
Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook
Live Events
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
Crude oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel by 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday.U.S. President Donald Trump's push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against U.S. imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts.Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year.Several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week."A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production," oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note.Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday.Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on U.S. oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

Business Standard
7 minutes ago
- Business Standard
No immediate impact from China's export curbs on magnets: Maruti Suzuki
Maruti Suzuki, India's top-selling carmaker, said on Monday there is no immediate production impact from China's export curbs on rare earth magnets, a key component, and that it is in talks with the government on the matter. Auto industry manufacturers told government officials last week that production could stall within days due to the curbs, Reuters reported. They are worried by the complexity of a new import process requiring approval from Indian and Chinese officials as well as documents including end-use certificates stating the magnets are not for military purposes. When asked how many weeks of inventory Maruti has before production is impacted, the automaker said it has submitted an import application and that it would be difficult to comment or give "very specific details" until it receives a response. "It is not a restriction. It is an endorsement of end use. In case there is an issue, we will ... inform all our stakeholders, including the stock exchange," Rahul Bharti, senior executive director, corporate affairs, told reporters. China controls over 90 per cent of global processing capacity for the magnets, which are used in fields as varied as automobiles, home appliances and clean energy. It enacted measures in April requiring companies to obtain import permits. In a meeting with commerce ministry officials last month, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers said inventories at parts makers are likely to run out by the end of May. "Starting end May or early June, auto industry production is expected to come to a grinding halt," the body said in the document presented during a May meeting attended by executives including from Maruti. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)


Mint
14 minutes ago
- Mint
Weak dollar reprises its role as carry trade funder
Trump's presidency boosts dollar-funded carry trades Goldman Sachs sees carry trades as a major theme Rupee, rupiah and real among top picks for their carry MUMBAI, June 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's weakness since the start of Donald Trump's presidency has made it the preferred funding currency for popular "carry" trades, fuelling heavy flows into higher-yielding emerging market currencies. Dollar-funded carry trades in the Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee, Brazilian real, Turkish lira among other currencies, are back in vogue, fund managers said. In a typical currency carry trade, investors use cheap-to-borrow currencies to fund investments in those with better yields. Returns are boosted if the borrowed currency weakens. The dollar, traditionally less favoured than the Japanese yen or Swiss franc for such trades, has become the funding currency of choice as Trump's trade war stokes recession worries and an investor retreat from U.S. Treasuries. Carl Vermassen, a portfolio manager at Zurich-based asset manager Vontobel, has added to carry trades on the rupee and rupiah. "Emerging market local currency was basically shunned for the simple reason: to avoid local currency risk at a time of an almighty dollar," he said. "But, given most investors deem U.S. exceptionalism to have ended, things are changing." Claudia Calich, head of emerging market debt at M&G Investments, also expects dollar weakness to persist and support carry trades. The London-headquartered fund oversees more than 312 billion pounds ($423.5 billion) and favours the rupee and Philippine peso for carry positions within Asia and the Brazilian real and Mexican peso in Latin America. The more investors rush back into dollar carry trades, the deeper the dollar's losses are likely to be, analysts said. The dollar index has fallen 8.5% so far this year, dropping below the critical 100 mark in mid-April for the first time in nearly two years. It was last seen at 99.30. That means investors are finding good carry not just in the likes of the rupee and rupiah, whose yields are above those in the United States, but even those with low interest rates such as the South Korean won. The won has led gains in Asian currencies this year with a 6.7% rally against the dollar. The yield advantage over dollars, or the "carry", measured by the three-month tenure is 2% on the Indian rupee and 1.2% for Indonesia's rupiah. Brazil's real gives a much higher carry at 9% but is far more volatile, meaning the trade could go horribly wrong if the currency depreciates, instead of appreciating. The future expected 3-month volatility, also called implied volatility, for the real is 8.1% compared with 4.7% for the rupee. Goldman Sachs said carry trades were "a big theme" in recent meetings with its New York clients, with interest growing in Latin American and European markets. "If volatility settles some more, we will start to hear more about dollar-funded carry trades," ING Bank said. "This could be a story for this summer." Since "FX carry trades" typically involve investments in bond or money markets in these destinations, analysts expect to see heavy flows into emerging markets. Data for April shows investors bought bonds worth $8.92 billion, the highest for any month since last August, in South Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. While some of those flows could have been straight real-money investments into these markets, analysts say carry trades also boomed. In South Korea, foreign investors bought $7.91 billion in bonds, the most since May 2023. Tom Nakamura, vice-president and head of fixed income & currencies at Canadian fund AGF Investments, finds carry trades in Turkey attractive since the central bank's adoption of more orthodox monetary policy. Turkey's benchmark rates are at 46%. (Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Additional reporting by Jaspreet Singh Kalra in Mumbai and Johann Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Jacqueline Wong)


Mint
14 minutes ago
- Mint
Aluminium industry body says Trumps move to double tariff will hurt sector
New Delhi, Aluminium industry body AAI has expressed concerns that US President Donald Trump's announcement to double tariffs on aluminium imports in that country will hurt the Indian manufacturers who are already under pressure from surging low-cost imports. On May 30, Trump announced that he would double the existing 25 per cent tariffs on aluminium imports from June 4. "The 50 per cent tariff announced by Trump will damage the Indian aluminium industry, which is already under pressure from surging low-cost imports," Aluminium Association of India said. The metal has strategic importance to the country and critical to industries such as defence, aerospace, energy transition, telecommunications, power and construction, it said, adding that both primary aluminium and poor quality scrap are entering the country in large volumes, threatening to create a surplus, suppress domestic prices, and undercut the viability of domestic producers. Though the government just announced a 12 per cent provisional safeguard duty on certain steel imports, AAI said there should be duty guardrails for the aluminium industry as well, which has so far invested more than Rs. 1.5 lakh crore to set up the current domestic primary aluminium capacity of 4.2 million tonnes per annum . FIMI Director General B K Bhatia stated that the major share of Indian exports of aluminium is accounted by US valuing about USD 946 million. A further increase in tariff is bound to have adverse impact on Indian aluminium exports market. "We are hopeful that this issue will get resolved during ongoing trade negotiations between India and USA," he said. In 2024-25, India exported iron, steel, and aluminium products worth USD 4.56 billion to the US, with key categories including USD 587.5 million in iron and steel, USD 3.1 billion in articles of iron or steel and USD 860 million in aluminium and related articles. This proposed hike is tariff comes under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions if imports are deemed a threat to national security. Trump originally invoked this provision in 2018 to set the 25 per cent tariff on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium. He raised tariffs on aluminium to 25 per cent in February 2025. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.