair of the United Steelworkers' national oil bargaining program; and Jeremy Martin, Union of Concerned Scientists' director of fuel policy. The committees will also hear from Benicia Mayor Steve Young, whose city is facing the planned closure of a Valero refinery, and Notre Dame professor Emily Grubert, who's studied clean energy transitions around the country. CARB's Randolph, California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda and California Department of Conservation Director Jennifer Lucchesi will also speak. — AN HOT STUFF: It's August, California is about to be hit with a prolonged heat wave, and energy leaders are braced to protect the state's grid. Sound familiar? In August 2020, similar conditions forced the California Independent System Operator to launch rolling electricity blackouts as the grid was overwhelmed with demand from air conditioners across the state. Two years later, Newsom was forced to send out a statewide emergency alert pleading with residents to turn off their appliances during a September temperature spike. As 2025's heat wave approaches, energy officials are confident (mostly) that the state is out of the woods (almost). 'We are cautiously optimistic about the summer,' the CEC's Gunda said at a Senate Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee hearing Tuesday. 'Even under the conditions that we've experienced in 2020 and 2022, we don't expect any shortfalls in the grid,' Gunda said. 'This is because of the storage capacity that has come online.' After the 2020 blackouts, Californians, from the state's utilities to residents putting the tech in their garages, went on a battery-building bonanza, adding over 12,000 megawatts of energy storage to the grid, bringing the CAISO portfolio to about 13,500 MW. The additional storage helps grid managers supply enough energy to meet demand during the early evening, the trickiest time of the day as solar production plummets at the same time that residents arriving home turn on their appliances. 'Still, a long lasting West-wide heat wave coincident [with] a big potential fire could still put us on the edge, and that's something we want to watch carefully,' Gunda said. — NB PEAK OF THE FIRE: California's No. 1 — in homes at fire risk. The state has nearly 1.3 million homes at moderate or higher wildfire risk, representing $800 billion in reconstruction costs, according to a new report released Tuesday by property data and analytics company Cotality. Second-place Colorado has 318,000 homes at similar risk, representing $142 billion. California also claims eight of the 15 metropolitan areas with the most homes at risk: Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Sacramento, San Francisco, Oxnard, Redding and Chico. — CvK — Suisun City is considering annexing thousands of inland acres from the tech-billionaire backed company California Forever to stay afloat amid rising seas. — See where forecasters are scheduling extreme heat and red flag warnings in California starting Thursday. — The House Oversight Committee is investigating whether the California High-Speed Rail Authority knowingly misrepresented the project's numbers in order to obtain federal funding.
Los Angeles Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Los Angeles Times
Newsom fights fire with fire against Republicans and Trump
As Texas Republicans seek to redraw their congressional maps in favor of Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives, Gov. Gavin Newsom has a power play of his own: redraw California's congressional districts to favor Democrats. With a new special election campaign, Newsom is proposing to temporarily scrap California's independently-drawn congressional lines in favor of districts that support Democrats. Could this political gerrymandering be the thing that saves democracy from Trump's increasingly authoritarian impulses? It's a boundary-pushing gamble that will undoubtedly supercharge Newsom's political star in the short-term, my colleague Julia Wick writes. But a ballot-box flop would be brutal for both the California governor and the Democrats. The 'Election Rigging Response Act,' as Newsom has named his ballot measure, would temporarily scrap the congressional districts enacted by the state's voter-approved independent redistricting commission. Under the proposal, Democrats could pick up five seats currently held by Republicans while bolstering vulnerable Democratic incumbent Reps. Adam Gray, Josh Harder, George Whitesides, Derek Tran and Dave Min, which would save the party millions of dollars in costly reelection fights. But first the Democratic-led state Legislature must vote to place the measure on the Nov. 4 ballot and then it must be approved by voters. If passed, the initiative would have a 'trigger,' meaning the redrawn map would not take effect unless Texas or another GOP-led state moved forward with its own gerrymandering effort. For Democrats like Rep. Laura Friedman (D-Glendale), who appeared alongside Newsom to kick off the special election campaign, there is 'some heartbreak' to temporarily shelving their commitment to independent redistricting. California voters have twice rallied for independent redistricting at the ballot box in the last two decades and many may struggle to abandon those beliefs. A POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll found that voters prefer keeping an independent panel in place to draw district lines by a nearly two-to-one margin, and that independent redistricting is broadly popular in the state. Still, Friedman told the Times she was hearing overwhelmingly positive reactions to the proposal from all kinds of Democratic groups on the ground. 