Latest news with #PoonPanichpibool
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Thai growth likely slowed in first quarter on weak investment and consumption: Reuters poll
By Rahul Trivedi BENGALURU (Reuters) - Economic growth in Thailand likely slowed in the first quarter, weighed down by subdued private investment, weaker household consumption and a drop in tourism, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 2.9% on average in the three months to March 31 from the same period a year earlier, the May 8–14 poll of 20 economists showed. Estimates ranged between 2.2% and 3.8%. The economy grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The government is scheduled to release the data on May 19. Tepid domestic demand and softening tourist arrivals from China were partly cushioned by stronger exports and higher government spending, a Bank of Thailand report said late last month. Private investment - which shrank 1.6% last year - was a drag on the economy in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, slightly faster than the 0.4% increase in the quarter ended December 31, a smaller poll sample showed. "Private investment could be a drag on the economy in the first quarter because a lot of businesses seem to have falling confidence," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank. Panichpibool said the main driver of first-quarter growth would still be exports, which had been expanding by double digits up until the past few months due to the rush to avoid tariffs. Private consumption would also continue to grow steadily. Thailand faces tariffs of 36% on its exports to the U.S. although the government said it has received a positive response from Washington for a possible trade deal. "Thailand is likely to reach a deal that aligns with a universal 10% tariff, similar to what competitors like Vietnam might agree to. This would limit the disadvantage to Thai exporters," said Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thai Bank. An April survey showed economists had lowered their 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.9% in a January survey. That was above the Bank of Thailand's 2.0% projection in April and the International Monetary Fund's more conservative 1.8% forecast in May. The central bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time last month to support the economy. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Thai growth likely slowed in first quarter on weak investment and consumption
BENGALURU, May 15 (Reuters) - Economic growth in Thailand likely slowed in the first quarter, weighed down by subdued private investment, weaker household consumption and a drop in tourism, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 2.9% on average in the three months to March 31 from the same period a year earlier, the May 8–14 poll of 20 economists showed. Estimates ranged between 2.2% and 3.8%. The economy grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The government is scheduled to release the data on May 19. Tepid domestic demand and softening tourist arrivals from China were partly cushioned by stronger exports and higher government spending, a Bank of Thailand, opens new tab report said late last month. Private investment - which shrank 1.6%, opens new tab last year - was a drag on the economy in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, slightly faster than the 0.4% increase in the quarter ended December 31, a smaller poll sample showed. "Private investment could be a drag on the economy in the first quarter because a lot of businesses seem to have falling confidence," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank. Panichpibool said the main driver of first-quarter growth would still be exports, which had been expanding by double digits up until the past few months due to the rush to avoid tariffs. Private consumption would also continue to grow steadily. Thailand faces tariffs of 36% on its exports to the U.S. although the government said it has received a positive response from Washington for a possible trade deal. "Thailand is likely to reach a deal that aligns with a universal 10% tariff, similar to what competitors like Vietnam might agree to. This would limit the disadvantage to Thai exporters," said Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thai Bank. An April survey showed economists had lowered their 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.9% in a January survey. That was above the Bank of Thailand's 2.0% projection in April and the International Monetary Fund's more conservative 1.8% forecast in May. The central bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time last month to support the economy.
Business Recorder
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Most Asian currencies weaker
BENGALURU: Most Asian currencies weakened on Tuesday with Taiwan's dollar retreating from three-year highs after six straight days of gains, with markets speculating that Taipei might permit currency strengthening to gain leverage in US trade talks. The Taiwan dollar reversed early gains to trade 0.3% lower at 30.24 per dollar as of 0638 GMT. On Monday, the currency saw its largest single-day percentage gain since the 1980s, closing at 30.145, its strongest finish in over two years. 'The central bank has probably stepped in,' a Taiwan forex trader said, noting Tuesday morning's move. Taiwan's central bank dismissed rumours of US pressure for a stronger currency, attributing recent volatility to foreign inflows and market expectations. The moves occurred alongside US-Taiwan trade talks in Washington. The scale of the rally suggests a big unwinding as exporters and insurers reconsider long-held dollar positions built during years of trade surpluses. Thailand's baht strengthened 0.4% after inflation turned negative for the first time in more than a year in April. The central bank cut rates last week and Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat told Reuters they were ready to ease further if needed. The next policy meeting is on June 25. 'THB could face the same fate as TWD but impacts could be less severe as investors likely reduced unhedged offshore investments,' said Poon Panichpibool, Krung Thai Bank strategist. Philippine inflation also cooled, hitting a five-year low in April. The country releases first-quarter growth figures on Thursday, ahead of the June 19 policy meeting. The Malaysian ringgit fell as much as 1% to 4.238 per dollar. Malaysia's central bank is expected to maintain rates on Thursday with the trade minister stating that trade tensions would impact Malaysian exports more significantly than currency fluctuations. The Indonesian rupiah and the Singaporean dollar each slipped 0.2%. The dollar index held at 99.82 following a 0.7% two-day decline and a 4.3% drop in April as concerns mounted over Trump's tariff policies. The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Wednesday, likely holding rates steady. The MSCI emerging market currencies index advanced 1.75% in April and is poised for its fifth consecutive monthly gain in May. Dollar weakness is triggering behavior changes among Asian investors trying to hedge downside risk, said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP. Regional equities were mixed, with Malaysia and Thailand down 0.3% and 0.2%, while Jakarta and the Philippines rose 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
