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Commentary: Israel-Iran conflict exposes frailties of Tehran's regime
SINGAPORE: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has not only set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, it has also exposed the frailties of the regime that has governed the country for 46 years.
Since the Islamic revolution in 1979 that overthrew the much-despised monarchy, the regime has exercised complete domination over religion, security and society. Externally, it built proxy regimes and militias to expand its influence which were seen as threats not just by Israel but also Iran's Arab neighbours.
This profile of Iran as a powerful state with a formidable military and militias now lays shattered. First, Israel decimated Iranian proxies in the Middle East in response to the 7 Oct, 2023 terror attack.
Over the last two weeks, it has bombed Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure and killed its military leadership with impunity. What Israel started was finished by the United States when it bombed the most secure of Iran's nuclear sites, rendering them unusable – for now.
The exact damage to Iran's nuclear programme will only be clear in time. But the conflict has shown that Iran's defences are weak and its ability to respond for an extended period of time is limited. It also shows Iran is not as formidable a regional power that it is perceived to be. It appears more like neighbouring Iraq under Saddam Hussein - more bark than bite.
Iran also has limited support from traditional allies Russia and China. The former is embroiled in a war with Ukraine and the latter's interests in the Middle East are economic and energy, not security. Even if the two provide Iran material support, it will be quite limited.
CAN THE REGIME SURVIVE?
For now, the immediate focus of the international community is ensuring a sustainable ceasefire. No one wants a protracted war, though it is almost certain that the US will continue to maintain strong deterrence in the region.
A ceasefire also ensures that the Straits of Hormuz remains open, reducing the risks of supply disruptions and volatile prices. This is good for Singapore and the wider region, including China which is one of Iran's biggest energy importers.
When negotiations resume, Iran's immediate asks will be less about its nuclear programme and more about ensuring Isreal is reigned in. In the background, however, ensuring the regime's survival will be paramount.
Regime change was not a stated goal when Israel launched its attacks, but it may well be an unintended consequence. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled Iran since the death of leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.
In the 36 years, the conservative Khamenei has consolidated power through the control of clerics who exercise authority over Iranian society and function as gatekeepers with veto over who contests elections. He has also used domestic security apparatus to silence critics and crush revolts, such as the 2022 protests against mandatory hijab rules for Iranian women.
Under Khamenei's rule and numerous international sanctions, Iran's economy has also suffered. Despite controlling one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, Iran suffers from mass unemployment and inflation. Added to that is rampant corruption by the clerics, military and the government.
Together, these factors have significantly reduced the support that the regime once enjoyed after the revolution in 1979.
Also not gone unnoticed - especially by Iranian youth - are changes in the region. United Arab Emirates and Qatar are now prosperous, globally integrated countries that were once far behind Iran. The rapid changes in regional rival Saudi Arabia, which has replaced exporting Wahhabism with attracting billions in international capital to transform the kingdom, makes Iran appear even more outdated and regressive.
REFORM OR STATUS QUO
Change will come; just how is yet unclear. One scenario is for the West to force Iran to democratise, the West's many failed "national building" experiments notwithstanding. A group of Iranian dissidents are lobbying for this option, including the descendent of the last Shah of Iran.
However, no Iranian, no matter how opposed they are to the regime, will welcome a group that's seen in the pocket of the West and Israel.
A more realistic option is to engineer or encourage a change in leadership while preserving the Islamic republic. The 86-year-old Khamenei is said to be in ill health and has no designated successor. While his appointment is for life and he was only appointed because his predecessor died, Khamenei can step aside on health grounds.
Reuters recently reported that plans to name a replacement have accelerated. Khamenei would want a like-minded replacement such as his 56-year-old son Mojtaba or another hardline cleric with the backing of the military.
But it is also possible that the three-member committee vetting candidates may exercise pragmatism – for the regime's survival – and propose a more liberal alternative, thus strengthening the hands of the reformists who have long advocated change. One such option is Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, who is reportedly close to the reformers.
