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Bangkok Post
3 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
A difference of opinion
When the moment of truth came -- that Thailand had been slapped with a 19% tariff by the US, down from the originally threatened 36% -- several implications for the government were spelt out by experts, both positive and cautionary. The fact that the government successfully negotiated the tariff rate down to 19% allows it to claim a diplomatic and economic victory. It positions the government as competent in international negotiations and responsive to economic threats, especially after an extended period of vulnerability from the Trump administration's tariffs, according to supporters. Public and business confidence in the government, particularly among exporters and investors, may temporarily improve. The government can exploit this as protecting national economic interests in a fragile post-pandemic and post-border conflict environment, experts said. Government supporters insisted the outcome of the negotiations has enhanced the stature of noted technocrats like Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira or government adviser Dr Prommin Lertsuridej as effective economic stewards, and shored up the beleaguered government's image. It has, in turn, helped stabilise an increasingly fragile coalition government under heavy scrutiny for lacking strong economic leadership or a long-term plan. Also, the concessions made to the US -- elimination of import duties on more than 10,000 American products -- may trigger criticism from domestic industries that now face heightened foreign competition. This includes agriculture and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) at risk of being undermined by cheaper US imports. Critics have framed the deal as capitulating to American pressure, portraying it as a win for Washington but a loss for Thailand's long-term competitiveness. The tariff issue also indicates a tilt towards the US at a time when Thailand must perform a careful diplomatic balancing act amid the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, where regional alliances are under scrutiny. Pro-Beijing elements, or nationalist factions, are questioning the wisdom of relying too heavily on Western markets, according to observers. The tariff deal still requires parliamentary approval, which means the legislative process could revive political tensions if the opposition exploits the deal to question the government's transparency or economic strategy. At the same time, intra-coalition differences could emerge over how the tariff concessions align with broader industrial and agricultural policies. The experts agreed that while the lower US tariff is a strategic, diplomatic and economic relief, it is not without political cost. The government must play its cards right and manage the domestic industrial fallout, sell the deal politically, and prepare for parliamentary scrutiny -- all while navigating geopolitical sensitivities in a shifting regional order. Meanwhile, former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij has warned of long-term risks from the US tariff, urging the government to invest more in sharpening the country's competitive edge. Mr Korn has issued a sobering analysis of the 19% import tariff, which directly impacts Thai exporters. While acknowledging that Thailand avoided harsh penalties with the 36% tariff, he noted the compromise came at a high price and that urgent domestic reforms are needed to prevent the country falling further behind in a hostile global trade environment. In a post titled "What Will 19% Mean?", published on his Facebook page, Mr Korn expressed some relief that Thailand secured a tariff rate comparable to other Asean countries, despite the diplomatic challenges that led up to the outcome. "The 19% came at the cost of Thai people's blood and sweat," Mr Korn wrote. "There had been no indication that Trump saw value in our proposals -- until he seized the opportunity to play the hero in ending the [Thai-Cambodian] standoff. That's why some have called the outcome a 'Peace Dividend'." Notably, Mr Korn pointed out that the US did not distinguish between Thailand and Cambodia in assigning tariff rates, despite Cambodia initially facing a 49% rate. Both now face the same 19%, showing Washington's strategic rather than moral calculus. While Thailand managed to hold its ground diplomatically, Mr Korn stressed that international perceptions remain a concern and that there is more work to be done in communicating Thailand's position to the global community. The former finance minister warned that Thai exporters will inevitably suffer lower profit margins under the new tariff structure. The added costs, compounded by the potential drop in American consumer demand due to rising prices, could dampen Thailand's export performance. He also highlighted the indirect consequences of the US tariffs on global trade dynamics. With China facing growing difficulty rerouting its exports via transshipments to evade tariffs, Thailand may see a surge of cheap Chinese goods flooding into its domestic market, posing an additional hardship for local manufacturers. Mr Korn applauded Mr Pichai for outlining the correct policy direction -- preparing relief measures through low-interest credit packages for affected businesses and pushing for long-term competitiveness