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LeMonde
3 days ago
- Politics
- LeMonde
'The simultaneous rise of the far right and persistently sluggish growth in Europe is striking'
This is not a tidal wave, but rather a slow and steady advance. From south to north, far-right parties are making progress across Europe. If current trends continue, a particularly cynical statistician might hazard the following prediction: Within five to 10 years, Nigel Farage (Reform UK) will be in power in the United Kingdom, Alice Weidel (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) in Germany and Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National, RN) in France. A grim but unlikely trio? Not so sure. The magnitude of the phenomenon – which should preoccupy both center-right and center-left parties – demands attention. How did this happen? And why? The latest elections have been telling. In Poland, Portugal and Romania, protest-driven far-right parties have come close to first or second place. In early May, during a series of local elections in England, Reform UK dealt a defeat to Labour under Prime Minister Keir Starmer and outpaced the opposition Conservatives, the Tories, led by Kemi Badenoch. Brexit in 2016 failed to deliver on any of its promises – in fact, quite the opposite – but one of its most notorious standard-bearers, Farage, has returned to the heart of British politics. In France, the Rassemblement National is the party with the largest number of MPs in the Assemblée Nationale – and is best positioned for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. On a national-populist, euroskeptic and Putin-friendly platform, Robert Fico once again heads the Slovak government. In Northern Europe, protest movements sometimes take part in governing coalitions. In Italy, far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck a shrewd balance: tough on immigration, pro-European, supportive of Ukraine and on good terms with Donald Trump. Frequent hostility toward the EU The image of a uniform rise of the far right, with the same causes and actors defending the same agenda, must be qualified. National differences matter. The cocktail of right-wing populism is mixed differently from one country to another. The sense of being outnumbered by immigrants is often assumed to be universal. Yet Romania and Slovakia, for example, suffer more from emigration than immigration.
Yahoo
05-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Indigenous solidarity and silence for Palestine
Leslie LoganSenecaLast week marked the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a war that drew attention and wide-spread support for Ukraine from all corners of the globe. The blue and yellow flag was everywhere and declarations of 'We Stand with Ukraine' proliferated in a fervor – and then subsided significantly. Now, with a second Putin-friendly Trump administration bullying Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, support for Ukraine has been revived. Politics fuels and dulls the national attention span and capacity for compassion for those suffering under unrelenting military campaigns. In the case of the war in Gaza few tribal statements supporting Palestinians have been made despite grave losses, dramatic destruction, a humanitarian crisis, Israeli abdication of war conventions and civil society norms, and the hard-to-miss historic parallels with Native month-old, three-phase ceasefire in Gaza has been called fragile. Underscoring ongoing threats, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect posted, 'The ceasefire agreement offers a glimmer of hope for a permanent cessation of hostilities in Gaza, but the risk of ethnic cleansing, war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide remains high.' Although hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are returning to their homes, the conditions are described as unlivable. President Donald Trump has threatened to permanently remove all Palestinians to make way for a 'Riviera of the Middle East,' diminishing hope for Associated Press reported that Raji Sourani, a leading human rights lawyer from Gaza, accused Trump of aiming to 'complete the genocide.' Geneva Conventions forbid 'mass forcible transfers' from occupied lands 'regardless of their motive.' The International Criminal Court — where the US and Israel are not members — also holds that 'forcible transfer' can be a war crime or, in some circumstances, a crime against humanity. By all accounts, Palestinians are far from safe, stable ground with new threats of 574 federally recognized tribes only five have expressed support for Palestine since Oct. 7, 2023. Calls for a permanent ceasefire were made by the Oglala Lakota Sioux, Cheyenne River Lakota, Winneman Wintu, Yurok, Red Lake Band of Chippewa, and the Oceti Sakowin Treaty Council – which represents a collective of almost 50 tribes. Diné activists urged Navajo president Buu Nygren to call for a ceasefire, but he seemingly backed down to avoid upsetting Raytheon Technologies