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The Diplomat
25-07-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
Implications of ISKP's Declaration of War Against the Baloch Liberation Army
ISKP is weaker than the BLA in Balochistan. That could restrain it from attacking the latter in the immediate future. On July 20, the Voice of Khorasan, a pro-Taliban and anti-Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) media outlet, claimed that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) had eliminated the last remaining ISKP fighters in Balochistan's Mastung district. This was preceded by a 36-minute Pashtu-language video put out by Al Azaim Foundation, the ISKP's propaganda arm, on May 25, detailing a BLA raid in Mastung that killed 30 ISKP fighters. In the video, ISKP vowed retaliation against the BLA, other Baloch separatist groups, as well as Baloch and Pashtun nationalist groups like the Baloch Yakjehti Council (BYC) and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM). Since its return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban regime has carried out ruthless crackdowns on ISKP both at the operational and ideological levels. It arrested and killed several of ISKP's top commanders and leaders. Simultaneously, the Taliban launched Al-Mirsad, a multilingual online portal, which provides robust ideological rebuttals of ISKP's ideological propaganda along with running reports of the Taliban's crackdown against the ISKP. These developments forced ISKP to relocate its assets and fighters across the border in Pakistan. In Pakistan, ISKP has a strong presence in Bajaur and Mastung districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, respectively. It was natural for the terror group to set up its presence in Mastung as claimed in the May 25 video. Balochistan is crucial for ISKP for two reasons. First, Balochistan is home to key anti-Shia and anti-Iran Sunni extremist groups, such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jaish al-Adl. In the past, ISKP has leveraged its alliances with these groups to survive and persist. Second, Balochistan's strategic location at the confluence of South and Central Asia makes it a key transit and logistical hub for ISKP. In the last couple of years, ISKP has recruited from Central Asia and carried out attacks in Russia, Iran, and Turkiye. The terror group's network stretches from Turkiye and Iran to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia through Balochistan. Reportedly, ISKP fighters transit through Balochistan to travel between these countries and beyond. In March, the arrest in Pakistan of Mohammad Sharifullah, the mastermind of the Abbey Gate attack, along with the 48-member cell of ISKP responsible for the overseas attacks, revealed the terror group's growing footprint in Balochistan. More recently, in a joint operation, Pakistani and Turkish authorities arrested a key operative of ISKP, Ozgur Altun alias Abu Yasir At-Turki, from Balochistan. He was closely linked to Al-Azaim Media Foundation and acted as a moderator and disseminator of its Turkish and English content. In short, ISKP's presence in Balochistan has been building up for the last few years. Despite being in ideologically opposite camps, Baloch separatists and ISKP hitherto showed tactical shrewdness by not opening a front against each other. Their pact of non-aggression was consistent with the past pattern when Lashkar-e-Jhangvi also avoided fighting Baloch separatist groups. Reportedly, ISKP's fighters coexisted with BLA militants in Mastung until they were gunned down in a BLA attack in March. Prior to that, both groups remained tight-lipped about their secret pact and refrained from verbal or physical clashes. It is not uncommon for ideologically divergent groups to engage in covert tactical pacts against a common adversary. Both the BLA and ISKP had an incentive to tolerate each other in order not to provide any counterterrorism advantage to the Pakistani law enforcement agencies. Their pact of non-aggression shows that at times ideological narratives can be misleading unless they are seen together with the ground conditions or local contexts in which they operate. While declaring war against Baloch separatists in Balochistan, ISKP has engaged in ideological critique of territorial nationalism, ethnonationalist politics, and democracy. It has accused Baloch separatist groups of exploiting the suffering of Baloch masses for to advance their separatist and ideological agendas. At the same time, it has accused the Mahrang Baloch-led BYC and the Manzoor Pashteen-led PTM of hypocrisy and opportunism. ISKP's declaration of war against Baloch separatists can have serious implications for Balochistan's security landscape. However, it will not be easy for ISKP to fight the BLA, as it is outgunned and outnumbered by the latter in Balochistan. Nevertheless, ISKP, numerical disadvantages notwithstanding, has successfully used suicide terrorism against the operationally stronger Taliban in Afghanistan. It will use the same modus operandi in Balochistan. The BLA's counterresponse can be expected to further weaken the already fragile ISKP in Balochistan. ISKP has still not recovered from the two major setbacks it suffered in March, i.e., the arrest of Mohammad Sharifullah