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Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
A ‘bold' budget for next FY
EDITORIAL: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb while addressing an event organised by Karandaz Pakistan and Pakistan Banks Association claimed that macroeconomic stability has been achieved. However, this stability, as per the October 2024 documents relating to the approval of the ongoing Extended Fund Facility programme are, is disturbing as the country's vulnerabilities continue to persist. The Fund document notes, 'A large part of the economy is uncompetitive, propped up by the extensive use of protection, subsidies, and tax concessions, which have undermined the tax base. Protectionism, including from new entrants in domestic markets has undermined competition, leading to inefficiency and low productivity. A difficult business environment and weak governance have hindered investments, which remain significantly lower than peer countries, further undermining competitiveness. Economic volatility has only increased over time, with a tight correlation between Pakistan's boom-bust economic outcomes and its macroeconomic policies. The repeated attempts to boost economic activity through fiscal and monetary stimulus have not translated into durable growth, as domestic demand increased beyond Pakistan's sustainable capacity, resulting in inflation and depletion of reserves, given a strong political preference for stable exchange rates. Each subsequent bust has further harmed Pakistan's policy making credibility and investment sentiment.' Aurangzeb further stated that the government is preparing to introduce 'bold measures' in the budget with a focus on strategic direction. One must welcome this orientation that was lacking in previous budgets as the focus was on balancing the books through raising the target revenue to an unrealistic level that was rarely if ever met by the end of the year, and adjusting the shortfall through slashing the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). In addition, domestic and external borrowing was increasingly relied on to meet our external financing needs (read repayment of interest and principal as and when due on foreign debt) as well as the budget deficit targets agreed with the IMF; and in this context it is relevant to note that in the current fiscal year the budgeted external borrowing has not yet materialised, partly due to global factors but partly due to Pakistan's high-risk rating that continues in spite of claims of having achieved economic stability. Next year's foreign borrowing requirements are projected at 19.3 billion dollars, which no doubt would limit the government's capacity to introduce some 'bold measures' unless of course the government is able to slash current expenditure at best or keep it at 2024-25 levels at worst. The minister proceeded to aver that rather than making the math work the government intends to make the budget more strategic. This too must be appreciated though the recent statement by the Finance Ministry delivered during the meeting of the sub-committee of the National Assembly on Commerce should be a source of concern; notably, the acknowledgement that there was a disagreement with the Fund over some key budgetary figures including subsidy allocation. There is overwhelming evidence that Pakistan has almost no leverage with the Fund at present that would allow the authorities an element of phasing out the harsh up-front conditions without proactively exercising leverage through either pension reforms (with the start of employee contributions) and resisting a pay raise for the 7 percent of the workforce which receives a salary at the taxpayers' expense, a policy that no previous administration has been able to implement, and to strictly adhere to the math behind the budget document by adhering to the expenditure and revenue sources identified in the budget. The minister also claimed that Pakistan has achieved macroeconomic stability and emphasised the need for avoiding past mistakes that accounted for the boom-bust syndrome. There is no doubt that in the past the 'sugar high' he referred to was a factor that led the country to repeat the same mistakes over and over again: pumping liquidity into the market (through mainly government expenditure on industrial incentives and subsidies), which led to sustaining an industrial base (that envisages exporting the surplus rather than producing for export) that requires massive imports which, in turn, led to periodic balance of payment issues requiring IMF programme loans. The challenges facing the country's economy are immense and one can only hope that the finance minister stays the course, with full support from all stakeholders, otherwise the country would be pushed deeper into the mire with the prospect of success even more difficult. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Aurangzeb says budget to exhibit ‘bold initiatives'