RTX, the world's largest missile manufacturer. The Navajo Nation is home to the Raytheon Diné Facility which builds and stores parts for Tomahawk cruise missiles, Javelin weapon systems, and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. NDN Collective, an Indigenous advocacy organization out of Rapid City, South Dakota, and Red Nations, out of Arizona called for a ceasefire and an end to US military aid to Solidarity with Palestine, created an online effort obtaining 1,122 signatures for an Indigenous solidarity letter of early November 2023, Coast Salish people took to their canoes in the Port of Tacoma blocking ships believed to be carrying weapons to Israeli forces. That November, Native activists marched in the Free Palestine Ceasefire Rally in Washington, DC. In Cultural Survival, Nick Tilsen, the president and chief executive officer of NDN Collective, stated, 'Indigenous voices have become especially prominent in support of Palestine in a spirit of kinship.' Tilsen, Oglala Lakota and Jewish, said, 'Sometimes when I talk to Indigenous leaders here, they'll be like, 'Gaza, that's happening all the way over there in the Middle East. Why should I say anything?' I reassure them that our priority is and will always be here, fighting for the return of Indigenous lands to the Indigenous Peoples of the United States. But it's important to see how the U.S. has been directly funding the Israeli military — in the billions, for decades — as it commits genocide on the Palestinian people with resources extracted from our stolen lands.' He continued, 'Do we stand quietly as these people are being murdered? Or, do we step into our courage and bravery, aligned with our values, even when it's not popular to do so?'Many Native people who have publicly supported Palestine have been verbally attacked and accused of Allard, Sault Ste. Marie Chippewa, was one of the few Native OpEds writing, 'If I say crushing Palestinian children into unrecognizable shapes via airstrikes is inhumane, I am anti-Semitic, supporting terrorism, enemy to America. If I say Israeli children, stacked in piles or captured by Hamas is horrific, I am colonialist, pro-Zionist, Islamophobic. I am neither. I am a Native American, Marine Corps Veteran, mental health professional decrying the unjust and criminal nature of war.' Indigenous students across the country engaged in college campus protests, an April 2024 story discussed those. Portland State students and local communities organized a powwow to bring attention to the plight of Palestinians. The Portland State University students stated: 'As Indigenous peoples of this land, we recognize the deep parallels between our struggles for justice and the plight of Palestinian people.' At Cornell University Indigenous students protested, held vigils and discussions in an encampment calling for a ceasefire and for university divestment from companies supporting Israel's military campaign. As told in Rematriation, Native students also held a four-day fast for Palestine. Many campus protests were peaceful, but others caused disruption. At the start of fall 2024, many universities developed policies to quell student protests, minimizing opposition and imposing stiff punishments even for candlelight vigils and silent study-ins. In September 2024 The National ran a story describing Indigenous Americans as 'emerging as an important internal voice against the US government's support for Israel.' Two articles by non-Native writers in the Palestine Chronicle illustrate Indigenous peoples' identification with the Palestinian experience relating the U.S. history of settler colonialism and removal policies with Israeli land theft, Palestinian expulsion, oppression, and genocide. At the Democratic National Convention in August 2024, Native people participated in protests and panels in support of Palestine. The headline in Native News Online read: 'Natives for Palestine, 'We understand genocide.''The national Native radio talk show Native America Calling discussed Indigenous perspectives on the war in Gaza. The panel of guests shared the pushback, hostilities, and allegations of antisemitism they encountered while supporting Palestine and naming the genocide occuring there. Panelist Chase Iron Eyes, Oglala Lakota, was asked about tribes speaking out. Iron Eyes said, 'I've been looking for it and I can't find it from the National Congress of American Indians. We should be asking why tribal leaders aren't speaking out.'The National Congress of American Indians, the leading tribal advocacy organization, gives a State of Indian Nations address at their annual convention, the largest gathering of tribal leaders in the country. The NCAI Youth Commission also gives a State of Indian Youth. The youth address, guaranteed in the bylaws, typically affords youth the opportunity to voice concerns, issues, and challenges they face. Last February 2024, my daughter Yanenowi Logan, a Cornell senior at the time, was the President of the Youth Commission and prepared the youth address expressing