Latest news with #Probo
News18
4 days ago
- Business
- News18
The Smart Economy: Opinion Trading and Indias New Skill Wave
New Delhi [India], August 14 (ANI): I discovered opinion trading when a friend sent me a link to a cricket market. What began as a passing curiosity quickly became a passion. I found myself delving deep into the nuances of the game, learning to interpret match dynamics and time my decisions precisely. Over time, opinion trading became my favourite way to challenge my sports knowledge and stay deeply connected to the action on the field. This journey has shown me how skill, analysis, and engagement can transform a casual interest into a rewarding pursuit rooted in strategy and real-world personal experience reflects a larger trend shaping India's digital landscape. The country's rise as a digital powerhouse is driven by transformative platforms and industries that understand the potential of its vast, young, and tech-savvy population. Among these, opinion trading stands out as a particularly potent force. It not only mirrors India's passion for innovation but also exemplifies its evolution toward a knowledge-led, skill-based economy. What makes this phenomenon especially noteworthy is how it unites data, reasoning, and real-world awareness into a truly participatory economic movement. A Participatory Marketplace for the Digital Age In just a few short years, opinion trading has evolved from a novel concept to a major pillar of India's digital economy. Unlike formats that passively engage users, opinion trading requires participants to analyze real-time information, such as live sporting events, and articulate their conclusions through structured, transparent markets. Leading platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio typify this transformation, inviting users to leverage their expertise and analytical prowess within a regulated framework that favours consistency, insight, and informed segment now commands the attention of more than 50 million Indians, with annual transaction values crossing $6 billion and an infusion of over $500 million in industry investment as of 2025. Such momentum has translated into rapid job creation, technological advancement, and direct fiscal benefits for the Indian state, a trajectory that is only expected to accelerate in the coming years. Skill: The Foundation of Sustainable Growth The true genius of opinion trading lies in its clear distinction from forms of entertainment that hinge on unpredictability. Here, mathematical models, empirical data, and independent research confirm that success is rooted in discernment, critical thinking, and the ability to process and act on ever-evolving streams of information. Seasoned participants display consistent, superior outcomes over time, an outcome explainable only by the accumulation and application of anti-fraud systems, real-time analytics, and thoughtfully curated event markets help sustain the integrity of this structure, ensuring that platforms reward learning, adaptation, and rational decision-making. The best performers are not those who make random choices, but those who demonstrate systematic information analysis and rapidly iterate on feedback, a remarkable alignment with the demands of the 'insight economy." This evolution is underscored by rigorous studies and data from India's leading platforms and independent academic individual achievement, opinion trading is rapidly becoming a testbed for broader financial technologies and digital payment adoption. Every trade on these platforms reinforces trust in UPI and wallet-based payments, a critical leap toward a cashless, seamless economy. The sector's flourishing also fuels the development of cutting-edge AI, data analytics, and risk management systems, introducing Indian engineers and technologists to frontier challenges in automation and computational decision sciences. A Tax and Employment Windfall for the State The economic value generated by opinion trading extends to the public coffers as well. With a flat 30% tax deduction at the source on net winnings, the industry expands the nation's formal tax base, particularly bringing in younger, digitally native users who might not otherwise intersect with traditional tax nets. Platform revenues, already above $120 million annually, are only a part of the story; the state stands to gain from both direct and ancillary taxes as the ecosystem is another significant dividend. The industry has already created more than 10,000 jobs, with robust projections indicating that over 100,000 new roles could emerge in the near future. These opportunities range from product development and risk management to data science, compliance, and customer support, offering a meaningful boost to India's innovation economy. Societal Ripples: Building Decentralized, Data-Literate Networks Perhaps the most transformative benefit of opinion trading is its capacity to create giant, decentralized knowledge networks. As millions of Indians engage with real-time questions, especially within the sports industry, they collectively generate a crowdsourced intelligence layer that businesses and academics can learn from. This democratization of decision science not only fosters individual growth but also provides invaluable insights into public sentiment, societal trends, and emerging opportunities. Global Outlook and the Path Forward With solid foundations in skill, transparency, and technological sophistication, India is now positioned to lead the world in regulated, participatory prediction markets. Ongoing research and detailed technical analyses, such as those presented in 'The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading" and 'Quantifying Skill in Opinion Trading Platforms, provide clarity and rigor, establishing frameworks for responsible regulation and continued innovation. These studies highlight India's ability to adapt global best practices to its unique context, ensuring continued user protection and market integrity. Charting India's Next Digital Chapter Far from being a fleeting trend, opinion trading is redefining how India understands and interacts with its digital economy. It is ushering in an era where reasoning is rewarded, knowledge is monetized, and the collective intelligence of the nation finds a new marketplace. The journey ahead, anchored by user-centric regulation and relentless innovation, could see India become the global capital of skill-based, insight-driven digital a society and an economy, India thrives when it welcomes new forms of engagement, learning, and economic inclusion. Opinion trading, at the intersection of skill, technology, and public participation, is a resounding affirmation of that spirit, one that promises dividends not just for users and platforms, but for the nation as a whole. (ANI)Disclaimer:: Ankush Kumar is a Part-Time educator and small business owner, running a general store while teaching 11th and 12th grade accounting. He is committed to equipping students with essential financial skills and fostering practical entrepreneurship within the community. The views expressed in this article are his own.
