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See - Sada Elbalad
31-07-2025
- Business
- See - Sada Elbalad
Gold Prices Rise Amid Global Pressures and Shifting Egyptian Consumer Behavior
Waleed Farouk Gold prices rose in both local and international markets during Thursday's trading, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and market anticipation ahead of key inflation data expected later today. Saeed Embabi, Executive Director of the "iSagha" platform for online gold and jewelry trading, stated that local gold prices increased by approximately EGP 10 compared to Wednesday's close, with 21-karat gold reaching EGP 4,530 per gram. Meanwhile, the global ounce price rose by around $37 to hit $3,308. The price of 24-karat gold stood at EGP 5,177, 18-karat at EGP 3,883, and 14-karat at EGP 3,020, while the gold pound recorded EGP 36,240. Yesterday, gold had declined by about EGP 45 per gram, dropping from EGP 4,565 to EGP 4,520, despite a slight global increase in the ounce price from $3,271 to $3,325. Fed Decisions and Global Market Impact Embabi pointed out that today's price rebound followed a sharp decline at the end of Wednesday's session, influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which triggered a wave of selling in international markets. Despite the Fed's hold on interest rates, inflation concerns persist. In its statement, the Fed slightly adjusted its economic outlook, noting a slowdown in growth during the first half of the year. An internal division also emerged in the Federal Open Market Committee, with members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voting in favor of a rate cut. Despite this divergence, markets still anticipate two potential rate cuts in 2025, with the first possibly occurring in September, driven by slowing growth and weakening consumer spending. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, however, provided no clear guidance regarding the September meeting, emphasizing that it's still "too early" to determine the direction of monetary policy. Market attention now turns to new tariff policies and upcoming inflation data, particularly the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—set to be released later Thursday. Trump's Tariffs Boost Demand for Gold On another front, newly announced protectionist measures by U.S. President Donald Trump have contributed to a surge in global gold demand. The measures include reinstated tariffs on imports from South Korea, Brazil, and India, along with the removal of exemptions for low-value shipments. Key actions include a 15% tariff on South Korean goods and a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. Despite Trump's optimistic remarks about trade talks with China, markets remain cautious about potential disruptions ahead of the August 1 deadline for reciprocal trade agreements. Shifting Egyptian Consumer Behavior Toward Gold On the domestic front, Embabi highlighted World Gold Council data for Q2 2025, which shows clear shifts in how Egyptian consumers approach gold—both in traditional jewelry purchases and in direct investment through bullion and coins. He explained that these shifts reflect a changing economic landscape. Gold is no longer viewed solely as a stable, traditional safe haven, but rather as an asset whose role is being reassessed amid economic volatility. Jewelry Purchases Decline Purchases of gold jewelry in Egypt fell to approximately 5.7 tons in Q2—down 17% year-on-year and also lower than the 6.4 tons recorded in Q1. Embabi attributed the decline to weak consumer purchasing power, as the U.S. dollar surpassed EGP 50 locally, and global price volatility caused many to delay buying decisions. Purchases are now driven mostly by necessity (such as for weddings), or through selling existing holdings to capitalize on price differences. He added that this behavior is no longer unusual but rather represents a broader trend, as rising living costs have eroded the culture of long-term savings among Egyptian households. Cautious Return to Bullion and Coins In terms of direct investment, bullion and coin purchases declined 23% year-on-year to 5.9 tons in Q2. However, there was a noticeable increase compared to Q1, which saw 4.7 tons sold. Embabi noted this reflects a gradual return of individual investors to gold as a hedging tool, especially given the lack of attractive investment alternatives, with the real estate market stagnating and inflation making it difficult for financial instruments to offer real returns. He emphasized that gold is no longer purchased solely for long-term savings but is increasingly used as a dynamic tool for short- to medium-term risk management. Egyptian consumers are now more market-savvy, monitoring prices closely, postponing or making decisions to buy or sell based on perceived value. Embabi expects cautious demand for jewelry to persist, while bullion and coin sales may experience a mild recovery if