solidarity with Palestine and the need for broader support from Indian Country. NCAI executives and legal counsel first pulled the youth speech from the program, then conceded to keep it; mindful of the bylaws They privately opposed the content and held hours-long meetings in which executives and tribal leaders scolded the youth commission, and subtly suggested the tenor and focus of the speech be changed. One attorney suggested the youth's views were antisemitic. In the end, Yanenowi gave her address expressing the need for Indian Country to support Palestinians and Indigenous people globally who are suffering removal and oppression – but it wouldn't have happened without an internal skirmish defending their have big fish to fry fighting the state and feds to protect and maintain what is ours. Native communities have unique challenges and sometimes inadequate resources to address serious problems. But our daily obstacles are mere nuisances next to what Palestinians have endured for years. It is 2025 and while we are scrolling on our phones, stress-eating, and bracing ourselves for the next outrageous, merciless Trump edict, Palestinians go hungry in caves. Since Trump 2.0 took office everyone in this country, including 20-year veterans working in the federal government, three-time Trump voters who lost their jobs in the past few days – we're all at the mercy of the category-5 shitstorm ginned up by Trump, Elon Musk and a bystander Congress. Indian Country has – by necessity – quickly become more unified to protect tribal sovereignty, treaty rights, and to marshal a collective defense of federal funding for essential programs and services such as health, housing, and education. It is no wonder then, with all the havoc and uncertainty unleashed, it is increasingly difficult for people to see past the daily crush of news instilling instability and fear, sidelining support for Palestine and to Al Jazeera the Palestinian death toll since October 7, 2024, is 61,709, with 17,498 being children. January data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the World Health Organization and the Palestinian government show Israeli attacks have damaged almost all of Gaza's homes (damaged or destroyed), 80 percent of commercial facilities, 88 percent of school buildings, 68 percent of roads, 68 percent of cropland, leaving only 50 percent of hospitals partially functional.'No Other Land'I recently saw the film 'No Other Land,' a documentary about the Palestinian expulsion from Masafer Yatta in the West Bank. I saw it at a small independent theater in Ithaca, New York, three hours from my home because it is not showing anywhere nearby. A New York Times article explained that no U.S. studio will touch it. With the documentary winning the Academy Award, maybe now it will get wider distribution.I left the theater feeling sick. And helpless. It was difficult to watch. Basel Adra, a young Palestinian, has used the only weapon he has, a camera, to document the Israeli military's relentless attacks that have leveled his small village. He began documenting the gradual chipping away of humanity and dismantling of his community six years ago – well before Oct. 7. He shows the Israeli forces' slow-moving bulldozers crackling down dry dirt roads, moving in to demolish homes. Villagers are required to obtain permits to rebuild and are denied those. They are forced to take what few worldly belongings they have and shelter in mountainside caves. Then we see the bulldozing of their goat and sheep pens. The Israelis take their cars. And then they come for their the Israeli military bulldozers crush their chicken coops. Another day comes and they flatten their latrines. Then gun-toting troops clear out children from the school and while the frightened children and teachers stand by watching, their school is reduced to rubble. There are shootings; people are killed, injured, paralyzed, and jailed for simply trying to live, survive, and protect the ground beneath their feet. There are daily and then nightly raids and unending terrorism unleashed on non-combatant civilians; unarmed families who refuse to be driven out of their Yatta is effectively an open-air prison, a place they cannot leave; yet Israeli forces are trained to beat them down and run them out. Twenty years ago an apartheid road system was enacted by law. Palestinians are barred from driving on 40 percent of the roads in the West Bank. There are Jewish-only roads and if Palestinians are fortunate enough to have vehicles, they are not permitted to travel outside of their rapidly eroding village. In 2006, the law further restricted Palestinian movement. It is against the law to transport Palestinian passengers in Israeli-driven, Israeli-plated cars without a special permit. While watching the mounting devastation on film, I kept it together until the soldiers arrived with chainsaws and cut the water lines then drove in cement trucks, filling their water wells with concrete. At that point I could no longer contain the tears I had been choking