Latest news with #PersonalConsumptionExpenditure
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New Council of Economic Advisers report finds tariffs not causing inflation
FIRST ON FOX: A new report from the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that the prices of imported goods have fallen this year and have dipped faster than overall goods prices since February. The CEA, an agency within the Executive Office of the President, said its findings contradict claims that the Trump administration's tariffs on many countries around the world or fears sparked by the levies would lead to a rise in inflation. The report breaks down the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is an inflation gauge watched closely by the Federal Reserve and financial markets, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is an inflation gauge most commonly used by the public, into imported and domestic components. Trump Announces 25% Tariffs On Japan, South Korea Overall goods prices in the PCE index jumped by 0.4% from December through May, which corresponds to a 1% annualized rate, according to the CEA report. Meanwhile, the imported component of PCE goods prices dropped by 0.1% during that same time period. "CEA's directional findings using this method of analyzing the PCE are consistent across core goods (excluding food and energy), durables (which last for at least three years), and nondurables," the report reads. "The import contribution to inflation includes both the direct impact of imported final goods for consumption and indirect effects of imported intermediate inputs." Read On The Fox Business App The report said similar analysis for the CPI showed that imported goods dipped 0.8% while overall goods prices remained flat. Trump Threatens Additional 10% Tariffs On 'Anti-american' Brics Nations There are several differences between PCE and CPI inflation, such as scope of products included and weighting methodologies, according to the report, which argued that finding a similar pattern for CPI highlights the robustness of the results. The CEA report said it compared the imported subindex to overall prices from December through May to capture the effects of President Donald Trump's policies in his second administration. "The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly," the report reads. "Cumulatively, overall PCE prices have increased by about 1.1% since December compared to about 0.2% for PCE import prices. However, those values include pricing for services, which tend to have lower import intensity, so the divergence could be due to stickier services prices." The CEA also acknowledged that its analysis "does not identify the counterfactual in which tariffs are not instituted." "Goods and imported goods prices started to diverge towards the end of 2023, and have continued since," the report says. "Importantly, there is no clear trend break so far this year. This analysis suggests that tariffs have not reduced the disinflationary impulse from imported goods as of May."Original article source: New Council of Economic Advisers report finds tariffs not causing inflation Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Print
27-06-2025
- Business
- The Print
Gold plunges Rs 930 to Rs 97,670/10 g amid easing off Israel-Iran tensions
On Friday, gold of 99.5 per cent purity declined by Rs 850 to Rs 97,200 per 10 grams (inclusive of all taxes). It had settled at Rs 98,050 per 10 grams in the previous market session. According to the All India Sarafa Association, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had closed at Rs 98,600 per 10 grams on Thursday. New Delhi, Jun 27 (PTI) Gold prices plunged Rs 930 to Rs 97,670 per 10 grams in the national capital on Friday as traders rushed to selling amid easing off Middle East tensions and favourable reports about a trade deal between the US and China. 'Gold prices continue to correct as strong profit booking sets in, with safe-haven demand easing due to the lack of fresh geopolitical triggers. 'Crude oil prices also declined after Iran signalled restraint by avoiding strikes on key oil infrastructure and transport routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz which is one of the most critical choke points for global oil shipments,' Abans Financial Services' Chief Executive Officer Chintan Mehta said. This de-escalation has reduced immediate risk premiums across markets, pressuring gold further, Mehta added. In addition, silver prices slipped by Rs 100 to Rs 1,03,000 per kilogram (inclusive of all taxes) on Friday. The white metal had ended at Rs 1,03,100 per kg on Thursday. In the overseas market, spot gold dropped by USD 43.45 or 1.31 per cent to USD 3,284.40 per ounce. 'Investors now await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data later in the day for further cues about the Fed's interest rate-cut path,' Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments indicating that interest rate cuts are not imminent further weighed on bullion prices. The weaker dollar index confirmed easing global risk, prompting investors to rotate funds into riskier assets like equities and cryptocurrencies, Trivedi said. PTI HG HVA This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.
Business Recorder
27-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Safe-haven gold near a one-month low as global tensions ebb
Gold fell more than 1% to its lowest level in nearly a month on Friday due to easing geopolitical and trade tensions and as investors awaited US inflation data for clues on the future trajectory of interest rates. Spot gold lost 1.4% to $3,282.68 per ounce by 1055 GMT, its lowest since late May. Prices have fallen by over 2% this week and more than $200 from a record high scaled in April. US gold futures fell 1.6% to $3,294.50. The Iran-Israel ceasefire, brokered earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, is holding for now. A White House official said on Thursday that the US has reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earths shipments to the US July 9 is the deadline for Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs as nations rush to get an agreement. 'The loss of haven demand has meant that despite the latest leg down in the dollar, gold has not benefited from this at all,' said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and 'A bit of a pullback would not be too bad an outcome as that will allow long-term technical overbought conditions on higher time frames to work off, allowing the metal to shine again when macro conditions are more favourable once more.' The immediate focus is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure data, an inflation gauge, scheduled for release at 1230 GMT. Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said tariffs are very likely to push inflation up over the coming months. Gold slips on easing ME tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty Despite its reputation as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, zero-yield bullion loses appeal in a high interest rate environment. Spot silver fell 1.8% to $35.96. Platinum dropped 5.9% to $1,334.63, after hitting its highest since 2014. Palladium fell 1.2% to $1,117.96. The main reason for the price increase in platinum was likely to be the high discount to gold, which is apparently considered too expensive, said Commerzbank in a note.
