2025 Indy 500 predictions: Pato O'Ward best bet to win, Kyle Kirkwood to show
The Indianapolis 500 this year will feature two drivers in particular whose storylines are all about chasing history.
Josef Newgarden is attempting to win his third consecutive Indy 500. No one in the 108-year history of the race has won back-to-back-to-back.
Helio Castroneves is attempting to win for the fifth time. No one in the 108-year history of the race has won five.
Will either accomplish that feat?
Both have long roads. Newgarden starts 32nd in the 33-car field after a technical infraction last Sunday sent him to the rear. Castroneves starts 22nd and hasn't been happy with his car in practice.
With that in mind, here are some of my predictions.
Pato O'Ward Outright Winner
O'Ward has finished second in two of the last three Indy 500s, and he crashed while battling for second late in the race in 2023. The Arrow McLaren driver has his best starting spot of third. This pick might be a little bit more from the heart than the head. Yes, I know that can be dangerous. But sometimes you just have that feeling. What's the saying? You have to lose one before you win one. Some would say he's lost three.
PICK: Pato O'Ward (+500) to win Indy 500
Alex Palou Outright Winner
Yes, I'm backing Palou as another potential first-time winner. And no, he's never won on an oval. But considering he has won four of the first five races this year and starts on the outside of Row 2, he is in position to stay out front. He and the Ganassi team have executed flawlessly this year, and that is what this race takes. And he's been extremely fast in practice.
PICK: Alex Palou (+600) to win Indy 500
Scott McLaughlin Place
McLaughlin has a backup car, but it's a new ride that was purposely built for a speedway. He starts 10th and even though he has a new strategist after the overhaul of the Penske INDYCAR leadership this week, he'll be strong.
PICK: Scott McLaughlin (+400) to Place at Indy 500
Kyle Kirkwood Show
He starts 23rd but has loved his car throughout practice. The only day the Andretti driver didn't feel good in his car was qualifying day. The race is different from qualifying, and if you are looking for a little bit of a longer shot, Kirkwood is your man.
PICK: Kyle Kirkwood (+800) to Show at Indy 500
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
BEST OF FOX SPORTS' INDY 500 COVERAGE: Ranking Indy 500 drivers from 33 to 1: Can anyone unseat Josef Newgarden?
Got milk? 33 potential Indy 500 winners pick preferred dairy option
Pato O'Ward pens letter to Indy 500: 'Had my heart broken here … but it also fuels me'
No oval experience, no problem: Rookie Robert Shwartzman captures Indy 500 pole
Rash of Crash: Inside a wild weekend of wrecks during Indy 500 prep
From 'magical' to 'legendary': Drivers describe the Indy 500 in one word
2025 Indy 500 liveries: See the designs of all 34 cars on the track at The Brickyard
Counting down the 25 most memorable moments in Indy 500 history
recommended
Get more from NTT INDYCAR SERIES Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Indianapolis Star
29 minutes ago
- Indianapolis Star
'We should beat him': Kyle Kirkwood's win gives Andretti Global confidence it can beat Alex Palou
DETROIT — Kyle Kirkwood started to crack a wide smile, but the Andretti Global driver quickly caught himself. A driver sailing into the wall on a late-race restart while trailing the car that would eventually finish third isn't a laughing matter, but then again, being on the wrong side of the better part of three months of Alex Palou's nearly unceasing domination of the 2025 IndyCar campaign has left the championship leader's rivals with in peculiar emotional spot. Do you step back and appreciate the history you're witnessing — a start to an IndyCar season not duplicated since 1979? Do you let the Chip Ganassi Racing Driver's five wins in six starts, including his first Indianapolis 500, agitate you to no end? Do you do your best to ignore it and shrug off references to a triple-digit championship gap while nearly every week getting asked questions about it again and again? And so when Kirkwood was asked whether his strategist Bryan Herta told the eventual Detroit Grand Prix race-winner over the radio that Palou had crashed out of Sunday's action on a Lap 72 restart — to no fault of the Ganassi driver's own — Kirkwood began to smile, as he said, 'No he didn't, but I knew it.' 