down. My body shook as I released audible sobs in the dark as the wreckage peaked in the flickering light of film. I could hear others in the theater too had reached their breaking point. As the credits rolled, I lingered as the lights came up. The film left me anguished, short of breath asking: What can we do?I couldn't help but think of my Seneca ancestors and what they went through when George Washington ordered the Sullivan-Clinton Campaign in a scorched-earth military mission to eradicate Haudenosaunee villages from central New York in 1779. No one was spared the sword or musket: women, children, elders were killed. Longhouses were burned to the ground, orchards and cornfields were torched. This was a deliberate, unannounced, forced removal in the name of Manifest Destiny; a superior entitlement to land and live in a world that is being ripped apart on many levels by an administration with a similar scorched-earth agenda that doesn't care about its own people, much less Native people. President Trump cares even less about the oppressed people of Palestine whose lives are literally in we are at the mercy of a regime determined to decimate the department of education, ignore the Constitution, run roughshod over laws and social norms, and presumably, eventually our treaties too, as though this hasn't already happened–we are still far better off than Palestinians. We are fortunate, privileged, virtually unaffected by the gruesome brutality, inhumanity, and torment inflicted half a world away. We can turn off the news, selectively scroll over feeds, pop in earbuds and tune out the world.I am reminded of what Colson Whitehead's character Curtis Elwood said in Nickel Boys. Elwood said, 'If everybody looks the other way, then everybody's in on it.'The phrase 'the power of the pen' used to mean something. In our Indigenous communities we talk about speaking truth to power. Given our history of removal and dispossession, we fist-pump self-determination and land back movements. We honor our ancestors who resisted and fought so we could be here November 2024, Nick Estes, Lower Brule Oglala Lakota/Jewish, an assistant professor of American Indian Studies at the University of Minnesota wrote: 'The United States has clamped down on its own educational system, banning books teaching its true settler colonial history, while brutalizing college students and cracking down on educators opposing its genocide against Palestinians. And yet there is still hope for justice.'Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remain resolute about staying on their lands. They are not giving up, just like our ancestors refused to give have been some Indigenous voices that have stood up in solidarity with Palestine– plenty of Native students on college campuses, and six tribes. But with 568 tribes staying quiet, mostly there has been resounding silence throughout Indian Country; and a clear discomfort within the ranks of the largest national Native collective of tribal leaders. That voice has been noticeably, painfully silent as Palestinians fight to keep their feet on their lands–just like we is a George Saunders short story, 'Love Letter', written in 2022 that serves as a cautionary tale of the dangers of passivity and the need for resistance. The grandfather in the story writes a letter to his grandson. The times are terrifyingly bleak–perhaps prescient–under a tightly controlled kind of police state. There is a double-edged message the grandfather sends: lay low and stay safe, and yet what might we do? Dangerous times unfold when resistance is neutralized by fear, despair, and indifference.I ask myself: What can we do? How can I make a difference? As Adra has taken up his camera, I have only my keyboard. I cannot stay quiet. Unlike the grandfather in 'Love Letter', I will not tell my children to stay silent. Because as with all wars and battles: if we submit, there is much to lose, and an even more constrained and dangerous future the Oscar for the film, Basel Adra said, 'We call on the world to take serious actions to stop the injustice and to stop the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian people.'"No Other Land" should be seen, shared, and talked about. Indigenous eyes should not be averted; impassioned young voices should not be squelched, support for Palestine should not quietly die out. Just as with each and every one of our Native nations–their fight is not over. Leslie Logan, Seneca, has been an occasional contributor to ICT for more than 10 years. She is the former associate director of the American Indian and Indigenous Studies Program at Cornell University. She is a freelance writer, public relations consultant and grassroots community activist currently working on community and youth engagement initiatives for the Seneca Nation. This opinion-editorial essay does not reflect the views of ICT; voices in our opinion section represent a variety of reader points of view. If you would like to contribute an essay to ICT, email opinion@ information about our guidelines: .
