Latest news with #PeterBosek
Reuters
01-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Erste Group Bank raises 2025 forecast on Q2 results beat
Aug 1 (Reuters) - Erste Group Bank ( opens new tab raised its full-year forecast for net interest income and a key profit metric after reporting second-quarter results that beat expectations on Friday, largely due to strong growth in its customer business. The Vienna-based bank expects a more than 15% return on tangible equity for the year, up from a previous forecast of around 15%, reflecting better loan volume and profit-and-loss dynamics, it said in a statement. It expects an increase in net interest income, having flagged that it would be flat. However, Erste sees operating profit broadly unchanged or slightly down compared to 2024, from a previous expectation that it would be stable. Its shares rose 3% at the open before retreating to trade flat on the day. Erste reported net profit of 921 million euros ($1.1 billion), an 8.8% increase compared to 846 million euros in the same period last year. Analysts had forecast net profit of 815.9 million euros, according to a company-provided consensus. Operating profit also increased by 5% to 1.51 billion euros, beating analysts' expectation of 1.47 billion euros. The results were driven largely by strong growth in its customer business, which compensated for declining interest rates. "Our strong results confirm that we are on the right strategic path," Chief Executive Peter Bosek said in a statement. "With the planned acquisition in Poland, we are investing in one of Europe's most dynamic growth markets," Bosek added, citing the acquisition of a 49% stake in Santander's ( opens new tab Polish bank. ($1 = 0.8764 euros)
Mint
25-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Poland: the ignored stockmarket superstar
Europe's bourses have not shone so brightly in years. Speak to those who analyse them for a living and you will still detect a note of disbelief—they can hardly remember the last time foreign investors were paying them as much attention. Why that should be is no mystery. Measured in dollars, Europe's Stoxx 600 index has risen by 16% in 2025, compared with 3% for the MSCI World. More mysterious, Europe's highest-soaring stockmarket has slipped beneath many investors' radars. Everyone knows that share prices in Germany have rocketed, and that those of its armsmakers have gone ballistic. Yet its DAX index is up by a paltry 27% (in dollars again) this year. Poland's WIG has risen by over 40% and, since a trough in 2022, has nearly tripled. Quietly, a long-moribund market has become Europe's superstar. 'Poland is the new Germany," says Peter Bosek, chief executive of Erste Group Bank, an Austrian lender that is acquiring Santander Bank Polska, Poland's third-largest. The analogy works in several ways. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, but especially over the past two decades, Poland has achieved a stunning economic transformation—reminiscent of Germany's in the second half of the 20th century. By the World Bank's standards, it dodged the 'middle-income trap" that ensnared economies elsewhere, moving to high-income status in just 15 years. The IMF reckons that, this year, Poland's GDP per person will exceed Japan's, adjusted for purchasing power. In 2005 Poland's income on this measure was 50% of the EU average; in 2025 the IMF thinks it will rise to 85%. Until recently, though, Poland's success did little to boost the appeal of its stockmarket to international investors. Between 2010 and 2020, share prices were more or less flat in dollar terms. During the covid-19 pandemic and the crash of 2022, they convulsed along with markets elsewhere. Then, in 2023, Poles started looking more German in a second way: by booting their populist, interventionist and anti-EU Law and Justice (PiS) party out of power. In its place they elected an investor-friendly alliance led by Donald Tusk, a former president of the European Council. PiS's approach to markets had included installing a crony to run Poland's central bank, which then slashed interest rates during the 2023 election campaign, despite inflation being at 10%. Meanwhile Orlen, a state-run and PiS-controlled energy firm, conveniently cut fuel prices. Mr Tusk's comparatively hands-off administration has made Poland far more investible. And it has so far unlocked €21bn ($23bn) in post-covid aid from the EU, which had previously been withheld owing to PiS's meddling with the courts. That left Polish shares poised to participate—and then some—in Europe's rally this year, as investors have reconsidered their outsize allocations to America and wondered where else they can park their cash. How about the stockmarket of a mid-sized, rich country that