Latest news with #PaulBloxham
Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australian dollar holds steady ahead of expected rate cut, kiwi flat
SYDNEY: The Australian dollar held gains on Monday, with markets bracing for a central bank policy meeting this week where a rate cut is widely expected, though uncertainty remains how policymakers will communicate on future policy. The main global risk event this week will be US consumer prices on Tuesday, which could justify or break the case of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Trade issues loom large with a U.S. tariff deadline on China due to expire on Tuesday amid expectations it will get extended again. The Aussie was little changed at $0.6525, having finished last week with a 0.8% gain. It is holding above the 55-day moving average of $0.6511, although resistance lies ahead at $0.6541. The kiwi dollar also slipped 0.1% to $0.5953, after rising 0.6% last week. It faces resistance at $0.5950 and $0.5970 while near-term support is at $0.5931. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point to 3.6% on Tuesday, having shocked markets by holding steady just last month as policymakers wanted to wait for the quarterly CPI data to confirm inflation was slowing. Australian second quarter CPI came in below expectations, strengthening market expectations for a rate cut. 'With… guidance from the RBA last month that the surprise pause in July was about the 'timing, not direction' of the cash rate trajectory, a cut this week seems highly likely,' said Paul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities at HSBC. 'That said, growth is in an upswing, and very weak productivity means that only a modest pick-up in growth has left the economy close to fully employed and operating close to its full capacity. We expect the RBA to be cautious in its rhetoric about the likelihood of further cuts.' Also key this week is the jobs data on Thursday, where expectations are centred on a rise of 25,000 jobs in July and the jobless rate likely held steady at 4.3%. That followed a surprisingly soft employment report for July and any unexpected weakness could fuel criticism that the RBA may be behind the curve. Swaps imply a quarter-point cut has been fully priced in, with a very slim chance of an outsized half-point move. The RBA is most likely to skip a move in September, before cutting again in November. Across the Tasman Sea, markets imply around a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to 3.0% on August 20, with a further move to a floor of 2.75% early next year.
Perth Now
29-07-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Aussie shares dip ahead of key inflation readout
The local share market has slipped ahead of a key inflation readout that could determine whether the Reserve Bank cuts rates next month. Near midday on Tuesday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 29 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 8,666.8, while the broader All Ordinaries had fallen 35.9 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 8,927.6. Traders may have been taking something off the table ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' release of second-quarter consumer price index data on Wednesday morning. HSBC chief ANZ economist Paul Bloxham said the bank expects the readout would show the RBA's preferred inflation metric to print at 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 2.7 per cent year-on-year, which HSBC sees as allowing the RBA to trim rates in August. But if trimmed mean inflation comes in at higher than that, an August rate cut would be less likely, Mr Bloxham said. In the US, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is widely expected to leave rates on hold when it announces its latest decision early on Thursday Australian time, but its commentary will be closely scrutinised for a clue whether a rate cut might be possible in September. At midday every ASX sector was down except consumer discretionary, which had edged 0.1 per cent higher. The heavyweight mining sector was the biggest mover, dropping 0.5 per cent, with losses for all of the iron ore giants. Fortescue had fallen 1.6 per cent, BHP had slid 0.3 per cent and Rio Tinto had dipped 0.2 per cent. In the energy sector, Viva Energy had fallen 8.0 per cent after the OTR and Reddy Express petrol station owner said a big drop in tobacco sales had led to a 10 per cent decline in overall convenience sales in the first half. But Woodside was up 1.1 per cent as Australia's largest oil and gas producer announced it would assume operatorship of the offshore Bass Strait production assets it co-owns with ExxonMobil Australia. Uranium producers were down for a second day, with Paladin dropping 6.7 per cent and Boss Energy falling another 8.3 per cent, on top of Monday's 44 per cent plunge following word of issues at its Honeymoon mine in SA. In the financial sector, three of the four big retail banks were lower. CBA was down 0.2 per cent, ANZ had slipped 0.6 per cent and Westpac had dropped 0.3 per cent. NAB was the outlier, very marginally higher at $37.78. The Australian dollar had slipped further against its strengthening American counterpart, buying 65.28 US cents, from 65.50 US cents at 5pm on Friday.
Sky News AU
20-06-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent since January
HSBC Australia Chief Economist Paul Bloxham discusses the Australian unemployment rate and its impact on the labour market. 'I think the main thing to focus on is the unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate is steady at 4.1 per cent, which is quite a low rate,' Mr Bloxham told Sky News host Ross Greenwood. 'The unemployment rate's tracking sideways, the labour market's still actually fairly tight.'
News.com.au
19-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Boosting productivity will strengthen the Australian private sector
HSBC Australia's Chief Economist Paul Bloxham emphasises the need to address productivity to boost the 'What we need is the private sector to start to revive and to recover,' Mr Bloxham told Sky News host Ross Greenwood. 'How do you get the private sector to pick up … part of it's going to be helped along by interest rates coming down a bit. 'Unless we lift productivity … competition, tax reform, the regulatory environment, all the things that will help to lift the private sector.'
News.com.au
19-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent since January
HSBC Australia Chief Economist Paul Bloxham discusses the Australian unemployment rate and its impact on the labour market. 'I think the main thing to focus on is the unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate is steady at 4.1 per cent, which is quite a low rate,' Mr Bloxham told Sky News host Ross Greenwood. 'The unemployment rate's tracking sideways, the labour market's still actually fairly tight.'
