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Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Science
- Express Tribune
Global warming likely to stay at historic levels
Listen to article The United Nations warned on Wednesday there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels — and to 1.5C if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) — the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade. This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming.
Roya News
6 days ago
- Science
- Roya News
Strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years, says UN
The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,' said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels – and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5C. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) – the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024. Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2C warming now on the radar Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking" and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. 'Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Davide Faranda, from France's CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: "The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy." Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years.
Irish Examiner
6 days ago
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Climate experts call on Government to show 'greater ambition' on reducing carbon emissions
Climate experts have called on the Government to significantly ramp up its focus on meeting Ireland's carbon-reduction targets rather than risk spending the same money on massive EU fines at the end of the decade. New figures from the Environmental Protection Agency show that, at best, Ireland is set to miss its own greenhouse emissions targets by over 50% by 2030. More worrying for the Government, the report shows the country is also set to miss its 2030 EU-mandated carbon targets by a massive margin. It could result in fines worth tens of billions of euro falling upon Ireland for its failure to match the bloc's Effort Sharing Regulation, which penalises member states that are not doing their fair share in terms of climate action. 'Why would you not spend that money now to help citizens and the economy? Why would you instead send that money to overachieving states?' said Peter Thorne, professor in climate change at Maynooth University, in light of the EPA's findings. In effect we'll be sending billions of euro to Spain. And even then, after that we'll still have to reduce our emissions. 'We've got to see greater ambition and spending from Government,' said Prof. Thorne, acknowledging that the issue 'is not just one of Government'. 'We all have to show some ambition in terms of what we can do — in how we spend our money, our time, and what kind of world we want to give to our children.' EPA director general Laura Burke said the 'lack of progress' represented by the figures 'is concerning'. 'Momentum is building for Ireland's low-carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition,' she said. The report brings together metrics from across society and State departments to show which sections are performing reasonably well —renewables, electricity — and those which are doing poorly. Transport, industry, and building heating systems are the three worst sectors in terms of matching their targets. With regard to agricultural emissions — which are expected to reduce by 16% — the EPA said that nevertheless agricultural targets are 'no longer viable' due to the impact of updated science underpinning those assumptions. Emissions from the land sector are projected to increase by up to 95% by 2030, predominantly due to the maturing for harvesting of Ireland's forests. Hannah Daly, professor in sustainable energy at UCC, described the failure by Ireland to match its targets as 'a staggering missed opportunity' given the scale of EU fines which may follow. She said matching our obligations requires 'more than ambition' from the Government. 'It requires leadership, vast investment, and prioritising only truly sustainable economic growth,' said Prof. Daly. 'That means rapidly phasing out fossil fuels by prioritising renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency, and shifting away from an economic model overly reliant on fossil fuels and carbon-intensive agriculture.'
Time of India
6 days ago
- Science
- Time of India
UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5 degrees Celsius in next 4 years
UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5 degrees Celsius in next 4 years (Photo: AFP) The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5 degrees celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization , the UN's weather and climate agency. "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Your Finger Shape Says a Lot About Your Personality, Read Now Tips and Tricks Undo The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels -- and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5 degrees celsius. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change . The more optimistic 1.5 degrees celsius target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO 2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2 degrees celsius and 1.9 degrees celsius above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5 degrees celsius. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024. Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44 degrees celsius. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39 degrees celsius, and projects 1.5 degrees celsius could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2 degrees celsius warming now on the radar Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2 degrees celsius of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking" and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5 degrees celsius benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. Dangerous level of warming Every fraction of a degrees of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40 degrees celsius (104 degrees fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52 degrees celsius (126 degrees fahrenheit), and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Davide Faranda, from France's CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: "The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy." Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon.
NDTV
7 days ago
- Climate
- NDTV
World Body Says 70% Chance That 2025-2029 Warming Will Top 1.5 Degrees
Switzerland: The United Nations warned Wednesday there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5 degrees Celsius target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-Year Outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5 degrees Celsius on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). Longer-Term Outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade. This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44 degrees Celsius. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39 degrees Celsius, and projects 1.5 degrees Celsius could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2Celsius warming now on the radar Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2 degrees Celsius of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52 degrees Celsius (126Fahrenheit), and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon.