The Guardian
26-02-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Friedrich Merz was the most pro-US politician in Germany – his shift could be historic for Europe Jörg Lau for Europe
It is hard to overstate the importance of Friedrich Merz's urgent message to the nation after his win in the German elections. This, after all, is the beginning of a new, dangerous era in European security. It would be his 'absolute priority', Merz said, immediately after victory for the CDU/CSU was confirmed, to create unity in Europe as quickly as possible, 'so that, step by step, we can achieve independence from the US'. He added: 'I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television programme.' Indeed. For the leader of the conservative CDU, a lifelong believer in the transatlantic security alliance, this is a significant reversal. And it is highly personal for Merz: there is hardly a more pro-US politician in Germany than the man who worked for the investment company BlackRock and was the long-serving chairman of the influential lobbying group Atlantik-Brücke (Atlantic Bridge). That makes the unfavourable things the chancellor-elect had to say about the US government all the more remarkable. The interference from Washington in the German election campaign had been 'no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow', Merz said, referring to Elon Musk's ever more frenzied support for the far-right AfD, and to the polemics of the US vice-president, JD Vance, against the CDU's 'firewall' policy, which excludes cooperating with the Putin-friendly party. Germany was under 'massive pressure from two sides', and Donald Trump's government was 'largely indifferent to the fate of Europe', Merz said, warning that it was unclear whether, by the Nato summit in June, 'we will still be talking about Nato in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly'. The unusual frankness of his remarks reflects a deep frustration that has built up in traditionally pro-US conservative circles in Germany, particularly over interference led by Musk and Vance. Their coordinated campaign sought to undercut the centre-right Christian Democrats in favour of the far right in the run-up to the vote. Musk posted a barrage of tweets on his X platform, including some on election day. He has also tweeted his support for one of the most extreme proponents of the AfD, Björn Höcke – a man twice convicted for using Nazi slogans. Even more intrusive were Vance's repeated statements linking the CDU's firewall policy, which keeps the AfD out of power, with the US security guarantee for Europe. The vice-president's menacing message to Germany was: if you continue to exclude the far right from power, the US cannot do much for you. It was heartening to hear the chancellor-elect refute this unprecedented meddling in Germany's affairs. He must know that the vindictive Trump administration will most likely want to make him regret his choice of words. There is an irony here in that Merz had tried his own brand of Trumpism just weeks ago, when he reacted to a string of violent attacks in Germany with the announcement of a tough migration policy that he would enact 'on day one' of his chancellorship. He put pressure on the centre-left parties, the Social Democrats and the Greens. If they refused to support him, he would have no choice but to accept the votes of the far right for his proposals. To the shock of many, Merz's non-binding motion (which included controversial measures such as pushing back all asylum seekers at the border) was passed with the votes of the AfD. That left Merz with a mixed message for the rest of the campaign: he promised radical change but continued to vow non-cooperation with his far-right competition. Mainstream voters who wanted a more restrictive migration policy, but not with the help of the extreme right, were left with doubts: how trustworthy was Merz? Would he do it again? The conservatives' underwhelming result in the election is testimony to his miscalculation. To make matters worse, Merz had opened himself to AfD goading that he lacked the stamina to follow through and form a rightwing majority coalition. Our hand remains outstretched, the AfD co-leader, Alice Weidel, has repeated maliciously since election day, but if you keep shutting us out, we will crush you next time. Expect to hear this tune a lot in the coming weeks. Merz's gambit backfired. His only option now is coalition talks with the diminished Social Democrats. If both parties manage to form a government, it can hardly be called a 'grand coalition' any more. The two 'people's parties' barely add up to a majority in parliament. Yet there is an opportunity that arises from these pressures. The Social Democrats may find it easier to compromise on migration policy when in coalition with the conservatives. The next government urgently needs to exert more control on the border to counter the far-right narrative. Merz's blunt assessment of an