Latest news with #PitiDisyatat
Bangkok Post
10-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thai central bank sees 18 months of sub-2% growth
The Bank of Thailand has assessed the Thai economy is likely to grow at a rate of less than 2% over the next 18 months, primarily due to pressures from US tariff policies. Speaking at a monetary policy forum on Wednesday, Piti Disyatat, deputy governor for monetary stability at the central bank, said the heightened uncertainties arising from US tariffs on Thai exports are expected to negatively impact the country's exports, private investment, and domestic consumption in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026. The central bank will continue to monitor the impacts of US tariffs to better anticipate the country's economic trajectory, but the policy represents a significant external shock to both the global and Thai economies, and its adverse effects are expected to persist into next year, said Mr Piti. Given the increased uncertainty, the Thai economy is projected to slow in the second half of 2025. For the third and fourth quarters of this year, average GDP growth is projected at 1.6% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, he said. The central bank forecasts economic growth of 2.3% for 2025, with a 2.9% expansion in the first half and a 1.6% increase in the second half. For 2026, the regulator slashed its growth forecast to 1.7%. "On average, Thailand's quarterly GDP growth in 2026 is projected to be 0.6%, which is below the potential growth rate of 0.7-0.8% per quarter," said Mr Piti. Due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, Thai exports are expected to grow by 4% in 2025, but contract by 2% in 2026. Private investment is projected to grow 1.7% this year before slowing to 0.9% next year, while domestic consumption is expected to expand 2% in 2025 and slow to 1.7% in 2026, according to the central bank. The regulator estimates exports will contract by 4% in the second half of this year, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs, following a strong 12.6% expansion in the first half driven by front-loaded shipments. Mr Piti said the central bank and its Monetary Policy Committee expect the effects of the external shock to linger into next year. As a result, the bank's monetary policy will be aligned with the direction of the Thai economy in the second half of this year and throughout next year, he said. "Maintaining policy space is essential to support economic resilience amid long-term uncertainties," said Mr Piti. "A policy rate cut would do little to stimulate economic activity given the subdued loan demand." Sakkapop Panyanukul, assistant governor for monetary policy at the central bank, said domestic political uncertainty is one factor to monitor as the Thai economy faces political risks, especially delays in the approval of the fiscal budget.
Bangkok Post
09-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
BoT pegs growth at sub-2% for 18 months
The Bank of Thailand has assessed the Thai economy is likely to grow at a rate of less than 2% over the next 18 months, primarily due to pressures from US tariff policies. Speaking at a monetary policy forum on Wednesday, Piti Disyatat, deputy governor for monetary stability at the central bank, said the heightened uncertainties arising from US tariffs on Thai exports are expected to negatively impact the country's exports, private investment, and domestic consumption in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026. The central bank will continue to monitor the impacts of US tariffs to better anticipate the country's economic trajectory, but the policy represents a significant external shock to both the global and Thai economies, and its adverse effects are expected to persist into next year, said Mr Piti. Given the increased uncertainty, the Thai economy is projected to slow in the second half of 2025. For the third and fourth quarters of this year, average GDP growth is projected at 1.6% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, he said. The central bank forecasts economic growth of 2.3% for 2025, with a 2.9% expansion in the first half and a 1.6% increase in the second half. For 2026, the regulator slashed its growth forecast to 1.7%. "On average, Thailand's quarterly GDP growth in 2026 is projected to be 0.6%, which is below the potential growth rate of 0.7-0.8% per quarter," said Mr Piti. Due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, Thai exports are expected to grow by 4% in 2025, but contract by 2% in 2026. Private investment is projected to grow 1.7% this year before slowing to 0.9% next year, while domestic consumption is expected to expand 2% in 2025 and slow to 1.7% in 2026, according to the central bank. The regulator estimates exports will contract by 4% in the second half of this year, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs, following a strong 12.6% expansion in the first half driven by front-loaded shipments. Mr Piti said the central bank and its Monetary Policy Committee expect the effects of the external shock to linger into next year. As a result, the bank's monetary policy will be aligned with the direction of the Thai economy in the second half of this year and throughout next year, he said. "Maintaining policy space is essential to support economic resilience amid long-term uncertainties," said Mr Piti. "A policy rate cut would do little to stimulate economic activity given the subdued loan demand." Sakkapop Panyanukul, assistant governor for monetary policy at the central bank, said domestic political uncertainty is one factor to monitor as the Thai economy faces political risks, especially delays in the approval of the fiscal budget.