prices continue to rise or stabilize. He concluded by stressing that gold will remain ingrained in the Egyptian mindset as a store of value, but the way it is utilized has evolved—clearly reflected in both recent data and consumer behavior patterns. read more CBE: Deposits in Local Currency Hit EGP 5.25 Trillion Morocco Plans to Spend $1 Billion to Mitigate Drought Effect Gov't Approves Final Version of State Ownership Policy Document Egypt's Economy Expected to Grow 5% by the end of 2022/23- Minister Qatar Agrees to Supply Germany with LNG for 15 Years Business Oil Prices Descend amid Anticipation of Additional US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Business Suez Canal Records $704 Million, Historically Highest Monthly Revenue Business Egypt's Stock Exchange Earns EGP 4.9 Billion on Tuesday Business Wheat delivery season commences on April 15 News Israeli-Linked Hadassah Clinic in Moscow Treats Wounded Iranian IRGC Fighters Arts & Culture "Jurassic World Rebirth" Gets Streaming Date News China Launches Largest Ever Aircraft Carrier News Ayat Khaddoura's Final Video Captures Bombardment of Beit Lahia Videos & Features Tragedy Overshadows MC Alger Championship Celebration: One Fan Dead, 11 Injured After Stadium Fall Business Egyptian Pound Undervalued by 30%, Says Goldman Sachs Lifestyle Get to Know 2025 Eid Al Adha Prayer Times in Egypt Arts & Culture South Korean Actress Kang Seo-ha Dies at 31 after Cancer Battle Arts & Culture Lebanese Media: Fayrouz Collapses after Death of Ziad Rahbani Sports Get to Know 2025 WWE Evolution Results
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Business Standard
27-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Gold may remain in consolidation phase amid global trade talks: Analysts
Gold prices are expected to witness further consolidation in the coming week as investors brace for a slew of events, ranging from central bank meetings, including the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome, to global trade negotiations, analysts said. Traders will also closely watch macroeconomic data, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, employment data from the US, manufacturing PMI numbers from across regions and developments related to the August 1 trade deal deadline. August 1 marks the end of the suspension period of Trump tariffs imposed on dozens of countries, including India. Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services, said, "Gold prices may see some consolidation in the week ahead as the focus will be on the outcome of trade negotiations between the US-Euro zone and the US-China along the policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, both of them expected to keep interest rates on hold. "However, their official commentary will be closely watched," Mer said, adding that the Fed remains under pressure to cut interest rates, and the Bank of Japan is being tracked for potential hikes. On the domestic front, gold futures for October delivery corrected from a recent high of Rs 1,01,543 to Rs 98,764 per 10 grams, down by 2.74 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Prathamesh Mallya, DVP - Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said, the rally in gold prices took a breather due to a combination of factors including ease of safe-haven demand, profit taking following recent highs, and optimism about global trade deals especially between the US-Japan, and the US-EU talks. "Gold prices have had a good ride in July; however, the correction was driven by lower safe-haven demand and expectations of a breakthrough in trade deals," he said. Mallya expects that precious metal prices to remain under pressure and added that the US GDP data will also play a critical role in shaping gold's trajectory in the short term. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said that volatility in the rupee owing to tariff-related uncertainties may offer limited support to the bullion prices in the domestic market. On the global front, Comex gold futures for August delivery slipped by USD 37.90 or 1.12 per cent to close at USD 3,335.60 per ounce in New York. N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM, Ventura, said gold saw a sharp drop from USD 3,438 to USD 3,335.60 per ounce amid an extended tariff truce between the US and China, which has added to this sentiment. Gold may stay weak as hopes of more trade deals or tariff delays before the August 1 deadline, Ramaswamy stated. "Safe haven demand seems to have vanished and has lifted the US stocks and Treasury yields, buoyed by strong AI-linked corporate earnings and risk-on appetite. The next move in gold will depend on whether the US Fed signals a more dovish stance or if tensions flare again on the tariff front," he said. Ramaswamy added that a possible resumption of Chinese central bank gold buying could offer support later in 2025, but for now, the market may remain in a phase of consolidation.
