Latest news with #PriyaMisra
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Key for Fed Is Retaining Inflation-Fighting Credibility: Misra
JPMorgan Asset Management Core Plus Bond ETF Portfolio Manager Priya Misra believes if the Fed starts the process of cutting rates based on data, inflation forecasts and where the expectations are leading, they will retain their inflation-fighting credibility. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Straits Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Traders trim Fed rate cut bets after hike in US wholesale inflation
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox The odds of a September Fed rate cut fell to around 85 per cent from more than 100 per cent after the bigger-than-expected jump in on US wholesale prices. NEW YORK - Wall Street traders dialled back expectations for an interest rate cut in September, sending Treasury yields higher, after a bigger-than-expected jump in US wholesale prices signalled tariffs are pushing up inflation. Yields on short-term Treasuries, which tend to track expectations for monetary policy, rose sharply on Aug 14, with the two-year note's climbing six basis point to 3.73 per cent. The benchmark 10-year yield jumped and the US dollar gained against a basket of peers. The hike in the producer price index – which suggests companies are passing along elevated import costs tied to tariffs – halted a Treasuries rally and surprised investors. Traders had piled into bets on a September rate cut, with some wagering on a 50-basis-point move, after a largely benign report on consumer prices this week and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in which he said policymakers could bring down borrowing costs as much as 1.5 percentage points. 'Today's PPI makes you take a step back and just re-assess,' said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. 'We're in the midst of a stagflationary shock.' Interest-rate swaps still show at least half a percentage point of rate reductions by the end of the year, but the odds of a September cut fell to around 85 per cent from more than 100 per cent before the day's developments. Producer prices increased 0.9 per cent in July, the Aug 14 report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed, more than four times as much as the median economist forecast. Within the report, services costs increased 1.1 per cent. It followed a largely benign reading on consumer prices released on Aug 12. Fed officials, who last month left rates unchanged in a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent, have signalled they are weighing mixed signals from the economy ahead of their Sept 16-17 policy meeting. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Aug 14 it was too early to decide whether he will support a cut. Investors are now watching for clues from the Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later in August. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Mr Powell for failing to bring down borrowing costs. Mr Bessent on Aug 14 said that while he wasn't calling for the Fed to lower rates, economic models suggest there's room for rates to come down 150 basis points to a 'neutral' level at which policy is neither restraining nor stimulating the economy. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Traders trim Fed-cut bets as wholesale inflation clouds outlook
[NEW YORK] Wall Street traders dialled back expectations for an interest-rate cut next month, sending Treasury yields higher, after fresh data on wholesale prices signalled tariffs are pushing up inflation. Yields on short-term Treasuries, which tend to track expectations for monetary policy, rose sharply on Thursday (Aug 14), with the two-year note's climbing six basis points to 3.73 per cent. The benchmark 10-year yield jumped, and the US dollar gained against a basket of peers. The higher-than-expected increase in the producer price index (PPI), which suggests companies are passing along elevated import costs tied to tariffs, halted a Treasuries rally and surprised investors. Traders had piled into bets on a September rate cut, with some wagering on a 50-basis-point move, after a largely benign report on consumer prices this week and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in which he said policymakers could bring down borrowing costs as much as 1.5 percentage points. 'Today's PPI makes you take a step back and just re-assess,' said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. 'We are in the midst of a stagflationary shock.' Interest-rate swaps still show at least half a percentage point of rate reductions by the end of the year, but the odds of a September cut fell to around 85 per cent from more than 100 per cent before the day's developments. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Producer prices increased 0.9 per cent in July, Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed, more than four times as much as the median economist forecast. Within the report, services costs increased 1.1 per cent. It followed a largely benign reading on consumer prices released on Tuesday. Fed officials, who last month left rates unchanged in a range of 4.25 to 4.5 per cent, have signalled they are weighing mixed signals from the economy ahead of their Sep 16 to 17 policy meeting. St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said on Thursday it was too early to decide whether he will support a cut. Investors are now watching for clues from the Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later this month. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Powell for failing to bring down borrowing costs. Bessent on Thursday said that while he was not calling for the Fed to lower rates, economic models suggest there's room for rates to come down 150 basis points to a 'neutral' level at which policy is neither restraining nor stimulating the economy. For investors, Tuesday's consumer price reading was enough to solidify wagers on a quarter-price reduction in September, with some jumping into bets on an even bigger move of 50 basis points. Despite the reading on producer prices, they added to a position in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) on Thursday that would benefit from a move of more than 25 basis points. 'PPI is not going to change the overall narrative, but it does take off some of the 50-basis-point risk the marketplace had been thinking about,' said David Robin, an interest-rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services. BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Key for Fed is Retaining Inflation-Fighting Credibility: Misra
JPMorgan Asset Management Core Plus Bond ETF Portfolio Manager Priya Misra believes if the Fed starts the process of cutting rates based on data, inflation forecasts and where the expectations are leading, they will maintain their inflation-fighting credibility. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasuries Sink as Wholesale Inflation Dents Fed Rate-Cut Bets
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries slumped and traders pared bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month after US wholesale inflation jumped by the most in three years. The yield on two-year notes, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, rose seven basis points to nearly 3.75% Thursday afternoon in New York. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed six basis points, and the dollar gained against a basket of peers. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider Sunseeking Germans Face Swiss Backlash Over Alpine Holiday Congestion To Head Off Severe Storm Surges, Nova Scotia Invests in 'Living Shorelines' Five Years After Black Lives Matter, Brussels' Colonial Statues Remain For Homeless Cyclists, Bikes Bring an Escape From the Streets The bigger-than-expected increase in the producer price index — which suggests companies are passing along higher import costs related to tariffs — halted a rally in the Treasuries market. Traders who had been piling into wagers on a September rate cut of at least a quarter point and as much as half a point were forced to recalibrate. 'Today's PPI makes you take a step back and just re-assess,' Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television. 'We're in the midst of a stagflationary shock.' Interest-rate swaps still point to at least a half point of easing by the Fed over this year's three remaining policy meetings, but the contracts no longer fully price in a quarter-point cut next month, as they did on Wednesday. Producer prices increased 0.9% in July, Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed, more than four times as much as the median economist forecast. Within the report, services costs increased 1.1%. It followed a largely benign reading on consumer prices released Tuesday. Fed officials have been weighing mixed economic data ahead of their Sept. 16-17 meeting. Investors are now turning their focus to the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to speak. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for Powell to bring down borrowing costs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that economic models show rates could come down by around 150 basis points to reach the so-called neutral rate, at which they neither stimulate nor restrict growth. What Bloomberg strategists say... 'While yields are rising across the curve after a pickup in July PPI figures, the move appears to be led by mild profit taking after they declined earlier this week.' — Alyce Andres, Macro Strategist, Markets Live For the full analysis, click here. For investors, the consumer price reading was enough to solidify wagers on a quarter-price reduction, with some jumping into bets on an even bigger move. Despite the reading on producer prices, traders on Thursday added to a position in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) that would benefit from a move of more than 25 basis points. 'PPI is not going to change the overall narrative, but it does take off some of the 50-basis-point risk the marketplace had been thinking about,' said David Robin, an interest-rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said it's too early to decide whether to lower rates next month. Fed officials last month left their benchmark interest rate unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, where it's been since December. 'For me, it's too early to say exactly what policy I will be able to support' at the September meeting, Musalem said in an interview on CNBC. --With assistance from Michael Mackenzie and Edward Bolingbroke. (Adds comments, updates yield levels.) Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Dubai's Housing Boom Is Stoking Fears of Another Crash Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan Why It's Actually a Good Time to Buy a House, According to a Zillow Economist ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