CNA
09-07-2025
- Business
- CNA
Thai central bank sees economy slowing in second half as tariffs hit exports
BANGKOK :Thailand's economy is expected to slow in the second half of the year and faces heightened uncertainty, the central bank said on Wednesday, as consumer confidence hit the lowest level in more than two years. Thai exports, a key driver of the economy, were expected to contract 4 per cent on a yearly basis in the second half of the year as a result of the tariffs imposed by the United States, the Bank of Thailand said. The United States was Thailand's largest export market last year, accounting for 18.3 per cent of total shipments and reaching a value of $55 billion. Washington says its trade deficit with Thailand hit $45.6 billion in 2024. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy faces tariffs of 36 per cent from Washington if a deal cannot be reached before August 1. Uncertainty around tariffs and government stability pushed consumer confidence to its lowest in 28 months, falling for a fifth consecutive month, a university survey showed on Wednesday. The economy is growing below its potential, and is forecast to expand 2.3 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2026, deputy central bank governor Piti Disyatat said, adding those forecasts had already factored in the headwinds. In the first five months of 2025, exports rose 14.9 per cent from a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed, as companies rushed to deliver their products before a 90-day tariff pause came to an end. That pause has now been extended to August. The central bank forecast exports to rise 4 per cent this year but drop 2 per cent next year. A shippers' group on Wednesday cut its export growth forecast from a range of 0 per cent to 1 per cent from 1 per cent to 3 per cent seen earlier. Thai economic growth and financial conditions were held back by several factors and monetary policy alone had limited efficacy when addressing those issues, minutes from the Bank of Thailand's June 25 monetary policy meeting showed on Wednesday. At the meeting, the BOT's monetary policy committee voted 6 to 1 to keep the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent, after back-to-back cuts in February and April. "Targeted measures in conjunction with business adaptation were deemed necessary," it said. At the review, the stronger-than-expected start to the year saw the BOT lift its central-case economic growth forecast to 2.3 per cent for 2025, almost matching last year's 2.5 per cent and more optimistic than some market analysts. The next rate review is on August 13.
CNA
09-07-2025
- Business
- CNA
Thai economy to slow in second half of 2025, central bank says
BANGKOK :Thailand's economy is expected to slow in the second half of the year and faces heightened uncertainty, the central bank said at a briefing on Wednesday. Thai exports, a key driver of the economy, were expected to contract 4 per cent on a yearly basis in the second half of the year as a result of the tariffs imposed by the United States, the Bank of Thailand said. The United States was Thailand's largest export market last year, accounting for 18.3 per cent of total shipments and reaching a value of $55 billion. Washington says its trade deficit with Thailand hit $45.6 billion in 2024. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy faces tariffs of 36 per cent from Washington if a deal cannot be reached before August 1. The economy is growing below its potential, and is forecast to expand 2.3 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2026, Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat said, adding that those forecasts had already factored in the headwinds. In the first five months of 2025, exports rose 14.9 per cent from a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed, as companies rushed to deliver their products before a 90-day tariff pause came to an end. That pause has now been extended to August. The central bank forecast exports to rise 4 per cent this year but drop 2 per cent next year. Thai economic growth and financial conditions were held back by several factors and monetary policy alone had limited efficacy when addressing those issues, minutes from the Bank of Thailand's June 25 monetary policy meeting showed on Wednesday. At the meeting, the BOT's monetary policy committee voted 6 to 1 to keep the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent, after back-to-back cuts in February and April. "Targeted measures in conjunction with business adaptation were deemed necessary," it said. At the review, the stronger-than-expected start to the year saw the BOT lift its central-case economic growth forecast to 2.3 per cent for 2025, almost matching last year's 2.5 per cent and more optimistic than some market analysts. The next rate review is on August 13.
Bangkok Post
27-06-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Bank of Thailand vows to step in if baht moves are unhinged
Thailand's central bank is ready to tackle excessive baht volatility by managing any moves 'unhinged' from its fundamentals, a deputy governor said, amid calls from local businesses to temper the currency's rally to help exports and tourism. 'We do look at the baht closely and try not to let it be too volatile,' Piti Disyatat said in an interview late on Thursday. 'If it's driven by non-fundamental reasons, portfolio perceptions, sentiment that's unhinged with macro fundamentals then we will reduce the volatility.' The baht has surged about 5% this year, prompting some ministers and business groups to call for the central bank to weaken the currency to boost exports and tourism — the nation's biggest drivers of growth. The baht fell 0.3% to 32.57 per dollar on Friday, underperforming Asian peers. Mr Piti's comments also come at a time when the nation is in trade talks with the US to lower a 36% tariff rate on its goods. President Donald Trump has long accused Asian countries for maintaining undervalued exchange rates that helped them amass trade surpluses with the US. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) doesn't target any particular level or direction for the baht and its gain this year is in line with regional peers, Mr Piti said. The currency is little changed on a trade-weighted exchange-rate basis and hasn't hurt the country's export competitiveness, he said. Thailand's exchange rate policy complies with the International Monetary Fund code when it comes to managing volatility so it shouldn't become an issue, Mr Piti said, when asked if tariff talks with the Trump administration included exchange rate. While foreign-exchange intervention was one instrument at the central bank's disposal to maintain stability, the BoT mostly allows the flexible exchange regime to absorb shocks, Mr Piti said, adding 'we manage it only when we really have to'. The baht's move in tandem with gold prices is not deemed as a fundamental reason, though it amplifies the currency's movements, he said. A jump in Thailand's foreign reserves to a record $259.9 billion this month reflects valuation adjustments in its asset holdings, rather than the central bank mopping up additional dollars, Mr Piti said.
