Latest news with #PeterTchir
Axios
28-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Tariff revenue is spiking. But who exactly is paying?
Tariffs are making money for the U.S. government, but it remains hard to tell who is footing the bill. Why it matters: Knowing who is paying the tariffs will help investors gauge which companies will see profits squeezed — or protected — as trade tensions continue. By the numbers: The government generated an extra $20 billion for each of the last two months, which could total $240 billion in additional revenue this year, according to Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities. Where it's from: Motor vehicles brought in $3.4 billion, or over 14% of the $24.2 billion in total tariff revenue for May, according to data reviewed by Jason Miller, interim chair of supply chain management at Michigan State University. Vehicle parts added $1.2 billion in tariff revenue, while lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries contributed nearly $480 million. Case in point: GM disclosed $1.1 billion in tariff costs for the second quarter, which aligns with government data, Miller noted. European automaker Volkswagen reported a $1.5 billion tariff hit and cut its outlook, citing fallout from President Trump's trade war. Zoom out: What matters isn't just the tariff rate, but who pays along the chain: a foreign exporter, a U.S. importer, a distributor, or ultimately, the American consumer. Within autos, "there just isn't the demand right now in order to justify essentially charging higher rates," Miller told Axios, which means that companies like GM and Ford may struggle to pass costs to consumers. Zoom in: There are potential winners and losers in this trade war. Industrials are exposed, said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, with $1 trillion in managed assets. The biggest retailers will "gain market share" because they can negotiate favorable terms with suppliers, while smaller firms will struggle, he told Axios. Health care, the worst-performing sector year-to-date, may continue lagging as inflation weighs on consumers. Nvidia and other high-margin technology companies with carveouts are less vulnerable, according to Miller. How it works: Who ultimately pays for the tariffs depends on supply and demand dynamics. There are two key factors. Consumer demand: Weak demand means less pricing power, and companies may have to absorb the cost or risk losing customers. Exporter supply: Retailers have more flexibility to shift supply chains, while manufacturers of complex goods are often locked in. Data show retailers more often eat tariff costs than exporters of machines, which require more intricate work and quality control, leaving exporters in a power position on pricing. Yes, but: Pricing isn't static. Many companies set prices annually, which means the full effect may not be clear until next year.
Bloomberg
14-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 14th, 2025
- Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners - Peter Tchir. Head: Macro Strategy at Academy Securities - Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld - Vito Sperduto, Head: US Capital Markets at RBC Capital Markets Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, joins to discuss how tariff clarity could impact the economy and the risks of inflation in the Us. Peter Tchir. Head: Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, talks about how the market is calculating geopolitical risk as well as President Trump's tariff approach. Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, talks about what she envisions President Trump's final tariff policy to be as it comes into focus. Vito Sperduto, Head: US Capital Markets at RBC Capital Markets, previews bank earnings.
Miami Herald
20-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Fed's Powell sent a blunt message on interest rates this week
Your savings, your investments and your loans are hurting. Tell'em to hang in there a bit longer. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Interest rates are expected to stay steady until maybe – and that's a big maybe – the fall. Related: Fed interest rate cut decision resets forecasts for the rest of this year That's when economists and market watchers say there could be a cut, bringing sweet relief to wallets from Main Street to Wall Street. But the Federal Reserve Board made clear this week it isn't moving interest rates until the impact of one major emerging economic shock is known. Bloomberg/Getty Images The Fed opted to keep rates at their current levels, expecting a rise in inflationary risk over the next three months and perhaps for the rest of the year. This prudent, wait-and-see attitude is directly tied to the White House's whipsawing trade wars, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters. He cited the central bank's dual mandate requiring a cautious approach to monetary policy to keep both inflation and unemployment relatively low. Balancing prices and jobs is challenging because higher interest rates will lower inflation but reduce employment numbers. Conversely, lower interest rates decrease unemployment rates but increase inflation. Related: The Federal Reserve has bigger problem on its hands than tariffs The Federal Open Meeting Committee controls the Federal Funds Rate, which banks charge each other overnight to borrow money. This is tied to the cost of borrowing money for consumers, businesses and investors. Both the May CPI and jobs reports were cooler than expected but housing starts and retail spending saw surprise slumps. The FOMC said it would keep the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25% to 4.50% for June. Anadolu/Getty Images Long-time analyst Peter Tchir said the Fed's holding pattern was a bit of a surprise given the tepid jobs numbers. "They have a fear of tariffs, that at this stage, might be a bit aggressive.'' Tchir wrote on TheStreet Pro. "They seem very content to "wait" to see if it shows up, regardless of any current inflation data. That's somewhat rational, but it's starting to seem excessive.'' Data over the next few months will indicate if the Fed will decide on two or fewer rate cuts in 2025, portfolio manager Chris Versace said in a separate TheStreet Pro post after the FOMC released its quarterly "dot plot." This chart displays where each of its members forecasts what the Federal Funds Rate will be for the current year, the next two years, and the long