Latest news with #PeterGibson
Scoop
12-08-2025
- Science
- Scoop
Extreme Rainfall In New Zealand From Future Cyclones Could Rise By Up To 35%
Press Release – Earth Sciences New Zealand Study lead and climate scientist Dr Peter Gibson says they simulated more than 1,800 years of data from different climate models and levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Rain from tropical cyclones to increase under warmer climate New high-resolution modelling predicts that rainfall from tropical cyclones will significantly increase under global warming. Earth Sciences New Zealand and the University of Waikato found that, under a high emissions scenario, extreme rainfall from cyclones could rise by up to 35% across the southwest Pacific, including for ex-tropical cyclones impacting Aotearoa New Zealand. Researchers used the latest climate change projections released last year by Earth Sciences NZ (then NIWA) with the Ministry for the Environment. Study lead and climate scientist Dr Peter Gibson says they simulated more than 1,800 years of data from different climate models and levels of greenhouse gas emissions. 'We wanted to assess how the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific may change by the end of the century. Under the full range of climate scenarios examined there was an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall. This was proportional to the rate of emissions, with the most pronounced rise in extreme rainfall occurring under the highest emissions.' 'If that scenario plays out, we can expect around 30 – 35% more extreme rainfall during tropical cyclones than we experience today. Even under the best-case scenario, we will still see an increase proportional to the warming experienced. Extreme windspeeds are also likely to increase, but not to the same extent.' 'The more greenhouse gases that are emitted, the higher temperatures get, with a high emissions scenario representing around a 3°C increase by the end of the century. A warmer atmosphere holds more water, so when storms develop, they have access to more water vapour that can be released as heavier rainfall. And while the model simulations didn't show an overall increase in the total number of cyclones by the end of the century, there is compelling evidence that the strongest (category 4 and above) will become more frequent.' 'One or two ex-tropical cyclones typically effect New Zealand each year. However, it's the really big, much rarer events that cause the most damage. And the difference between a river flooding or not can often be small, so any increase in rainfall is significant and potentially very impactful.' The February 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle, which at its peak reached category 3, and the Auckland Anniversary weekend event, resulted in total estimated costs of $14.5 billion, with the total insured losses for both events totalling $3.8 billion, with $1.8 billion from Cyclone Gabrielle claims, and $2 billion from the Auckland anniversary weekend event. Most the claims were because of widespread flooding. Until now, most projections of tropical cyclones have relied on global climate models, which have a relatively low spatial resolution. This work refines those models to a regional scale that can zoom in closer and get a much more accurate picture. 'The eye of a cyclone is fairly compact, at only tens of kilometres across. Global climate models are coarse, with each pixel going down to around 100km, meaning they miss much of the crucial detail and small-scale physics of a storm. Our refined regional model goes down to around a 12km resolution, making it a state-of-the-art dataset for assessing ex-tropical cyclones that impact New Zealand.' These findings, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, are consistent with other studies around the world, highlighting the potential for more intense tropical cyclones and heavier rainfall in the future, said Dr Gibson. This indicates increasing risks for vulnerable communities across the southwest Pacific and New Zealand. 'It's clear that if we reduce emissions, we reduce warming, and we mitigate the worst impacts of severe weather events. As computing capabilities improve, newer, high-resolution models will become available to create even more accurate and reliable long term climate projections of cyclones and their impacts. More research is being undertaken by Earth Sciences NZ into specific weather and climate hazards in the projections, to provide clarity on the future climate New Zealanders are likely to face in the decades to come.' Note: The latest climate projections for New Zealand, available on the Ministry for the Environment's website, provide detailed information for every 5-kilometre square across the country. They are based on refining the projections from six global climate models in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Development of these updated, high-resolution climate projections involved huge supercomputing power. The dataset is now helping New Zealanders – including councils, companies and communities – to better understand their specific climate-related risks. In turn, this will improve decision-making for climate adaptation and support people to build resilience to extreme weather events. More research is being undertaken by Earth Sciences NZ into specific weather and climate hazards in the projections, to provide clarity on the future climate New Zealanders are likely to face in the decades to come.
