Latest news with #PeakChina
The Guardian
7 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
A China-led global system alongside that of the US is Xi Jinping's ultimate aim
I enjoyed reading George Magnus's article (Why Peak China may finally have arrived, 11 August). However, focusing on peak economic growth misses the bigger picture and underestimates China in ways that could weaken western policy responses. China's central goal is national power, and we are far from its peak national power. The Chinese economic miracle has taken place under the US-led global system. China built factories along its coast, filled container ships, and sent its goods to developed markets, effectively plugging into an existing network of shipping routes, ports and railways. However, just as easily as China joined this system, so too can it be forcefully unplugged. This is a core national security concern and, for more than a decade, China has been building an alternative to this US-led order. The belt and road initiative has created new trading networks across the global south; the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (Cips) allows China and its partners to move money beyond the gaze of the US government; the 'Made in China 2025' policy has established China as a global leader in science and technology; and the modernisation of its military will allow China to project power beyond its borders. On his first and only visit to the US since the pandemic, Xi Jinping declared to Joe Biden that 'Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed'. Policymakers should understand this as a statement of intent. Even with slower growth, the party commands enough of the nation's wealth and resources to pursue its ultimate aim: a parallel, China-led global J SinclairVisiting assistant professor of finance, California Institute of Technology Have an opinion on anything you've read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.
South China Morning Post
17-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Adhering to reforms can help Beijing pop ‘Peak China' bubble
Since 2023, as China's economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has shown protracted weakness, a 'Peak China' theory has emerged and reached its zenith during the second and third quarter of 2024. On September 26 last year, President Xi Jinping chaired an unexpected meeting of the Communist Party's Politburo to discuss economic work. Advertisement After the meeting, the government enacted a series of stimulus policies aimed at addressing the causes of the country's economic downturn. This was confirmed by Premier Li Qiang at the opening of this year's National People's Congress (NPC) in a speech outlining a package of measures intended to help hit a growth target of around 5 per cent One argument from sceptics is that China's fiscal policy has not been expansionary enough, leading to a contraction in the economy and a downward spiral in prices. However, the fiscal stimulus package unveiled at this year's 'two sessions' is unprecedented, including a 4 per cent deficit-to-GDP ratio and a government deficit of about 5.66 trillion yuan (US$782 billion), an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. Finance Minister Lan Foan has emphasised that the central government has sufficient reserve tools and policy space to address any uncertainties. This can be understood as being able to deploy additional fiscal policy if needed and ensuring all necessary measures can be taken. The potential for consumption among China's local governments and public has improved significantly. On the local government side, the 6 trillion yuan debt-swap programme approved in November appears to be gaining momentum, with Lan saying during an NPC press conference that implementation had reached the halfway mark. Advertisement In the residential sector, China has seen a significant decline in debt burden, with households' loan-to-deposit ratio falling back to early 2017 levels.