ISLAMABAD: The federal government is preparing to introduce bold measures in the upcoming budget with a focus on strategic direction, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said Monday. While addressing an event organised by Karandaaz Pakistan and Pakistan Banks Association (PBA) here, the finance minister said that budget is not just about revenue and expenditure, it has to provide the strategic direction of where the economy is, and where it is heading. He added that rather than making the math work, the government intends to make the budget document more strategic. Govt to introduce 'bold measures' in the upcoming budget, says Aurangzeb The federal budget for FY2025-26 will be presented on June 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 will be released on June 9, 2025. Talking about the recent escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India, Aurangzeb said that these are very tense moments. The entire nation has rightly celebrated the way our armed forces and political leadership have stood up against the aggression. Aurangzeb shared that efforts were made to derail Pakistan's engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He said, there was no stone left unturned in terms of ensuring that the meeting with the IMF does not happen. If the meeting does happen, then these items are not on the agenda, whether it is the second tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). However, we are beyond that, and our case was discussed and decided on merit. He said the unity shown by the nation against recent aggression is the same unity needed on the economic front. On macroeconomic stability, Aurangzeb emphasised the need to avoid repeating past mistakes. He said that we have achieved macroeconomic stability in yesteryears and in the previous decades as well, but we have squandered the opportunity. Because it is easy to get into a sugar rush, i.e. pump liquidity into the market, go for consumption-led growth, which triggers balance of payment and FX issues. He said that to break away from the boom and bust cycle, Pakistan needs to stay the course in terms of structural reforms. Aurangzeb shared that the government remains committed to simplifying the tax return filing process for the salaried class. '70-80 per cent of the salaried class do not necessarily hold equity or income portfolios, why should they fill 140-150 measures? 'We are trying to bring it down to nine items, five on the wealth and four on the income tax side.' He said the government wants to implement the simplified process by the end of September. On the SoE reforms, the finance minister admitted that this is one area where we did not do well last year. He said that the government remains committed to accelerating reforms in this sector. He confirmed the PIA transaction has been relaunched and expressed optimism about its completion. On debt servicing, Aurangzeb said in the ongoing fiscal the government debt servicing cost has decreased by Rs1 trillion. 'Next year, we are going to restructure/reorganize our debt management office along the modern lines,' he said. The finance minister was of the view that the ongoing structural reforms would put Pakistan's economy 'on a path of sustainable growth'. Aurangzeb expressed optimism about Pakistan's long-term economic trajectory. Our economy has crossed the $400 billion level. This shows we are moving in the right direction but to become a $3 trillion economy by 2047, we need to mitigate two existential issues, i.e. population and climate. He said four out of the six points under the 10-year Country Partnership Framework inked with the World Bank deal with climate and population. Speaking about the importance of the initiative, Syed Salim Raza, chairperson Karandaaz, said: 'Karandaaz is proud to support Pakistan's financial sector as it transitions toward purpose-driven finance. This training is part of our broader commitment to building the institutional capacity required to align with global investment standards and deliver measurable development outcomes. By strengthening local capabilities in impact measurement and sustainable finance, we are laying the foundation for a more inclusive and resilient financial system.' Addressing the participants, Director Development BHC Islamabad Jo Moir stated, 'This training underscores BHC's long-term engagement with Pakistan's financial sector. A decade ago, we supported the creation of Karandaaz as a special purpose impact finance vehicle. Today, it serves as a lighthouse for the sector, demonstrating scalable models for inclusive and sustainable finance.' The workshop is being led by Alex MacGillivray, executive director at the JIM Foundation and a globally recognised expert in impact measurement. With a career spanning development finance institutions and advisory work international impact investors, MacGillivray has delivered a highly practical curriculum that blended theory with real-world applications. 'The idea was to move beyond traditional credit models and introduce a more purposeful financing approach, one that drives measurable outcomes alongside financial returns,' said MacGillivray. 'With the right institutional momentum and leadership, Pakistan can play a key role in the global impact investing movement.' The training is covering a comprehensive range of topics, including strategic intent, impact governance, portfolio-level impact design, impact at exit and independent validation. Participants are engaging in interactive case studies, peer learning sessions, and scenario-based exercises aimed at translating concepts into actionable strategies. Articulating the sector's commitment to sustainable finance, Muneer Kamal, CEO and Secretary General PBA, said, 'Pakistan's banking sector must lead from the front as we transition towards a more sustainable and impact-driven financial ecosystem. This partnership with MoF and Karandaaz reflects PBA's commitment to strengthening sectoral readiness and aligning capital with long-term national priorities.' This training reinforces the commitment by MoF, Karandaaz and PBA's ongoing efforts to strengthen institutional capabilities in Pakistan's financial sector and support the country's transition toward sustainable, impact-oriented finance. As global standards for responsible investing continue to evolve, Karandaaz remains committed to equipping local actors with the tools and knowledge needed to access and manage development capital effectively. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Servicemen, civilians to get equal pay raise