Scoop
11-08-2025
- Science
- Scoop
Extreme Rainfall In New Zealand From Future Cyclones Could Rise By Up To 35%
Rain from tropical cyclones to increase under warmer climate New high-resolution modelling predicts that rainfall from tropical cyclones will significantly increase under global warming. Earth Sciences New Zealand and the University of Waikato found that, under a high emissions scenario, extreme rainfall from cyclones could rise by up to 35% across the southwest Pacific, including for ex-tropical cyclones impacting Aotearoa New Zealand. Researchers used the latest climate change projections released last year by Earth Sciences NZ (then NIWA) with the Ministry for the Environment. Study lead and climate scientist Dr Peter Gibson says they simulated more than 1,800 years of data from different climate models and levels of greenhouse gas emissions. "We wanted to assess how the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific may change by the end of the century. Under the full range of climate scenarios examined there was an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall. This was proportional to the rate of emissions, with the most pronounced rise in extreme rainfall occurring under the highest emissions." "If that scenario plays out, we can expect around 30 - 35% more extreme rainfall during tropical cyclones than we experience today. Even under the best-case scenario, we will still see an increase proportional to the warming experienced. Extreme windspeeds are also likely to increase, but not to the same extent." "The more greenhouse gases that are emitted, the higher temperatures get, with a high emissions scenario representing around a 3°C increase by the end of the century. A warmer atmosphere holds more water, so when storms develop, they have access to more water vapour that can be released as heavier rainfall. And while the model simulations didn't show an overall increase in the total number of cyclones by the end of the century, there is compelling evidence that the strongest (category 4 and above) will become more frequent." "One or two ex-tropical cyclones typically effect New Zealand each year. However, it's the really big, much rarer events that cause the most damage. And the difference between a river flooding or not can often be small, so any increase in rainfall is significant and potentially very impactful." The February 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle, which at its peak reached category 3, and the Auckland Anniversary weekend event, resulted in total estimated costs of $14.5 billion, with the total insured losses for both events totalling $3.8 billion, with $1.8 billion from Cyclone Gabrielle claims, and $2 billion from the Auckland anniversary weekend event. Most the claims were because of widespread flooding. Until now, most projections of tropical cyclones have relied on global climate models, which have a relatively low spatial resolution. This work refines those models to a regional scale that can zoom in closer and get a much more accurate picture. "The eye of a cyclone is fairly compact, at only tens of kilometres across. Global climate models are coarse, with each pixel going down to around 100km, meaning they miss much of the crucial detail and small-scale physics of a storm. Our refined regional model goes down to around a 12km resolution, making it a state-of-the-art dataset for assessing ex-tropical cyclones that impact New Zealand." These findings, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , are consistent with other studies around the world, highlighting the potential for more intense tropical cyclones and heavier rainfall in the future, said Dr Gibson. This indicates increasing risks for vulnerable communities across the southwest Pacific and New Zealand. "It's clear that if we reduce emissions, we reduce warming, and we mitigate the worst impacts of severe weather events. As computing capabilities improve, newer, high-resolution models will become available to create even more accurate and reliable long term climate projections of cyclones and their impacts. More research is being undertaken by Earth Sciences NZ into specific weather and climate hazards in the projections, to provide clarity on the future climate New Zealanders are likely to face in the decades to come." Note: The latest climate projections for New Zealand, available on the Ministry for the Environment's website , provide detailed information for every 5-kilometre square across the country. They are based on refining the projections from six global climate models in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Development of these updated, high-resolution climate projections involved huge supercomputing power. The dataset is now helping New Zealanders - including councils, companies and communities - to better understand their specific climate-related risks. In turn, this will improve decision-making for climate adaptation and support people to build resilience to extreme weather events. More research is being undertaken by Earth Sciences NZ into specific weather and climate hazards in the projections, to provide clarity on the future climate New Zealanders are likely to face in the decades to come.