and his cell as well as the BLA's attack on its fighters. Hence, the ISKP is unlikely to engage in tit-for-tat violence with BLA anytime soon. At any rate, if ISKP attacks the BLA and fighting ensues between the two terror groups, it will increase the level of violence in Balochistan, where the security situation is already volatile. At the same time, if ISKP targets the political rallies of BYC, as it has warned, it will deter people from launching protests. Any BLA-ISKP inter-group clashes will ease counterterrorism challenges for Pakistan's security institutions in the short-term. In conflict zones, fighting between terrorist groups is tactically advantageous for counterterrorist forces. It also becomes easier for security institutions to infiltrate and gather information about terrorist groups when they are engaged in fighting. This information can be used for decapitation raids. ISKP's secret pact of non-aggression and its eventual declaration of war against the BLA shines light on the complex nature of militant and security landscapes in Pakistan. While circumstantial evidence pointed to some form of tactical accommodation between the two terror groups, it was hard to establish these linkages with conclusive evidence until the May 25 video. Keeping that in view, an accurate understanding of the inner workings of militant groups makes the job of security institutions easier. Therefore, to stay ahead of terrorist groups, Pakistani security institutions must invest their energy and resources in building their intelligence capital.


Memri
21-02-2025
- Politics
- Memri
Afghan Writer Criticizes Trump's Gaza Plan: U.S. 'Is The Only Power On The World Stage And A Crazy Businessman Issues Nazi-Like Orders'
In a recent Pashtu-language article, Afghan writer Mohammad Hashim Shaheen criticized U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal for the United States to take ownership of Gaza, but added that Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack in Israel introduced a fundamental change in the Middle East in which great powers have become irrelevant. [1] The article, titled "Can America/Trump Really Expel Residents From Gaza?" was published by Shahadat, a media outlet belonging to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the former mujahideen commander and chief of Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan. "I believe that Hamas's resistance, steadfastness, and the unparalleled sacrifices of the people of Gaza have changed the game and independence [movement]. The U.S., Israel, and the Arab countries have now become largely irrelevant players in the Palestinian issue," wrote Shaheen. He added: "Israel has no alternative but to retreat. It may not even be possible for Israel to return to the 1967 borders, that is, to a two-state solution, in the next decade or two. Allah willing!" An illustration accompanying the article. Following are excerpts from the article, as translated from Pashtu: "No Doubt, One Of The Miraculous Aspects Of October 7 [Hamas Attack In Israel] Is That I Think It Emboldened The Arab Rulers To Some Extent; The Dictators Of Egypt And Jordan Also Clearly Reject Trump's Proposal" "Can America/Trump Really Expel Residents From Gaza? "Over the past few days, there has been a lot of media coverage of [U.S. President Donald] Trump's remarks about the residents of Gaza. Trump's character is that of a funny dictator; his interesting personality is that sometimes he jokes on stage and his level of sensitivity is at a record low; sometimes he shows himself to be so [in]sensitive that all he has to say is: 'I am your Lord, the Most High.' In fact, in some cases he has spoken equivalent to this sentence... "The question is: Can he really make the people of Gaza immigrate to other countries? Will this emigration be permanent or temporary? Of course, this conspiracy can be permanent, not temporary. What will be the role of the United Nations during this period? How much validity will his proposals have? These and dozens of other similar questions require detailed answers... I will try to make a brief comment on them. "First of all, I will say that nothing is far from such superpowers; they do not know spiritual values, nor anything called the shame of history. They only mention historical humiliations and defeats so that this shameful substance does not end with the peoples or rulers of Third World-grade countries and do not [counter-]interact with them similarly. Otherwise, their shameful defeats in Vietnam, Mali, Cuba, Iraq, and Afghanistan and their atrocities in places like Japan are not hidden from anyone. "No doubt, one of the miraculous aspects of the October 7 [Hamas attack in Israel] is that I think it emboldened the Arab rulers to some extent. The dictators of Egypt and Jordan also clearly reject Trump's proposal; this can be considered an interesting change... As for whether they can do this, we will say, in response, if the Israel moved a span beyond the 1967 borders, it was an act executed at the behest and will of the United States. The first and second Nakba were carried out by the Zionists with support of the same people [Americans]; they pave every way for them; there is no question of sanctions against [Israel], nor is there any suspension of aid. "One president says