emerging post-transatlantic order opens a long overdue debate in Germany. It is, indeed, a head-spinning moment for the country's strategic defence community, a reversal of core beliefs that have guided Germany for the past 80 years. It was the CDU that tied Germany irreversibly to the western alliance. This was a major historical achievement, because it was not at all popular at the time, especially among German conservatives who had habitually been anti-US. Konrad Adenauer, the first postwar chancellor, risked all the political capital he had when he steered a fiercely anti-western and pacifist Germany towards rearmament and Nato membership in 1955. What's more, he rejected the alternative path suggested by the French president, Charles de Gaulle, to opt for a European defence community. Trump has now turned Germany's conviction on its head. All German governments from Adenauer onwards, irrespective of left or right leanings, had argued against the French project of 'European strategic autonomy' for fear that it would weaken Nato. A security partnership with the US was the indispensable guarantee of peace on the continent, the thinking went. But now the US government is calling Nato into question, thereby making a more independent Europe a necessity. The consequences are not confined to the continent. Merz wants to explore closer security cooperation with London, and he already has his eye on the UK's nuclear arsenal, as well as France's. What a turnaround: Germany, once proud of phasing out nuclear energy, is shopping for a new nuclear umbrella. Ironically, these worrying turns might help Merz succeed in forming a coalition with the Social Democrats. Reforming the strict fiscal regime known as the Schuldenbremse, or 'debt brake', has always been a source of friction between them. No more. The rigid limit on borrowing, enshrined in the German constitution, must go. Everybody knows this: there is no way to replace US security protection while upholding a balanced budget. Changing the constitutional debt brake requires a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, which leads to the final irony: Merz will have to make a deal with the parties on the left to win their support for loosening spending. More borrowing for defence, but also for infrastructure investments. Only a conservative could do this, like only Richard Nixon could go to China. There is quite a measure of poetic justice in this development. Merz has gone from flirting with Trumpism to easing Germany's austerity policies in just a matter of weeks. Jörg Lau is an international correspondent for the German weekly Die Zeit
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German conservatives were expecting more from Merz's election victory
The beer was flowing and the applause was loud for the victorious Friedrich Merz at CDU headquarters in Berlin on election night. But the chancellor-in-waiting's triumph was not all it seemed, and the party faithful knew it. 'It's muted,' a diplomatic source at the celebrations told The Telegraph, 'they wanted more.' Germany's conservatives won a 28.52 per cent share in an election with the highest turnout since reunification in 1990. They would have hoped for more than 30 per cent or even 35. Angela Merkel's worst election result in 16 years in power leading the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) was 32.9 per cent. After she stepped down, the party under Armin Laschet won only 24.1 per cent in 2021, leading to Mr Merz's political comeback as leader. The scale of a win matters in German politics, where outright majorities by a single party simply do not happen. Coalitions must be built between parties, with high vote share translating to greater negotiation leverage. It also grants more flexibility in picking and choosing coalition partners. The SPD (Social Democratic Party) posted its worst-ever result, after winning the last election and forming a coalition without the conservatives. The centre-Left party came third with 16.41 per cent, behind the far-Right AfD, which Mr Merz has excluded from negotiations to form a government that he wants ready by Easter. The SPD lost 1.8 million voters to the CDU – but others turned to the hard-Left or the Putin-friendly AfD (Alternative for Germany), which had its best-ever results and will be the main opposition. Mr Merz will need to strike a deal with the SPD but it will exact a heavy price for becoming the junior partner in the grand coalition between Germany's big beasts. The man poised to be the next chancellor has said that the 'red-black coalition' is 'exactly what we want'. Germany's economy is in dire trouble. Mr Merz has promised the medicine of cuts to social programmes such as welfare, and a bonfire of red tape, to reboot it. He promised tax cuts for high earners and business to boost German competitiveness and gave warning that reforms of Germany's generous state pensions might be necessary. All of this is anathema to the SPD, which accused Mr Merz of weakening the 'firewall' against the AfD when he accepted the far-Right's support for a parliamentary resolution on tougher migration rules before the election. On Monday, the SPD fired a warning shot, saying it would try to blunt Mr Merz's manifesto pledges. Klara Geywitz, the SPD's deputy leader, said: 'Friedrich Merz's CDU has presented an election program that would create additional billions in gaps in the already strained budget.' 