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China's Credit Market Just Did Something It Hasn't in 20 Years -- Here's What It Means for Investors
China's Credit Market Just Did Something It Hasn't in 20 Years -- Here's What It Means for Investors

Yahoo

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

China's Credit Market Just Did Something It Hasn't in 20 Years -- Here's What It Means for Investors

New loan issuance in China just turned negative for the first time in nearly two decades. According to data released Wednesday by the People's Bank of China, yuan-denominated loans fell by 49.9 billion yuan ($7 billion) in Julystunningly missing the median forecast of a 300 billion yuan increase. This isn't just a soft patch. It's the first monthly contraction since July 2005. The drop wasn't due to tighter policy, but net repayments. Borrowershouseholds and businesses alikeare choosing to pay down debt instead of taking on more, suggesting confidence in future growth is weakening. Government stimulus so far hasn't been enough to reverse that mindset. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Signs with AMD. Behind the headline number is a deeper chill. Short-term consumer credit is collapsing, with households repaying a net 383 billion yuan of short-term loans in the first seven monthssomething we haven't seen since records began in 2009. Medium- and long-term loans, usually more stable, also took a hit in July. Even corporate borrowing turned negative for the first time since 2016. On the surface, aggregate financing rose 1.2 trillion yuan, helped by strong government bond issuance. But even that missed expectations. The broader read: demand for credit isn't just weakit's deteriorating, even as nominal GDP growth hits its lowest post-pandemic level since data collection began in 1993. Policymakers appear cautious, but cracks are widening. Beijing just announced interest subsidies on select consumer loans to nudge borrowers back into action. Still, analysts expect real monetary easing won't kick in until Q4possibly more rate cuts or lower reserve requirements. Until then, the economy looks stuck in a loop of deflation and deleveraging. That's not a great setup for risk assets tied to Chinese consumers. Investors in China-exposed names like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) might want to brace for weaker tailwinds from the mainland, at least for now. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

PBOC Moves to Stabilize Yuan With Fixing After Dollar Rally
PBOC Moves to Stabilize Yuan With Fixing After Dollar Rally

Bloomberg

time31-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

PBOC Moves to Stabilize Yuan With Fixing After Dollar Rally

China's central bank stepped in to stabilize the yuan with its daily reference rate, after the currency dropped to a two-month low in response to the dollar's surge. The People's Bank of China set the yuan's reference rate around 7.15 per dollar on Thursday, diverging from analyst estimates by the most since late April. The move signals a show of support for the currency which fell after the dollar rallied to its strongest level in two months.

China raises cross-border yuan use requirement for major banks, Bloomberg News reports
China raises cross-border yuan use requirement for major banks, Bloomberg News reports

Zawya

time26-05-2025

  • Business
  • Zawya

China raises cross-border yuan use requirement for major banks, Bloomberg News reports

China's central bank asked its major lenders to raise the share of yuan when facilitating cross-border trade, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. The People's Bank of China increased the floor ratio for yuan-denominated trade transactions to 40% from 25% as part of its recent adjustment to the Macro Prudential Assessment, the report said. Reuters could not immediately confirm the report. (Reporting by Kritika Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Nansha gives Greater Bay Area tech innovation boost
Nansha gives Greater Bay Area tech innovation boost

South China Morning Post

time23-05-2025

  • Business
  • South China Morning Post

Nansha gives Greater Bay Area tech innovation boost

China's drive for innovation is going full steam ahead. After Qianhai and Hengqin, Nansha has been named as the third innovation hub in the Greater Bay Area development zone. Hong Kong will play a central role as the trio of tech and finance hubs are expected to form closer ties with the only city in China that is not subject to capital controls. A slew of new measures has been announced to develop Nansha into a pilot zone for high finance and fintech. Along with Qianhai and Hengqin, the plan is for Nansha to become a hub for technological innovation and a node linking the bay area and global financial markets. It has been vetted and approved by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, making it a state policy priority. Be that as it may, it will take time to develop a successful financial and tech hub. It's better to take the time to iron out the kinks than to rush things.

China and Australia cut interest rates; Greggs sales improve as Mac and Cheese goes viral
China and Australia cut interest rates; Greggs sales improve as Mac and Cheese goes viral

The Guardian

time20-05-2025

  • Business
  • The Guardian

China and Australia cut interest rates; Greggs sales improve as Mac and Cheese goes viral

Update: Date: 2025-05-20T06:32:04.000Z Title: Introduction: China and Australia cut interest rates; Greggs sales improve as Mac and Cheese goes viral Content: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. China's and Australia's central banks have both cut interest rates to stimulate their economies and cushion the impact of US trade tariffs. China cut its benchmark lending rates for the first time since October, following Beijing's sweeping monetary easing measures. The People's Bank of China reduced the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points to 3.0%, and the five-year loan prime rate was cut by the same amount to 3.5%. The lending rate cut was announced just after five of China's biggest state-owned banks trimmed their deposit interest rates. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China reduced their deposit rates by 5-25bps. Global investment banks have upped their forecasts for China's economic growth this year, after Beijing and Washington agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs, despite ongoing uncertainty around the trade negotiations. China's president Xi Jinping called for continuous efforts to build a stronger manufacturing industry, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Xi stressed the need for the country to be self-reliant and to master key technologies, as he visited a bearings manufacturer in China's central Henan province. Marco Sun, chief financial market analyst at MUFG Bank, said the rate cuts were aimed at boosting credit lending and stimulating consumption. The central bank is likely to switch to a wait-and-see approach in coming months unless external geopolitical risks deteriorate enough to extinguish hopes that the economy can stabilise. The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges rose by 0.4% and 0.8%, while the Australian stock market advanced by 0.6% and Japan's Nikkei was little changed. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25bps to a two-year low of 3.85% at its May meeting, the first rate cut since January. The Australian dollar fell after the decision was announced. The central bank said: Inflation is in the target band and upside risks appear to have diminished as international developments are expected to weigh on the economy. The board assesses that this move will make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive. It nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook. Britain's biggest bakery chain Greggs said sales growth picked up in the past six months, as its newly launched Mac and Cheese went viral on TikTok. The company, famous for its sausage rolls and vegan alternatives, said like-for-like sales (at outlets open at least a year) rose by 2.9% in the first 20 weeks of 2025. In the first nine weeks sales had disappointed with a 1.9% rise, its worst performance since the pandemic, for which it blamed bad weather and a tough macroeconomic backdrop. After an initial trial last year, its made-to-order range, including chicken burgers, wraps and fish finger sandwiches is now sold in more than 300 shops across the country. Greggs opened 66 new shops, which means it now has 2,638 outlets, as it aims to launch up to 150 over the year. The Agenda 9am BST: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech 10am BST: Eurozone construction output for March

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