to stop giving them heavy bombs and the next president lifts the same sanctions [2] on the first day [in office]... This is what the whole world is observing; but what will the people without media and dumb people say about it? The leaders of the Islamic world are their own [the West's] brothers. "They (Britain and the U.S.) acted similarly during the League of Nations. Later, when that organization was replaced by the United Nations, they trampled on all the proposals of this new organization and even took actions through this organization that are still a black mark on its face today. Today Trump says that the U.S. is leaving this organization; yesterday he repeated that he will soon part ways with the UNHCR; he also expressed his intention to cut off USAID's aid. "In fact, the U.S. no longer feels the need for veto power or even the need for these powerless organizations themselves. It is the only power on the world stage and a crazy businessman issues Nazi-like orders in the name of the president... Why would they give millions, or billions of dollars in aid to the international community; they have already gotten the entire world to surrender with the help of their corrupt officials and traitorous generals. Anything can be expected from those whose history is based on oppression." "Trump Tried To Convince The Extremist Jews With His Warnings... That It Is Possible To Achieve Their Goals Without War; This Could Be One Of The Motivations Behind The [Proposed] Expulsion Of The Residents Of Gaza" "I would like to briefly mention a comment from a brother that I liked; the two comments may not be related, of course, these are assumptions and speculations, so each one should be heard: "Trump knows that Gaza has been fighting for 15 months; it has been bombed with gunpowder equal to three of the atomic bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima, and they have lost more than 70,000 people, and they still have not surrendered. While American ground forces have been fighting side by side with them (11 million Israelis [sic] are also American citizens). Of course, the Americans were openly involved in organizing the airstrikes and surveillance and reconnaissance; therefore, they cannot be wrong in assessing these facts. It was an amazing war... "The question then is why is Trump making such unacceptable decisions, while even Trump's closest allies, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, are clearly rejecting this decision? As far as I understand, Trump has two goals in this: "The first goal is to protect the policy of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu (known as Bibi). To understand this, one must examine Israel's domestic politics. Netanyahu's Likud party has only 32 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament (Knesset); his government is supported by four other small extremist parties; National Security Minister Ben-Gvir resigned immediately after the draft ceasefire agreement was implemented in the cabinet. Six members of his party 'Otzma Yehudit' also left the government (Netanyahu's party's majority in parliament was reduced from 68 to 62), as did Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has seven senators. His political party 'National Religious Party-Religious Zionism' warned the prime minister that if the war does not resume immediately after the first phase of the ceasefire, they will also leave the union. "If that happens, Netanyahu's government will collapse. That's why he traveled to Washington before the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations; and that's why Trump tried to convince the extremist Jews with his warnings – that is, he made them understand that it is possible to achieve their goals without war; this could be one of the motivations behind the [proposed] expulsion of the residents of Gaza. A screenshot of the article "The second purpose of Trump's warnings could be that he wants to create a favorable atmosphere for the Abraham Accords-II, which he has already initiated. Since the Gaza war after October 7, the prestige of Arab dictators has been greatly damaged, and they are now in no position to normalize relations with Israel. Therefore, the refusal of these dictators to accept such decisions could gain them support in their own nations. "Then, while normalizing Israeli-Arab relations, they can give their nations the lollipop that it is not a loss to engage with Israel in order to prevent the U.S. from occupying Gaza permanently and to thwart the process of expelling all Palestinians. (See the official statements issued by the Emirates, Morocco, and Bahrain when they recognized Israel!) "But I believe that Hamas's resistance, steadfastness, and the unparalleled sacrifices of the people of Gaza have changed the game and independence [movement]. The U.S., Israel, and the Arab countries have now become largely irrelevant players in the Palestinian issue. Israel has no alternative but to retreat. It may not even be possible for Israel to return to the 1967 borders, that is, to a two-state solution, in the next decade or two. Allah willing." [1] (Afghanistan), February 6, 2025. [2] In late January 2025, President Trump lifted the hold that President Biden had placed on the supply to Israel of 2,000-pound bombs. January 25, 2025.