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ASX to fall, Wall St wavers after rally
ASX to fall, Wall St wavers after rally

AU Financial Review

time14-05-2025

  • Business
  • AU Financial Review

ASX to fall, Wall St wavers after rally

Australian shares are set to open lower, reflecting a lack of further catalysts that have fuelled a stunning global equities rally on easing trade tensions. There's rising expectation among strategists that markets have run a bit too far too fast. While market sentiment has improved with President Donald Trump's tariff policy pivots, Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer said 'equity valuations are high, particularly in the US, and earnings growth is likely to be moderate, leaving equities at risk of a further setback if recession fears resurface on the back of deteriorating hard data. 'Given these risks, our strongest conviction remains to be diversified across regions. We also favour companies across sectors with the ability to maintain pricing power and margins and recommend strategies that combine value with growth compounders as another way to diversify to enhance risk-adjusted returns.' A key reason for the rally from the year's lows has been a return of the artificial intelligence trade, with President Donald Trump this week giving the green light for US tech to sell their products to Saudi Arabia. 'We believe the market opportunity in Saudi Arabia could over time add another $US1 trillion to the broader global AI market in the coming years and this dynamic is not being priced into the market and tech names in our view,' Wedbush Securities said in a note. Market highlights ASX futures are pointing down 40 points or 0.5 per cent to 8267. All US prices are as of 2.25pm New York time. Today's agenda Xero and Graincorp are set to report results on Thursday morning. Ampol, oOh!media and Resolute Mining will host annual shareholder meetings today. At 11.30am, April's labour force data will be released. In a note, NAB said it expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1 per cent on a 25,000 employment gain in April. 'Monthly employment data is volatile, but trend employment growth has slowed recently even as the unemployment rate has been little changed,' NAB also said. 'Reconciling that tension is a fallback in participation from its recent record high. The RBA forecast an unemployment rate steady at 4.2 per cent from Q2. We think the risk is to the high side of that forecast later this year.' Overseas the focus will be on US April retail sales, PPI and weekly initial jobless claims data. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak, at 10.40pm AEST, on the central bank's five-yearly review of monetary policy strategy. Top stories Macquarie's three lines of defence caught short on reporting | Just two months after the 2009 implementation of controls for trade volume checks, things started to go awry. Go back to Melbourne': NSW Liberals call to end intervention | Sussan Ley and Mark Speakman are under pressure to end federal intervention in the NSW Liberals after the party's disastrous national poll result. Chanticleer: Disclosure doozy makes a mockery of Australia's safe-haven fantasy | If you told a private-equity suitor about a regulatory headache, but not shareholders, was the event disclosable or not? A 15 per cent share price drop says Mayne Pharma got this one wrong. Trump goes for gold in the Middle East | The US president's visit to the region is focused on the money that's on offer. Israel and Gaza are not part of the equation for instant returns, writes Jennifer Hewett.

Wall Street is up to its armpits in bullish calls as tech stocks roar back
Wall Street is up to its armpits in bullish calls as tech stocks roar back

Yahoo

time14-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Wall Street is up to its armpits in bullish calls as tech stocks roar back

U.S. markets regained more ground yesterday and global stocks were mixed today prior to the opening bell in New York. Analysts are bullish as the macro data continues to suggest fertile territory for stocks. U.S. inflation came in lower than expected at 2.3% and JPMorgan walked back its forecast on the chances of an upcoming recession. Markets in Asia and Europe were all over the place this morning—Europe was down in early trading as were the major indexes in Japan and India—but China and South Korea rose, following a good day for U.S. stocks on Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% yesterday, putting it back in positive territory by 0.084% for the year to date. S&P futures were marginally down prior to the opening bell. The macro data continues to look good for equities. U.S. inflation came in lower than expected, at 2.3%. That suggests Fed chair Jerome Powell may be tempted to lower interest rates sooner than previously thought, which would boost stocks. JPMorgan also lowered its prediction on the possibility of a recession in the U.S. The bank now believes the chance is 'below 50%' after the pause in the trade war between the U.S. and China was announced. The bank previously put the chance of a recession at 60%. Wall Street is currently up to its armpits in bullish research notes. At Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer and his team told clients that equities were out of their bear market status. 'Our view remains that we are not likely to experience a structural bear market. While valuations of equities, particularly in the US, are high, they have been largely reflective of strong fundamentals and so there has not been a bubble …The announcement of a 90-day pause in the retaliatory tariffs imposed in April, which will leave the US and China with 2025 tariff increases of +30pp and +15pp, respectively, is much better than we had expected.' President Trump's trip to Saudi Arabia led to a raft of AI-driven trade deals, and that boosted tech stocks. Nvidia was up 5.6% and Palantir was up 8%. Coinbase rose an extraordinary 24% on news that it would be included in the S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial. 'We believe the market opportunity in Saudi Arabia could over time add another $1 trillion to the broader global AI market in the coming years and this dynamic is not being priced into the market and tech names in our view,' Wedbush's Daniel Ives and his team told their clients. Here's a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% yesterday, meaning it is now back in the green by 0.084% for the year to date. S&P futures were down nearly 1% this morning, premarket. Coinbase rose 24% on news that it would be included in the S&P 500, which receives a vast amount of default institutional and retail buying. It was a strong day for other tech stocks, too. Nvidia was up 5.6% and Palantir was up 8%. Asia was mixed today, with the main indexes in China and India on the rise but Japan and South Korea both declined. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.2% in early trading. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Market Rally 'Quite Fragile,' Says Goldman's Oppenheimer
Market Rally 'Quite Fragile,' Says Goldman's Oppenheimer

Yahoo

time01-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Market Rally 'Quite Fragile,' Says Goldman's Oppenheimer

European stocks have risen as US futures slipped as tariff turmoil threw up a mixed impact on company earnings and as investors looked ahead to key US economic data. Europe's Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.4%, with UBS Group shares rising after its net income beat estimates as volatile markets boosted trading profits. Societe Generale rallied 5% as it also benefited from a surge in equities trading. Asian stocks rose. A six-day rally in US stocks looked set to pause as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts edged lower. Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs joins Caroline Hepker and Lizzy Burden on Bloomberg Radio to discuss where markets could go from here. Sign in to access your portfolio

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