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Asia Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Asia Times
NATO faces make-or-break decision on a post-US future
NATO is facing a pivotal moment in its history. Ahead of its June 24-25 summit in The Hague, NATO is weighing up whether it can truly continue to count on US support (and membership), whether it will become a European-only organization, or whether it has a future at all. This suggests a massive shift for the intergovernmental organization that sits at the heart of defense and security for Europe, and beyond. The past year has changed everything. Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric has become increasingly vociferous and disrespectful, undermining both the organization itself, and the other 31 NATO member countries, which include Germany, France, Canada, Turkey, the UK, Sweden and Norway. Add to this the Trump administration's embrace of international isolationism, and the potential, consequential loss of clear US backing for the alliance, all of which highlight the organization's historical dependence on the US. This is what makes the June 2025 summit so critical. It is a make-or-break opportunity to unveil a plan for NATO's wholesale transformation, or an event conclusively marking its obsolescence. The plan itself is simple: build – or rebuild – NATO as a possible Europe-only endeavor. If this plan becomes reality, historians of European security and defense may spot earlier parallels for NATO with the original Western European Union (WEU). The WEU was the European defense security structure established in 1954 under the Paris Accords, which helped to redefine relations with West Germany. Ultimately subsumed into both NATO and EU governance structures, the WEU's prime goal at the time was to bolster the European content of the Atlantic alliance. There is a deep irony in Trump's bluster about NATO states paying more towards their defense. The US has, for decades, been sanguine at best, and hostile at worst on almost every form of European defense autonomy, from basic operationss established by the EU to more ambitious strategies. Instead, the US has insisted almost exclusively on increased defense spending by other NATO members, improved interoperability between the various national forces, but all 'in furtherance of a US-dominated alliance', rather than a more authentically US-European approach to safeguarding both European and American interests, according to Max Bergman, a former senior adviser to the US State Department. What is the future of NATO? If the US is now reducing its involvement in NATO, or abdicating entirely, the only option for NATO is to reduce its dependence on the US, and in doing so, to focus more on Europe. A clear mandate is needed to ensure that being US-less does not render NATO itself useless. Without a mandate, opportunistic space would quickly open up for an aggressive Russia. Trump made clear early in his first administration that he was no fan of NATO, and argued that its funding structure should no longer overburden the US. In his second administration, Trump has been even clearer, has variously threatened to pull US troops from NATO joint exercises, reduce US security commitments to NATO as a whole, remove some or all of the 80,000 US troops on permanent rotation in Europe and vastly reduce the US's contribution to NATO's central budget of US$5 billion. These threats are now repeated routinely by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and others in the Trump administration. This has profoundly rattled NATO as an institution and its individual member states. As NATO's own records show, from 2023 onward, there have been major increases in European defense spending. But the opportunity to keep spending commitments high, as well as overhaul the organzsation to meet Ukraine's demands and defense opportunities for the EU as a whole – which could have been nailed onto NATO's 75th anniversary summit in 2024 – did not materialize. There are pros and cons of a new Europe-focused approach for NATO, and these will work themselves out in the final five-to-ten-year plan, which is being prepared ahead of the June summit. For some, building a European defense mission within NATO is an opportunity to plot a new and more sustainable course for NATO, rather than trying to shore up an expanding US-shaped hole. Spending increases that reduce NATO's perceived helplessness, or reliance on the US, may also be a benefit. For others, the removal of US command and control, hardware, software, intelligence and much more from NATO is a futile endeavor that will leave the organization in pieces at best, and present Russia with a golden opportunity for continued eastern aggression at worst. The signals from Washington remain confusing. Trump's suggestion of a sudden and total US withdrawal from European defense was tempered in April by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's suggestion that Trump remained supportive of NATO but also demanding expanded spending commitments (these demands vary from 2.5% to 5% of GDP), and for other members to take on far greater responsibility for developing NATO's capabilities. Many members now support the emerging 'coalition of the willing', led by France and Britain, to underwrite a force and secure a post-conflict deal for Ukraine. In figuring out the current provision of military force, including logistics and intelligence capacities in addition to air, land and sea forces, NATO members are aiming to remove the US's presence and fill the vacuum with European assets over a decade. The task is colossal, and not without risks. NATO does not want an overnight abdication of the US, as it currently relies far too heavily upon US capabilities, such as long-range precision missiles, and crucially, heavy-lift aircraft, which are vital in shifting armored forces around the continent rapidly. NATO also wants a clear plan, which new member Finland has emphasized as crucial, to prevent an abrupt and disjointed transition that Russia could exploit. A new vision must be set out by the end of June in order to deal sensibly with ongoing defense spending commitments, reworked governance structures, and possible planned responses to the war in Ukraine. Scrapping NATO is unnecessary and leaves Europe – and the US, if the White House could but see far enough ahead – open to innumerable threats and consequences. Even without the US, NATO provides a valuable structure for security cooperation in Europe. Strengthening European capabilities within NATO, rather than creating an entirely new defense structure, makes sense. Amelia Hadfield is head of Department of Politics, University of Surrey This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Free Malaysia Today
4 days ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Strong chance average warming will top 1.5°C in next 4 years
The World Meteorological Organisation says there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024. (Envato Elements pic) GENEVA : The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is a 70% chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5°C international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN's weather and climate agency. 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,' said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.' The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels – and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5°C. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) – the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5°C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70% chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5°C. 'This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5°C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s,' said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. 'I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100%' in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024. Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. (AFP pic) Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44°C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39°C, and projects 1.5°C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2°C warming now on the radar Although 'exceptionally unlikely' at 1%, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2°C of warming. 'It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions,' said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. 'It is shocking' and 'that probability is going to rise'. He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. 'Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52°C, and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. 'We've already hit a dangerous level of warming,' with recent 'deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada,' said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. 'Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy.' Davide Faranda, from France's CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: 'The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy.' Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon.
Malay Mail
4 days ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
UN warns world is barrelling past 1.5°C climate limit as planet heats up
GENEVA, May 29 — The United Nations warned Wednesday there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,' said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.' The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels — and to 1.5°C if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) — the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5°C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5°C. 'This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5°C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s,' said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. 'I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 per cent' in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade. This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44°C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39°C, and projects 1.5°C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2°C warming now on the radar Although 'exceptionally unlikely' at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2°C of warming. 'It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions,' said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. 'It is shocking,' and 'that probability is going to rise'. He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. 'Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52°C (126F), and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. 'We've already hit a dangerous level of warming,' with recent 'deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada,' said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. 'Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy.' Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon. — AFP
CNA
5 days ago
- Climate
- CNA
UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5°C in next 4 years
GENEVA: The United Nations warned on Wednesday (May 28) that there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels - and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5°C. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) - the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5°C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5°C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5°C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 per cent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024. LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44°C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39°C, and projects 1.5°C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2°C WARMING NOW ON THE RADAR Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2°C of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking" and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. "DANGEROUS" LEVEL OF WARMING Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52°C, and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Davide Faranda, from France's CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: "The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy."
Asharq Al-Awsat
5 days ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
UN Says 70% Chance that 2025-2029 Average Warming Will Top 1.5C
The United Nations warned Wednesday there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," AFP quoted the WMO's deputy secretary-general, Ko Barrett, as saying. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade. This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite.
