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Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Argentina monthly inflation seen at five-year low in May
BUENOS AIRES, June 10 (Reuters) - Argentina's headline inflation likely slowed in May to its lowest monthly rate in five years, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday. Consumer prices rose 2% last month, according to the average and median estimates of 24 local and foreign analysts, returning to an inflation level the country has not reached since the economy was paralyzed by pandemic lockdowns in the first half of 2020. Inflation has fallen significantly since President Javier Milei took office in December 2023, coming close to 2% in January and February before hitting 3.7% and 2.8% in March and April respectively. A May rate at or below 2%, if confirmed by the national statistics agency on Thursday, would be the best monthly rate of Milei's government. "Although the inflation data for March and April showed a slight acceleration compared to the previous months, in May a new trend begins to become evident", said Julian Orue, economist at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso. In mid-April, Milei's government eased Argentina's exchange rate regime, which, according to analysts, helped ensure a downward trend in inflation. "The downward trend in inflation is holding steady, despite the normal bumps that come with an economic stabilization and normalization process," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC consultancy. The analysts' projections for May inflation ranged between a minimum of 1.6% and a maximum of 2.5%. Argentina's statistics agency INDEC will release official data regarding May inflation on Thursday afternoon (1900 GMT).
Reuters
09-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Argentina's inflation likely sped up again in March
BUENOS AIRES, April 9 (Reuters) - Argentina's monthly inflation rate likely sped up to 2.6% in March, marking the second consecutive month on the rise, a median of analysts polled by Reuters showed on Wednesday. If that figure is confirmed in official data published on Friday, it would put the government further from its goal of bringing the monthly rate down to 1%. Despite a slowed rate in the monthly devaluation of the peso currency, known as the crawling peg, and a curb in spending on utilities, "the monthly inflation rate still hasn't broken the long-awaited 2% barrier," consulting firm Eco Go said in a report. The range of the estimates from the 19 local and foreign analysts varied from 2.3% to 2.9%, with the average pegging the monthly rise at 2.6%. The education, transportation and food sectors likely logged the highest price increases in the month, analysts said. "The seasonality of the month, which marks the end of (the Southern Hemisphere) summer and the return to classes, implies higher rises in sectors like education," Eco Go added. Further uncertainty comes from abroad, with a global trade war threatening to erupt, along with market expectations of a $20 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). That will likely translate into higher prices in coming months, analysts added. Locally, "potential changes to the exchange-rate policy amid upcoming elections add tension to prices" as well, said economist Pablo Besmedrisnik. "On top of the domestic reality and the IMF negotiations, the global outlook is fragile with pressure to devalue emerging currencies," he added. Argentina's National Statistics Institute is set to publish March's inflation data on Friday at 1900 GMT.
Yahoo
17-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Argentina's GDP seen growing in Q4 after shrinking for six quarters
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina's economy is expected to have registered year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, ending six consecutive quarters of year-on-year contraction and further lifting it out of recession, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday. The average forecast from 15 local and international analysts showed Argentina's gross domestic product (GDP) expanding 1.7% in the last three months of 2024. "It's the first positive sign after six consecutive quarters of (year-over-year) contraction," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC Consultants. Besmedrisnik said the positive expectations were boosted by Argentina's recent fiscal and trade surpluses and improved inflation outlook, although domestic and international risks loom. The surveyed analysts' estimates varied between a minimum and maximum GDP growth of 1.1% and 2.2% respectively for the fourth-quarter. However, analysts agreed that Argentina's annual GDP for 2024 as a whole will still show economic contraction, albeit at a lower level than previously expected. A recent central bank survey of analysts forecast economic growth of 4.8% for 2025. Argentina's national statistics agency will publish official GDP data for the fourth quarter on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. local time (1900 GMT).
