21 hours ago
Only courts can deal with Thaksin
The rally at the Victory Monument on Saturday to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resembled the so-called "Bangkok Shutdown" held in 2014 by the People's Democratic Reform Committee to demand the ouster of the government of then prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Ms Paetongtarn's aunt.
The size of the crowd was stunning, estimated by the police in the tens of thousands. It was bigger than the rallies held by the "three-finger" movement during the rule of Gen Prayuth Chan-o-cha following the coup that ousted the Yingluck administration.
The head bands, wrist bands and ribbons bearing the tri-colour of the Thai national flag which appeared at the event also recall the atmosphere and sentiments of the mass rallies over a decade ago.
Many of the protesters are politically literate and working people. Several of the protest leaders are from the same group who spearheaded the protests against Yingluck over a decade ago and her brother, former prime minister Thaksin, about two decades ago.
Sonthi Limthongkul, a group leader behind Saturday's protest and owner of the Manager media group, told the crowd he led the protest against Thaksin about two decades ago and didn't expect to be actively involved in a protest now against his daughter, Ms Paetongtarn.
Regardless of all the deja-vu, the collective frustration and resentment among countless Thais against Ms Paetongtarn and Thaksin would not have reached the point that drove them to take to the streets at the Victory Monument without the blessing in disguise delivered by Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, a close friend of the Shinawatra family and now Thailand's Number One enemy.
Hun Sen is thought to have deliberately leaked the private conversation between him and Ms Paetongtarn to senior Cambodian officials which eventually went viral on Thai social media. It was the last straw among many Thais, already chafing under Ms Paetongtarn's premiership.
Some of her remarks revealed a truth that many people have known all along about her, except for the "Yes" men and women in the Pheu Thai Party. That is she is completely unfit to lead Thailand as the head of the executive branch because of her immaturity, inexperience, political illiteracy and lack of knowledge.
Yet she appears not to realise she lacks the depth needed to be the country's leader. Her flimsy claim that the conversation with Hun Sen in which she offered to do anything he wanted regarding the Cambodia border dispute was a mere negotiating tactic is infantile. It was like a confrontation between a lamb and a fox.
It is an open fact the Pheu Thai is dictated and controlled by Thaksin which is a violation of the Political Parties Act. But pitifully, the Election Commission has turned into a lap dog that does not even dare to bark at Thaksin.
If the "Bangkok Shutdown" protest taught Thais any lesson, it is that street protests, no matter the size of the crowd or how long they take, will not succeed in forcing a stubborn leader to step down.
She will not step down because that is untypical of Thaksin's style: his signature style is to fight to the end.
One alternative is the remaining coalition parties might jump ship, which is not likely either as all appear to enjoy the benefits that come with their cabinet seats.
The only likely political change is through the courts of law which may take time and patience. Any suggestion of a coup to force a regime change is suicidal for the plotters and harmful to the country as a whole.
A coup will be condemned worldwide and Thailand may face sanctions from the international community, particularly in the wake of pending trade talks with the US over the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
We can look forward to tomorrow, when the Constitutional Court will decide whether to accept for consideration a petition filed by a group of senators asking the court to strip Ms Paetongtarn of her premiership over the leaked conversation between her and Hun Sen which they deem a serious breach of national security.
If the case is accepted for consideration, the court can choose to suspend her from her duty as prime minister. If that is the case, a new prime minister must be found.
Once again, it will be a candidate put forward by the Pheu Thai Party and another proxy of Thaksin's.
Hence, the vicious cycle of Thai politics, with Thaksin still looming large in the background and pulling strings from behind.
Unless, of course, Thaksin is put behind bars to serve the one-year jail term that he has dodged.
July will be a decisive month for Thaksin as the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders also hold hearings to determine whether the jail sentence handed down on Thaksin for three corruption convictions was enforced by the Corrections Department or not.
Or, Hun Sen could drop another damning bombshell against Thaksin if he has anything else up his sleeve.
With the Paetongtarn administration in a shaky position, even with a new cabinet lineup pending which is likely just old wine in a new bottle, the only logical alternative is for the House to be dissolved to return democracy to the people.
