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Hindustan Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Beyond Likes & Shares: How Probo is Turning Opinions Into Valuable Predictions
In the rapidly evolving era of interactive social media, where virality can distort notions of truth and platforms are often driven by engagement over accuracy, a quiet revolution is unfolding in India. Opinion trading has begun to emerge as a powerful new tool in participatory technology, combining gamification, financial literacy, and civic engagement into a single, user-centric format. Rather than merely being a game of chance, recent research from IIT-Delhi and Evam Law & Policy affirms that opinion trading predominantly requires skill. Users are rewarded not for gut instincts, but for sharp judgment, real-time analysis, and their ability to stay informed. This, combined with the community-driven nature of these platforms, makes opinion trading a compelling case for being recognized as civic tech innovation. Gamification Meets Civic Participation Platforms like Probo are bringing in a new age of engagement, where users don't passively consume the news but participate in it. By predicting the outcomes of real-world events, from sports to the economic landscape, users interact with current affairs in a gamified environment, rewarding accuracy. Unlike social media, which amplifies virality, these platforms incentivize truth. Misinformation is naturally penalized, and incorrect predictions result in financial loss, creating a built-in deterrent against unverified speculation. This structure turns opinion trading into a 'truth market,' where civic participation is not only encouraged but also rewarded. It's no longer about likes or shares; it's about understanding, analyzing and predicting the real-world affairs based on knowledge. Skill vs. Speculation: A Question Answered Critics of opinion trading often conflate it with gambling, overlooking one key distinction: opinion trading is a peer-to-peer market, not a player-versus-house setup. There's no inherent conflict of interest, and no manipulation of outcomes by the platform. Users compete based on their ability to synthesize news, trends, and data, much like fantasy sports, rummy, or even day trading. Research from IIT-Delhi tracked user behavior over time and found that those who remained engaged and informed consistently outperformed others. These weren't lucky guesses. They were informed predictions backed by data consumption and strategic decision-making. The Evam study backed this up with evidence that active users employing strategies like early exits achieved up to a 70% win rate, compared to 42% for passive players. Voluntary Self-Regulation and Consumer Safety Leading platforms like Probo have proactively adopted safety features and guardrails. These include cool-off periods, limits on recharge amounts, prohibitions on credit-based trading, and transparent product design—all intended to promote responsible participation. Moreover, the very structure of opinion trading encourages moderation. Without credit or 'house' incentives, users have limited exposure, and the system naturally filters out unsustainable trading behavior. A Civic-Tech Innovation Waiting to Be Recognized Opinion trading platforms don't just reflect public sentiment—they shape it. As crowds aggregate and assess probabilities, they collectively produce insights that could aid researchers, policymakers, and even journalists. During the pandemic, such platforms often reflected real-time sentiment on vaccine approvals, lockdown extensions, and recovery timelines, frequently ahead of mainstream media. Given the demonstrated civic value and potential for public forecasting, India has an opportunity to lead the world in regulating and nurturing this emerging sector. In the U.S. and U.K., prediction markets are already used to anticipate election outcomes and policy shifts. For India, clear regulation could unlock economic potential, tax revenue, and democratic data tools, while ensuring user protection and platform accountability. Conclusion Opinion trading isn't a digital gamble. It's a modern arena where skill, awareness, and community-driven data converge. As platforms continue to innovate and self-regulate, and as academic research validates their utility, the question is no longer if opinion trading should be recognized as a civic-tech innovation, but how soon. Disclaimer: This article is sponsored content curated by HT Syndication. The inputs and details accounted for in the article do not necessarily reflect those of HT, and HT does not endorse or assume any responsibility for the information provided. Want to get your story featured as above? click here! First Published Date: 03 Jun, 16:34 IST
New Indian Express
30-05-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
Tamil Nadu cracks down on opinion trading apps
CHENNAI: About four weeks after the Tamil Nadu Online Gaming Authority (TNOGA) sent show cause notices to 15 firms running opinion trading apps, a few of them have stopped offering their services in Tamil Nadu, while others are expected to soon follow suit, official sources said. Opinion trading application, better known as prediction markets, is a relatively new concept to India in which users are allowed to place bets on the outcomes of future events, not restricted to sport alone. According to a senior official, these opinion trading applications, although operate on similar lines as any other betting applications, they use the terminology of 'shares' for the payout instead of money. For instance, from a sporting perspective, users can bet on whether a particular IPL team would win or not and buy 100 shares worth Rs 5 each. Similarly, users could also bet on political developments like whether a politician will get a particular post or win an election. If their prediction comes true, the value of the 'shares' they purchased goes up, which can in turn be monetised. 'Though it is marketed as a game of skill, it is a game of chance and an outright form of gambling according to me,' a senior Tamil Nadu government official, who requested anonymity, said. TNIE could verify that one of the 15 popular applications which received a show cause notice, Probo, has enabled geofencing (location restriction) for users in Tamil Nadu. The official said that the firms had proactively taken this step after the TNOGA notices, as they may not have wanted to risk their entire website/app offering other games getting banned in Tamil Nadu. According to official sources, some of the opinion trading platforms which have received notices from TNOGA include Probo, MPL and SportsBaazi. They were all flagged for allowing opinion trading. Probo and SportsBaazi recently shut operations in Haryana after the state introduced the Prevention of Public Gambling Act, 2025. Chhattisgarh too banned opinion trading apps recently. This development also comes a month after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had issued a warning against opinion trading platforms. 'In some cases, opinion trading platforms are designed in a manner so as to resemble an investment platform as they use terminologies such as profits, stop loss, trading, etc., which are terms closely associated with trades in securities. In view of the above, investors are advised to note that in general, opinion trading does not fall within regulatory purview of SEBI, as what is traded is not security,' the SEBI warning said.