'I shouldn't be smiling thinking that, but I knew that he crashed, and I knew we needed to capitalize on some points today, given the outcome for him,' Kirkwood continued. 'I feel bad for him, but this also does help us a lot with the points.' For weeks, if not months, Palou's rivals had been trying their darndest to speak into the existence of Palou's IndyCar reign — frankly not knowing what else to do as the Chip Ganassi Racing No. 10 team, led by lead engineer Julian Robertson, crew chief Ricky Davis and strategist Barry Wanser, made the right calls at every turn, executed flawless pit stops at every opportunity and engineered a speedy race car at all sorts of circuits — all with a three-time series champion in the cockpit to boot. And yet, as Palou learned the hard way during his first championship run at World Wide Technology Raceway, sometimes chaos can creep up behind you and tag you at a moment's notice with a simple lock of a trailing car's tires. 'Time will tell. You don't know if this run ends this weekend or next weekend or the weekend after. You have no idea,' fourth-place championship challenger Christian Lundgaard said Friday in Detroit. 'But you guys know as well as we do that (Palou's) run is going to end at some point. He can't win the rest of the races for the rest of this life. 'But the smallest little bit of contact, and he's out of the race. It could be his fault or not, and that can end his streak.' That's precisely how Palou's 112-point championship lead on Pato O'Ward, who finished third in the Indy 500 but lost 15 points on the runaway championship leader, shrunk back to double digits at 90 points at the checkered flag of the Detroit Grand Prix, despite a rather lackluster race weekend from the young Mexican driver that saw O'Ward only finish seventh. And it's how Kirkwood, who at the checkered flag of last weekend's 500 appeared to be trailing Palou by 126 points, only for a post-race tech inspection failure to widen that gap to 150, now sits 102 points back after his second win of the year, still as IndyCar's only non-Palou race winner through seven of 17 events this year. A race that had featured two instances of loose wheel-induced crashes and a beef-sparking spin was set to restart with just under 30 laps to go, following a caution to clear Callum Ilott's mangled No. 90 Prema Racing Chevy off the track. To their incredibly good fortune, Santino Ferrucci, Kyffin Simpson and Marcus Armstrong had pitted from 15th, 16th and 19th, respectively, just a couple laps before Ilott's day would come to an end, leaving the trio in the catbird seat as the other 22 cars dove into the pits, leaving them suddenly running 1-2-3 on equal strategy to the rest of the field, forced to fend off a hard-charging pack of five cars that had run up at the front virtually the entire day, but instead of first through fifth, now occupied fourth through eighth. Back to the Motor City: IndyCar to return to Detroit Grand Prix for at least 3 more years Whether or not they leapfrogged the new cars ahead or not, Kirkwood, Will Power and Colton Herta (who ran 1-2-3 before the caution and 4-5-6 at the time of the restart) were in line at the moment to make up some chunk of points on Palou, who sat seventh in line at the time of the return to green flag racing, but whether that bite out of Palou's lead would be meaningful or marginal would depend on how effective a sprint to the finish they'd go on to make. 'We had to pass some cars out there,' Kirkwood said. 'It was some low-percentage moves, I'm not going to lie, that I made. But you have to on street courses.' One corner after a return to green-flag racing, not a low-percentage move, but locked up tires from the car trailing behind of AJ Foyt Racing's David Malukas sent the No. 4 Chevy skidding into the back of Palou and ended with the No. 10 in the tires and Palou's day done down in 25th. 'It's very unfortunate after an amazing recovery this weekend when we didn't have much pace,' Palou told the Fox broadcast after being released from the infield care center. 