Latest news with #PeterTuchman
Straits Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
US stocks slump ahead of key US inflation report
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Stock trader Peter Tuchman "Einstein of Wall Street" works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell on Aug 11, 2025. NEW YORK - Wall Street stocks tumbled on Aug 11 on investor trepidation ahead of key US inflation data, despite news reports that President Donald Trump had signed an order to extend a US tariff truce with China . The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.5 per cent to 43,975.09, while the broad-based S&P 500 Index lost 0.3 per cent to 6,373.45. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3 per cent to 21,385.40. The gloomy showing came even as US media reported that Mr Trump was delaying the reimposition of higher tit-for-tat tariffs on Chinese products for 90 days. Mr Trump separately added in a Truth Social post that gold would not face additional US tariffs , after a customs letter that was made public last week said gold bars at two weights – 1k and 2.8kg – should be classified as subject to duties. For now, investors are awaiting consumer price index data due early Aug 12 for signs of how Mr Trump's various tariffs have hit the economy. Since returning to the presidency this year, Mr Trump has slapped wide-ranging tariffs on US trading partners and sector-specific imports. 'If that data comes in weaker than expected, meaning inflation fell because the economy's slowing down, that's going to be a double-edged sword,' said Mr Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments. Markets could see a weaker number as good news as it gives the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates further. 'On the other hand, it's not bullish because that means the economy's slowing down,' he added. Pointing to a recent employment report that signaled a weakening jobs market, Mr Sarhan said that it remains unclear if the downcast figures were a one-off report or signs of a more widespread decline. AFP
Newsweek
2 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Recession is Still Coming, Warns Reagan Economic Adviser
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The U.S. is on the cusp of a major economic downturn, according to a leading economist who served on Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, despite such fears having abated for many. In a recent interview, Steve Hanke, currently a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, described the contraction in the U.S. money supply—the total amount circulating in the economy—as a "harbinger of things to come." "I think things will continue to show weakness and slow down in the United States and probably end up tipping into a recession later this year," he added. Why It Matters The delayed imposition and inflationary impacts of tariffs, the easing of trade tensions with countries like China, as well as robust GDP growth in the second quarter, has prompted some economists to lower their forecasts of a recession in America's near future. However, Hanke believes that dismissing this possibility is a mistake, and issues that have been simmering beneath the surface of the U.S. economy since the COVID pandemic remain unresolved and could soon trigger significant economic upheaval. What To Know Hanke has been warning of an impending recession since 2022, largely due to the stagnation of money supply in the U.S.. In an article for the Wall Street Journal that year, he attributed this to loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve to cushion the pandemic's economic impacts. "We will enter a recession either late this year or early next year," Hanke said in August 2024, adding that the total U.S. money supply was then lower than in July 2022, and that the economy was "running on fumes." Stock trader Peter Tuchman "Einstein of Wall Street" works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell in New York City, on August 11, 2025. Stock trader Peter Tuchman "Einstein of Wall Street" works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell in New York City, on August 11, 2025. Timothy A. Clary/AFP Overall money supply—which Hanke notes is tied to nominal GDP—has risen since its recent lows, according to Federal Reserve data. However, it is still in line with 2022 levels, and growth remains below Hanke's "Golden" rate of 6 percent. Hanke acknowledged the inaccuracy of his previous forecasts, but said: "I think we eventually will be proven correct because there have only been four significant contractions in the money supply in the United States since the Fed was founded in 1913 and those were all followed by recessions." In a separate interview, Hanke said that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump, have been overly focused on interest rates as the make-or-break solution to inflation and wider economic issues. "Monetary policy is not about interest rates, it's about changes in the money supply," he said. "So they're just looking at the wrong gauge." Hanke added that "regime uncertainty," and the unclear outlook for U.S. businesses regarding changes to the trading environment under Trump, was "depressing things further," and causing businesses to hold off on hiring and investment plans. What People Are Saying Economist Steve Hanke in a June interview said: "This is a slow-moving train. Once you get these contractions in the money supply, we will have long and variable lags that ultimately affect economic activity, and that's what's happening. I think the train will arrive in the second half of the year, and things will continue to slow down." What Happens Next? Hanke has forecast an 80 to 90 percent chance of a recession in the near future.
Forbes
04-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Tariffs, Tumult And The Value Of Staying The Course
Peter Tuchman (aka Einstein of Wall Street) capturing the emotion of a day in which stocks plunged. President Donald Trump formally declared 'Tariff Liberation Day' this week—and with it, a seismic shift in U.S. trade policy. The newly signed Executive Order, issued April 2, 2025, imposes a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, with elevated country-specific duties—34% for China, 46% for Vietnam, 24% for Japan and 20% for the European Union. The justification? Persistent trade imbalances that, in the President's view, pose an 'extraordinary threat' to America's national and economic security. While the stated goal is to level the playing field and reignite domestic manufacturing, I'd be remiss not to acknowledge the risks. Tariffs are, after all, a tax. Companies reliant on global supply chains may see costs rise, margins compress and profits shrink. Consumers, too, may feel the pinch as prices adjust to reflect a new reality of reduced foreign competition, not to mention tariff-cost pass-alongs. And if retaliation comes—as it often does—the consequences could be global in scope. Investor sentiment had already soured going into the announcement. This week's sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual (AAII) revealed that just 21.8% of respondents identify as bullish, while a whopping 61.9% call themselves bearish. That's among the most pessimistic readings in the 38-year history of mood m0notoring on Main Street. In fact, there have been only two other weekly tallies since 1987 that were more Bearish. The first of these was on October 18, 1990, during the first Gulf War, and the second was March 5, 2009, four days before stocks bottomed during the Great Financial Crisis. There are never any guarantees that history repeats, but the six-month forward returns for the broad-based Russell 3000 Index were 32.1% and 52.7%, respectively. I've often said that volatility is the norm, not the exception, and history is replete with scary headlines that ultimately proved fleeting for those with patience and discipline. Our research at The Prudent Speculator has tracked the S&P 500's response to 20 major market shocks since 2010—from the European debt crisis to Brexit to COVID to the first Trump Trade War. The results? That's not to suggest tariffs won't hurt. The economic path ahead is murky, and it's entirely possible we see an earnings recession—or worse. But I've always believed that market bottoms are made not when skies are blue, but when fear is greatest. And with investor sentiment this bleak, I can't help but feel we're closer to opportunity than calamity. The key, I believe, is selectivity. Not all stocks will weather the storm equally, but undervalued, dividend-paying companies—particularly those with strong balance sheets and a track record of prudent capital discipline—are well-positioned to navigate the turbulence. And unlike macro headlines, dividends pay investors to wait. We've been down this path before. In 2018, the original round of tariffs led to handwringing, volatility and ultimately, a strong recovery. Could this time be different? Of course. But I'd argue that abandoning a long-term investment plan now—just as others are panicking—would be doing precisely what history suggests we should avoid. As always, I'll be sticking to time-tested principles: stay disciplined, stay invested and lean into value when others run from it.