News18
4 days ago
- Business
- News18
July trade data to be released later today, positive momentum likely to continue
New Delhi [India], August 14 (ANI): India's export data for July 2025 is due later in the day. The figures are expected to show no major deviations, with business activity remaining steady through the month. In the best-case scenario, analysts note the trade figures may surprise on the positive side. Reports had suggested that some American businesses had front loaded imports from India, eyeing to stack-up before the tariffs are President Donald Trump announced the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods plus an unspecified penalty for importing Russian oil, even as there were hopes of an interim India-US trade deal that would have otherwise helped avoid elevated tariffs. A few days later, he topped it up with another 25 per cent as penalty, taking the total to 50 per cent, to be effective from August data suggests that overall exports, merchandise and services combined, rose to USD 67.98 billion in June 2025, compared to USD 63.83 billion in the same month last year, which was a jump of nearly 6.5 per imports also had a marginal rise, reaching USD 71.50 billion in June 2025 compared to USD 71.14 billion in June 2024, indicating stable domestic demand amid softening global commodity overall trade deficit narrowed significantly to USD 3.51 billion in June 2025, down from USD 7.30 billion in June 2024, as exports outpaced imports on a year-on-year improved trade balance in June was seen as a positive sign for India's current account position and broader economic merchandise exports clocked in at USD 35.14 billion in June 2025. Adding a fresh market dimension, users on Probo, the country's biggest opinion trading platform placed an 80% probability at approximately 11:30 a.m. on August 14 that July's merchandise exports would reach USD 36 billion or more – exceeding the June production linked incentive (PLI) scheme of the government has helped India's export growth and make Indian manufacturers globally competitive, attract investments, enhance exports, integrate India into the global supply chain and reduce dependency on government has set a target of USD 1 trillion of exports in the current financial year the last fiscal India's total exports have touched an all-time high of USD 824.9 billion. This was a growth of 6.01 per cent over USD 778.1 billion of exports in 2023-24, which was a new milestone for India's FY 2024-25 exports had exceeded government's initial anticipation of USD 800 billion to USD 824.9 billion. (ANI)
Mint
30-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Momentum builds in prediction markets as strategic deals broaden trading scope
New Delhi [India], July 30 (ANI): In 2025, prediction markets are gaining momentum in the United States, driven by strategic partnerships, regulatory clarity, and significant fundraising rounds led by some of Silicon Valley's most prominent investors. Recently, prediction market platforms have entered into partnerships with both legacy and social media outlets. Within just two months--June and July--America's two leading prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, announced strategic collaborations with Elon Musk's X platform, a move expected to provide these platforms with enhanced distribution. xAI confirmed its partnership with Kalshi through a post on July 24, stating, "Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets." The post further added, "Two of the fastest growing companies in America are now on the same team." On the regulatory front, the tide appears to be turning in the United States. Polymarket, backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, is now open to American traders following its strategic acquisition of a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, QCEX, for USD 112 million. Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, posted on July 21 about the acquisition, saying, "Owning a DCM [Designated Contract Maker] and DCO [Derivative Clearing House] will let us serve all American traders and brokerages." Coplan added, "This acquisition isn't just about a license; its Polymarket's homecoming returning stronger and ready to serve American users once again." Closer to Asia, India has a vibrant prediction market industry, also referred to as opinion trading. Despite regulatory ambiguity, Probo, the country's largest opinion trading platform with over 50 million registered users, enables trading across a wide range of event contracts. "Beyond cricket, we are seeing increasing user traction in categories including economy, world sports and news. Every user trades in two categories on an average," said a Probo spokesperson. Like its global counterparts, Probo has raised capital from a notable lineup of investors, including Peak XV Partners (formerly Sequoia Capital India), Fundamentum Partnerships, and Elevation Capital, highlighting the significant growth potential of prediction markets in India. Commenting on the Indian market and regulatory landscape, Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner at Evam Law & Policy, said, "Opinion trading is gaining remarkable traction in India, with homegrown platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio at the forefront. This sector is projected to drive 30-35% of both direct and indirect job creation while contributing significantly to economic growth. With progressive regulation, we anticipate this job creation potential to multiply exponentially as the market matures. This segment currently employs over 10,000 individuals directly and indirectly." (ANI)
India Gazette
15-07-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
Impact of geopolitical issues like Israel-Iran conflict will be reflected in June trade data
