Latest news with #PhilipVerleger
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Retail diesel benchmark price resumes downward momentum
Retail diesel prices declined last week, according to the benchmark number published by the federal government, picking up on a downward trend that had taken a break the prior week. The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price fell 4.9 cents a gallon to $3.487, a drop of 4.9 cents. It follows a 6 cents per gallon increase for the weekly price posted a week ago. With the latest decline, it resumes a downward trend that had seen the benchmark used for most fuel surcharges fall five consecutive a recent high of $3.715 a gallon on Jan. 20, the price is now down 22.8 cents. Ultra low sulfur diesel on the CME has dropped sharply the past two weeks. On May 14, it settled at $2.2061 a gallon. The settlement Tuesday was $2.0794, a decline of 12.67 cents. Oil markets rebounded Wednesday, with ULSD settling at $2.0881 a gallon. That fall between May 14 and Tuesday was 5.7%. But Brent crude, the world benchmark, declined only 3% during that time. In his weekly commentary, energy economist Philip Verleger, who has always viewed diesel as a leading indicator of not just oil markets but of economic activity, says data coming out of the diesel market is pointing toward a slowdown in economic a headline that referred to data on distillate consumption – diesel is a distillate and makes up about 90% of the EIA data under distillate – Verleger writes that the numbers are the 'canary in the coal mine.' He said weekly data on U.S. distillate consumption through the week ending May 16 showed a 600,000-barrel-per-day decline from a mid-February peak, which he says is extremely large by historical standards. Verleger found a similar, disquieting decline: the period between August and November 2008, as the Great Recession was tightening its grip on the U.S. He said some of the decline could be because earlier numbers were skewed by imports being pulled forward due to avoidance of potential tariffs. But it is not just that, according to Verleger. It also reflects 'the ongoing reduction in investment activity that is not yet reflected in forecasts.' Citing the 2008 data, Verleger said, 'the drop in distillate use corresponded to the decline in real GDP.' 'Thus, we suspect the current drop in use, particularly since the beginning of March, warns of a slowdown in investment that will be reported later in 2025 and in 2026,' he wrote in the report. 'This decrease will also feed back into the GDP calculations.' Oil markets in recent weeks have been reacting not just to macroeconomic concerns driven by tariff uncertainty. They also are moving lower on the determination by OPEC+ to unwind its organization's production cutbacks, with more than 400,000 barrels per day scheduled to come back online in June. Additionally, OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet virtually this weekend and affirm another increase of that magnitude to go into effect in articles by John Kingston BMO's Q2 earnings show no improvement in credit conditions for trucking Double whammy for Wabash: 2 key agencies cut debt rating on trailer builder Despite red ink at Heartland, Morgan Stanley report relatively upbeat The post Retail diesel benchmark price resumes downward momentum appeared first on FreightWaves.
Economic Times
29-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Crude oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel by 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday.U.S. President Donald Trump's push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against U.S. imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week."A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production," oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on U.S. oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.
Zawya
29-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook
Crude oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel by 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump's push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against U.S. imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts. Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year. Several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week. "A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production," oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday. Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on U.S. oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday. (Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York; Editing by Sonali Paul)
Business Recorder
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook
Crude oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel by 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump's push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against U.S. imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts. Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year. Several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week. Oil prices stable amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears 'A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production,' oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday. Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on U.S. oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.
Time of India
29-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook
Crude oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel by 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump's push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against U.S. imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts. Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year. Live Events Several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week. "A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production," oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday. Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on U.S. oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.
