Latest news with #PrashantNewnaha
Business Recorder
4 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars ride risk recovery, rate cut priced in
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged higher on Wednesday as a truce in the Middle East seemed to be largely holding for the moment, outweighing a soft domestic inflation report that merely solidified wagers for a near-term rate cut. Australia's monthly consumer price index fell 0.4% in May from a month earlier, taking the annual pace to 2.1% and well under forecasts of 2.3%. The trimmed mean measure of core inflation slowed sharply to 2.4%, the lowest since late 2021 and under the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target range. Importantly, the cost of buying a home cooled markedly after an unexpected spike in April, while inflation in the service sector slowed to a three-year trough of 3.3%. The benign reading only reinforced investor expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its 3.85% cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting on July 8. Markets now imply a 90% chance of a cut in July, and see rates bottoming at 2.85% or 3.10% by early next year. 'We had been sceptical for the RBA to cut in July initially, but our stance has softened over the past month,' said Prashant Newnaha, a senior strategist at TD Securities. 'With the big downside miss in the CPI report, the RBA's likely comfort on most inflation metrics means we bring forward our prior Aug and Nov cuts, to July and Aug.' The Aussie was unfazed by the data, given a cut was already heavily priced in, and added 0.2% to $0.6502, having bounced 0.5% overnight to reach as far as $0.6519. Australia, NZ dollars back from the brink as risk recovers The recovery from Monday's deep low of $0.6373 has stabilised the technical position, but the recent top of $0.6552 remains distant. The kiwi dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6032, putting it far above Monday's trough of $0.5883. Resistance now lies at $0.6040 and the recent eight-month peak of $0.6088. Three-year Australian bond futures hit a two-month top of 96.760 on the inflation data, before running into profit taking. Yields on 10-year bonds were down at 4.1553, having come a long way from highs of 4.583% briefly touched in mid-May. 'Australia's weakening economic backdrop, combined with the RBA's dovish pivot, has improved the outlook for bonds,' said Skylar Koning, a strategist at Barclays. 'Moreover, yields across the curve appear attractively priced, especially given our baseline expectation that the RBA will cut rates to 2.85%.'
Mint
6 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Australia, NZ dollars ride risk recovery, rate cut priced in
SYDNEY, June 25 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged higher on Wednesday as a truce in the Middle East seemed to be largely holding for the moment, outweighing a soft domestic inflation report that merely solidified wagers for a near-term rate cut. Australia's monthly consumer price index fell 0.4% in May from a month earlier, taking the annual pace to 2.1% and well under forecasts of 2.3%. The trimmed mean measure of core inflation slowed sharply to 2.4%, the lowest since late 2021 and under the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target range. Importantly, the cost of buying a home cooled markedly after an unexpected spike in April, while inflation in the service sector slowed to a three-year trough of 3.3%. The benign reading only reinforced investor expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its 3.85% cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting on July 8. Markets now imply a 90% chance of a cut in July, and see rates bottoming at 2.85% or 3.10% by early next year. "We had been sceptical for the RBA to cut in July initially, but our stance has softened over the past month," said Prashant Newnaha, a senior strategist at TD Securities. "With the big downside miss in the CPI report, the RBA's likely comfort on most inflation metrics means we bring forward our prior Aug and Nov cuts, to July and Aug." The Aussie was unfazed by the data, given a cut was already heavily priced in, and added 0.2% to $0.6502, having bounced 0.5% overnight to reach as far as $0.6519. The recovery from Monday's deep low of $0.6373 has stabilised the technical position, but the recent top of $0.6552 remains distant. The kiwi dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6032, putting it far above Monday's trough of $0.5883. Resistance now lies at $0.6040 and the recent eight-month peak of $0.6088. Three-year Australian bond futures hit a two-month top of 96.760 on the inflation data, before running into profit taking. Yields on 10-year bonds were down at 4.1553, having come a long way from highs of 4.583% briefly touched in mid-May. "Australia's weakening economic backdrop, combined with the RBA's dovish pivot, has improved the outlook for bonds," said Skylar Koning, a strategist at Barclays. "Moreover, yields across the curve appear attractively priced, especially given our baseline expectation that the RBA will cut rates to 2.85%." (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
Observer
a day ago
- Business
- Observer
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rally, oil slumps as Iran-Israel ceasefire goes into effect
