Latest news with #PaychexSmallBusinessEmploymentWatch
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Job market is holding its breath amid tariff truce with China
Job openings and hiring increased slightly in April ahead of the Friday employment report from the Labor Department, which will be a major data point for the Federal Reserve as it determines the path for interest rates that undergird economic activity. Like other economic factors, including capital expenditures and consumer spending levels, employment conditions are in a holding pattern as companies wait to see where U.S. tariff policy lands amid President Trump's ongoing trade war and his fragile truce with top trading partner China. Job openings increased to 7.4 million in April from 7.2 million in March, according to data released Tuesday. New hires increased by about 170,000, while separations also increased, with about 100,000 workers leaving their roles. While many sectors reported fewer job openings in April, bigger industries including professional services and health care more than made up for the reductions in the smaller sectors. Job openings have been fluctuating between 7 million and 8 million per month for about a year now, after descending rapidly off a postpandemic high around 12 million. There's now one open job for every job seeker in the economy. The rate of people quitting their jobs — viewed informally as a general measure of job security — decreased slightly to 2.0 percent in April from 2.1 percent in March as a share of total employment, while contracting by 0.1 percent compared to last year. The quits rate has remained within a 0.1-point range of 2.0 percent since May 2024. Economists are seeing the modest variation in the context of increased policy uncertainty. 'Modest gains in job openings and layoffs suggest that employers are proceeding cautiously with headcount decisions despite elevated uncertainties about the economy and policy,' wrote Noah Yosif, economist with the American Staffing Association, in a Tuesday commentary. Trump summoned Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a meeting last week as the president's negotiations continue. Many economists, including those in the Fed, have been predicting higher inflation as a result of Trump's tariffs, and Trump has been telling Powell to lower interest rates to support the economy. This comes even as inflation has been falling in recent months, dropping to a 2.1 percent annual increase in the April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — close to the Fed's target rate of 2 percent. Powell said in May he's looking for indications unemployment could rise in response to Trump's tariffs. 'I am watching for signs that the labor market could cool as tariff increases begin to weigh on economic activity,' he said. Hiring within small businesses is also in a holding pattern. Job growth as measured in the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch held steady across May and April, delivering flat employment growth since the beginning of the year. 'Despite the rapidly changing news cycle, the underlying labor market remains fundamentally healthy,' Paychex CEO John Gibson said Tuesday in a statement. Many economists are viewing the employment situation, along with many other economic variables, as a direct consequence of developing White House trade policies. China and the U.S. paused triple-digit tariffs on each other last month, which brought the overall U.S. tariff level down from around a century-high 25 percent and closer to 15 percent. This improved many economic forecasts. Revisions by Deutsche Bank to predictions made in April showed lower unemployment and inflation, and revisions for growth were higher. 'The key innovation to the outlook over the past month has been a quicker de-escalation in trade tensions, particularly with China,' analysts for the bank wrote in a Monday note to investors. Despite the trade détente with China, tensions flared this week as both sides traded barbs. 'The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, has totally violated its agreement with us. So much for being Mr. Nice Guy!' Trump wrote on his social media website on Friday. China on Monday said the U.S. violated the deal by issuing export control guidelines for artificial intelligence hardware, stopping chip-design software to China, and revoking Chinese student visas. In its statement, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the U.S. of unilaterally provoking new economic and trade frictions. Despite the accusations and targeted actions, neither country reimposed its triple-digit tariffs. In the minutes of their latest meeting to set interest rates — which notably took place before the trade truce was announced on May 12 — Fed bankers saw unemployment rising 'substantially' through the end of the year in the context of trade policy. 'The labor market was expected to weaken substantially, with the unemployment rate forecast moving above the staff's estimate of its natural rate by the end of this year and remaining above the natural rate through 2027,' the minutes for the May 6 meeting read. Economists say the Friday jobs report will show if employers are feeling positive or negative about the economic and policy outlook. 'Should Friday's jobs report reveal a significant contraction in non-farm payroll growth relative to its three-month average, it would confirm employers are adopting a more pessimistic outlook toward future headcount decisions,' Yosif wrote. Bankrate economic analyst Mark Hamrick said he expected 125,000 jobs to be added to the economy in the May report and that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.2 percent, where it is now. 'Despite ongoing uncertainties from tariffs and broader economic volatility, new unemployment claims have remained relatively restrained,' he observed in a Tuesday analysis, adding that the Fed would 'continue in 'wait and see' mode' when it came to upcoming interest rate decisions. As employment conditions and other economic variables have been held in abeyance during the trade reset, wage growth has been moderating, dropping to a 3.77 percent increase from 3.83 percent in March, off a recent high of 4.15 percent in November of last year. Total inflation-adjusted hourly compensation was flat in the first quarter after falling to a 1.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter of last year. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