Hindustan Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Gold price today in US: Spot dips to $2,283 amid easing global tensions
Gold prices slid over 1% on Friday, hitting the lowest level in almost a month. The drop comes as worries around global conflict and trade eased a bit, and traders waited for fresh US inflation data to figure out where interest rates might head next, as cited by Reuters report. One of the main reasons behind gold drop is the ceasefire between Iran and Israel.(Pexels) By 0839 GMT, spot gold was down 1.3% at $3,283.56 an ounce, the lowest it's been since late May. This week alone, prices are down more than 2%, and gold has lost over $200 since reaching its all-time high back in April. US gold futures also slipped, falling 1.6% to $3,295.70. One of the main reasons behind this drop is the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which was arranged earlier in the week by President Donald Trump. So far, it's holding. In other global news, a White House official said Thursday that the US and China have made a deal to speed up the shipment of rare earth materials to the United States. Also Read: Gold Price today in US: What's behind the rise in prices and will they keep going up? Nitesh Shah, a strategist at WisdomTree said, "We had an absolutely fantastic run a few months ago. It's quite conceivable that after such strong upward momentum, we're now seeing some mean reversion." He also said the market is starting to turn its attention back to trade issues, especially with several temporary deals about to expire. A key date to watch is July 9, when Trump's plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs could kick in if countries don't reach a new agreement. Next up for markets is the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, set to come out at 12:30 GMT. It's a key number the Fed watches closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that some price increases from tariffs might take time to show up. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin added that the tariffs will likely push inflation higher in the coming months. Even though gold is often used to protect against inflation and economic uncertainty, it tends to lose its shine when interest rates are high, since it doesn't earn any income. Other metals dropped too: Silver fell 1.4% to $36.09 Platinum dropped 3.8% to $1,363.66, after reaching its highest level since 2014 Palladium edged down 0.2% to $1,129.98 Analysts at Commerzbank said the recent jump in platinum prices could be because it's still much cheaper than gold, which some investors now see as overpriced.
Mint
25-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
US yields ease as markets consider rate cut timing, tepid auction demand
(Writes throughout with auction results, analyst quote, context) NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - Yields on benchmark U.S. Treasuries were slightly lower on Wednesday afternoon, as oil prices rose and markets assessed the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Yields on the longer-term Treasuries rose during the day, but receded in afternoon trading. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note's yield was down 0.6 basis point to 4.287%, and the 30-year bond yield was flat at 4.831% The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.1 basis point at 3.773%. Oil prices rose on Wednesday after sharp declines over the last days. Investors considered strong U.S. energy demand and assessed the stability of the truce in the Middle East. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a U.S. Senate panel on Wednesday that tariff plans may well just cause a one-time jump in prices, but the risk it could cause more persistent inflation is large enough for the central bank to be careful in considering further rate cuts. Debate over the timing for the first rate cuts of the year has been growing since Fed officials appointed by President Donald Trump, such as Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, discussed the chance of rate cuts beginning as soon as July. "Our base case scenario is still the first rate cut of the year in September, but we are closely following the discussions among Fed officials ahead of the July meeting and Jackson Hole Conference," said Ed Acton, Citigroup's U.S. rates strategist. Several Fed officials are expected to speak publicly on Thursday, such as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin, Cleveland's Fed president Beth Hammack, board governor Michael Barr and Minneapolis' Fed president Neel Kashkari. CME's FedWatch tool shows markets project a 22% chance of the first rate cut at the July meeting and 90% chance of cuts in September. Markets will be looking for signs of deceleration that could skew the odds to more urgent timing. On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release the final estimate for first-quarter Gross Domestic Product. The Labor Department will also release initial unemployment claims. The most important data will come on Friday, with the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index for May, said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York. "Markets do not have now a lot of momentum in either direction right now, data may change that", he added. Trump said on Wednesday morning during a NATO meeting in the Netherlands he is already considering candidates to replace Powell next year when his term ends. The U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion in 5-year notes auction, with tepid demand and a 2.36 bid-to-cover ratio. Yields on the 5-year notes were flat in afternoon trading, at 3.842%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 51.4 basis points. The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.307% after closing at 2.3% on June 24. The U.S. dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap , seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed's quantitative easing, was last at 2.471%. (Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Franklin Paul)