SYDNEY: Oil tumbled 4%, global shares surged and the dollar dropped on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was in place, a dramatic turnaround after the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend. Brent futures had already slid 7% on Monday and U.S. shares jumped after Iran made a token retaliation against a U.S. base and signalled it was done for now. With the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane seemingly over, the global benchmark was last at $67.68 a barrel, its lowest since June 11. U.S. crude futures dropped 3.6% to $66.02 a barrel. "With markets now viewing the escalation risk as over, market attention is likely to shift towards the looming tariff deadline in two weeks' time," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities. "Our sense is that the quicker than expected resolution to the Middle East conflict leads to expectations for a swifter resolution on tariffs and trade deals." But for now, equity markets were basking in the eased geopolitical tensions. Risk assets rallied, with S&P 500 futures up 1% and Nasdaq futures 1.3% higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 gained 1.3% in early trade, with travel stocks, such as airlines surging 4% while oil and gas names shed 3%. Earlier in the day MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 2.2% while Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.1%. On trade, two sources told Reuters that Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa was arranging his seventh visit to the United States for as early as June 26, aiming to end tariffs that are hurting Japan's economy. Government bonds largely looked through the news. The war has been a challenge for bond traders to process as they have had to weigh safe haven flows against the effect of higher oil prices on inflation. RATE CUTS APPROACHING? Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the time to cut interest rates was getting nearer as risks to the job market may be on the rise. That followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying on Friday he would consider a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have his own chance to comment when appearing before Congress later on Tuesday and, so far, has been more cautious about a near-term easing. Markets still only imply around a 22% chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30, but a September cut is near to fully priced. Ten-year Treasury yields were mostly steady at 4.33%, having declined 5 bps overnight. Germany's 10-year yield was flat at 3.52% News of the ceasefire saw the dollar extend an overnight retreat and slip 0.7% to 145.43 yen, having come off a six-week high of 148 yen overnight. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1602 on Tuesday, having gained 0.5% overnight. The yen and euro benefited from the slide in oil prices as both the EU and Japan rely heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas, while the United States is a net exporter. The risk-on mood saw gold prices ease 1% to $3,333 an ounce .
Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Shares rally, oil slumps as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire
SYDNEY: Global shares rallied and the dollar extended declines on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, sending oil prices into a deep dive as concerns over supply disruptions ebbed. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. There was no immediate comment yet from Israel. While an Iranian official earlier confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, the country's foreign minister said there would be no cessation of hostilities unless Israel stopped its attacks. Oil prices fell over 3%, having already slid 9% on Monday when Iran made a token retaliation against a U.S. base, which came to nothing and signalled it was done for now. With the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane seemingly over, U.S. crude futures fell another 3.4% to $66.15 per barrel, the lowest since June 11. 'With markets now viewing the escalation risk as over, market attention is likely to shift towards the looming tariff deadline in two weeks time,' said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities. 'Our sense is that the quicker than expected resolution to the Middle East conflict leads to expectations for a swifter resolution on tariffs and trade deals.' Risk assets rallied, with S&P 500 futures up 0.6% and Nasdaq futures 0.9% higher. EUROSTOXX 50 futures jumped 1.3% and FTSE futures rose 0.4%. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 1.8% while Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.4%. Two sources told Reuters that Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is arranging his seventh visit to the United States for as early as June 26, aiming to end tariffs that are hurting Japan's economy. China's blue chips rose 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.7%. News of the ceasefire saw the dollar extend an overnight retreat and slip 0.3% to 145.70 yen , having come off a six-week high of 148 yen overnight. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1594 on Tuesday, having gained 0.5% overnight. The yen and euro benefited from the slide in oil prices as both the EU and Japan rely heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas, while the United States is a net exporter. Stocks slide, oil and gold jump after Israel strikes Iran 'The market was so well hedged against a major tail-risk event to play out…the actions and the dialogue we've seen highlight that the tail risks have not and will highly unlikely materialise,' said Chris Weston, head of Research at Pepperstone. Ten-year Treasury yields were 2 basis points higher at 4.35%, having declined 5 bps overnight after Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the time to cut interest rates was getting nearer as risks to the job market may be on the rise. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have his own chance to comment when appearing before Congress later on Tuesday and, so far, has been more cautious about a near-term easing. Markets still only imply around a 22% chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30. The risk-on mood saw gold prices ease 0.6% to $3,346 an ounce.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks rise as US court ruling blocks Trump tariffs