5 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Job market is holding its breath amid tariff truce with China
Job openings and hiring increased slightly in April ahead of the Friday employment report from the Labor Department, which will be a major data point for the Federal Reserve as it determines the path for interest rates that undergird economic activity. Like other economic factors including capital expenditures and consumer spending levels, employment conditions are in a holding pattern as companies wait to see where U.S. tariff policy lands amid President Trump's ongoing trade war and his fragile truce with top trading partner China. Job openings increased to 7.4 million in April from 7.2 million in March, according to data released Tuesday. New hires increased by about 170,000 while separations also increased, with about 100,000 workers leaving their current roles. While many sectors reported fewer job openings in April, bigger industries including professional services and healthcare more than made up for the reductions in the smaller sectors. Job openings have been fluctuating between 7 million and 8 million per month for about a year now, after descending rapidly off a postpandemic high around 12 million. There's now one open job for every jobseeker in the economy. The rate of people quitting their jobs — viewed informally as a general measure of job security — decreased slightly to 2.0 percent in April from 2.1 percent in March as a share of total employment, while contracting by 0.1 percent compared to last year. The quits rate has remained within a 0.1-percentage point range of 2.0 percent since May of 2024. Economists are seeing the modest variation in the context of increased policy uncertainty. 'Modest gains in job openings and layoffs suggest that employers are proceeding cautiously with headcount decisions despite elevated uncertainties about the economy and policy,' Noah Yosif, economist with the American Staffing Association, wrote in a Tuesday commentary. Trump summoned Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a meeting last week as the president's negotiations continue. Many economists, including those in the Fed, have been predicting higher inflation as a result of Trump's tariffs, and Trump has been telling Powell to lower interest rates to support the economy. This comes even as inflation has been falling in recent months, dropping to a 2.1-percent annual increase in the April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – very close to the Fed's target rate of 2 percent. Powell said in May that he's looking for indications that unemployment could rise in response to Trump's tariffs. 'I am watching for signs that the labor market could cool as tariff increases begin to weigh on economic activity,' he said. Hiring within small businesses is also in a holding pattern. Job growth as measured in the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch held steady across May and April, delivering flat employment growth since the beginning of the year. 'Despite the rapidly changing news cycle, the underlying labor market remains fundamentally healthy,' Paychex CEO John Gibson said in a Tuesday statement. Many economists are viewing the employment situation, along with many other economic variables, as a direct consequence of developing White House trade policies. China and the U.S. paused triple-digit tariffs on each other last month, which brought the overall U.S. tariff level down from around a century-high 25 percent and closer to 15 percent. This improved many economic forecasts. Revisions by Deutsche Bank to predictions made in April showed lower unemployment and inflation, and revisions for growth were higher. 'The key innovation to the outlook over the past month has been a quicker de-escalation in trade tensions, particularly with China,' analysts for the bank wrote in a Monday note to investors. Despite the trade détente with China, tensions flared this week as both sides traded barbs. 'The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, has totally violated its agreement with us. So much for being Mr. Nice Guy!' Trump wrote on his social media website on Friday. China on Monday said the U.S. violated the deal by issuing export control guidelines for artificial intelligence hardware, stopping chip-design software to China, and revoking Chinese student visas. In its statement, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the U.S. of unilaterally provoking new economic and trade frictions. Despite the accusations and targeted actions, neither country reimposed its triple digit tariffs. In the minutes of their latest meeting to set interest rates — which notably took place before the trade truce was announced on May 12 — Fed bankers saw unemployment rising 'substantially' through the end of the year in the context of trade policy. 'The labor market was expected to weaken substantially, with the unemployment rate forecast moving above the staff's estimate of its natural rate by the end of this year and remaining above the natural rate through 2027,' the minutes for the May 6 meeting read. Economists say that the Friday jobs report will show whether employers are feeling positive or negative about the economic and policy outlook. 'Should Friday's jobs report reveal a significant contraction in non-farm payroll growth relative to its three-month average, it would confirm employers are adopting a more pessimistic outlook toward future headcount decisions.' Bankrate economic analyst Mark Hamrick said he expected 125,000 jobs to be added to the economy in the May report and that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.2 percent, where it is now. 'Despite ongoing uncertainties from tariffs and broader economic volatility, new unemployment claims have remained relatively restrained,' he observed in a Tuesday analysis, adding that the Fed would 'continue in 'wait and see' mode' when it came to upcoming interest rate decisions. As employment conditions and other economic variables have been held in abeyance during the trade reset, wage growth has been moderating, dropping to a 3.77-percent increase from 3.83 percent in March, off a recent high of 4.15 percent in November of last year. Total inflation-adjusted hourly compensation was flat in the first quarter after falling to a 1.2-percent increase in the fourth quarter of last year.