Business Recorder
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Asian currencies: Taiwan dollar leads monthly rally
BENGALURU: Thailand's currency was steady and its stocks extended gains after the central bank cut rates as expected on Wednesday, while the Taiwan dollar led monthly gains among Asian emerging currencies, relieved by a tariff pause in early April. The Thai baht held on to the 0.3% gain after the Bank of Thailand (BOT) cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. This was its second consecutive rate cut, aimed at boosting the economy through persisting uncertainties over US tariffs. The looming threat of 36% tariffs by the United States and a major earthquake last month have undermined business confidence in the Southeast Asian country. The earthquake affected the country's tourism outlook and it is expected to report fewer Chinese tourists this year, said Poon Panichpibool, a Bangkok-based markets strategist with Krung Thai Bank. The BOT was expected to maintain its easing bias as worries about headwinds from global trade and its potential hit to the Thai economy persisted, said Tim Waterer, a market analyst at KCM Trade. The rate cut gave the Thai stock market a fillip too, helping it rise as much as 1.2% after the policy announcement from 0.8% before. Elsewhere, the Taiwan dollar and South Korean won were on track to gain the most in April among their regional peers, on account of both the nation's trade-reliant economies getting a breather from Trump's tariffs due to the pause. 'The Taiwan dollar appeared to have been supported by exporter flows,' said Frances Cheung, head of FX and rates strategy at OCBC Bank. 'There might also have been some spill-over from increased hedging activities in the forwards onto spot. Both increases in exporter flows and hedging are partly due to a soft dollar view.' The Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit gained 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, in April while the Vietnamese dong and Indonesian rupiah slipped 1.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Equities in emerging Asia were upbeat, led by the Philippines, where the benchmark index jumped 1.6% to its highest since January. On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its BBB investment-grade rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the country's resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties. The peso was trading 0.4% higher on Wednesday. Stocks in Indonesia were set for their best month since August 2024, while shares in Thailand were on track for a monthly gain for the first time in five months.
Reuters
20-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
POLL Bearish bets further ease on Asian currencies as markets look past Trump tariffs
Summary Thai baht least shorted currency Bearish bets on Chinese yuan lowest since October, 2024 Short bets on rupee fall Feb 20 (Reuters) - Short positions on all Asian currencies were at multi-month lows on Thursday, as analysts shrugged off fears around the potential of an extended global trade war and factored in a boost in appetite towards risk-sensitive assets. Bearish stances on the Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar were at their lowest since October 31, 2024, while short positions on the South Korean won eased to their lowest since early October, a Reuters Poll of 13 respondents showed. Short positions were the least on the Thai baht , which has been one of the best-performing currencies in Southeast Asia and has added over 2% since the beginning of the year. Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank, attributed the positioning on the baht to a recent rally in gold prices but expressed caution around the currency due to uncertainty from the U.S. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting revealed that President Donald Trump's initial policy proposals raised concerns about rising inflation, further clouding the central bank's timeline for potential interest rate cuts. Markets are pricing in another 45.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed at its meeting in mid-July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major rivals, has fallen 2.6% since the beginning of the month, with the markets seeing Trump's tariff threats as a negotiating strategy rather than a definitive objective. Analysts have, for a while, been scaling back their short bets on Asian currencies after Trump's initial policies showed he would take a more measured step towards tariffs than was feared. "Whilst Trump tariffs still loom, it is unclear whether they would actually be enacted or remain negotiating tools," Maybank analysts said. Short bets eased on the Indian rupee but were still firmly in bear territory after the Reserve Bank of India announced its first rate cut in nearly five years earlier this month. The RBI had also intervened heavily to shore up the struggling currency earlier this month. The rupee has declined about 1.3% since the beginning of the year, reflecting a delay in Trump's tariff proposals actually being implemented. "Looking ahead, while domestic conditions have started to stabilise post-Budget and monetary policy announcements, concerns from overseas remain, contributing to ongoing volatility in the forex market," said Dilip Parmar at HDFC Securities. "The central bank has begun intervening more aggressively in response to the surge in forex market volatility, particularly due to Trump's tariff policies." Among other currencies, short positions on the Taiwan dollar and Philippine peso were at their lowest since mid-October. Bears trimmed their stance on the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah as well. The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars. The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency): DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB 20-Feb-25 0.88 0.83 0.31 1.06 0.59 1.22 0.37 0.31 0.02 06-Feb-25 1.15 1.01 0.86 1.25 1.14 1.98 0.62 0.93 0.23 23-Jan-25 1.33 1.04 1.11 1.50 1.01 1.78 1.01 0.77 0.54 09-Jan-25 1.65 1.75 1.34 1.20 1.18 1.69 0.99 0.65 0.76 12-Dec-24 1.15 1.86 0.83 0.87 0.82 1.43 0.65 0.53 0.26 28-Nov-24 1.32 1.45 1.12 1.03 1.10 1.13 0.76 1.13 0.66 14-Nov-24 1.14 1.61 0.80 0.81 1.07 0.87 0.65 1.18 0.90 31-Oct-24 0.30 1.06 -0.03 0.59 0.60 0.82 0.11 0.81 0.09 17-Oct-24 -0.43 0.26 -0.44 0.04 0.24 0.67 -0.40 0.26 -0.28 03-Oct-24 -1.14 -0.79 -1.26 -1.08 -0.59 -0.04 -1.18 -0.70 -1.45 19-Sep-24 -0.67 -0.90 -1.12 -1.18 -0.66 0.33 -1.30 -1.10 -1.33 05-Sep-24 -0.85 -1.09 -1.26 -1.05 -0.77 0.21 -1.46 -1.00 -1.22