RNZ News
06-08-2025
- Science
- RNZ News
Devastating cyclones to get 20-35 percent wetter with fossil fuel emissions
Debris and damage at Redclyffe bridge in Taradale, Napier after Cyclone Gabrielle. Photo: Givealittle / Waiohiki Marae Devastating cyclones like the one that sank the Wahine could get 20-35 percent wetter with fossil fuel emissions, unless countries pick up their climate efforts, a study has found. The most devastating cyclones to hit New Zealand - like Gabrielle, Bola and Giselle, which sank the Wahine in 1968 - have been ex-tropical cyclones. Now new, more precise climate modelling shows they could dump 35 percent more rain by the end of the century. Even if governments lowered emissions enough to keep global temperatures to 2C hotter than the late 1990s and early 2000s, extreme rainfall from tropical and ex-tropical cyclones could rise by up to 20 percent, the peer-reviewed study out of New Zealand found. The world is currently on track to get hotter than that, and only one country - the United Kingdom - has set a target for 2035 consistent with keeping heating to 1.5C, according to charity Climate Action Tracker . "The most relevant take home for New Zealand is that the amount of extreme rainfall coming out of these storms will increase in the future and this increase will be dependent on future temperature increases," said climate scientist Peter Gibson, who led the study with colleagues from Earth Sciences NZ (formerly NIWA) and the University of Waikato. "Under a high emissions scenario we could see as much as 30-35 percent increases ... whereas if we follow more of a moderate emissions pathway the warming would be more like 2°C by the end of the century and that would limit the increase to about 20 percent." He said even that would be significant. "Especially when you're talking about the really devastating events like Gabrielle, Bola and Giselle, these storms can often produce 400mm of rainfall in some places, so 20-30 percent really has strong implications on the ground," Gibson said. The researchers used new, more precise climate modelling which NIWA generated for New Zealand last year. They simulated how extreme cyclones would change in the South Pacific (including New Zealand) under low, medium and high emissions futures. Those levels of greenhouse gases translated to heating of around 1C, 2C and 3C respectively, compared with a baseline of 1995-2014 temperatures. Gibson said they also looked at whether other changes to weather patterns - such as increased high pressure systems or changing winds - might act as a shield and deflect some ex-tropical cyclones from reaching New Zealand. "Unfortunately we don't find strong evidence of that occurring over New Zealand in our simulations." The study confirmed earlier projections by the world's peak climate science body, the IPCC, and others. Earlier modelling has found little evidence that ex-tropical cyclones would become more frequent, but found each storm would bring more intense rain. Gibson said previous findings were based on much lower-resolution models. "This is particularly important for tropical cyclones, because if you think about the eye of a tropical cyclone, these are tens of kilometres across and the resolution of global climate models is roughly 100km. Global climate models really struggle capture tropical cycles," he said. "In our high-resolution models which we using here, we have a much better representation of the physics." The study was funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment through the Building for Climate Change programme and Strategic Science Investment Fund. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Daily Mail
16-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Daily Mail
Newly-engaged AJ Odudu flaunts her jaw-dropping figure in a TINY yellow bikini before cosying up to hunky fiancé Peter Gibson amid loved-up US getaway
Newly-engaged AJ Odudu looked happier than ever amid her 'romance tour' of the US with fiancé Peter Gibson this week. The Celebrity Big Brother host, 37, took to her Instagram with a slew of snaps after MailOnline exclusively revealed her partner was the Idaho born art director. AJ flaunted her jaw-dropping figure in a tiny yellow bikini as she posed up a storm during the couple's beach day, before slipping into a plunging brown gown which she wore with her huge diamond engagement ring for a romantic boat trip. Peter, who refrains from showing his face on social media, captained the vessel while the stunner wrapped her arms around him. While in Seattle the lovebirds also attended a Mariners baseball game and sipped on beer with AJ opting for a pair of skimpy leather hot pants. She captioned the post: 'The romance tour'. Peter popped the question last month and AJ's engagement ring is reportedly worth an estimated £14,500 according to The Sun's expert. Zack Stone, from UK retailer Steven Stone, told the publication: 'At its heart is a 1.5-carat cushion-cut diamond, known for its romantic, pillow-like shape and vintage charm. Last month AJ announced she was engaged to a mystery man after sharing images of her