'The response that I get is, 'Finally, we're fighting. We have a way to fight back that's tangible.'' Newsom isn't using political gerrymandering as his only method of combating Trump and the Republicans. His digital team has resorted to trolling Trump on X, mimicking the president's own social media vernacular. Think petty insults and hyperbole with a heavy reliance on the 'caps lock' key. 'DONALD IS FINISHED — HE IS NO LONGER 'HOT.' FIRST THE HANDS (SO TINY) AND NOW ME — GAVIN C. NEWSOM — HAVE TAKEN AWAY HIS 'STEP,' ' one of the posts read last week. Newsom's actions are notably different from how he spent the first months of the new administration. In an attempt to reshape the California-vs.-Trump narrative, the governor hosted MAGA leaders on his podcast and contradicted the Democratic orthodoxy on the participation of transgender athletes in women's sports. But after the president sent California National Guard troops into Los Angeles amid immigration sweeps and ensuing protests in June, Newsom's MAGA conciliation ended. Now he's making a big gamble with his new special election campaign, the kind of big play that could redefine how voters across the country see him. Read the full story here. Today's great photo is from Times intern Annie Goodykoontz at a vigil honoring a man who died while fleeing an immigration raid at a SoCal Home Depot. Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorAndrew Campa, Sunday writerKarim Doumar, head of newslettersJim Rainey, staff writerDiamy Wang, homepage internIzzy Nunes, audience intern How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@ Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on
Politico
5 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Leaked chart reveals winners and losers in California's Democratic gerrymander
Republicans are already denouncing the move. The nine-member California Republican House delegation released a joint statement Thursday pointing to the newest POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey which found strong bipartisan majorities prefer district lines be drawn by an independent commission than lawmakers. 'Governor Newsom is trying to grab power away from the citizens on the commission and give it to Sacramento politicians to gerrymander their own districts,' the statement said. 'Our delegation will stand with the citizens of California and defend their rights as they stand today in our state constitution by opposing Newsom's ballot measure. All Californians, regardless of their political affiliation, should vote NO on this attempt to eliminate the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission's ability to draw fair congressional districts.' The unveiling of the maps as soon as Friday sets the stage for a week-long sprint through the Legislature. Legislators must approve a constitutional amendment to be approved by the voters, as well as companion bills to put the maps in statute as well address the cost of the special election and other logistics. The bills are expected to be heard by the elections committees in both houses on Tuesday and appropriations committees on Wednesday before final floor votes on Thursday. The breakneck speed means that none of the measures can be amended without facing a delay under the 72-hour rule.
Politico
6 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
‘We can't stand back' — Gavin Newsom launches California gerrymander campaign
'In normal times a political party in power would be proud of their accomplishments and they'd be running on their record,' Sen. Alex Padilla said. 'They know they're not just unpopular, they're wrong, and the only hope they have of keeping power next November is to rig the system.' California Democrats have raced to draw a new map that could push a half-dozen Republicans out of office. Democrats who wield supermajorities in the state Legislature are expected to vote next week to put the new lines to voters during a Nov. 4 special election. But victory at the ballot box is far from assured. Newsom's pollster has circulated an internal survey showing the measure starting with only a narrow majority, and polling from POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab found voters overwhelmingly support keeping the state's independent redistricting commission. (The nascent ballot measure would leave the commission in place but effectively override its work by creating new maps to boost Democrats through 2030.) Democrats argue their message of rebuking Trump will resonate with voters and prove more powerful than their qualms about overhauling the state's rules. 'Californians believe in fair maps,' said Rep. Pete Aguilar, who has been deeply involved in the effort as California's senior House Democrat, 'but if Texas and other red states want to move forward with their partisan power grab to rig the elections, we cannot sit on the sidelines.' It will likely be an enormously expensive fight. There are no contribution limits for ballot initiatives, and a highly partisan, off-year brawl centering on Trump and Republican power could draw in national donors — both Democrats itching to stymie Trump and Republicans eager to rebuke Newsom and Democratic leaders.