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Supreme Court stays proceedings against Opinion Trading
In a major relief for opinion trading platforms, the Supreme Court has asked Chhattisgarh and Gujarat High Courts to pause the hearings of PILs before them. PILs had been filed before the two courts challenging the validity of opinion trading as games of skill . The Supreme Court's order comes against the backdrop of multiple Public Interest Litigations (PILs) pending in various High Courts across the country, challenging sports engagement gaming formats such as opinion trading and fantasy sports. Notable cases have been heard in the Bombay, Gujarat, and Chhattisgarh High Courts. Recently, Probo approached the Supreme Court asking for all Gujarat and Chhattisgarh PILs to be transferred to the Bombay High court. The transfer is being sought to avoid contradictory orders and save judicial time in hearing similar cases. On 22nd May, the Supreme Court stayed the proceedings and also directed the petitioners in the state PILs to be heard before it. Opinion trading has gained prominence in India over the past few years, driven by a growing consumer appetite for interactive, real-time participation in sports and gaming formats. Some of the key platforms in this emerging space include Probo, Sports Baazi, and MPL Opinio, which are tapping into the demand for predictive, engagement-based experiences. AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Indian Express
26-05-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Opinion trading site TradeX shuts down real money gaming operations
Opinion trading platform TradeX has shut down its real-money gaming operations, with the company moving to a free-to-play, casual social gaming platform. The shutdown comes amid growing regulatory scepticism over opinion trading sites. In a blog post, TradeX said that the shut down was on account of 'heavy' 28 per cent Goods and Services Tax (GST) on online gaming platforms, which 'favours bigger players and made growth and profitability difficult'. Opinion trading platforms provide their users or participants a platform to trade or enter into arrangements wherein the payout is dependent on the outcome of a yes/no proposition of happening or not happening of the underlying event. Apart from TradeX, the sector in India has companies like Gurugram-based Probo and MPL Opinio. While the former offers questions on a varied set of sectors like sports, elections and cryptocurrency, the latter only deals with questions related to cricket matches. These platforms allow participants to earn money by investing in their predictions on any sports, political, weather, or crypto events. Participants can bet on any event based on their predictions. If the predictions are correct, a participant makes money, and in case the prediction goes wrong they lose. TradeX's shut down comes at a time of growing scrutiny into the so called opinion trading segment. Earlier this month, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) cautioned investors against dealing with such platforms. 'Since none of the platforms providing opinion trading can qualify to be recognised stock exchange, and are neither registered or regulated by SEBI, any trading of securities on them is illegal (in case some of the opinions traded qualify as security),' it said.
Mint
23-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Haryana bans opinion trading apps
Haryana has banned opinion trading apps that allow betting on future events retrospectively from 9 April, according to an official Gazette notification reviewed by Mint. Prompted by a public interest litigation and subsequent high court intervention, the move renders platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and MPL Opinio illegal within the state. The state government ordered the ban under its Prevention of Public Gambling Act, 2025. This month, the Chhattisgarh High Court also directed geo-blocking of platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and MPL Opinio within the state, though it allowed them to operate elsewhere in the country. While companies did not immediately respond to media queries, MPL Opinio stopped operations in Haryana earlier this week — before the formal notification bringing the law into force. Though the Act exempts games of skill, it leaves out formats like fantasy sports, raising concerns over legal ambiguity. The Haryana Prevention of Public Gambling Bill, 2025 is aimed at curbing public gambling, including betting on sports and elections. One of the key provisions of the Act targets match-fixing and spot-fixing in sports, making such offences punishable with a minimum of three years' imprisonment, which may extend to five years, along with a fine of no less than ₹ 5 lakh. Repeat offenders face harsher penalties, with imprisonment of up to seven years. However, while the Act was enacted earlier, it has only now been notified. Previously, the Securities and Exchange Board of India also distanced itself from the opinion trading ecosystem, stating that such platforms do not fall under its regulatory purview. Despite lingering legal ambiguity, the opinion trading space continues to thrive. Industry estimates suggest that over 50 million users now engage with such platforms, generating nearly ₹ 50,000 crore in annual transaction volumes, with projected revenues of ₹ 1,000 crore for FY25. Leading platforms like Probo have attracted significant investor interest, raising $28 million from names such as Peak XV Partners, Elevation Capital, and The Fundamentum Partnership. TradeX counts Y Combinator among its backers, while SportsBaazi, originally a fantasy sports operator, has ventured into opinion trading—highlighting the sector's growing appeal. The Haryana law broadly defines a "bet" as any agreement—oral, written, or otherwise—between parties on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event with an uncertain outcome, where incorrect predictions result in the loss or payment of a monetary or non-monetary stake.