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Monday that there was no proposal in the budget to increase salaries of the armed forces more than the civilian government employees and assured that the nation's defence needs would be fully met. In a media interaction after attending a seminar, the finance minister also said that India did not leave any stone unturned to derail Pakistan's $7 billion package but it could not succeed. "There is so far no such proposal" for increasing the defence salaries more than that of the civilian employees, the finance minister said, responding to a question. The statement clears the air after rumours swirled suggesting that the government was considering significant increase in the salaries of the armed forces. The government is considering a proposal to increase salaries in the range of 6% to 10% due to low single digit inflation rate. While responding to another question, Aurangzeb said that whatever support the government could provide for meeting the defence needs would be fully provided. "This is about meeting the needs of the country, not just meeting the needs of the armed forces of Pakistan," he added. The finance minister also talked about malicious Indian designs to choke Pakistan's external financing. "There is immense support by the IMF despite the kind of efforts [India made] to derail the IMF programme," he said and added that had there been shortcomings in the implementation of the programme, there would have been some problems. Pakistan's case was discussed and approved on merit, because it met all the quantitative and structural benchmarks, he said. "These are very tense moments. The entire nation has rightly celebrated the way our armed forces and political leadership have stood up against aggression," he continued. "There was no stone left unturned in terms of ensuring that the meeting with the IMF does not happen and if the meeting does happen, then these items are not on the agenda, whether it's the second tranche under the Extended Fund Facility or the $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)," the minister said. "However, we are beyond that, and our case was discussed and decided on merit." Addressing an event, organized by the Karandaaz Pakistan and the Pakistan Banks Association (PBA) in Islamabad, Aurangzeb said that the federal government was preparing to introduce "bold measures" in the upcoming budget with a focus on strategic direction. "We are going to bring some bold measures during the budget for FY 2025-26," he said. He said that rather than making the math work, the government intended to make the budget document more strategic. The federal budget for FY 2025-26 will be presented on June 10, 2025 and the Economic Survey will be launched a day earlier. To yet another question about the delay in concluding IMF talks, the finance minister said that the IMF talks would continue next week virtually, but the main discussions had already taken place. He said that the government had achieved macroeconomic stability in the past too but "we have squandered" the opportunity. "Because it is easy to get into a sugar rush, ie pump liquidity into the market, go for consumption-led growth," which triggered balance of payment and FX issues, he said. To break away from the boom and bust cycle, Aurangzeb said, Pakistan needed to stay the course in terms of structural reforms. He stressed that the government remained committed to simplifying tax return filing process for the salaried class. He added that 70 to 80% of the salaried class did not necessarily hold equity or income portfolios and they should not be required to fill 150 columns. "We are trying to bring it down to nine items, five on the wealth and four on the income tax side." The minister added that the government wanted to implement a simplified process by the end of September. The finance minister admitted that the government could not perform well on the state-owned enterprises reform in the last year but hoped that the agenda would be expedited in the new fiscal year. He said that the PIA transaction had been launched again and expressed optimism about its completion. On debt servicing, Aurangzeb said that in the ongoing fiscal the government debt servicing cost had decreased by Rs1 trillion but stated that it was not a success, as the reduction was because of reduction in the interest rates. "Next year, we are going to restructure and reorganise the debt management office along modern lines," he said. Aurangzeb termed the country's economy crossing the $400 billion mark as a matter of satisfaction. "Our economy has crossed the $400 billion level. This shows we're moving in the right direction", he added. But he argued that to become a $3 trillion economy by 2047, Pakistan needed to tackle the challenges of 2.6% population growth rate and climate change.
