Latest news with #Pesole
Al Etihad
11-08-2025
- Business
- Al Etihad
Sterling touches two-week high before jobs data
11 Aug 2025 14:49 LONDON (REUTERS)The pound was steady on Monday after earlier hitting a more than two-week high against the dollar, before job market and growth data later in the week that could take on more importance after the Bank of England's close decision to cut rates on pound was last little changed against the dollar at $1.3458 after earlier touching $1.3476, its highest since July BoE last week lowered the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4%, but the nine-person, rate-setting, Monetary Policy Committee was split, with four members voting to keep interest rates BoE has eased rates at a slower pace than the European Central Bank, tending to favour a rate cut about once per quarter since it kicked off its easing cycle in the middle of last year, due to worries about sticky FX strategist Francesco Pesole believes that incoming data will take on a greater importance for the outlook for monetary policy following the BoE's decision last week."I think there will be quite a lot of data-related volatility in sterling," Pesole said."The Bank of England signalled that there's a stronger case for a slowdown in the pace of easing, and markets are quite torn on whether they should keep that rate cut in December."Economists polled by Reuters expect Tuesday's data to show the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% in the three months to growth data, released on Thursday, is expected to show GDP slowed to 0.1% in the second quarter from 0.7% in the first quarter."Soft data will cause markets to price a higher chance of a Bank of England interest rate cut by year end, weighing on GBP/USD in our view," said Samara Hammoud, currency strategist at market futures imply about an 80% chance that the BoE cuts interest rates again by December's meeting. The pound was little changed at 86.53 pence per euro and 198.7 yen.
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Bulls pile up on Taiwan dollar most since late 2020, trim long position on rupee
May 15 (Reuters) - Bullish bets on the Taiwan dollar surged to their highest since late 2020 after the currency posted its steepest one-day gain in nearly four decades last week, as traders wagered Taipei might permit appreciation to smooth trade relations with Washington. Analysts doubled down on their long positions on the Taiwan dollar and were more bullish on the South Korean won , according to a fortnightly Reuters poll of 11 respondents. Taiwan's currency surged more than 6% in just two sessions at the start of May, sparking volatile sessions on the Taipei stock exchange, weakening the U.S. dollar across Asia, and sending shockwaves through global foreign exchange markets. However, markets speculated that the sharp currency rally was driven by exporters offloading U.S. dollars following a media report that the government might allow the Taiwan dollar to appreciate to secure a more favourable trade deal with the United States. Francesco Pesole, foreign exchange strategist at ING said local players were seeking greater U.S. dollar hedging as well as starting to diversify away from U.S. investments. This fits into a more worrying bearish territory for the U.S. dollar, Pesole added. The dollar index has weakened nearly 7% in 2025 despite gaining over 1% so far in May, fueling investor optimism toward Asian currencies amid speculation about U.S. pressure for stronger exchange rates among trade surplus partners. On the flipside, analysts had trimmed their bullish bets on the Indian rupee after tensions escalated between India and Pakistan following an attack in Indian Kashmir that killed 26 Hindu tourists. India and Pakistan subsequently announced a ceasefire over the weekend. Meanwhile, the world's two largest economies decided to temporarily lower tariffs for 90 days after talks between Washington and Beijing. "The recent surge in volatility and the dollar's recovery following the US's pause on trade tariffs have cast doubt on the rupee's appreciation. While short-term weakness in the rupee is likely, its underlying fundamentals remain strong," said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities. Elsewhere, investors were neutral on the Chinese yuan while lowering their long positions on the Malaysian ringgit , the Philippine peso and the Thai baht . The central banks in the Philippines and Thailand lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points in their latest policy meetings, while the Bank Negara Malaysia held steady. The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars. The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
Zawya
11-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Sterling falls against euro, rises versus dollar as traders focus on trade war
The pound fell versus the euro and rose versus the dollar on Friday, reflecting a sell-off in U.S. assets as traders flee to safe-haven currencies amid an escalating global trade war, while better-than-expected UK GDP figures barely moved the dial. At 1004 GMT, the pound was 1% higher versus the dollar at $1.30950, and 0.5% lower versus the euro at 0.8675. Heavy dollar selling has seen the greenback plunge versus a range of currencies, as investors' confidence in the world's largest economy flags. Safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and euro are meanwhile at multi-year highs as traders dump U.S. assets. "The story with sterling it is more sensitive to risk sentiment than the euro ... and it's less liquid than the euro, in general it makes sense in these conditions to have euro/sterling move higher. When it comes to cable, it is just a dollar story," Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said. Earlier on Friday, official figures showed Britain's economy returned to growth in February with its fastest expansion in 11 months, beating economists' expectations. The pound barely moved on the news as attention remained squarely on tariff-related developments, with China slapping additional tariffs on the U.S. on Friday morning in a further escalation of the trade war. One additional factor weighing on sterling is the gilt market, Pesole said. "At a moment where bond market instability is driving outflows from the U.S. dollar in the U.S., markets are looking at bond market instability in the UK," he said. Thirty-year gilt yields plunged 16.8 bps on Thursday - their biggest daily drop in over two years - but on Friday resumed the upward climb seen since Trump's tariffs roiled markets.