'In this respect, we are at the beginning of a very difficult process, the outcome of which is still open in my view,' she added. The parties are closer on defence, but finding the money for the military and economy and to build up defence will be a huge and controversial challenge. Mr Merz will be under pressure to reform Germany's constitutional debt brake, which limits public spending. But that is politically explosive, as Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor, found when his efforts to change the rule led to the fall of his coalition government. Jana Puglierin, of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said: 'Both parties want to continue supporting Ukraine militarily, financially and humanitarianly.' She added: 'Nevertheless, less will change here than many think or hope.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
26-02-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
German conservatives were expecting more from Merz's election victory
The beer was flowing and the applause was loud for the victorious Friedrich Merz at CDU headquarters in Berlin on election night. But the chancellor-in-waiting's triumph was not all it seemed, and the party faithful knew it. 'It's muted,' a diplomatic source at the celebrations told The Telegraph, 'they wanted more.' Germany's conservatives won a 28.52 per cent share in an election with the highest turnout since reunification in 1990. They would have hoped for more than 30 per cent or even 35. Angela Merkel's worst election result in 16 years in power leading the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) was 32.9 per cent. After she stepped down, the party under Armin Laschet won only 24.1 per cent in 2021, leading to Mr Merz's political comeback as leader. The scale of a win matters in German politics, where outright majorities by a single party simply do not happen. Coalitions must be built between parties, with high vote share translating to greater negotiation leverage. It also grants more flexibility in picking and choosing coalition partners. The SPD (Social Democratic Party) posted its worst-ever result, after winning the last election and forming a coalition without the conservatives. The centre-Left party came third with 16.41 per cent, behind the far-Right AfD, which Mr Merz has excluded from negotiations to form a government that he wants ready by Easter. The SPD lost 1.8 million voters to the CDU – but others turned to the hard-Left or the Putin-friendly AfD (Alternative for Germany), which had its best-ever results and will be the main opposition. Mr Merz will need to strike a deal with the SPD but it will exact a heavy price for becoming the junior partner in the grand coalition between Germany's big beasts. The man poised to be the next chancellor has said that the 'red-black coalition' is 'exactly what we want'. Germany's economy is in dire trouble. Mr Merz has promised the medicine of cuts to social programmes such as welfare, and a bonfire of red tape, to reboot it. He promised tax cuts for high earners and business to boost German competitiveness and gave warning that reforms of Germany's generous state pensions might be necessary. All of this is anathema to the SPD, which accused Mr Merz of weakening the 'firewall' against the AfD when he accepted the far-Right's support for a parliamentary resolution on tougher migration rules before the election. On Monday, the SPD fired a warning shot, saying it would try to blunt Mr Merz's manifesto pledges. Klara Geywitz, the SPD's deputy leader, said: 'Friedrich Merz's CDU has presented an election program that would create additional billions in gaps in the already strained budget.' 'In this respect, we are at the beginning of a very difficult process, the outcome of which is still open in my view,' she added. The parties are closer on defence, but finding the money for the military and economy and to build up defence will be a huge and controversial challenge. Mr Merz will be under pressure to reform Germany's constitutional debt brake, which limits public spending. But that is politically explosive, as Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor, found when his efforts to change the rule led to the fall of his coalition government. Jana Puglierin, of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said: 'Both parties want to continue supporting Ukraine militarily, financially and humanitarianly.' She added: 'Nevertheless, less will change here than many think or hope.'