New Delhi [India], July 15 (ANI): India's export data for the month of June 2025 will be released later in the day. Amid Iran-Israel hostilities that ended in a ceasefire, uncertainties on US tariffs and a relative spike in global crude prices are likely to have an impact on June trade data. In May 2025, India's overall exports, merchandise and services combined, were reported at USD 71.12 billion, marking a 2.77 per cent rise on a yearly basis. The total exports in May 2024 were pegged at USD 69.20 billion. Exports of merchandise goods declined from USD 39.59 billion to USD 38.73 billion, but services exports rose from USD 29.61 billion to USD 32.39 billion in May 2025. However, India imported goods and services worth USD 77.75 billion in May 2025, down from USD 78.55 billion in the same month last year. The trade deficit in May narrowed to USD 6.62 billion from USD 9.35 billion same month last year. So far in FY2025-26, April-May, India's total exports stood at around USD 142.43 billion, up 5.75 per cent year-on-year. The country's imports also increased year-on-year in April-May, up by 6.52 per cent. Overall imports, both merchandise and services combined, during April-May increased from USD 149.81 billion to USD 157.57 billion. India's merchandise imports stood at USD 60.61 billion in May 2025, according to official data. As of approximately 8:45 am on July 15, a Probo event contract tracking June's merchandise imports figures--featuring over 2,300 active traders--assigns a 40 per cent probability that merchandise imports for June 2025 will be USD 60 billion or more. India's total exports have touched an all-time high of USD 824.9 billion in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25. This marks a yearly growth of 6.01 per cent over USD 778.1 billion exports in 2023-24, setting a new annual milestone. Among various steps the government took to increase exports include the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in 14 sectors, including electronic goods, telecom, EVs battery to name a few. The PLI scheme was launched to make Indian manufacturers globally competitive, attract investments, enhance exports, integrate India into the global supply chain and reduce dependency on imports. These seemed to have reaped dividends for rising exports. The government has set a target of USD 1 trillion of exports in the current financial year 2025-26. The government is signing free trade agreements (FTA) with various countries to boost exports. The most recent FTA was signed with the United Kingdom and the UAE. Speaking at the CII Summit on Monday, Commerce and Industry Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that government's priority is enabling global capability centres (GCC), and FTAs will play a major role in that. 'Manufacturing comparative advantage is no longer the benchmark for trade among nations. With the service sector expanding its niche and GCC's becoming a hub for providing services to manufacturing companies, FTAs have become a very critical enabler of the GCC ecosystem'. Reiterating the importance of FTAs, Barthwal noted that the 'India-UK' FTA has a special chapter on Innovation, thereby strengthening innovation corridors between partner countries. He further added that FTAs ensure regulatory practices and institutional mechanisms between two sets of partners that can be harmonized and sustained. (ANI)
Mint
10-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Illegal betting case: ED cracks down on gaming platform Probo, freezes assets worth ₹284 crore
The Enforcement Directorate on Wednesday said it has frozen fixed deposits and shares worth more than ₹ 284 crore belonging to a Haryana-based company, as part of a money laundering investigation linked to illegal online betting. The action was taken under the criminal sections of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) after the agency conducted searches for two days starting Tuesday at four premises in Gurugram and Jind in Haryana, belonging to the firm Probo Media Technologies Pvt. Ltd. and its promoters Sachin Subhaschandra Gupta and Ashish Garg, news agency PTI reported. The case pertains to alleged illegal online gambling, where complainants told police that they were "cheated" and "dishonestly" presented with a scheme of earning money through simple "yes or no" questions, while in reality, the scheme promotes "gambling" by luring players to invest more in the hope of earning higher returns. The investigation found that the app/website "defrauds" users by first presenting a misleading image of a genuine skill-based platform, but ultimately "exploits" them through a betting system where winning depends entirely on chance, not on the user's knowledge or abilities. According to the agency, the company described its platform as 'opinion trading', claiming that the game required knowledge and skill to play. "However, analysis of games shows that all the games can be answered with a 'Yes or No' and hence, there are only two possible outcomes, which makes it indistinguishable from gambling/betting, resulting in loss of hard-earned money of the users," the probe agency told PTI. The agency alleged that the app/website lacks any system to stop minors from signing up as users, does not carry out proper due diligence (KYC), and attracts new users with "misleading" advertisements while promoting opinion trading linked to election results. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) said the company had received ₹ 134.84 crore from foreign entities based in Mauritius, the Cayman Islands, and other locations, against the issue of 'preference shares'. "The searches resulted in seizure of incriminating documents and digital data. Investment in FDs and shares amounting to ₹ 284.5 crore and three bank lockers have been frozen during the searches," it added. 'Cooperating' in money laundering probe Online platform Probo on Thursday said it was "cooperating" with the Enforcement Directorate (ED). "In light of recent developments, we would like to assure all stakeholders and the public that Probo is cooperating with law enforcement authorities in the ongoing inquiries." "As pioneers of a nascent-yet-transformative technology in India's digital landscape, we remain confident that our commitment to compliance and innovation will help us emerge stronger through this process," a Probo spokesperson said in a statement to PTI.