is boosting its growth prospects with a big fiscal stimulus and a determination to re-arm? The reasoning that has led many to Germany applies to Poland, too. In 2025 it expects to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence, more than any other NATO member and up from 2.2% in 2022. So far, much of that has gone on imports to replace the hardware Poland sent to Ukraine after Russia's invasion, and so has done little to raise GDP. But that will soon change, since Poland is also acquiring manufacturing and maintenance capacity. The government says it will spend 50% of its funds for technological modernisation on equipment made in Poland. Faster growth should follow. More immediately, points out Mai Doan of Bank of America, Poland should benefit from German growth, which is set to speed up as Germany spends more on defence and infrastructure. She estimates that higher German growth passes through almost one-for-one across the border, since it translates into higher demand for Polish exports, including capital goods and military gear. There are limits to how fast money can flow into Polish stocks with the WIG index's market value at just $520bn. Nevertheless, 40% of that is made up of the shares of financial firms which are well-placed to harvest returns from a strong economy. The market remains enticingly cheap. Share prices are only ten times firms' expected earnings for this year, compared with 15 for Europe more broadly and 22 for America. For now, the rise of the Warsaw Stock Exchange has attracted little attention. Do not bet on that continuing. Subscribers to The Economist can sign up to our Opinion newsletter, which brings together the best of our leaders, columns, guest essays and reader correspondence.
Irish Independent
29-04-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
AIB's former Polish subsidiary valued at €14bn in new deal
Erste and Spain's Santander Bank announced the talks in separate statements on Monday, confirming an earlier Bloomberg News report. The deal would see Erste acquiring a 49pc stake in Santander Bank Polska for around €7.3bn, based on the most recent stock price. That would value the bank – which under a previous name, Bank Zachodni, was majority owned by Ireland's AIB – at more than €14bn. The Irish bank was forced to sell its 70pc stake in its Polish subsidiary in 2011 to allay state aid concerns raised by its own €21bn bailout. AIB sold that stake for €3.1bn to Santander, which then bought up the remaining shares in the Polish bank and bolted on Kredy Bank, another Polish lender acquired from KBC Group, to create Santander Bank Polska. It is not clear if the talks will lead to an agreement, and completion of any transaction would be subject to closing conditions, the banks said. Santander said it had 'received interest from several parties'. Since AIB sold its stake in 2011, the Polish economy has been on a strong growth trajectory, boosting the value of the bank. Shares of Erste fell as much as 4.7pc in Vienna on news of the deal. Santander Bank Polska shares also declined. Under the proposed terms, Erste would effectively gain control of the Polish lender as its largest single shareholder despite not having a majority holding, people familiar with the matter said. ADVERTISEMENT By buying less than 50pc, Erste will avoid triggering a mandatory tender for the remaining shares in the bank. A deal between Vienna-based Erste and Spain's biggest bank would be one of the largest banking transactions in Europe in recent years. The deal would deliver on Erste Group chief executive officer Peter Bosek's ambitions to expand into Poland, made public after his return to Vienna last year from Luminor Group. Erste serves more than 16 million customers across seven European countries, making it one of the largest banks in central and eastern Europe. It currently operates a brokerage in Poland. Santander Bank Polska is Poland's third-largest lender with about 7.5 million customers. It posted record net income last year, and its shares are at an all-time high. A sale of much of Santander's stake in the Polish bank would be one of the biggest moves under executive chair Ana Botin to shift the strategic focus away from Europe. It could allow her to expand in other markets and potentially use proceeds for acquisitions or to help fund buybacks. The Spanish lender announced in February it intends to buy back €10bn of its shares over the next two years using excess capital and earnings. Any transaction would require regulatory approval from the European Central Bank and the national banking authorities. That would likely be granted given that it is a deal within the European Union and wouldn't create a dominant market position or any other distortions, some of the people said.