Politico
6 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Poll: Newsom's redistricting gambit complicated by support for independent congressional maps
California Democrats are plowing ahead with a high-stakes gambit to redraw the state's lines to counter a proposed gerrymander by Texas Republicans spurred by President Donald Trump. California officials are expected to unveil newly redrawn maps at the end of this week that would position Democrats to nab five extra seats, neutralizing the Texas redraw. Newsom, who kicks off the campaign in earnest on Thursday, has cast himself as both reluctant and eager to engage in an escalating redistricting war. He and fellow Democrats have repeatedly emphasized how Texas Republicans started this fight and vowed that any measure to overhaul the districts in California would only be 'triggered' if Texas moves ahead. (Texas Democrats have fled the state to stall the vote on the GOP-friendly maps, although Gov. Greg Abbott said he will continue to call for new special legislative sessions until the Democrats return.) California Democrats have also promised not to do away with the state's independent redistricting commission entirely. Instead, they plan to ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment that would put new maps approved by the Legislature in effect for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 election cycles, according to legislative sources familiar with the draft measure. The independent panel would then resume its role as the state's line-drawer after the 2030 census. The POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey findings underscore why Democrats are stopping short of jettisoning the commission. The poll shows independent redistricting enjoys widespread popularity among the general public, with 64 percent support overall, and across party affiliations. Independent voters were the most enthusiastic backers of the panel, with 72 percent in favor of the commission keeping its line-drawing authority. Support among Republicans and Democrats was roughly equal — 66 percent and 61 percent, respectively — marking a rare spot of bipartisan agreement in this hyper-polarized political moment. 'That surprised me a little bit, given that this is being pushed so heavily by Newsom and by the Democratic Party nationally that we have to combat Texas,' Citrin said. Older respondents were more likely to favor the independent commission, with 77 percent of people aged 80 and older in favor of keeping the status quo. Still, a healthy majority of younger voters, including 62 percent of Gen Z and millennials, supported the commission as well. The independent commission's popularity has grown over time. Californians narrowly approved the creation of an independent panel in 2008, taking the power to draw the boundaries of legislative districts away from lawmakers and giving it to a citizen commission. Two years later, voters had further warmed to independent redistricting, with 61 percent supporting a measure to give the panel authority over congressional lines as well. A measure to repeal the commission was also handily defeated that year. To overcome the popularity of good governance election reforms, Democrats this year are betting on a campaign that will frame the new maps as striking a blow against Trump, who lost the state by 20 points last year. 'I think the voters will approve it. I think the voters understand what's at stake,' Newsom said in a news conference last Friday. 'We live in the most un-Trump state in America.' Last week, legislators were briefed on an internal survey by Newsom's pollster, David Binder, which found a redistricting measure with multiple elements — including designating the new maps as temporary and only valid if Texas proceeds — started with slim majority support (52 percent). It grew in popularity when the messaging became more overtly partisan. Democrats have already signaled that strategy, trotting out talking points about 'fighting fire with fire' and 'rejecting Trump's power grab.' Still, the public wariness of lawmaker-drawn maps captured in the POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll suggests an uphill climb for Newsom and Democrats. 'If this is the starting point, then they will have a struggle,' Citrin said. The survey also looked at the opinion of policy influencers, a group of roughly 500 POLITICO Pro subscribers who are deeply versed in the state's political landscape. Their views are largely in line with the general electorate: 61 percent support the independent commission while 39 percent back lines being drawn by lawmakers. Among influencers, the partisan divide is more stark. Republican insiders, who are likely keenly aware that multiple GOP-held seats are at risk, overwhelmingly support the commission, with 91 percent. The panel also enjoys strong support among 79 percent of independents. Democratic insiders are the sole group to back legislators holding the redistricting pen — and just barely; 51 percent support returning the redrawing powers to lawmakers, while 49 percent want to keep the commission. This project consists of two separate opinion studies of the California electorate and policy influencers in the state, fielded by TrueDot, the AI-accelerated research platform, in collaboration with the Citrin Center and Possibility Lab at UC Berkeley and POLITICO. The public opinion study, made possible in part with support from the California Constitution Center, was conducted in the field between July 28 and Aug. 12. The sample of 1,445 registered voters was selected at random by Verasight, with interviews conducted in English and Spanish, and includes an oversample of Hispanic voters. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus/minus 2.6 percent. The policy influencer study was conducted from July 30 to Aug. 11, among 512 subscribers to POLITICO Pro, and the modeled error estimate is plus/minus 3.7 percent.