enhancements. He also hammered home the importance of transparency, urging the government to disclose the terms of its negotiations with the US under Section 178 of the Constitution, which requires parliamentary oversight of international agreements. "Trump is the clearest winner," Mr Korn concluded. "He has succeeded in extracting US$300–500 billion annually in tariffs from global trade partners. The message is clear: in this era, friendship is irrelevant -- only mutual interests matter." Mr Korn closed his analysis with a warning: Thailand must not rely on diplomatic luck or external protection. The only sustainable path forward is internal development, reform, and innovation. "If we don't adapt," he warned, "we'll only become more disadvantaged." Waiting in the wings? With tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border showing no sign of easing and the prospect of a general election looming, observers now see the possible rise of a new political force. They envisage a fresh conservative party capable of tackling political, economic and security problems while putting forward a prime ministerial candidate who can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with those from existing political parties. Such a candidate need not be a career politician, but must possess an unblemished record, free of any links to Cambodia's leadership. And with many in the conservative camp increasingly dissatisfied with existing conservative parties, speculation is rife that any new party aligning itself with the armed forces could have an advantage at the polls. Stithorn Thananithichot, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, said a great deal of public support is directed towards the armed forces for its handling of the border conflict with Cambodia. And while such a party and candidate have yet to step up, existing political parties are likely to court the military and position themselves as its allies to capitalise on public sentiment as they prepare for the polls, he noted. While Bhumjaithai appears to be the most trusted option for conservative voters -- as opposed to the ruling Pheu Thai Party -- the party, as well as the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) and the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), have fallen short of expectations despite having been in the government for the past two years, he said. He said Bhumjaithai has seen a slight increase in popularity after withdrawing from the coalition government, which suggests that there are still millions of conservative voters up for grabs if the right strategy is in place. "When they see this significant voter base, all conservative parties will scramble for a strong prime ministerial candidate and economic policy, as well as a military reform plan that the public actually wants. But so far, no one has emerged," the analyst said. However, he said that outgoing central bank governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput appears to fit the bill. He is widely considered capable, committed to national interests, and did not bow to political pressure to safeguard the central bank's independence and maintain the country's international fiscal credibility. "Even if he is politically inexperienced, I don't think that voters will look at it as a problem. They're all too familiar with smooth-talking politicians with vested interests. The only question is whether Mr Sethaput has any interest in politics," he said. Mr Sethaput's five-year term at the central bank ends on Sept 30, and he will be succeeded by Vitai Ratanakorn, currently president and CEO of the state-owned Government Savings Bank (GSB). Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said a new conservative party will need figures like Mr Sethaput or former central bank governor Veerathai Santiprabhob to win over voters. Both have earned a lot of trust from technocrats and have shown that they have had no vested interests while in the jobs they occupied. This is in stark contrast to some towering figures who pull strings in politics, he said. However, he said if conservative voters feel deeply attached to the military, the chief of the defence forces, Gen Songwit Noonpakdee, who is scheduled to retire at the end of September, could be among their top choices for prime minister. Gen Songwit is regarded as a forward-thinking individual, as illustrated in his handling of Thai-Cambodian tensions, he said. "He's the first and only supreme commander to unify all branches of the armed forces under a strategic plan. In the past, each branch operated separately," he said. Whether the general harbours any political ambitions will only become clear after his retirement, he said. As for the Bhumjaithai Party, which is the most popular among the existing conservative parties, it still has much work to do if it wants to secure substantial support, according to Mr Thanaporn. First and foremost, it will have to come up with a military reform proposal to streamline the armed forces to make them lean, yet effective. However, Bhumjaithai will be competing with the People's Party (PP), which is reportedly devising its own ambitious reform platform, he said. According to the analyst, the PP's military reform plan is said to include trimming excess military spending and restructuring the armed forces to address not only the Cambodian border situation but also other potential flashpoints.