'It doesn't feel great, but there's not much we could've done there.' As he cycled around and saw the AMR Safety Team trucks flanking the yellow and red machine of the championship leader, Kirkwood said he didn't so much change his focus, but he realized this even deeper: 'I need to win this race," he said. 'I'd known that anywhere we ended up toward the front that we were going to have a good points day, and that was going to help us a lot.' Notably, O'Ward, Lundgaard (fourth in the championship, eighth in Sunday's race) and Felix Rosenqvist (sixth in the championship, 21st in Sunday's race after a late crash) weren't his direct late-race competitors, which made the precise spot Kirkwood finished less of a major hang-up. And yet, IndyCar's proverbial street course king — winner of four of IndyCar's last 11 street races — motored up to the front for what was a relatively comfortable victory by the checkered flag, even after weathering a late-race red flag that bunched back up the field behind Kirkwood with 12 laps to go. 'I'm fine with that,' Kirkwood said, when asked about the importance of both his win and Palou's DNF that handed the championship leader just five points compared to Kirkwood's 53. 'It's super important, but we've got to keep doing it. 'As we know (Palou) can skip out on still a handful more races and be absolutely fine. It's unfortunate for him that he ended up in the wall, but it actually helps us a lot in the championship. It puts us …' And then reality set in for Kirkwood, as he was clarified of the massive undertaking that still lies ahead with 10 races to go. '102 points? That's still a mile away, but it puts you back in a position where you feel like you might be able to get that back,' he continued. 'But I'm sure we're going to go to road courses, and Palou is going to do his thing. So we'll see what happens.' First is a stop at World Wide Technology Raceway, perhaps a proving ground for an Andretti Global group that increasingly over last year has found race-winning short oval pace that had been missing from the team for years. Down the stretch a year ago, Herta found himself in the thick of the fight during a late-race restart, and at the next couple ovals on the calendar, the No. 26 driver would log a podium (The Milwaukee Mile) and his first oval win (Nashville Superspeedway), while Kirkwood took pole in the Nashville finale and found himself disappointed in fourth place by race's end. Palou, though, finished 3-for-6 on short oval top 5s in 2024 and now can call himself an IndyCar oval winner after the 500, and at the two races that follow next on the calendar, Road America and Mid-Ohio, the Spaniard has logged seven top-4 finishes in eight combined starts during his CGR tenure, including three wins and a sweep of the two-race stretch in 2023. As Kirkwood pointed out, super-abrasive road courses like The Thermal Club, Barber Motorsports Park and the IMS road course, a trio that Palou swept in 2025, are done for 2025, and the Andretti Global camp feels relatively confident in their increasingly competitive traditional IndyCar road course package. But already with five wins in seven starts in 2025, with four tracks left where Palou has won before in his still relatively young IndyCar career, it's pertinent to capitalize massively on any other days like Sunday. 'We've just got to get back to our winning ways,' Kirkwood said. 'Because we can't let him win any more races.' Added Herta earlier this weekend: 'I know we can beat (Palou). I know if we do all the right stuff, we have a really good chance to beat him, and we should beat him if we do everything the right way.
Indianapolis Star
5 hours ago
- Indianapolis Star
IndyCar Series 2025 drivers championship, Rookie of the Year, Leaders Circle standings after Detroit GP
