23-05-2025
2025 Indy 500 predictions: Pato O'Ward best bet to win, Kyle Kirkwood to show
The Indianapolis 500 this year will feature two drivers in particular whose storylines are all about chasing history.
Josef Newgarden is attempting to win his third consecutive Indy 500. No one in the 108-year history of the race has won back-to-back-to-back.
Helio Castroneves is attempting to win for the fifth time. No one in the 108-year history of the race has won five.
Will either accomplish that feat?
Both have long roads. Newgarden starts 32nd in the 33-car field after a technical infraction last Sunday sent him to the rear. Castroneves starts 22nd and hasn't been happy with his car in practice.
With that in mind, here are some of my predictions.
Pato O'Ward Outright Winner
O'Ward has finished second in two of the last three Indy 500s, and he crashed while battling for second late in the race in 2023. The Arrow McLaren driver has his best starting spot of third. This pick might be a little bit more from the heart than the head. Yes, I know that can be dangerous. But sometimes you just have that feeling. What's the saying? You have to lose one before you win one. Some would say he's lost three.
PICK: Pato O'Ward (+500) to win Indy 500
Alex Palou Outright Winner
Yes, I'm backing Palou as another potential first-time winner. And no, he's never won on an oval. But considering he has won four of the first five races this year and starts on the outside of Row 2, he is in position to stay out front. He and the Ganassi team have executed flawlessly this year, and that is what this race takes. And he's been extremely fast in practice.
PICK: Alex Palou (+600) to win Indy 500
Scott McLaughlin Place
McLaughlin has a backup car, but it's a new ride that was purposely built for a speedway. He starts 10th and even though he has a new strategist after the overhaul of the Penske INDYCAR leadership this week, he'll be strong.
PICK: Scott McLaughlin (+400) to Place at Indy 500
Kyle Kirkwood Show
He starts 23rd but has loved his car throughout practice. The only day the Andretti driver didn't feel good in his car was qualifying day. The race is different from qualifying, and if you are looking for a little bit of a longer shot, Kirkwood is your man.
PICK: Kyle Kirkwood (+800) to Show at Indy 500
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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