Straits Times
15-07-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Hong Kong leader backs same-sex couples' rights Bill
Find out what's new on ST website and app. LGBTQ activists say the Bill fails to satisfy the court's framework requirements. Hong Kong - Hong Kong leader John Lee threw his weight behind a bill recognising limited rights for same-sex couples on July 15, despite fears that opposition from pro-Beijing parties could sink it. Mr Lee's administration proposed legislation in July to recognise some rights for same-sex partners whose marriages are registered abroad. Despite LGBTQ activists arguing it does not go far enough, the proposal drew near-universal criticism from the pro-Beijing politicians that dominate Hong Kong's legislature. The clash pitted Mr Lee against conservative lawmakers from his own camp and led some to fear the proposal might be pulled. The city's top court ordered Hong Kong's government to create an 'alternative framework' for LGBTQ couples when it quashed a bid to recognise same-sex marriage in 2023. Mr Lee said on July 15 the government 'must not act in violation' of the Court of Final Appeal's judgement. 'Otherwise, it will be against the rule of law... Violating the rule of law will mean serious consequences,' he told reporters. The government will respect the legislature's final decision, he added. In 2023, the court unanimously defined marriage as 'confined to opposite-sex couples' – a stance Mr Lee reiterated on July 15. LGBTQ activists say the Bill – which only covers 'rights related to medical matters' and 'right to handle after-death arrangements' – fails to satisfy the court's framework requirements. China is not among the countries around the world that have legalised marriage equality since the Netherlands became the first to do so in 2001. Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China with its own legislature and a mini-constitution that guarantees a 'high degree of autonomy'. Pro-Beijing firebrand lawmaker Junius Ho earlier floated the idea of asking Beijing's top legislature to overrule Hong Kong's apex court to 'protect traditional family values'. Support for same-sex marriage in Hong Kong has grown over the past decade and hit 60 per cent, according to a 2023 survey. AFP
France 24
02-07-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Hong Kong govt proposes limited recognition of same-sex couples' rights
The city's top judges had unanimously defined marriage as "confined to opposite-sex couples" in September 2023. But the same ruling also ordered the government to create an "alternative framework" within two years that recognises same-sex couples' legal rights. In a policy paper published on Wednesday, the Hong Kong government wrote that it "recommends legislation to allow same-sex couples to apply for registration under a newly established registration mechanism". The proposal is limited to healthcare-related rights -- such as hospital visits, making medical decisions, sharing medical information and organ donation -- and rights related to a deceased person's body. To be eligible, adult couples must have been lawfully married abroad, with at least one person a Hong Kong resident. "There are different views in society regarding the legal recognition of same-sex couples' relationships," the government added. "We must make careful deliberations and... strike a balance, to avoid causing social rifts and affecting social harmony." The 2023 top court ruling was in response to a legal challenge by LGBTQ activist Jimmy Sham, who recently completed his prison sentence over an unrelated national security offence. Sham said limiting eligibility to same-sex couples with overseas-registered marriages would create financial and practical hurdles. It "seems not to comply with the principle of equality, and I am doubtful if it complies with the court's ruling", he told AFP. Sham said he did not understand how the government narrowed down to two categories of rights and argued for including more, such as those related to insurance policies and private property that he said would not cost taxpayer dollars. "I hope there will be public hearings in the legislature to accommodate different voices, to show that Hong Kong is actually very diverse," he added. 'Inherently unfair' Jerome Yau, co-founder of the advocacy group Hong Kong Marriage Equality, said the eligibility restrictions were "inherently unfair and could lead to further litigation". Yau said his group previously submitted views to the government but he was not aware of any public consultation on the issue. Lawmakers will discuss the issue on Thursday, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang told journalists, according to local newspaper Ming Pao. He declined to specify a target date for passing the bill. Hong Kong reformed its legislature in 2021 so that only those loyal to Beijing can hold office, ousting pro-democracy lawmakers en masse. Members of the pro-Beijing camp have spoken out against legal recognition of same-sex couples' rights, insisting that Hong Kong society only tolerates marriage between a man and a woman. Pro-Beijing lawmaker Priscilla Leung wrote on Facebook on Wednesday that the proposal will "open a Pandora's box and cause endless disputes in society". But support for same-sex marriage in Hong Kong has grown over the past decade and hit 60 percent in 2023, according to a survey conducted jointly by three universities. Last year, LGBTQ rights activists notched another legal victory with the top court affirming housing and inheritance rights for same-sex couples. Wednesday's policy document does not mention rights related to housing, inheritance or taxes. More than 30 countries around the world have legalised marriage equality since the Netherlands became the first to do so in 2001. China is not among them, nor does it have specific laws prohibiting discrimination against LGBTQ people. © 2025 AFP
Int'l Business Times
02-07-2025
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
Hong Kong Govt Proposes Limited Recognition Of Same-sex Couples' Rights