term. The Fed continues "to telegraph that two 25-basis point rate cuts remain on the table for this year,'' Versace wrote. The March 2025 dot plot projected two 0.25-percentage-point rate cuts this year, two more 0.25 points in 2026, and one 0.25 point in 2027. That was based on pre-tariff data. More Federal Reserve: Fed interest rate cut decision resets forecasts for the rest of this yearFederal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest ratesFed official revamps interest-rate cut forecast for this year Powell repeatedly stayed on message during the press conference. The overall economy is "solid,'' but the uncertainty over inflation is driven by the lagging impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on prices, Powell said. "Tariffs are a driving factor" for the holding pattern, he said. Tariff inflation, which could be temporary, has yet to show up in the nation's supply chain. Trump has given trading partners until July 9 to respond to the tariffs he announced on April 2, aka "Liberation Day." Market watchers and economists anticipated the hold. The widely watched CME FedWatch tool now projects just an 11% rate cut to the Federal Funds Rate in July, Trump, however, didn't give up his demands that the Fed immediately slash rates by up to 2.0%. In the process, he hurled a nasty array of personal insults at Powell and threatened to replace him before his term expires next year. When asked to respond to the president's comments, Powell deflected and said the central bank's decisions are based on data. That would not change, Powell indicated, noting the June rate decision was fully supported by the entire central bank board. The Fed last cut the Federal Funds Rate in December 2024. It meets again July 29-30, 2025. Related: CPI inflation report resets interest rate cut bets The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Miami Herald
16-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: Stocks Set to Open Higher on Expectations for Positive Middle East Resolution
Happy Monday. On TheStreet Pro Stephen Guilfoyle offers a helpful summary of what's happening in the Middle East in today's Daily Market Recon. He tells us that the Israelis "launched a series of highly calculated, well-informed, surgical strikes on Iranian military leadership," which killed several generals, including the commander in chief of the Iranian armed forces and the commander of the Islamic Republican Guard Corps. In response, Iran used drones and ballistic missiles in its counterattack. Israel's Iron Dome system works well against rockets but not so well against ballistic missiles. Attacks from both sides continue today. With all that bad news, what are stock futures doing today? They're up? Related: Economy This Week: Fed's rate decision may pack some drama That's right. S&P 500 futures are up around 100 points since Friday's close, to their highest level since February. Currently they're trading at 6071, which is a gain of 1.6%. Nasdaq futures are higher, too, gaining around 1.8% since Friday. Here are charts of the two. These are intraday charts and I've highlighted Friday's market session in blue, Sunday's global trading in green, and Monday's premarket in yellow. ThinkOrSwim Why are they up? Also on TheStreet Pro, Peter Tchir reports that Israel's Iron Dome is performing better than expected. Also, the Strait of Hormuz remains open and China probably has stepped in to say that it would greatly prefer to continue receiving Iranian oil. And a further worsening could bring the U.S. into the conflict, which nobody wants. You can read more here, in Market Anticipates Postive End to Israel-Iran Conflict After U.S. Involvement Update. What's down? Related: Stocks This Week: Middle East and Fed meeting top investor worries Crude oil. The economic driver is 2% lower to $71.49 because oil fields have been spared thus far in the attacks. However, they're up 24% from lows seen in the aftermath of Liberation Day, April 2, on which President Donald Trump unveiled his tariff plans. Gold is lower, too, though still trading near all-time-highs. Among stock sectors trading before market open, the leaders include energy and oil names. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US brand damage from tariffs will linger for 'foreseeable future'
While US officials prepare for vital trade negotiations with China this weekend, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir joins Madison Mills to outline his three market catalysts and how tariffs have dealt serious damage to American brands. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. Yeah, you mentioned three things that could move markets in the coming weeks here in the short term: China, chips, and that 2026 budget. Where do you see that netting out? You say it can move markets. Is it going to move markets in a way investors like? I I think right now where at, I'm slightly cautious again. It's I feel like everything's getting so well priced in. And the one thing that I'm still concerned about and I don't think the UK did anything to address this yesterday is, I am concerned about American brand sales globally, that we have done such a thing that, you know, US brands were aspirational. You know, this is probably a bit of a stretch, but you go back to the Soviet Union, Levi's represented freedom. And I think to this day, right? People want to be associated with American brands. They like the affiliation, it's aspirational, and I feel a lot of damage has been done to that by the actions we've taken against a bunch of these countries. You've seen, you know, tourism is way down, you've seen some other brands, I think Tesla most noticeably had foreign German sales were way down. Is that a trend? Is that a one-time pump? I don't know. I'm a little bit suspicious that with 40% of S&P 500 earnings coming from foreign revenue sources, that that could be under some pressure, and that we're going to see lackluster sales of US brands globally for, you know, the foreseeable future. And how can you put that toothpaste back in the tube? Right. And I think that's a very different thing. So it's one thing for the leaders to negotiate trade deals, but when people go to the store, are they still thinking like, "I want to own this brand because I like it," or do I not want to own this brand because now I feel America has treated us unfairly? And I think that's a risk that's not being priced into S&P 500 earnings. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