diamond ring and the couple together, captioning the loved-up post: 'Hiya love.' Pete, who was pictured backstage with AJ as she filmed Celebrity Big Brother this year, currently works at brand agency Wieden + Kennedy, who also have offices in London and Mexico as well as the Big Apple. Pete, who's previously worked as a graphic designer for Apple and an art director at Hypebeast, as they start to plan their nuptials. It's believed the former Strictly star has been taking secret trips to New York to spend quality time with Pete, but the couple agrees that for the long-term, it makes sense for them to be London based. A source revealed: 'AJ prefers her romantic relationships to be private but when it came to her engagement, she was so happy and excited, she wanted to share the news with her followers. 'Pete, living in New York, worked out perfectly for AJ because they were able to date and get to know each other away from prying eyes plus he doesn't regularly use social media. 'He's now planning a move to the UK so that he and AJ can live together and properly set themselves up for the future. 'With many strings to his bow as an art director and creator, it made more sense for Pete to relocate, especially given AJ's career has taken off to new heights in the UK. 'They're both so happy and can't wait to make their relationship official by getting married.' The announcement of AJ's engagement came out of the blue because her fanbase were unaware she had a boyfriend. But AJ has been posting about Pete for years, as he attended group work out sessions with her and accompanied the star behind the scenes as she presented Celebrity Big Brother in April. Although, AJ, who also presented The Big Breakfast reboot and Channel 4's The Bridge, keeps her love life under wraps, she was previously linked to her former Strictly pro partner, Kai Widdrington. MailOnline has contacted AJ's representative for comment. AJ competed with Kai on the 2021 series of Strictly but was forced to quit the competition just days before the final after suffering from an injury. She was one of the frontrunners to win the show but after tearing a ligament in her right ankle, had to withdraw from the final, leaving Rose Ayling-Ellis to triumph. At the time AJ said she was 'deeply upset' that she was unable to perform. Proving her love for dance remains, AJ shared a video of her being twirled by Pete on Instagram this week alongside a thread of happy family pictures following a celebration of the pair's engagement. AJ also posted another intimate black and white snap of the couple as she laughed in Pete's arms while in the past 24 hours, she added an Instagram story showcasing her diamond ring over breakfast.
BBC News
15-07-2025
- General
- BBC News
Project to analyse York Minster's Rose Window
A major restoration project is under way at York Minster, which will analyse the famous Rose Window. Due to the devastating fire in 1984, the 500-year-old stained glass window cracked in 40,000 places under the extreme 450C (842F) window, designed in the 16th Century to celebrate the marriage of Henry VII and Elizabeth of York in 1486, was restored by glaziers following the will now re-examine the work, to understand how to better care for the window in the future. The three lancet windows in the cathedral's South Transept are also set to be safeguarded by adding protective windows, which are beneath the Rose Window, depict Saints Peter, Paul, Wilfred and William of to their positioning, they were not subject to the same fire damage but exposure to the elements has rendered them vulnerable to corrosion and paint loss. Prof Sarah Brown, director of the York Glaziers Trust, said the windows had undergone a variety of restorations and additions over the years, as well as being completely removed during World War Two."It was Peter Gibson OBE, former superintendent of the York Glaziers Trust, who insisted that the Rose Window could be saved after the 1984 fire," she said. "At the time, some people saw its perilous condition as an opportunity for a completely new stained glass commission. "Thankfully, his advice was heeded and the glaziers worked tirelessly to restore the artwork."Scaffolding has been put up inside and outside the South Transept to allow teams to access the will look at the repair work from the 1980s and analyse how the restoration methods used have stood the test of time. Alex McCallion, director of works and precinct at the cathedral, added: "Four decades ago, a multidisciplinary team of skilled craftspeople worked to sensitively restore the cathedral after that devastating fire."He said they had used the best tools and techniques available at the time."We now have a fantastic opportunity to re-examine their work to allow us to better understand the Rose Window and how we might care for it into the future."The York Minster Fund was set up in 1967 to pay for projects such as this. In 2024, the Julia Rausing Trust awarded the fund a £500,000 grant, which will support the Rose Window analysis. Listen to highlights from North Yorkshire on BBC Sounds, catch up with the latest episode of Look North.