The Hong Kong government said Wednesday it will propose legislation to recognise a limited set of rights for same-sex couples whose marriages are registered abroad, as it seeks to comply with a landmark court ruling. The city's top judges had unanimously defined marriage as "confined to opposite-sex couples" in September 2023. But the same ruling also ordered the government to create an "alternative framework" within two years that recognises same-sex couples' legal rights. In a policy paper published on Wednesday, the Hong Kong government wrote that it "recommends legislation to allow same-sex couples to apply for registration under a newly established registration mechanism". The proposal is limited to healthcare-related rights -- such as hospital visits, making medical decisions, sharing medical information and organ donation -- and rights related to a deceased person's body. To be eligible, adult couples must have been lawfully married abroad, with at least one person a Hong Kong resident. "There are different views in society regarding the legal recognition of same-sex couples' relationships," the government added. "We must make careful deliberations and... strike a balance, to avoid causing social rifts and affecting social harmony." The 2023 top court ruling was in response to a legal challenge by LGBTQ activist Jimmy Sham, who recently completed his prison sentence over an unrelated national security offence. Sham said limiting eligibility to same-sex couples with overseas-registered marriages would create financial and practical hurdles. It "seems not to comply with the principle of equality, and I am doubtful if it complies with the court's ruling", he told AFP. Sham said he did not understand how the government narrowed down to two categories of rights and argued for including more, such as those related to insurance policies and private property that he said would not cost taxpayer dollars. "I hope there will be public hearings in the legislature to accommodate different voices, to show that Hong Kong is actually very diverse," he added. Jerome Yau, co-founder of the advocacy group Hong Kong Marriage Equality, said the eligibility restrictions were "inherently unfair and could lead to further litigation". Yau said his group previously submitted views to the government but he was not aware of any public consultation on the issue. Lawmakers will discuss the issue on Thursday, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang told journalists, according to local newspaper Ming Pao. He declined to specify a target date for passing the bill. Hong Kong reformed its legislature in 2021 so that only those loyal to Beijing can hold office, ousting pro-democracy lawmakers en masse. Members of the pro-Beijing camp have spoken out against legal recognition of same-sex couples' rights, insisting that Hong Kong society only tolerates marriage between a man and a woman. Pro-Beijing lawmaker Priscilla Leung wrote on Facebook on Wednesday that the proposal will "open a Pandora's box and cause endless disputes in society". But support for same-sex marriage in Hong Kong has grown over the past decade and hit 60 percent in 2023, according to a survey conducted jointly by three universities. Last year, LGBTQ rights activists notched another legal victory with the top court affirming housing and inheritance rights for same-sex couples. Wednesday's policy document does not mention rights related to housing, inheritance or taxes. More than 30 countries around the world have legalised marriage equality since the Netherlands became the first to do so in 2001. China is not among them, nor does it have specific laws prohibiting discrimination against LGBTQ people.
The Star
01-07-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Hong Kong rights record under scrutiny as it marks China handover anniversary
Pro-Beijing supporters hold Chinese and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region flags to mark the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to Chinese rule in Hong Kong, Tuesday, July 1, 2025. - AP HONG KONG: Hong Kong leader John Lee said on Tuesday (July 1) the city has become safer and more competitive as it marks its 28th year under Chinese rule, although critics including the EU decried the use of a "repressive" security law. The former British colony was handed over to China in 1997 under a "One Country, Two Systems" governance model, which guaranteed key freedoms and a high degree of autonomy not enjoyed on the mainland. July 1 in Hong Kong had been marked in previous years by demonstrations but authorities have cracked down on dissent after huge and sometimes violent pro-democracy protests in 2019. Lee said "high-level security to safeguard high-quality development" was a top priority for his administration, noting the need to integrate into China's economic blueprint. The city this week also marked the fifth anniversary of Beijing's imposition of a sweeping national security law, under which 76 people have been convicted so far, imposed after the 2019 protests. Lee's government enacted a separate security law of its own in 2024 that authorities say is needed to restore order. "We have rebuilt a safe Hong Kong," Lee said in a speech. However, the European Union said on Monday "the repressive use of the National Security Law has undermined confidence in the rule of law and Hong Kong's international reputation". "The European Union regrets that additional national security legislation... introduced new offences, increased penalties and further empowered security authorities," it said in a statement. The League of Social Democrats, one of Hong Kong's last remaining opposition parties, disbanded on Sunday citing "immense political pressure" and concern for the safety of its members. It was the second pro-democracy party to announce plans to wind down this year, following the Democratic Party in February. Authorities say that Hong Kong residents continue to enjoy rights and freedoms guaranteed under its Basic Law constitution, although such rights are not absolute. - AFP