Business Wire
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Wire
U.S. Small Business Job Growth Remains Largely Unchanged in May
ROCHESTER, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In May, job growth in U.S. small businesses remained largely unchanged from April, according to the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch. The Small Business Jobs Index, which is a primary component of Paychex's monthly employment report for businesses with fewer than 50 employees, has continued to show steady, flat employment growth throughout 2025. Meanwhile, hourly earnings growth for U.S. small business workers reached a four-year low at 2.77% in May. 'Despite the rapidly changing news cycle, the underlying labor market remains fundamentally healthy, and small business owners have remained resilient,' said John Gibson, Paychex president and CEO. 'While inflation concerns remain for business owners, wage inflation in small businesses continued to moderate and reached a new four-year low in May.' Jobs Index and Wage Data Highlights At 99.81 in May, the national Small Business Jobs Index continued to report steady, flat employment growth in 2025. National hourly earnings growth (2.77%) for small business workers continued its slow descent to a new four-year low (May 2021: 2.74%). Three-month annualized hourly earnings growth (2.45%) fell to its lowest level since December 2020 (1.66%). The Midwest (100.19) has represented the strongest region for small business employment growth for the past year, while the West continues to lag all regions and reported an index level below 100 for the 14th consecutive month in May. Construction dropped 0.68 percentage points to a jobs index of 99.69 in May, marking its lowest level since March 2021. Job growth in the Leisure and Hospitality industry remained last among sectors for the fourth consecutive month at 98.18 in May. More Information For more information about the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, visit the website and sign up to receive monthly Employment Watch alerts. *Information regarding the professions included in the industry data can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. About the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch is released each month by Paychex, Inc. Focused exclusively on businesses with fewer than 50 workers, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends and examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients, this powerful industry benchmark delivers real-time insights into the small business trends driving the U.S. economy. The jobs index is scaled to 100, which represents no year-over-year change in job growth among same store businesses. Index values above 100 represent new jobs being added, while values below 100 represent jobs being lost. About Paychex Paychex, Inc. (Nasdaq: PAYX) is the digitally driven HR leader that is reimagining how companies address the needs of today's workforce with the most comprehensive, flexible, and innovative HCM solutions for organizations of all sizes. Offering a full spectrum of HR advisory and employee solutions, Paychex pays 1 out of every 11 American private sector workers and is raising the bar in HCM for nearly 800,000 customers in the U.S. and Europe. Every member of the Paychex team is committed to fulfilling the company's purpose of helping businesses succeed. Visit to learn more. Visit to learn more.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
U.S. Small Business Job Growth Remains Largely Unchanged in May
Hourly earnings growth reaches new four-year low ROCHESTER, N.Y., June 03, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In May, job growth in U.S. small businesses remained largely unchanged from April, according to the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch. The Small Business Jobs Index, which is a primary component of Paychex's monthly employment report for businesses with fewer than 50 employees, has continued to show steady, flat employment growth throughout 2025. Meanwhile, hourly earnings growth for U.S. small business workers reached a four-year low at 2.77% in May. "Despite the rapidly changing news cycle, the underlying labor market remains fundamentally healthy, and small business owners have remained resilient," said John Gibson, Paychex president and CEO. "While inflation concerns remain for business owners, wage inflation in small businesses continued to moderate and reached a new four-year low in May." Jobs Index and Wage Data Highlights At 99.81 in May, the national Small Business Jobs Index continued to report steady, flat employment growth in 2025. National hourly earnings growth (2.77%) for small business workers continued its slow descent to a new four-year low (May 2021: 2.74%). Three-month annualized hourly earnings growth (2.45%) fell to its lowest level since December 2020 (1.66%). The Midwest (100.19) has represented the strongest region for small business employment growth for the past year, while the West continues to lag all regions and reported an index level below 100 for the 14th consecutive month in May. Construction dropped 0.68 percentage points to a jobs index of 99.69 in May, marking its lowest level since March 2021. Job growth in the Leisure and Hospitality industry remained last among sectors for the fourth consecutive month at 98.18 in May. More Information For more information about the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, visit the website and sign up to receive monthly Employment Watch alerts. *Information regarding the professions included in the industry data can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. About