Express Tribune
7 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Pakistan's budget FY2025-26 to focus on strategic growth and structural reforms: Aurangzeb
Listen to article Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Monday that Pakistan's upcoming federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26 will introduce bold measures and provide a strategic direction for the country's economy. Addressing an event organised by Karandaaz Pakistan and the Pakistan Banks Association (PBA) in Islamabad. According to a report by Buisness Recorder, Aurangzeb said the budget will not only focus on revenue and expenditure but will also outline the broader economic path ahead. 'We are going to bring some bold measures during the budget for FY2025-26,' he said, stressing the importance of making the budget document 'more strategic' rather than simply 'making the math work.' The federal budget is scheduled to be presented on June 10, 2025, while the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 will be released a day earlier, on June 9. Aurangzeb emphasised the need for export-led growth and expressed satisfaction that Pakistan's economy has surpassed the $400 billion mark, signalling positive progress. He also stated that the international community recognises Pakistan's economic turnaround and the macroeconomic stability the country has achieved. However, Aurangzeb cautioned against repeating past mistakes, saying previous macroeconomic stability efforts had faltered due to 'consumption-led growth' which triggered balance of payment and foreign exchange problems. 'To break away from the boom and bust cycle, Pakistan needs to stay the course on structural reforms,' he said. The minister underlined the government's commitment to ongoing reforms in taxation, energy, and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), along with the right-sizing of the federal government to ensure sustainable growth. He admitted that progress on SOE reforms lagged last year but promised the government would accelerate efforts, including the relaunch of the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) privatisation transaction, which he expressed optimism about. Aurangzeb highlighted plans to simplify the tax return filing process for salaried taxpayers, aiming to reduce the number of required measures from 140-150 to just nine, to be implemented by the end of September. Regarding debt management, the finance minister said that government debt servicing costs have decreased by Rs1 trillion during the current fiscal year. He also announced plans to restructure and modernise the debt management office in the coming year. Aurangzeb noted that Pakistan's long-term economic goals include becoming a $3 trillion economy by 2047, but said this requires addressing critical challenges such as population growth and climate change. He referenced the 10-year Country Partnership Framework signed with the World Bank, highlighting that four out of six key focus points deal with climate and population issues. The minister also commented on recent regional tensions, stating, 'These are very tense moments. The entire nation has rightly celebrated the way our armed forces and political leadership have stood up against the aggression.' He revealed that efforts had been made to derail Pakistan's engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), particularly attempts to block meetings related to financial support. Despite these challenges, Aurangzeb said Pakistan's case with the IMF was ultimately 'discussed and decided on merit.' He urged the same unity shown in recent times of aggression to be applied to the economic front. The IMF ended its recent 10-day talks on Pakistan's fiscal year 2026 budget without a formal agreement, announcing that discussions will continue in the coming days. Nathan Porter, the outgoing IMF Mission Chief to Pakistan, said the talks focused on increasing revenue through improved tax compliance and expanding the tax base, as well as prioritising expenditure. Initially planned to be held in Pakistan from May 13 to 23, the talks started remotely from Turkiye due to India-Pakistan tensions before moving to face-to-face meetings in Islamabad on May 19. Previously, the government postponed the presentation of the federal budget for fiscal year 2025–26 by more than a week, moving it from June 2 to June 10, according to sources in the finance ministry. The delay comes as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is currently on a multi-nation diplomatic tour to express gratitude to friendly countries for their support during recent tensions with India. Meanwhile, the IMF ended its recent 10-day talks on Pakistan's fiscal year 2026 budget without a formal agreement, announcing that discussions will continue in the coming days. Nathan Porter, the outgoing IMF Mission Chief to Pakistan, said the talks focused on increasing revenue through improved tax compliance and expanding the tax base, as well as prioritising expenditure. Initially planned to be held in Pakistan from May 13 to 23, the talks started remotely from Turkiye due to India-Pakistan tensions before moving to face-to-face meetings in Islamabad on May 19.