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks were higher on Thursday as the US Court of International Trade ruled that the Trump administration did not have authority to impose most of the tariffs that have been announced. A three-judge panel argued that the US president has exceeded his authority, left US trade policy dependent on his whims and unleashed economic chaos. "The worldwide and retaliatory tariff orders exceed any authority granted to the president by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs," the court said. "…The court does not pass upon the wisdom or likely effectiveness of the president's use of tariffs as leverage. That use is impermissible not because it is unwise or ineffective, but because [federal law] does not allow it." It gave the administration 10 days in order to 'effectuate' the judgement, but a White House spokesperson told Reuters that it was 'not for elected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency'. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist, at TD Securities, said: "The knee-jerk reaction for equities to rally and bond yields to back up on the tariff pause makes sense. "However, with tariffs now in the appeal process and likely heading to the Supreme Court, uncertainty is back. Expect to see this lead to delays in investment and hiring. The pause also puts tariff revenue at risk which could bring deficit issues back on the radar." London's benchmark index (^FTSE) was 0.1% higher in early trade. Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) rose 0.7% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 1% into the green. The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was up 0.5%. Wall Street is set for a positive start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all in the green. The pound was flat against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3466. Follow along for live updates throughout the day: Stocks in Asia were higher overnight as the US Court of International Trade ruled that the Trump administration did not have the authority to impose most of the tariffs that have been announced. It said the administration had exceeded their legal authority, and that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) 'does not authorize the President to impose unbounded tariffs.' The court gave the administration 10 days in order to 'effectuate' the judgement — the ruling covers the 10% baseline tariffs, the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products, the extra 20% on China, as well as all the reciprocal tariffs that have been paused until 9 July. However, there are a few exceptions not covered by the ruling, including the tariffs on steel, aluminium and automobiles. The Nikkei (^N225) rose 1.9% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) gained 1.4% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.7% up by the end of the session. The Kospi (^KS11) was also up 1.9% after the Bank of Korea delivered a 25bp rate cut overnight, in line with expectations, taking the policy rate down to 2.5%. They also cut their growth forecast for this year to 0.8%. Across the pond on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 0.6%, falling back after the previous day's 2.05% surge, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.5% down. The Dow Jones (^DJI) fell 0.6%. Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets, and happening across the global economy. Coming up today we have US data releases which include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q1 GDP, and pending home sales for April. Otherwise, Central bank speakers include the Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler, Daly and Logan, along with BoE Governor Bailey. Here's a snaphot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: Nationwide, Helios Underwriting, Braemar, Hollywood Bowl, AutoTrader 9:30am: ONS estimates of inflation for different household types 1:30pm: Second reading of US GDP 1:30pm: US weekly jobless claimsStocks in Asia were higher overnight as the US Court of International Trade ruled that the Trump administration did not have the authority to impose most of the tariffs that have been announced. It said the administration had exceeded their legal authority, and that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) 'does not authorize the President to impose unbounded tariffs.' The court gave the administration 10 days in order to 'effectuate' the judgement — the ruling covers the 10% baseline tariffs, the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products, the extra 20% on China, as well as all the reciprocal tariffs that have been paused until 9 July. However, there are a few exceptions not covered by the ruling, including the tariffs on steel, aluminium and automobiles. The Nikkei (^N225) rose 1.9% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) gained 1.4% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.7% up by the end of the session. The Kospi (^KS11) was also up 1.9% after the Bank of Korea delivered a 25bp rate cut overnight, in line with expectations, taking the policy rate down to 2.5%. They also cut their growth forecast for this year to 0.8%. Across the pond on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 0.6%, falling back after the previous day's 2.05% surge, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.5% down. The Dow Jones (^DJI) fell 0.6%. Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets, and happening across the global economy. Coming up today we have US data releases which include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q1 GDP, and pending home sales for April. Otherwise, Central bank speakers include the Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler, Daly and Logan, along with BoE Governor Bailey. Here's a snaphot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: Nationwide, Helios Underwriting, Braemar, Hollywood Bowl, AutoTrader 9:30am: ONS estimates of inflation for different household types 1:30pm: Second reading of US GDP 1:30pm: US weekly jobless claims Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