The 2025 IndyCar Series season nearing its halfway point. Alex Palou has won five races, most notably the Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Kyle Kirkwood has won twice. Here's where the drivers and teams stand in the season-long points, Rookie of the Year and Leaders Circle races. (Through seven of 17 races) Robert Shwartzman had the best finish among rookies at the Detroit Grand Prix (16th). Jacob Abel finished 18th and Louis Foster 22nd after contact. IndyCar's Leaders Circle program pays eligible teams just over $1 million the following season in guarantees. To qualify for one of the 22 spots, the entry must be associated with one of IndyCar's 25 charters — teams are allowed to have a maximum of three. Only Prema Racing's two cars remain unchartered. The 25 chartered cars are then ranked by entrant points and, at the end of this season, the top 22 eligible entries will be paid $1.2 million or more by Penske Entertainment throughout the 2026 season. Here are the cars around the bubble after the Detroit Grand Prix: 18. Chip Ganassi Racing No. 8, 97 points 19. Andretti Global No. 28, 96 points 20. Juncos Hollinger Racing No. 76, 96 points 21. Arrow McLaren No. 6, 93 points 22. Juncos Hollinger Racing No. 77, 78 points ------------------------------------------------------------- 23. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing No. 45, 76 points 24. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing No. 30, 71 points
USA Today
7 hours ago
- USA Today
IndyCar complete results: Kyle Kirkwood wins Detroit Grand Prix after Indy 500 winner Alex Palou crashes out
IndyCar complete results: Kyle Kirkwood wins Detroit Grand Prix after Indy 500 winner Alex Palou crashes out Kyle Kirkwood comes away from the Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix with his second IndyCar Series victory of the year after he muscles past three cars late on a damaged wing. Kirkwood started 3rd, though he believes he had the best car and squandered a chance at pole position a day earlier. After the last round of pit stops, he picks off Marcus Armstrong, Kyffin Simpson and Santino Ferrucci on successive laps (76-78 of 100) to take the lead. Post-race, Kirkwood said his damaged wing didn't offer much of a problem. He also won at Long Beach. Ferrucci finishes a career-best 2nd, improving 19 places from his start. Pole-sitter Colton Herta completes the podium. They and 4th-place Will Power battle hard in the closing laps after a red flag as Kirkwood wins by 4+ seconds. Points leader Alex Palou crashes out and finishes 25th, down 20 spots from his start, but he retains a 90-point edge on Pato O'Ward in the season championship. Jinx!: Palou's crashcontinues streak of Indy 500 winner not winning next race Nathan Brown is your best IndyCar follow, and sign up for IndyStar's motorsports newsletter. Kyle Kirkwood Santino Ferrucci Colton Herta Will Power Kyffin Simpson Marcus Armstrong Pato O'Ward Christian Lundgaard Josef Newgarden Alexander Rossi Scott Dixon Scott McLaughlin Marcus Ericsson David Malukas Sting Ray Robb Robert Shwartzman Conor Daly Jacob Abel Nolan Siegel Graham Rahal Felix Rosenqvist Louis Foster Devlin DeFrancesco Christian Rasmussen Alex Palou Callum Ilott Rinus Veekay Lap 90: Santino Ferrucci gets past Will Power for 2nd, but he's 3+ seconds behind Kyle Kirkwood. Colton Herta also passes Power. Lap 89 restart: Kyle Kirkwood leads Will Power by 2 seconds. Lap 83 red flag: Felix Rosenqvist and Louis Foster crash hard. Foster's front suspension fails, he loses control and plows into Rosenqvist. Barrier repair requires a red flag and the cars head to the pits. Lap 78: Kyle Kirkwood gets by Santino Ferrucci for the lead, but Kirkwood has left front wing damage. Lap 77: Kyle Kirkwood muscles by Kyffin Simpson for 2nd, and he stalks leader Santino Ferrucci. Lap 76 restart: Kyle Kirkwood gets by Marcus Armstrong for 3rd place. Lap 72 restart: David Malukas gets into the rear of Alex Palou, ending the points leader's day. Malukas likely faces a penalty. Caution again. Lap 70: Santino Ferrucci, Kyffin Simpson and Marcus Armstrong — who had pitted shortly before the caution — are the top 3 and may have enough fuel to make it to the end. Coming out of the pits, Kyle Kirkwood is 4th, with Will Power, Colton Herta and Alex Palou trailing. Lap 67 caution: Callum Ilott smashes the wall shortly after making a pit stop. Lap 60: Kyle Kirkwood leads, with Will Power, Colton Herta, Alex Palou and David Malukas completing the top 5. They are on hard tires. Pato O'Ward is 6th, but he started 18th and is on soft tires. He wants to make up track position before the soft tires start losing grip. (Just before many of the leaders take pit stops) Kyle Kirkwood Colton Herta Will Power Alex