Strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years, says UN
The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark.
The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency.
'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,' said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.
"Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels – and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5C.
The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) – the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.
The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing.
Five-year outlook
The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres.
The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average.
It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C.
"This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth.
"I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added.
The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024.
Longer-term outlook
To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference.
One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44C.
There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming.
The EU's climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner.
2C warming now on the radar
Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming.
"It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife.
"It is shocking" and "that probability is going to rise".
He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024.
'Dangerous' level of warming
Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers.
This year's climate is offering no respite.
Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave.
"We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London.
"Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy."
Davide Faranda, from France's CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: "The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy."
Other warnings
Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO.
Sea ice predictions for 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years.
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Roya News
28-05-2025
- Roya News
Strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years, says UN
The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency. 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,' said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels – and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5C. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) – the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024. Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2C warming now on the radar Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking" and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. 'Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Davide Faranda, from France's CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: "The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy." Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years.
Ammon
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- Ammon
Gravity study shows why the moon's two sides look so different
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Jordan Times
13-04-2025
- Jordan Times
Alia camel: symbol of Jordan's heritage, resilience
AMMAN — The United Nations declared 2024 the International Year of Camelids (IYC 2024). Camels, llamas, alpacas, vicunas, and guanacos are an important source of livelihood for millions of families in deserts and mountainous rangelands around the world. Camelids play a vital role in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals related to the fight against hunger, the eradication of poverty, the empowerment of women, and the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems. From providing milk, meat, fiber, and organic fertiliser to transporting products and people, camelids thrive where other livestock species cannot survive. Jordan In celebration of camels and Bedouin communities in Jordan, the National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), under the patronage of Nizar Haddad (Researcher and former Director General of NARC), and in partnership with Nico Dingemans (founder of From Farm to Fork in Jordan) and Sami Allawama (founder of Camelera camel milk products), organised Ships of the Desert in May 2024 in Wadi Rum, the first IYC event in the Middle East and North Africa. Haddad also led the scientific research The Alia Camel of Jordan: a genetically distinct dromedary breed, which will be published soon, demonstrating that the Alia camels are genetically distinct and deserve preservation. Mohammed Araishi, camel expert at NARC and the Livestock Research Directorate, played a key role in this project. In October 2024, Dingemans and Allawama organised a second camelids event in partnership with FAO Jordan in Amman. In part one of this two-part article, Dingemans delves into the socioeconomic and gastronomic significance of camels and camel products, such as milk, cheese varieties, and meat, with contributions from Allawama, while part two (this article) explores the results of scientific and heritage research by Haddad, Araishi, and the research team. A unique breed in the heart of Jordan Among the diverse types of dromedaries, the Alia camel (locally known as 'Jamal Alia') is a genetically distinct breed found primarily in the arid landscapes of Wadi Araba in the south, and the Jordan Valley in the east. It captured the attention of scientists and cultural enthusiasts alike as recent advanced genomic research identified its' genetic uniqueness due to the exceptional endurance, high milk production, and adaptability to Jordan's diverse environments. Beyond its biological importance, the Alia camel holds a 'special' place in Jordanian culture and history, symbolising resilience, and ingenuity. Heritage written in stone The Alia camel has been a part of Jordan's history since ancient times, dating back to the Nabataean civilisation. Archaeological findings in Petra, including ancient carvings of camels in the Siq, reflect the essential role of camels as indispensable companions for trade and transportation across the Arabian Peninsula. Oral traditions attribute the Alia camel's lineage to the camels of Ali ibn Abi Talib, the son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, further elevating its cultural importance among Jordanian Bedouins. In Jordan's Eastern Desert, rock art further depicts the enduring relationship between camels and Indigenous people of the region. These carvings, etched into the sandstone by early inhabitants, serve as a testament to the camel's importance in daily life and survival, and its' cultural significance is embedded in folklore and identity, social practices and artistic representation. Collaborative research and discovery The 'groundbreaking' research was made possible through the collaboration of several esteemed institutions, including NARC, the University of Jordan, and Victory Genomics. The Alia camel project I initiated as Haddad was supported by the National Centre for Research and Development of the Higher Council for Science and Technology of Jordan, following his prior genetic studies of local Awassi sheep, historical Mehras olive trees, and indigenous honeybee populations, showcasing Jordan's rich agricultural biodiversity. Why Alia camel stands out The study leveraged whole-genome sequencing (WGS), confirming that the Alia camel is genetically distinct from other dromedaries in the Arabian Peninsula. Its' phenotypic characteristics show remarkable traits, such as endurance and speed, high milk yield, adaptability and genetic distinction. This genetic distinctiveness is not due to geographical isolation but rather careful breeding practices in Jordan and the Alia camel's genetic diversity is comparable to or greater than other camel populations, emphasising its biological significance. Challenges, call for conservation Despite its resilience, the Alia camel faces numerous challenges, including habitat loss, modernisation, and a lack of formal recognition as a distinct breed. Conservation efforts are essential to preserving its legacy. Conservation matters due to several aspects related to cultural preservation, economic value, biodiversity. To ensure its survival, several steps must be taken, including official breed recognition, expanded research and monitoring, sustainable breeding, research expansion and public awareness. Page 2