Axios
27-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Americans spent and earned less in May as trade war bites
Amid Stagflation Watch 2025, the latest data dump shows a little more stag-, but no real sign of -flation. Why it matters: Mainstream economic forecasts see the trade war leading to both higher prices and more sluggish growth. In May spending and income data out Friday morning, there is more reason to worry about the latter than the former. By the numbers: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index targeted by the Fed rose a mere 0.1% in May, with the core gauge — excluding food and energy prices — up 0.2 %. While core inflation ticked up to 2.7% year-over-year in May, it has risen at only a 1.7% annualized pace over the last three months. That's the lowest since December 2023, and fully consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Tariff-driven inflation remains the dog that won't bite. State of play: The worrying aspects of the report weren't on the inflation side of the ledger, but in what Americans are earning and spending. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.3% after rising by 0.1% in April. Real disposable income declined by 0.7% last month, the first time since last August that inflation outstripped pay growth. The new numbers brought Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker down to an estimate of 2.9% GDP growth rate in Q2, from 3.4%. What they're saying: "Consumers cut back on outlays last month, making fewer discretionary purchases as they grapple with softer labor market conditions, increased financial uncertainty and the onset of tariff-induced price increases," wrote EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour in a note. Reality check: The drops in consumption spending and incomes can be at least partly chalked up to one-off events, instead of outright evidence of an economic slowdown. Consumers are easing spending after a springtime splurge on all sorts of goods, aimed at getting ahead of tariff-related price increases. For instance, the biggest drag on spending was goods, autos in particular — a category that was a key beneficiary of spending earlier in the year. The drop in personal income came after a spike in recent months, including a 0.7% jump in April alone from a payout of social benefits for teachers, firefighters and police officers, related to recent legislation. Now it is wearing off. Yes, but: It's clear that the economy had less momentum coming into the second quarter than initially believed. Revisions out Thursday showed the economy weakened at a faster pace in the first quarter, in part due to a slower rate of consumer spending. Economic policymakers were reassured that underlying measures of growth held up as tariff front-loading weighed on the headline figure. But those measures were also revised lower: Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and investment, rose 1.9% in the first quarter — down 0.6 percentage point from the previous estimate and well below the 3% figure first reported. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari pondered Friday how tariffs are likely to impact consumer prices — and why there's so little sign of it in the data so far.
Economic Times
26-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold price today climbs to $3,336 as Trump blasts Powell—here's the forecast and what gold investors should expect next
Gold prices may be trading sideways today, but the market is anything but quiet. Between Trump's attacks on the Fed, a possible shakeup in Powell's leadership, and critical inflation data just around the corner, volatility is inevitable. In the short term, gold is likely to remain rangebound between $3,300 and $3,350, but analysts see the metal pushing higher toward $3,500 or beyond by year-end—if the Fed starts cutting and inflation cools off. Keep an eye on Friday's PCE report. It could be the spark that determines gold's next big move. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What is the gold price today? Spot gold is trading at $3,336.02 per ounce , up 0.1% on the day. is trading at , up 0.1% on the day. U.S. gold futures (COMEX) are hovering around $3,349.30 per ounce, showing mild intraday gains. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Why is gold price under pressure despite a weaker dollar? How is the Trump-Powell feud affecting gold and the Fed's next move? Is economic data pointing to trouble ahead for the US economy? What key data could shake gold next? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due Friday. price index due Friday. Revised U.S. GDP data, which could shape the Fed's path forward. What role is geopolitics playing in gold's recent decline? Gold price predictions: Where is gold headed next? Source Prediction Timeline Reuters Poll Avg $3,065 2025 Goldman Sachs Up to $3,300 End-2025 J.P. Morgan $3,675 → $4,000 Q4 2025 → Q2 2026 UBS / Bank of America $3,500+ Medium-term CoinCodex Avg $3,570, Peak $4,148 Dec 2025 Citigroup (bearish) Drop to $2,500–2,700 End-2026 AI/Crowd Forecasts Avg $3,070, AI upper range $3,026 Dec 2025 What are the key technical levels gold traders are watching? Immediate resistance lies at $3,356, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,371. Support levels include the 38.2% Fib at $3,292 and the 50% Fib at $3,228. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 50, signaling a neutral market. What could change the direction of gold prices next? FAQs: Gold prices fell on Thursday as risk appetite grows, US stocks rally to record highs, and President Trump's battle with Fed Chair Jerome Powell casts doubt over rate cut timing. Gold (XAU/USD) slipped from recent highs and was trading near $3,330 in the US session, despite ongoing weakness in the US Dollar. The retreat in gold comes as investors increasingly shift toward risk assets like equities, pushing major US indices to fresh record levels. At the same time, tensions are heating up between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, further complicating the path forward for monetary are now keenly watching Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — which could provide crucial clues on when a rate cut might of this morning:While the gains are modest, gold remains up more than 42% over the past month—one of the metal's best runs in recent is often seen as a safe haven when the US Dollar weakens, but that wasn't the case on Thursday. While the USD continued to decline, gold struggled to maintain gains as risk-on sentiment dominated market flows. The XAU/USD pair swung between its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, showing signs of consolidation and investor appear to be chasing momentum in equities rather than seeking safety in gold. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all notched fresh record highs this week, diverting attention away from the precious debate around interest rate cuts intensified this week after President Trump openly criticized Fed Chair Powell during the NATO summit. Trump didn't mince words, saying, 'He is going out, fortunately. I think he is terrible.' His comments reflect growing political pressure on the Fed to act swiftly on rate however, struck a cautious tone during his two-day semiannual testimony to Congress, maintaining that interest rates will remain at 4.25%–4.50% for now. He noted that while inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target, other risks — like tariffs and global uncertainties — must be carefully monitored before making any tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary authorities has left gold in a holding pattern. Traders are reluctant to take bold positions in gold until there's more clarity on the Fed's reports hint that the US economy might be hitting some bumps. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index showed signs of softening. Then on Wednesday, New Home Sales numbers came in below expectations, suggesting a cooling housing CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 68% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, with a 21.3% chance of a larger 50 basis-point cut. These expectations are keeping gold investors on edge. Without a strong catalyst, gold may struggle to retest its April high of $3, eyes are now on two big data drops:Any sign that inflation is cooling could fast-track rate cuts—sending gold higher. But if inflation surprises to the upside, the Fed may stay cautious, capping gold's macroeconomic trends are driving most of the action, geopolitical tensions have temporarily eased. The Israel-Iran ceasefire has held for three straight days, helping to reduce global fears and further cooling demand for safe-haven assets like experts warn that the calm may be short-lived. Any new flare-up could quickly push gold prices higher again. For now, though, the absence of immediate conflict is leaving gold exposed to economic and policy what analysts and forecasting models are saying:While most forecasts remain bullish, especially from institutions like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, some caution is creeping in. If inflation data comes in stronger and rate cuts are delayed, gold could face a near-term pullback toward $2, a chart perspective, XAU/USD is in a tight range, stuck between the 50-day SMA at $3,325 and the 20-day SMA at $3,356. These moving averages are acting as near-term support and resistance zones.A break above $3,371 could see gold test the $3,400–$3,450 zone. On the flip side, a drop below $3,325 could expose gold to deeper losses, especially if Friday's PCE data comes in eyes are now on Friday's PCE inflation data, which is likely to be the biggest driver for gold in the short term. A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a faster Fed rate cut, potentially boosting demand for then, gold may continue to trade sideways as markets juggle conflicting signals: a weakening dollar, stock market euphoria, political tension, and economic is dropping as investors prefer riskier assets like US stocks over safe-haven push for rate cuts vs Powell's caution adds uncertainty, keeping gold range-bound.
Business Recorder
26-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold rises as weaker dollar, Trump's criticism of Powell fuels uncertainty
Gold edged higher on Thursday, lifted by a weaker dollar and growing uncertainty after reports suggested U.S. President Donald Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as early as September-October. The reports raised concerns over the future independence of the U.S. central bank, boosting demand for safe-haven bullion. Spot gold edged up 0.1% at $3,334.20 per ounce, as of 0507 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $3,347.10. The dollar fell to its lowest level since March 2022, making greenback-priced gold less expensive for overseas buyers. Powell told a U.S. Senate panel on Wednesday that while Trump's tariffs may cause a one-time price hike, the risk of persistent inflation is significant enough for the Fed to be cautious about further rate cuts. 'Trump clearly wants a dovish Fed Chairman next time around, so the increased likelihood of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle is pinning down the USD,' KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. Bullion tends to do well during periods of uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment. Gold dips as geopolitical tensions ease On Wednesday, Trump called Powell 'terrible' and said he is considering three or four candidates for the top Fed post. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has even toyed with the idea of announcing Powell's potential successor by September or October. Markets are awaiting U.S. GDP print due later in the day, while also keeping a watch for data on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday, for cues on Fed's rate cut trajectory. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday as Trump, at a NATO summit, praised the swift end to the 12-day conflict and said he would seek a commitment from Iran to end its nuclear ambitions at talks next week. Spot silver edged up 0.1% to $36.34 per ounce, platinum firmed 1.6% to $1,376.64, while palladium surged 4.2% to $1,102.05.
