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AFP
13-05-2025
- Politics
- AFP
Philippine polling firm disowns 'local election survey' graphics
"Former President Rodrigo Duterte who is currently detained in Hague, Netherlands (sic) is still leading in the latest Pulse Asia 2025 Electoral Preference Survey in Davao City from April 26 to May 6," reads a Facebook post on May 9. Another post claims to share Pulse Asia Research poll numbers for central Cebu province's race for governor and appears to show candidate Pamela Baricuatro massively leading incumbent Gwen Garcia. Image Screenshot of the false Facebook posts, taken on May 12, 2025 Some 18,000 seats were up for grabs in the mid-term elections largely defined by the explosive feud between President Ferdinand Marcos and impeached Vice President Sara Duterte (archived link). The 12 senators chosen will form half the jury in Duterte's trial tentatively set for July that could see her permanently barred from public office. Her father ex-president Rodrigo Duterte -- detained in The Hague for a crimes against humanity charge -- remains on the ballot in his family's southern stronghold of Davao city where he is seeking to retake his former job as mayor. An initial tally showed the 80-year-old former leader has won in a landslide. is currently leading Garcia w The circulating graphics, however, are not from Pulse Asia Research according to the organisation. "We strongly denounce any unauthorized use of our name to disseminate false or misleading information," reads a statement posted on its website May 9 which disowned the purported Davao city survey as well as several other local poll results (archived link). Ronald Holmes, the organisation's president, separately said on Facebook they "did not conduct any survey in Cebu province" (archived link). Keyword searches on the official website and verified Facebook page of Pulse Asia Research found no such surveys (archived here and here). The circulating graphics also do not match the format of the firm's survey publications which include the full names of candidates and indicate the question that respondents were asked (archived link). Image Screenshot comparison of the false post (L) and a genuine Pulse Asia Research survey with inconsistencies highlighted Moreover, the alleged Davao city survey only lists two rivals for former president Duterte for the mayoral race but Comelec's website says five candidates are vying for the seat. Image Screenshot showing Comelec's list of candidates for Davao city mayor
Asia Times
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Asia Times
Duterte surges as Marcos flags ahead of crucial midterm polls
As the Philippines heads toward pivotal midterm elections on May 12, a dramatic political shift is underway. Once considered the crown prince of dynastic restoration, President Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr is now floundering, with his public approval rating plummeting from 42% in February to 25% in March, according to a Pulse Asia Research poll. Meanwhile, Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of the now-detained former strongman leader Rodrigo Duterte, is rising in the electorate's eye, up from 52% in February to 59% in March, the same poll showed. The arrest and extradition of Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague earlier this year on charges of crimes against humanity during his bloody war on drugs was a seismic moment in Philippine politics. While many in the international community lauded the move as a step toward accountability for thousands of unpunished extrajudicial killings, its domestic reception has been mixed. For many Filipinos, particularly in Mindanao and Duterte strongholds across the Visayas, the spectacle of a former president being tried abroad rather than at home has stirred nationalist resentment. So far, it appears this Western international intervention, aided and abetted by Marcos Jr's government, has bolstered, not weakened, Sara Duterte's political standing. She has deftly positioned herself as the inheritor of her father's political mantle while avoiding his excesses. And the symbolism of her defending national sovereignty—by implication, if not explicitly—has endeared her to a Filipino public weary of foreign moralizing and elite Manila politics. This puts the Marcos Jr administration in a bind. What was likely intended as a triumphant moment of legal reckoning has, in practice, sparked a backlash. In the eyes of many, the Hague trial is less about Rodrigo Duterte and more about a state that is increasingly perceived as unstable and externally manipulated. The many reasons for Marcos Jr's fading popularity are empirical and deeply felt on the ground. First, a cost-of-living crisis continues to batter ordinary Filipinos, with Rice, sugar, and basic utility prices all surging. Despite lofty promises of ushering in a 'golden age of agriculture,' Marcos—who controversially appointed himself as agriculture secretary—has wholly failed to tame inflation, curb smuggling cartels or ensure food security. His symbolic decision to consolidate executive and agricultural power, once seen as bold, now looks like a lost gamble. Second, critics say the Marcos administration's governance has become a masterclass in inertia. They argue Cabinet factionalism, elite-level indecision and growing policy contradictions have crippled the state's response to mounting multiple crises. The rollout of the Maharlika Investment Fund—touted as a vehicle for national development—has been derailed by concerns over corruption and political patronage. It has become emblematic of how the Marcos administration speaks of modernization while practicing corrupt old patterns. Third, the Marcos family itself is showing signs of internal disarray. Senator Imee Marcos, the president's sister, has publicly distanced herself from Marcos Jr's key policies, including Maharlika and his overt foreign military alignment with the US over China. Their family split has not gone unnoticed by provincial power brokers. More damaging, the narrative of Marcos exceptionalism—revived during the 2022 campaign—has begun to crumble under the weight of unmet expectations and unresolved historical grievances. This loss of confidence is not confined to Metro Manila's chattering classes. Across the Ilocos Region—once a Marcos bastion—local leaders are beginning to hedge their bets, with some quietly aligning with emerging camps loyal to Vice President Sara Duterte. Her 58% approval rating, twice as high as Marcos Jr's, is no fluke. While she shares the Duterte name, Sara has managed to distance herself from her father's cruder populism, carving out a more pragmatic executive image rooted in her Davao mayoral years. Unlike Marcos, Sara Duterte has avoided symbolic overreach. Her performance as Education Secretary—though criticized early on—has stabilized, with targeted investments in rural schools and curriculum reforms drawing quiet praise. Her strength lies not just in competence but in emotional resonance. While Marcos projects elitism and