Business Recorder
08-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Pakistan's banking sector deserves a fairer narrative
In a country gripped by chronic revenue shortfalls and economic instability, one sector quietly shoulders more than its share — yet is frequently criticised. Pakistan's banking sector, the country's largest taxpayer and a critical source of fiscal stability, is often maligned rather than supported. This paradox demands re-examination —and a shift in mindset that continues to distort the public narrative. In 2024, the banking sector, comprising commercial banks, DFIs, and microfinance banks, contributed an astonishing Rs 1.6 trillion to the national exchequer. This includes Rs 856 billion in direct corporate and income taxes, Rs 63 billion in sales and excise duties, and over Rs 685 billion in withholding tax collected and paid. To put this into perspective, that's nearly five times more than what banks paid in 2021. Yet, despite this unmatched contribution, banks continue to face criticism, regulatory unpredictability, and the heaviest tax treatment among all sectors. 'The banking sector contributed Rs 644 billion in taxes in 2023 alone, and in a single day facilitated Rs 30 billion in government revenue. Yet, we are being taxed at rates nearly double other sectors. Taxation must be based on income, not balance sheet size or political expediency. We are partners in progress, not targets for fiscal patchwork.'— Zafar Masud, Chairman, Pakistan Banks Association Banks today pay an effective tax rate of 54 percent, compared to the standard 29 percent paid by most other industries. This disparity is not only disproportionate, it is counterproductive. When institutions that finance infrastructure, businesses, and public services are penalized for their efficiency, the broader economy suffers. Critics often accuse banks of prioritizing government securities over private sector lending. But this ignores Pakistan's underlying economic realities, a persistently wide fiscal deficit, underdeveloped capital markets, and a narrow, undocumented tax base. In FY24 alone, banks financed over 99 percent of the government's budget deficit, ensuring critical expenditures like defence, pensions, and social protection continued uninterrupted. This is not a diversion of resources; it is a stabilising lifeline. Banks are not turning away from the private sector. They are responding rationally to a high-risk environment, where legal enforcement is weak and formal documentation is scarce. Until structural reforms are achieved, sovereign lending remains the most prudent and often regulatorily encouraged option. 'With 54 percent of the banks' income directed to the government, it is only fair that we are treated as partners. Time and again, whenever the government has called upon the banking industry, we have always stepped up, a commitment we will proudly uphold in the best interest of Pakistan. As one of the most transparent sectors of the economy, we remain dedicated to contributing to Pakistan's progress and trust our efforts will be acknowledged.' — Atif Bajwa, Chairman, Pakistan Banking Summit Steering Committee Much of the criticism directed at banks is based on generalizations. The sector collectively employs over 200,000 people and is actively increasing gender diversity under the State Bank's inclusion mandate. While service delivery can always improve, to suggest banks are uniformly exploitative is inaccurate. Moreover, the banking sector is among the most heavily regulated, audited, and transparent in the economy. It is also among the most forward-looking supporting SMES, agri-finance, housing, and digital transformation, even in a volatile economic climate. 'Profitability should not be treated as a red flag; it is a prerequisite for financial resilience and national progress.' The broader issue is this, when a compliant and transparent sector like banking is disproportionately burdened with taxation while vast segments of the economy remain undocumented, the incentive structure becomes distorted. No society can progress when responsibility is concentrated on a few formal sectors while others remain unregulated and under-taxed. Pakistan's banking sector is not asking for applause—it is asking for fairness in taxation and recognition of its role as a partner in national development. It has delivered when it mattered most. A transparent, tax-compliant sector that supports public finance, SMEs, and digital transformation deserves policy consistency—not punitive treatment. It is time for policymakers and the public to do the same: anchor the debate in facts, and shift the conversation from blame to balance. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
