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On a train from Pakistan to Russia via US-sanctioned Iran
On a train from Pakistan to Russia via US-sanctioned Iran

AllAfrica

time24-02-2025

  • Business
  • AllAfrica

On a train from Pakistan to Russia via US-sanctioned Iran

Pakistan Railways Freight CEO Sufiyan Sarfaraz Dogar announced last week that the first Russian-Pakistani freight train service will launch on March 15, transiting across Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The line will facilitate Russian energy and industrial product exports to Pakistan and Pakistan's agricultural and textile exports to Russia, according to reports. This has been a long time in the making and represents the latest milestone in their relations. Here are three top takeaways. Next month's plans show that Russia and Pakistan are prioritizing Iran over Afghanistan as the irreplaceable transit state for expanding their bilateral trade. That's sensible considering continued Pakistani-Taliban tensions, but it also carries risks. Trump has already revived his first administration's 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran and is therefore expected to impose secondary sanctions against all companies that still trade with it without a waiver. Trump's so serious about this that he threatened to modify or rescind the waiver that his first administration extended to India, which has invested heavily in Iran's Chahabar Port, so he'll predictably come down harshly against Pakistan, too. Therein lies the problem since Pakistan has proven in the past that it will comply with American sanctions against Iran, most infamously the one that's obstructing their over-decade-long pipeline plans. So, it will likely do the same with the US' latest sanctions crackdown and, therefore, abandon this route for trade with Russia. Russian-Pakistani trade could be conducted more effectively in terms of cost and time by relying on Afghanistan as their transit state, but that's not possible so long as Pakistani-Taliban tensions persist. In a nutshell, those tensions boil down to the Taliban suspecting that Pakistan's de facto military junta is secretly allied with the US against it. Pakistan, meanwhile, accuses the Taliban of backing Pashtun and Baloch terrorist groups (perhaps as an asymmetrical means of restoring the lopsided balance of power). Although Russia is better positioned than anyone else to mediate between them, it hasn't yet formally done so, nor might it ultimately succeed in resolving the security dilemma at the core of their disputes. That's regrettable since remaining reliant on Iran carries with it the abovementioned risk that Pakistan capitulates to US secondary sanctions pressure. The self-evident solution is to patch up their problems for the greater good of Eurasian connectivity, but that's a lot easier said than done. Laudably, the will exists on both sides to expand bilateral trade in spite of the described obstacles. Quite clearly, there is still a faction/school of the Pakistani establishment that is serious about diversifying their country's economic dependence on China and testing the limits of its traditional political dependence on the US, each by means of Russia. This suggests that higher-ups are hedging their bets a bit on both. From the Russian side, there's a consensus on the need to comprehensively develop relations with non-traditional partners like Pakistan at this historic phase of the global systemic transition to multipolarity, though nobody should be under any illusions about this ever being done at India's expense. The combined effect of the above mentioned imperatives is that the parties are sincerely attempting to make good on their economic agreements from last year in pursuit of their complementary interests. The impending launch of the first Russian-Pakistani freight train service across Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan is a big deal, but the obstacles posed by Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran and continued Pakistani-Taliban tensions might limit bilateral trade. The best-case scenario would, therefore, be for Pakistan to defy the US on Iran, patch up its problems with the Taliban and thus rely on two trade routes to Russia instead of just one, but that might be asking too much of its de facto military junta. This article was first published on Andrew Korybko's Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.

Pak-Russia freight train on cards
Pak-Russia freight train on cards

Express Tribune

time20-02-2025

  • Business
  • Express Tribune

Pak-Russia freight train on cards

A 2024 agreement between Pakistan and Russia has laid the groundwork for the ambitious freight train project, which will provide a more efficient and cost-effective trade route connecting South Asia with Central Asia and Russia. photo: file Listen to article Pakistan Railways Freight Chief Executive Officer Sufiyan Sarfaraz Dogar has announced that an international freight train service to Russia is expected to commence operations by March 15 this year – an initiative aimed at boosting regional trade with Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. He sought containerised cargo commitments from the entire business community, particularly from members of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma), to the new service. He emphasised the significant potential for enhancing trade among Pakistan, Russia and transit countries including Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. He shared details of Pakistan-Russia freight train facility during his visit to the Aptma office on Wednesday. The CEO informed businessmen that the freight train would operate from Qasim International Container Terminal and Pakistan International Container Terminal, offering container capacity options for 22 tons and 44 tons. "This rail link marks a significant step forward in regional trade infrastructure," he remarked. Taftan station in Pakistan will serve as the key entry point for goods moving along the international corridor. Issues related to deployment of Customs officials at Taftan entry point have almost been resolved. He told Aptma members that with the beginning of freight service, Russia would be able to export oil, natural gas, steel and industrial goods directly to Pakistan. In return, Pakistani exporters will gain improved access to Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russian markets for textile, food and agricultural products including rice, wheat and cotton. He mentioned that Pakistan and Russia had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for cooperation in the railway sector during the 27th Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2024. The agreement laid the groundwork for this ambitious project, which promises to establish a more efficient and cost-effective trade route connecting South Asia with Central Asia and Russia. Aptma Chairman Kamran Arshad, while highlighting the strengths and potential of Pakistan's textile industry, noted that the sector was on an upward trajectory, with an ambitious export target of $50 billion to be reached within five years. He praised the government for creating an enabling environment for the growth of textile industry, which led to increased exports and foreign exchange earnings for the country. Arshad underlined the need for developing adequate infrastructure and providing value-added services to facilitate trade. He recommended the automation of freight handling and cargo delivery to reduce costs and dwell time, the establishment of dry ports along the route to further reduce costs, a barter trade agreement between Pakistan and Russia on the pattern of Pakistan-Iran barter trade deal and the strengthening of banking channels with Russia. He gave assurances to Pakistan Railways Freight that Aptma would extend full cooperation for the new rail service that could revolutionise trade dynamics in the region.

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