Reuters
11-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Sterling falls against euro, rises versus dollar as traders focus on trade war
LONDON, April 11(Reuters) - The pound fell versus the euro and rose versus the dollar on Friday, reflecting a sell-off in U.S. assets as traders flee to safe-haven currencies amid an escalating global trade war, while better-than-expected UK GDP figures barely moved the dial. At 1004 GMT, the pound was 1% higher versus the dollar at $1.30950, and 0.5% lower versus the euro at 0.8675. Heavy dollar selling has seen the greenback plunge versus a range of currencies, as investors' confidence in the world's largest economy flags. Safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and euro are meanwhile at multi-year highs as traders dump U.S. assets. "The story with sterling it is more sensitive to risk sentiment than the euro ... and it's less liquid than the euro, in general it makes sense in these conditions to have euro/sterling move higher. When it comes to cable, it is just a dollar story," Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said. Earlier on Friday, official figures showed Britain's economy returned to growth in February with its fastest expansion in 11 months, beating economists' expectations. The pound barely moved on the news as attention remained squarely on tariff-related developments, with China slapping additional tariffs on the U.S. on Friday morning in a further escalation of the trade war. One additional factor weighing on sterling is the gilt market, Pesole said. "At a moment where bond market instability is driving outflows from the U.S. dollar in the U.S., markets are looking at bond market instability in the UK," he said. Thirty-year gilt yields plunged 16.8 bps on Thursday - their biggest daily drop in over two years - but on Friday resumed the upward climb seen since Trump's tariffs roiled markets.
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar steady, yen strengthens as traders mull Ukraine peace talks
By Lucy Raitano LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held steady against a range of currencies on Wednesday while the yen strengthened, as traders focused on talks over a Ukraine ceasefire and digested the latest round of tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. The pound, meanwhile, got a small lift from a stronger-than-expected UK inflation print. The dollar index last stood at 107.06, up 0.047% after dropping 1.2% last week. The yen was stronger against the dollar, up 0.24% at 151.675. Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine after an initial meeting that excluded Kyiv, a departure from Washington's previous approach that rallied U.S. allies to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin. Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING, pointed to the market's base case that a peace deal in Ukraine might be reached at some point. Meanwhile, the EU's exclusion from the table at peace talks is seen as spurring safe-haven demand into the yen and out of the euro, he said. The euro was last down 0.35% against the yen at 158.415, while holding relatively flat against the dollar at $1.0443. Pesole highlighted the latest raft of tariff threats from Trump, but said the market is more focused on news around a potential Ukraine peace deal in the short-term. "There is a residual sort of reluctance in markets to see whether Trump will indeed go ahead with tariffs on trade partners," he said. Trump said on Tuesday he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports, the latest in a series of measures threatening to upend international trade. In a note, Commerzbank FX analysts/strategists said that the currency market is largely ignoring the news. "Amid all this chaotic, childish back and forth of the presidential tariff announcements, let's not lose sight of what will ultimately come out of it: probably fewer tariffs than expected when he took office, but still substantial ones," they wrote. In the UK, official data showed inflation speeding up by more than expected to hit a 10-month high of 3.0% in January and is likely to rise further soon, testing the Bank of England's confidence that price pressures will ease over the longer term. Sterling was up 0.1% at $1.26150, marching to a fresh two-month high immediately after the data before tempering gains. Against the euro, the pound was up 0.1% at 82.775 pence. Pesole said the relatively safe position of the UK on trade and the latest inflation figures made the pound more attractive than the euro. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% on Wednesday as widely expected and signalled future moves would likely be smaller, leaving the currency up 0.4% on the day at $0.57270. Sign in to access your portfolio
