11-08-2025
Don't forget Nicola Sturgeon's real legacy
Nicola Sturgeon gets an easy ride with the English media. This weekend, with a book to flog and an image to launder, we've had to endure another round of softball interviews with the former first minister. And what have we learnt? Her sexuality is 'non-binary'; she has 'famed emotional intelligence'; she handled Covid better than Boris; she is the most successful woman in politics since Margaret Thatcher.
Some of that may be true, some of it demonstrably false. But what matters is the Scotland she left behind.
To judge the success of Scotland – and those who lead it – three categories matter most. Two were once sources of national pride; one has always been our Achilles' heel. Education was once the envy of the world and our economy once punched above its weight, but health outcomes have long been grim. In Glasgow, a man born in the east end can expect to live a decade less than one born in the west. Fixing that should be central to any progressive's mission.
1. Education
Sturgeon said in 2016 that closing the attainment gap between rich and poor would be her 'defining mission'. The gap is as wide as ever.
By age 11, there is still a 20-point literacy gap and a 19-point numeracy gap between the richest and poorest pupils. Higher pass rates remain stubbornly unequal. Rather than confront this, Sturgeon withdrew Scotland from the 'Timss' and 'Pirls' studies, making international comparison impossible. By the time Humza Yousaf reversed the decision, the latest 'Pisa' rankings showed Scottish pupils a year behind their English counterparts – despite a testing bias in Scotland's favour. Ministers now trumpet tiny, statistically irrelevant 'narrowings' of the gap. In 2015, Sturgeon had said: 'Let me be clear, I want to be judged on this.'
2. Economy
Scotland enjoys one of the largest budget deficits in the developed world.
As a result of the Barnett Formula, at the point when Sturgeon resigned, spending on public services in Scotland is some 30 per cent higher than it is in England – a financial bonus that pays for many of the SNP's flagship policies. The deficit last year was some 10 per cent of GDP; EU membership requires it to be no higher than 3 per cent. Scotland also has the highest income tax rates in the UK, and little to show for it.
The picture is no brighter in industry. Look at the ferry fiasco: in 2015, a £97 million contract was handed to a shipyard owner friendly with Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon. The cost has since exploded to over £450 million – and only one of the two promised vessels is in service.
3. Health
Life expectancy for Scots men and women has seen the sharpest fall in 40 years – accelerating in the time Sturgeon's been in power.
Scottish men born in the last year before Sturgeon resigned could expect to live for 77 years, the lowest of any UK country (it was 79 in England) and a fall of some 18 weeks on the previous year. The same was true for women, who could expect to live to 81 – a six week fall. Glasgow had the lowest life expectancy of anywhere in the UK.
There's was a ten-year gap in life expectancy between baby girls born in the poorest and richest areas of Scotland. For boys it's almost 14 years. At the point Sturgeon left office, this poverty gap had grown some 1.3 years for males and 1.6 years for females since 2013.
Much of this ill health was because drug deaths soared during her administration. Deaths from 'drug-related' causes in Scotland reached record highs for seven years in a row (five of which on Sturgeon's watch). More people die from drug misuse in Scotland than anywhere else in Europe. During Sturgeon's premiership, the heads of Scotland's 'drug taskforce' resigned because of government desires to meet targets rather than make lasting change.
Sturgeon is well regarded by lockdown zealots in England because they think she did things better than Boris. In reality, she just had a good PR machine. When I was a civil service statistician in Scotland during the early days of Covid, someone in my department was taken away from their regular duties to produce a daily report for the then first minister on how she was outperforming England. But when everything was said and done, the numbers of those who died from coronavirus did not vary wildly across the border.
Apart from education, health and the economy, let's not forget politics. In pure electoral terms, Sturgeon was formidable, winning eight straight elections. Yet the SNP's dominance owes much to the electoral maths: as long as a significant minority back independence, the party remains on top in Holyrood.
On that core mission, however, she delivered nothing. Multiple announcements of a second referendum came to nothing; polls barely shifted; independence is now barely discussed, even among the faithful. If Sturgeon wanted a legacy beyond public-sector failure, she had advance independence.
I spent the weekend in Sturgeon's native Ayrshire. A few years ago, politics and the constitution dominated every conversation. Now? Hardly a mention of the woman or her cause.