the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch is released each month by Paychex, Inc. Focused exclusively on businesses with fewer than 50 workers, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends and examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients, this powerful industry benchmark delivers real-time insights into the small business trends driving the U.S. economy. The jobs index is scaled to 100, which represents no year-over-year change in job growth among same store businesses. Index values above 100 represent new jobs being added, while values below 100 represent jobs being lost. About Paychex Paychex, Inc. (Nasdaq: PAYX) is the digitally driven HR leader that is reimagining how companies address the needs of today's workforce with the most comprehensive, flexible, and innovative HCM solutions for organizations of all sizes. Offering a full spectrum of HR advisory and employee solutions, Paychex pays 1 out of every 11 American private sector workers and is raising the bar in HCM for nearly 800,000 customers in the U.S. and Europe. Every member of the Paychex team is committed to fulfilling the company's purpose of helping businesses succeed. Visit to learn more. Visit to learn more. View source version on Contacts Media: Tracy VolkmannPaychex, Public Relations(585) 387-6705tvolkmann@ @Paychex Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Wire
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
U.S. Small Business Job Growth Remains Consistent in April
ROCHESTER, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--According to the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, job growth in U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees ticked up slightly in April, gaining 0.27 percentage points to an index level of 100.02. The Small Business Jobs Index, a primary component of the Employment Watch report, has averaged 99.99 over the past 12 months, indicating little change in small business labor market over the last year. Hourly earnings growth for U.S. small business workers, meanwhile, slowed to its lowest level since May 2021 at 2.82%. 'Our April jobs data signals a small business labor market that remains stable as business owners navigate the evolving macroenvironment,' said John Gibson, Paychex president and CEO. 'We are seeing no signs of a recession in our data as many small business owners are keeping their workforce levels consistent. Many leaders appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach to hiring until the macroenvironment settles and they have a better understanding of how any changes will impact their short and long-term growth.' 'As businesses continue to face new and ongoing challenges, we remain steadfast in our mission to help them succeed,' Gibson added. 'Our recent acquisition of Paycor unlocks even more opportunities for us to help organizations of all sizes manage their workforce during an uncertain time.' Jobs Index and Wage Data Highlights The Small Business Jobs Index gained 0.27 percentage points to 100.02 in April and has averaged an index level of 99.99 over the past 12 months. Hourly earnings growth for workers slowed to its lowest level (2.82%) since May 2021. Weekly hours worked growth (-0.17%) remained negative in April despite one-month annualized growth of 2.62%. All four regional jobs indexes improved in April, led by a 0.81 percentage-point gain in the Midwest. The Midwest remains the top region for small business job growth for the 11th-straight month. Ohio spiked 2.24 percentage points to an index level of 101.94 in April. Ranked first among states for the first time since reporting began in 2014, significant job growth gains in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities in the state helped push Ohio to the leader position. With an index level of 102.35, Minneapolis reported strong job gains again in April and topped the state rankings for the second consecutive month. Professional and Business Services improved 0.82 percentage points to a jobs index level of 100.36, marking the best one-month gain among sectors in April. More Information For more information about the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, visit the website and sign up to receive monthly Employment Watch alerts. *Information regarding the professions included in the industry data can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. About the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch is released each month by Paychex, Inc. Focused exclusively on businesses with fewer than 50 workers, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends and examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients, this powerful industry benchmark delivers real-time insights into the small business trends driving the U.S. economy. The jobs index is scaled to 100, which represents no year-over-year change in job growth among same store businesses. Index values above 100 represent new jobs being added, while values below 100 represent jobs being lost. About Paychex Paychex, Inc. (Nasdaq: PAYX) is the digitally driven HR leader that is reimagining how companies address the needs of today's workforce with the most comprehensive, flexible, and innovative HCM solutions for organizations of all sizes. Offering a full spectrum of HR advisory and employee solutions, Paychex pays 1 out of every 11 American private sector workers and is raising the bar in HCM for nearly 800,000 customers in the U.S. and Europe. Every member of the Paychex team is committed to fulfilling the company's purpose of helping businesses succeed. Visit to learn more. Visit to learn more.