nostalgia, Duterte offers something closer to everyday resolve. Her Davao background and Mindanao base give her authenticity in a political landscape where central Luzon and Metro Manila elites often appear tone-deaf to provincial problems and struggles, especially among the poor. The 2028 presidential election looms large over this month's midterms. The Duterte camp is already positioning Sara as the natural successor to Marcos Jr, with a growing coalition of governors, mayors and legislators rallying to her side. By law, Marcos Jr is limited to one six-year term. If her allies perform well in the midterms, Sara Duterte will not only control Congress but also command the political narrative heading into the next presidential race. In contrast, the Marcos Jr camp increasingly appears bereft of an overarching strategy. Rumors of an Imee Marcos candidacy, which could be credibly crafted as different from her brother's now floundering government, are already beginning to surface, with some suggesting a Marcos versus Duterte presidential duel is nearly inevitable in 2028. If not, there is still a large clan of Marcoses to choose from if Imee doesn't get the nod from her family. This Marcos versus Duterte blood feud is more than personal: it is regional and ideological. The Marcos clan's strength is concentrated in the north, especially Ilocos and parts of Luzon. The Dutertes, on the other hand, command the south, with deep support in Mindanao and the Visayas. The two dynasties embody competing narratives of national identity and governance – one rooted in aristocratic restoration, the other in populist pragmatism. And herein lies the simmering political tension. Unlike previous political rivalries that eventually gave way to fragile coalitions, the Marcos-Duterte conflict shows no signs of accommodation. Their core constituencies are regionally insulated, emotionally committed and mutually distrustful. The rivalry is not merely electoral—it is generational, and possibly even existential. Foreign actors, namely the US and China, are no longer peripheral, despite assumptions to the contrary. In early April, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief, General Romeo Brawner, publicly warned of alleged Chinese political interference. Though specifics are lacking, the warning signaled a growing belief within the Philippine security establishment that the country's internal divisions may be exploited by foreign powers—not least at this month's mid-term elections. Marcos Jr is viewed as strongly aligned with the US and West, while the Dutertes lean toward China. As such, the May 12 midterm elections will serve not only as a referendum on Marcos's leadership but as a test of national resilience against both domestic fragmentation and foreign entanglement. If Sara Duterte's allies capture a majority in Congress and the Senate, the Marcos presidency could become a lame duck with a full three years to go. If the Marcos camp suffers heavy electoral losses, it will mark not just a political miscalculation but perhaps the collapse of a dynasty's dream of full rehabilitation. The stakes couldn't be higher at the upcoming polls, where family, memory and vengeance will all factor in a crucial vote.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Fabricated opinion poll spreads prior to Philippine mid-term elections
The purported poll of voters' preferences in Palawan's first congressional district was shared as a graphic on Facebook on April 20, 2025. The survey is attributed to polling outfit Pulse Asia Research, and was supposedly conducted between April 10 and 15 (archived link). According to the graphic, Rosalie Salvame -- widow of the district's incumbent representative -- is leading former congressman Franz Alvarez (archived here and here). Salvame's husband -- Edgardo Salvame -- died on March 13, 2024. The house speaker has since been designated as legislative caretaker (archived link). In an interview with a local radio station, Salvame said she was running to "continue what [her husband] started in our town" (archived link). The graphic was also shared elsewhere on Facebook. "Mommy Rose Salvame for the win," read a comment on one of the posts. Another said: "Mommy Rose Salvame deserves this, she's a grateful and kind woman." But a keyword search for the purported polling data on Palawan's first congressional district did not yield any results. Pulse Asia Research chair Ronald Holmes also said his organisation did not conduct the purported survey. "Not ours," he told AFP on April 25. The group's latest available election survey was conducted in late March for senator and party-list candidates (archived link). The graphic circulating online appears to have been put together using the "VotePH2025" logo from the Philippine broadsheet Inquirer's election coverage (archived link). The falsely shared graphic is not featured on either the election site, the Inquirer website or the broadsheet's official Facebook page (archived here and here). AFP has debunked other misinformation in the lead up to the mid-term elections here.
AFP
29-04-2025
- Politics
- AFP
Fabricated opinion poll spreads prior to Philippine mid-term elections
The purported poll of voters' preferences in Palawan's first congressional district was shared as a graphic on Facebook on April 20, 2025. The survey is attributed to polling outfit Pulse Asia Research, and was supposedly conducted between April 10 and 15 (archived link). According to the graphic, Rosalie Salvame -- widow of the district's incumbent representative -- is leading former congressman Franz Alvarez (archived here and here). Salvame's husband -- Edgardo Salvame -- died on March 13, 2024. The house speaker has since been designated as legislative caretaker (archived link). In an interview with a local radio station, Salvame said she was running to "continue what [her husband] started in our town" (archived link). Image Screenshot of false Facebook post, captured on April 27, 2025 The graphic was also shared elsewhere on Facebook. "Mommy Rose Salvame for the win," read a comment on one of the posts. Another said: "Mommy Rose Salvame deserves this, she's a grateful and kind woman." But a keyword search for the purported polling data on Palawan's first congressional district did not yield any results. Pulse Asia Research chair Ronald Holmes also said his organisation did not conduct the purported survey. "Not ours," he told AFP on April 25. The group's latest available election survey was conducted in late March for senator and party-list candidates (archived link). The graphic circulating online appears to have been put together using the "VotePH2025" logo from the Philippine broadsheet Inquirer's election coverage (archived link). Image Screenshot comparison of the falsely shared graphic (left) and the Inquirer's election logo (right) The falsely shared graphic is not featured on either the election site, the Inquirer website or the broadsheet's official Facebook page (archived here and here). AFP has debunked other misinformation in the lead up to the mid-term elections here.