Palou Pato O'Ward Felix Rosenqvist Marcus Armstrong Kyffin Simpson David Malukas Scott Dixon Christian Rasmussen hits a wall after a pit stop but keeps going. Lap 39: Scott Dixon goes the farthest on his first set of hard primary tires before pitting. He had qualified 10th but started 16th after an unapproved engine change coming into the weekend. Lap 33: Graham Rahal needs extensive work on the right rear in the pits. Christian Rasumussen Graham Rahal Louis Foster Marcus Ericsson Scott Dixon Alexander Rossi Robert Shwartzman Kyffin Simpson Sting Ray Robb Josef Newgarden Lap 23 restart: Christian Rasmussen leads Graham Rahal and Louis Foster. Lap 18 restart: Christian Rasmussen leads and Nolan Siegel spins out after getting hit from behind by Scott McLaughlin, who is assessed a drive-through penalty. Devlin DeFrancesco goes off track and loses his right rear tire. Caution. Lap 14, caution: Felix Rosenqvist spins. Laps 11-13: David Malukas, Christian Lundgaard, Kyle Kirkwood and Colton Herta pit to take on hard tires. They will be on a 3-pit stop strategy. Lap 10: The leaders started the race soft tires, and they're slowing rapidly. Colton Herta leads Kyle Kirkwood, with Christian Lundgaard third. Lap 1: Alex Palou moves up for third on the opening lap and David Malukas falls to fifth. Colton Herta keeps the lead. Row 1 1, Colton Herta 2, David Malukas Row 2 3, Kyle Kirkwood 4, Christian Lundgaard Row 3 5, Alex Palou 6, Rinus Veekay Row 4 7, Scott McLaughlin 8, Will Power Row 5 9, Marcus Armstrong 10, Christian Rasmussen Row 6 11, Graham Rahal (had 5th-best qualifying effort) 12, Marcus Ericsson Row 7 13, Louis Foster 14, Felix Rosenqvist Row 8 15, Alexander Rossi 16, Scott Dixon (had 10th-best qualifying result) Row 9 17, Callum Ilott 18, Pato O'Ward Row 10 19, Kyffin Simpson 20, Jacob Abel Row 11 21, Santino Ferrucci 22, Robert Shwartzman Row 12 23, Devlin DeFrancesco 24, Josef Newgarden Row 13 25, Conor Daly 26, Sting Ray Robb Row 14 27, Nolan Siegel Push-to-pass: 150 total seconds, in increments up to 15 seconds. Tire allotment: Five sets of primary tires (six for rookies) and five sets of alternate tires. Teams must use one set of primary tires and one set of new alternate tires for at least two laps in the race. Alex Palou, who has won five of the six races. Kyle Kirkwood has one win. Scott Dixon avoided the crashes and penalties on the tight downtown street course to come away with his 58th career win. From Nathan Brown, IndyStar Picking Alex Palou is so obvious that we're barring him from this portion of the preview for a while. Pato O'Ward sits second and Christian Lundgaard third in points, but they're more than two races' worth of max points behind Palou. Who makes a move in the points standings? Marcus Ericsson would have been 10th in points after crossing the finish line second in the Indianapolis 500, but he stands 20th after his car failed post-race tech inspection. He earned his lone podium finish in 2024 in Detroit, and with a similar performance this weekend, Ericsson makes up a lot of the ground he lost in the championship standings in Indy. Something you didn't see coming: At a track where he started on pole last year, but only finished 19th, Detroit seems like as good a track as any for Colton Herta to find some momentum. He sits just 9th in the championship standings with a single top-5 finish. However, the narrow streets of Detroit can be cruel, and somehow Herta and the No. 26 crew leave with a tough result unbecoming of the traditionally dominant street course program of Andretti Global. (All times ET; all IndyCar sessions are on IndyCar Live, IndyCar Radio and Sirius XM Channel 218) 9:30 a.m.: IndyCar warmup, FS1 10:30 a.m.: Indy NXT race, FS1 12:30 p.m.: IndyCar race, Fox TV: Coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, June 1, 2025, on Fox. Green flag is scheduled for 12:47 p.m. Will Buxton is the play-by-play voice, with analysts James Hinchcliffe and Townsend Bell. Kevin Lee and Jack Harvey are the pit reporters. Fox Sports app. Watch free with a Fubo trial IndyCar Nation is on SiriusXM Channel 218, IndyCar Live and the IndyCar Radio Network (check affiliates for each race) Sunday: Sunny, high around 70 degrees. (Team and drivers; *-Indianapolis 500 only)
